Performance of public private partnerships : an evolutionary perspective

PPPs are held to be a powerful way of mobilising private finance and resources to deliver public infrastructure. Theoretically, research into procurement has begun to acknowledge difficulties with the classification and assessment of different types of procurement, particularly those which do not sufficiently acknowledge variety within specific types of procurement methods. This paper advances a theoretical framework based on an evolutionary economic conceptualisation of a routine, which can accommodate the variety evident in procurement projects, in particular PPPs. The paper tests how the various elements of a PPP, as advanced in the theoretical framework, affect performance across 10 case studies. It concludes, that a limited number of elements of a PPP affect their performance, and provides strong evidence for the theoretical model advanced in this paper.

Monitoring the Performance of Complex Projects from Multiple Perspectives over Multiple Time Frames

When complex projects go wrong they can go horribly wrong with severe financial consequences. We are undertaking research to develop leading performance indicators for complex projects, metrics to provide early warning of potential difficulties. The assessment of success of complex projects can be made by a range of stakeholders over different time scales, against different levels of project results: the project’s outputs at the end of the project; the project’s outcomes in the months following project completion; and the project’s impact in the years following completion. We aim to identify leading performance indicators, which may include both success criteria and success factors, and which can be measured by the project team during project delivery to forecast success as assessed by key stakeholders in the days, months and years following the project. The hope is the leading performance indicators will act as alarm bells to show if a project is diverting from plan so early corrective action can be taken. It may be that different combinations of the leading performance indicators will be appropriate depending on the nature of project complexity. In this paper we develop a new model of project success, whereby success is assessed by different stakeholders over different time frames against different levels of project results. We then relate this to measurements that can be taken during project delivery. A methodology is described to evaluate the early parts of this model. Its implications and limitations are described. This paper describes work in progress.

Explaining International new venture internationalisation: an innovation adoption model

The increasing prevalence of International New Ventures (INVs) during the past twenty years has been highlighted by numerous studies (Knight and Cavusgil, 1996, Moen, 2002). International New Ventures are firms, typically small to medium enterprises, that internationalise within six years of inception (Oviatt and McDougall, 1997). To date there has been no general consensus within the literature on a theoretical framework of internationalisation to explain the internationalisation process of INVs (Madsen and Servais, 1997). However, some researchers have suggested that the innovation diffusion model may provide a suitable theoretical framework (Chetty & Hamilton, 1996, Fan & Phan, 2007).The proposed model was based on the existing and well-established innovation diffusion theories drawn from consumer behaviour and internationalisation literature to explain the internationalisation process of INVs (Lim, Sharkey, and Kim, 1991, Reid, 1981, Robertson, 1971, Rogers, 1962, Wickramasekera and Oczkowski, 2006). The results of this analysis indicated that the synthesied model of export adoption was effective in explaining the internationalisation process of INVs within the Queensland Food and Beverage Industry. Significantly the results of the analysis also indicated that features of the original I-models developed in the consumer behaviour literature, that had limited examination within the internationalisation literature were confirmed. This includes the ability of firms, or specifically decision-makers, to skip stages based om previous experience.

Does chemometrics enhance the performance of electroanalysis?

This review explores the question whether chemometrics methods enhance the performance of electroanalytical methods. Electroanalysis has long benefited from the well-established techniques such as potentiometric titrations, polarography and voltammetry, and the more novel ones such as electronic tongues and noses, which have enlarged the scope of applications. The electroanalytical methods have been improved with the application of chemometrics for simultaneous quantitative prediction of analytes or qualitative resolution of complex overlapping responses. Typical methods include partial least squares (PLS), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and multiple curve resolution methods (MCR-ALS, N-PLS and PARAFAC). This review aims to provide the practising analyst with a broad guide to electroanalytical applications supported by chemometrics. In this context, after a general consideration of the use of a number of electroanalytical techniques with the aid of chemometrics methods, several overviews follow with each one focusing on an important field of application such as food, pharmaceuticals, pesticides and the environment. The growth of chemometrics in conjunction with electronic tongue and nose sensors is highlighted, and this is followed by an overview of the use of chemometrics for the resolution of complicated profiles for qualitative identification of analytes, especially with the use of the MCR-ALS methodology. Finally, the performance of electroanalytical methods is compared with that of some spectrophotometric procedures on the basis of figures-of-merit. This showed that electroanalytical methods can perform as well as the spectrophotometric ones. PLS-1 appears to be the method of practical choice if the %relative prediction error of not, vert, similar±10% is acceptable.

Fingerprinting of complex mixtures with the use of high performance liquid chromatography, inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy and chemometrics

The molecular and metal profile fingerprints were obtained from a complex substance, Atractylis chinensis DC—a traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), with the use of the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES) techniques. This substance was used in this work as an example of a complex biological material, which has found application as a TCM. Such TCM samples are traditionally processed by the Bran, Cut, Fried and Swill methods, and were collected from five provinces in China. The data matrices obtained from the two types of analysis produced two principal component biplots, which showed that the HPLC fingerprint data were discriminated on the basis of the methods for processing the raw TCM, while the metal analysis grouped according to the geographical origin. When the two data matrices were combined into a one two-way matrix, the resulting biplot showed a clear separation on the basis of the HPLC fingerprints. Importantly, within each different grouping the objects separated according to their geographical origin, and they ranked approximately in the same order in each group. This result suggested that by using such an approach, it is possible to derive improved characterisation of the complex TCM materials on the basis of the two kinds of analytical data. In addition, two supervised pattern recognition methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNNs) method, and linear discriminant analysis (LDA), were successfully applied to the individual data matrices—thus, supporting the PCA approach.

A model to predict hypovigilance during a monotonous task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create drowsiness or hypovigilance and impair the ability to react to critical events. Identifying vigilance decrement in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict this vigilance decrement. This pilot study aims to show that vigilance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants’ performance. This task models the driver’s ability to cope with unpredicted events by performing the expected action. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants’ hypovigilance. Driver’s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to an observable variable: the participant’s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important vigilance decline in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

An examination of the relationship between workload and fatigue within and across consecutive days of work: Is the relationshiop static or dynamic?

Cognitive-energetical theories of information processing were used to generate predictions regarding the relationship between workload and fatigue within and across consecutive days of work. Repeated measures were taken on board a naval vessel during a non-routine and a routine patrol. Data were analyzed using growth curve modeling. Fatigue demonstrated a non-monotonic relationship within days in both patrols – fatigue was high at midnight, started decreasing until noontime and then increased again. Fatigue increased across days towards the end of the non-routine patrol, but remained stable across days in the routine patrol. The relationship between workload and fatigue changed over consecutive days in the non-routine patrol. At the beginning of the patrol, low workload was associated with fatigue. At the end of the patrol, high workload was associated with fatigue. This relationship could not be tested in the routine patrol, however it demonstrated a non-monotonic relationship between workload and fatigue – low and high workloads were associated with the highest fatigue. These results suggest that the optimal level of workload can change over time and thus have implications for the management of fatigue.

Internal audit quality, audit committee independence, growth opportunities and firm performance

This study explores whether the relation between internal audit quality and firm performance is associated with firm characteristics of information asymmetry and uncertainty (growth opportunities) and certain governance controls (audit committee effectiveness). The results from this preliminary study of 60 Malaysian companies show that the association between internal audit quality and firm performance is stronger for firms with high growth opportunities and that this positive association is weakened by increasing audit committee independence. These findings demonstrate the internal auditors conflicting roles and question the governance recommendations that require all members of the audit committee to be non-executive directors.

Knowledge discovery for adaptive negotiation agents in e-marketplaces

Intelligent software agents are promising in improving the effectiveness of e-marketplaces for e-commerce. Although a large amount of research has been conducted to develop negotiation protocols and mechanisms for e-marketplaces, existing negotiation mechanisms are weak in dealing with complex and dynamic negotiation spaces often found in e-commerce. This paper illustrates a novel knowledge discovery method and a probabilistic negotiation decision making mechanism to improve the performance of negotiation agents. Our preliminary experiments show that the probabilistic negotiation agents empowered by knowledge discovery mechanisms are more effective and efficient than the Pareto optimal negotiation agents in simulated e-marketplaces.

Innovation adoption and fit, linking R&D and industry

Significant sums of money are invested in developing technological innovations that have low levels and rates of adoption. Several approaches have been put forward in an effort to improve rates of adoption. This paper presents the results of study that examined the innovation fit of key technological innovations in the beef industry. Findings indicate that be assessing the innovation fit throughout the R&D process researchers and end users can collaborate to improve the innovation fit and the rate of adoption. The paper also put forward a model that demonstrates the linkages between R&D, adoption and innovation fit.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Measuring quality : how does this improve construction performance?

The paper charts the history and development of the Hong Kong Housing Department (HKHD) Performance Assessment Scoring System (PASS) from 1990 to the present day and examines its effect on facilitating change to the quality of construction work of building contractors engaged in the production of public sector housing projects Hong Kong. The paper builds partly on empirical research carried out by the author as part of a doctoral thesis from 2000 to 2005, on experiential knowledge and also on some relevant case studies. The outcomes from this earlier research and validation of PASS based on results derived from the system since the research was originally undertaken are of benefit to practitioners and academics working and studying in the areas of performance assessment and organisational culture and change. The conclusions presented in the paper further underpin the connection established in previous research between strong organisational culture and project and corporate success. Organisational culture was measured using a survey instrument originally developed by Denison and Neale (1994), adapted for the environment of the study, and corporate success was measured by the PASS system mentioned above. The major results of the original study indicate that there is significant linkage between strong organisational cultures and business success and the detailed findings were that, (1) strong organisational culture was positively associated a high level of company effectiveness, (2) a high level of company effectiveness was positively associated with the cultural traits of ‘consistency’, ‘adaptability’ and ‘mission’, and (3) a high level of company effectiveness was positively associated with the combined cultural traits represented by the dimensions of ‘external focus’ and ‘stable culture’. Several opportunities to take forward this research have been identified, including extending the study to other countries and also longitudinally re-evaluating some of the original case studies to ascertain how organisational cultures have changed or further developed in relation to the changing construction climate in Hong Kong.

Predicting project performance through neural networks

Successful project delivery of construction projects depends on many factors. With regard to the construction of a facility, selecting a competent contractor for the job is paramount. As such, various approaches have been advanced to facilitate tender award decisions. Essentially, this type of decision involves the prediction of a bidderÕs performance based on information available at the tender stage. A neural network based prediction model was developed and presented in this paper. Project data for the study were obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department. Information from the tender reports was used as input variables and performance records of the successful bidder during construction were used as output variables. It was found that the networks for the prediction of performance scores for Works gave the highest hit rate. In addition, the two most sensitive input variables toward such prediction are ‘‘Difference between Estimate’’ and ‘‘Difference between the next closest bid’’. Both input variables are price related, thus suggesting the importance of tender sufficiency for the assurance of quality production.

Event-related potential (ERP) correlates of impaired visuospatial memory in schizophrenia

Previous studies have reported that patients with schizophrenia demonstrate impaired performance during working memory (WM) tasks. The current study aimed to determine whether WM impairments in schizophrenia are accompanied by reduced slow wave (SW) activity during on-line maintenance of mnemonic information. Event-related potentials were obtained from patients with schizophrenia and well controls as they performed a visuospatial delayed response task. On 50% of trials, a distractor stimulus was introduced during the delay. Compared with controls, patients with schizophrenia produced less SW memory negativity, particularly over the right hemisphere, together with reduced frontal enhancement of SW memory negativity in response to distraction. The results indicate that patients with schizophrenia generate less maintenance phase neuronal activity during WM performance, especially under conditions of distraction.

Working memory correlates of three symptom clusters in schizophrenia

Examined whether discrete working memory deficits underlie positive, negative and disorganised symptoms of schizophrenia. 52 outpatients (mean age 37.5 yrs) with schizophrenia were studied using items drawn from the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Linear regression and correlational analyses were conducted to examine whether symptom dimension scores were related to performance on several tests of working memory function. Severity of negative symptoms correlated with reduced production of words during a verbal fluency task, impaired ability to hold letter and number sequences on-line and manipulate them simultaneously, reduced performance during a dual task, and compromised visuospatial working memory under distraction-free conditions. Severity of disorganisation symptoms correlated with impaired visuospatial working memory under conditions of distraction, failure of inhibition during a verbal fluency task, perseverative responding on a test of set-shifting ability, and impaired ability to judge the veracity of simple declarative statements. The present study provides evidence that the positive, negative and disorganised symptom dimensions of the PANSS constitute independent clusters, associated with unique patterns of working memory impairment.