Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Oxygen precipitation in Czochralski grown silicon heat treated at 525 degrees C

The diffusion of interstitial oxygen In silicon at 525 degrees C is studied using time-of-flight small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) to separate the elastic scattering from oxygen-containing aggregates from the inelastic scattering from neutron-phonon interactions. The growth of oxygen-containing aggregates as a function of time gives a diffusion coefficient, D, calculated from Ham's theory, that is I factor of similar to 3.8 +/- 1.4 times higher than that expected by extrapolation of higher and lower temperature data (D = 0.13 exp(-2.53 eV kT(-1)) cm(2) s(-1)). This result confirms previous observations of enhanced diffusion at intermediate temperatures (400 degrees C-650 degrees C) although the magnitude of the enhancement we find is Much smaller than that reported by some others.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (*2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.

Changes in the global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations

A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform to investigate the uncertainty in the climate response to sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The sulfate burden within the model (and the atmosphere) depends on the balance between formation processes and deposition (wet and dry). The wet removal processes for sulfate aerosol are much faster than dry removal and so any changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, and precipitation will feed back on the sulfate burden. When CO2 is doubled in the Hadley Centre Slab Ocean Model (HadSM3), global mean precipitation increased by 5%; however, the global mean sulfate burden increased by 10%. Despite the global mean increase in precipitation, there were large areas of the model showing decreases in precipitation (and cloud cover) in the Northern Hemisphere during June–August, which reduced wet deposition and allowed the sulfate burden to increase. Further experiments were also undertaken with and without doubling CO2 while including a future anthropogenic sulfur emissions scenario. Doubling CO2 further enhanced the increases in sulfate burden associated with increased anthropogenic sulfur emissions as observed in the doubled CO2-only experiment. The implications are that the climate response to doubling CO2 can influence the amount of sulfate within the atmosphere and, despite increases in global mean precipitation, may act to increase it.

The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

Estimating drizzle drop size and precipitation rate using two-colour lidar measurements

A method to estimate the size and liquid water content of drizzle drops using lidar measurements at two wavelengths is described. The method exploits the differential absorption of infrared light by liquid water at 905 nm and 1.5 μm, which leads to a different backscatter cross section for water drops larger than ≈50 μm. The ratio of backscatter measured from drizzle samples below cloud base at these two wavelengths (the colour ratio) provides a measure of the median volume drop diameter D0. This is a strong effect: for D0=200 μm, a colour ratio of ≈6 dB is predicted. Once D0 is known, the measured backscatter at 905 nm can be used to calculate the liquid water content (LWC) and other moments of the drizzle drop distribution. The method is applied to observations of drizzle falling from stratocumulus and stratus clouds. High resolution (32 s, 36 m) profiles of D0, LWC and precipitation rate R are derived. The main sources of error in the technique are the need to assume a value for the dispersion parameter μ in the drop size spectrum (leading to at most a 35% error in R) and the influence of aerosol returns on the retrieval (≈10% error in R for the cases considered here). Radar reflectivities are also computed from the lidar data, and compared to independent measurements from a colocated cloud radar, offering independent validation of the derived drop size distributions.

Factors governing cellular convection in orographic precipitation

The development of shallow cellular convection in warm orographic clouds is investigated through idealized numerical simulations of moist flow over topography using a cloud-resolving numerical model. Buoyant instability, a necessary element for moist convection, is found to be diagnosed most accurately through analysis of the moist Brunt–Väisälä frequency (N_m) rather than the vertical profile of θ_e. In statically unstable orographic clouds (N_m^2) < 0), additional environmental and terrain-related factors are shown to have major effects on the amount of cellularity that occurs in 2D simulations. One of these factors, the basic-state wind shear, may suppress convection in 2D yet allow for longitudinal convective roll circulations in 3D. The presence of convective structures within an orographic cloud substantially enhanced the maximum rainfall rates, precipitation efficiencies, and precipitation accumulations in all simulations.

An optical study of multiple NEIAL events driven by low energy electron precipitation

Optical data are compared with EISCAT radar observations of multiple Naturally Enhanced Ion-Acoustic Line (NEIAL) events in the dayside cusp. This study uses narrow field of view cameras to observe small-scale, short-lived auroral features. Using multiple-wavelength optical observations, a direct link between NEIAL occurrences and low energy (about 100 eV) optical emissions is shown. This is consistent with the Langmuir wave decay interpretation of NEIALs being driven by streams of low-energy electrons. Modelling work connected with this study shows that, for the measured ionospheric conditions and precipitation characteristics, growth of unstable Langmuir (electron plasma) waves can occur, which decay into ion-acoustic wave modes. The link with low energy optical emissions shown here, will enable future studies of the shape, extent, lifetime, grouping and motions of NEIALs.

Effects of restricted water availability and increased temperature on the grain filling, drying and quality of winter wheat

Experiments in controlled environments examined the effects of the timing and severity of drought, and increased temperature, on grain development of Hereward winter wheat. Environmental effects on grain specific weight, protein content, Hagberg Falling Number, SDS-sedimentation volume, and sulphur content were also studied. Drought and increased temperature applied before the end of grain filling shortened the grain filling period and reduced grain yield, mean grain weight and specific weight. Grain filling was most severely affected by drought between days 1-14 after anthesis. Protein content was increased by stresses before the end of grain growth, because nitrogen harvest index was less severely affected than was dry matter harvest index. Hagberg Falling Number was increased to the greatest extent by stresses applied 15-28 days after anthesis. Treatment effects on grain sulphur content were similar to those on protein content, such that N:S ratio was not significantly affected by drought nor temperature stresses. The effects of restricted water on grain yield and quality were linearly related to soil moisture between 44 and about 73% field capacity (FC) from days 15-28. Drought stress (but not temperature stress) before the end of grain filling decreased SDS-sedimentation volume relative to drought applied later. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Splanchnic metabolism of nitrogenous compounds and urinary nitrogen excretion in steers fed alfalfa under conditions of increased absorption of ammonia and L-arginine supply across the portal-drained viscera

Effects of increased ammonia and/or arginine absorption across the portal-drained viscera (PDV) on net splanchnic (PDV and liver) metabolism of nitrogenous compounds and urinary N excretion were investigated in six cathetenzed Hereford x Angus steers (501 +/- 1 kg BW) fed a 75% alfalfa:25% (as-fed basis) corn-soybean meal diet (0.523 MJ of ME/[kg BW0.15.d]) every 2 h without (27.0 g of N/kg of dietary DM) and with 20 g of urea/kg of dietary DM (35.7 g of N/kg of dietary DM) in a split-plot design. Net splanchnic flux measurements were obtained immediately before beginning and ending a 72-h mesenteric vein infusion of L-arginine (15 mmol/h). For 3 d before and during arginine infusion, daily urine voided was measured and analyzed for N composition. Feeding urea increased PDV absorption (P < 0.01) and hepatic removal (P < 0.01) of ammonia N, accounting for 80% of increased hepatic urea N output (P < 0.01). Numerical increases in net hepatic removal of AA N could account for the remaining portion of increased hepatic urea N output. Arginine infusion increased hepatic arginine removal (P < 0.01) and hepatic urea N output (P < 0.03) and switched hepatic ornithine flux from net uptake to net output (P < 0.01), but numerical changes in net hepatic removal of ammonia and AA N could not account fully for the increase in hepatic urea N output. Increases in urine N excretion equaled quantities of N fed as urea or infused as arginine. Estimated salivary urea N excretion was not changed by either treatment. Urea cycle regulation occurs via a complex interaction of mechanisms and requires N sources other than ammonia, but the effect of increased ammonia absorption on hepatic catabolism of individual AA in the present study was not significant.

Splanchnic metabolism of nutrients and hormones in steers fed alfalfa under conditions of increased absorption of ammonia and L-arginine supply across the portal-drained viscera

Effects of increased ammonia and/or arginine absorption on net splanchnic (portal-drained viscera [PDV] plus liver) metabolism of nonnitrogenous nutrients and hormones in cattle were examined. Six Hereford x Angus steers (501 +/- 1 kg BW) prepared with vascular catheters for measurements of net flux across the splanchnic bed were fed a 75% alfalfa:25% (as-fed basis) corn and soybean meal diet (0.523 MJ of ME/[kg BW(0.75.)d]) every 2 h without (27.0 g of N/kg of DM) and. with 20 g of urea/kg of DM (35.7 g of N/kg of DM) in a split-plot design. Net flux measurements were made immediately before and after a 72-h mesenteric vein infusion Of L-arginine (15 mmol/h). There were no treatment effects on PDV or hepatic 02 consumption. Dietary urea had no effect on splanchnic metabolism of glucose or L-lactate, but arginine infusion decreased net hepatic removal Of L-lactate when urea was fed (P < 0.01). Net PDV appearance of n-butyrate was increased by arginine infusion (P < 0.07), and both dietary urea (P < 0.09) and arginine infusion (P < 0.05) increased net hepatic removal of n-butyrate. Dietary urea also increased total splanchnic acetate output (P < 0.06), tended to increase arterial glucagon concentration (P < 0.11), and decreased arterial ST concentration (P < 0.03). Arginine infusion increased arterial concentration (P < 0.07) and net PDV release (P < 0.10) and tended to increase hepatic removal (P < 0.11) of insulin, as well as arterial concentration (P < 0.01) and total splanchnic output (P < 0.01) of glucagon. Despite changes in splanchnic N metabolism, increased ammonia and arginine absorption had little measurable effect on splanchnic metabolism of glucose and other nonnitrogenous components of splanchnic energy metabolism.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.