885 resultados para increase in risk
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Red meat consumption is associated with an increased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, which may be due to an increased endogenous formation of genotoxic N-nitroso compounds (NOCs). To assess the impact of red meat consumption on potential risk factors of CRC, we investigated the effect of a 7-day dietary red meat intervention in human subjects on endogenous NOC formation and fecal water genotoxicity in relation to genome-wide transcriptomic changes induced in colonic tissue. The intervention showed no effect on fecal NOC excretion but fecal water genotoxicity significantly increased in response to red meat intake. Colonic inflammation caused by inflammatory bowel disease, which has been suggested to stimulate endogenous nitrosation, did not influence fecal NOC excretion or fecal water genotoxicity. Transcriptomic analyses revealed that genes significantly correlating with the increase in fecal water genotoxicity were involved in biological pathways indicative of genotoxic effects, including modifications in DNA damage repair, cell cycle, and apoptosis pathways. Moreover, WNT signaling and nucleosome remodeling pathways were modulated which are implicated in human CRC development. We conclude that the gene expression changes identified in this study corroborate the genotoxic potential of diets high in red meat and point towards a potentially increased CRC risk in humans.
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Aim: To determine the prevalence and nature of prescribing errors in general practice; to explore the causes, and to identify defences against error. Methods: 1) Systematic reviews; 2) Retrospective review of unique medication items prescribed over a 12 month period to a 2% sample of patients from 15 general practices in England; 3) Interviews with 34 prescribers regarding 70 potential errors; 15 root cause analyses, and six focus groups involving 46 primary health care team members Results: The study involved examination of 6,048 unique prescription items for 1,777 patients. Prescribing or monitoring errors were detected for one in eight patients, involving around one in 20 of all prescription items. The vast majority of the errors were of mild to moderate severity, with one in 550 items being associated with a severe error. The following factors were associated with increased risk of prescribing or monitoring errors: male gender, age less than 15 years or greater than 64 years, number of unique medication items prescribed, and being prescribed preparations in the following therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, infections, malignant disease and immunosuppression, musculoskeletal, eye, ENT and skin. Prescribing or monitoring errors were not associated with the grade of GP or whether prescriptions were issued as acute or repeat items. A wide range of underlying causes of error were identified relating to the prescriber, patient, the team, the working environment, the task, the computer system and the primary/secondary care interface. Many defences against error were also identified, including strategies employed by individual prescribers and primary care teams, and making best use of health information technology. Conclusion: Prescribing errors in general practices are common, although severe errors are unusual. Many factors increase the risk of error. Strategies for reducing the prevalence of error should focus on GP training, continuing professional development for GPs, clinical governance, effective use of clinical computer systems, and improving safety systems within general practices and at the interface with secondary care.
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This paper proposes hybrid capital securities as a significant part of senior bank executive incentive compensation in light of Basel III, a new global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy and liquidity agreed by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The committee developed Basel III in a response to the deficiencies in financial regulation brought about by the global financial crisis. Basel III strengthens bank capital requirements and introduces new regulatory requirements on bank liquidity and bank leverage. The hybrid bank capital securities we propose for bank executives’ compensation are preferred shares and subordinated debt that the June 2004 Basel II regulatory framework recognised as other admissible forms of capital. The past two decades have witnessed dramatic increase in performance-related pay in the banking industry. Stakeholders such as shareholders, debtholders and regulators criticise traditional cash and equity-based compensation for encouraging bank executives’ excessive risk taking and short-termism, which has resulted in the failure of risk management in high profile banks during the global financial crisis. Paying compensation in the form of hybrid bank capital securities may align the interests of executives with those of stakeholders and help banks regain their reputation for prudence after years of aggressive risk-taking. Additionally, banks are desperately seeking to raise capital in order to bolster balance sheets damaged by the ongoing credit crisis. Tapping their own senior employees with large incentive compensation packages may be a viable additional source of capital that is politically acceptable in times of large-scale bailouts of the financial sector and economically wise as it aligns the interests of the executives with the need for a stable financial system.
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While selenium (Se) is an essential micronutrient for humans, epidemiological studies have raised concern that supranutritional Se intake may increase the risk to develop Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to determine the impact of Se at a dose and source frequently ingested by humans on markers of insulin sensitivity and signalling. Male pigs were fed either a Se-adequate (0.17 mg Se/kg) or a Se-supranutritional (0.50 mg Se/kg; high-Se) diet. After 16 weeks of intervention, fasting plasma insulin and cholesterol levels were non-significantly increased in the high-Se pigs, whereas fasting glucose concentrations did not differ between the two groups. In skeletal muscle of high-Se pigs, glutathione peroxidase activity was increased, gene expression of forkhead box O1 transcription factor and peroxisomal proliferator-activated receptor- coactivator 1 were increased and gene expression of the glycolytic enzyme pyruvate kinase was decreased. In visceral adipose tissue of high-Se pigs, mRNA levels of sterol regulatory element-binding transcription factor 1 were increased, and the phosphorylation of Akt, AMP-activated kinase and mitogen-activated protein kinases was affected. In conclusion, dietary Se oversupply may affect expression and activity of proteins involved in energy metabolism in major insulin target tissues, though this is probably not sufficient to induce diabetes.
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Background DNA methylation of promoter-associated CpG islands of certain genes may play a role in the development of colorectal cancer. The MYOD-1 gene which is a muscle differentiation gene has been showed to be significantly methylated in colorectal cancer which, is an age related event. However the role of this gene in the colonic mucosa is not understood and whether methylation occurs in subjects without colon cancer. In this study, we have determined the frequency of methylation of the MYOD-1 gene in normal colonic mucosa and investigated to see if this is associated with established colorectal cancer risk factors primarily ageing. Results We analysed colonic mucosal biopsies in 218 normal individuals and demonstrated that in most individuals promoter hypermethylation was not quantified for MYOD-1. However, promoter hypermethylation increased significantly with age (p < 0.001 using regression analysis) and this was gender independent. We also showed that gene promoter methylation increased positively with an increase in waist to hip (WHR) ratio - the latter is also a known risk factor for colon cancer development. Conclusions Our study suggests that promoter gene hypermethylation of the MYOD-1 gene increases significantly with age in normal individuals and thus may offer potential as a putative biomarker for colorectal cancer.
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The tumour suppressor APC is the most commonly altered gene in colorectal cancer (CRC). Genetic and epigenetic alterations of APC may therefore be associated with dietary and lifestyle risk factors for CRC. Analysis of APC mutations in the extended mutation cluster region (codons 1276-1556) and APC promoter 1A methylation was performed on 185 archival CRC samples collected from participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk Study, with the aim of relating these to high quality seven-day dietary and lifestyle data collected prospectively. Truncating APC mutations (APC+) and promoter 1A methylation (PM+) were identified in 43% and 23% of CRCs analysed, respectively. Distal CRCs were more likely than proximal CRCs to be APC+ or PM+ (P = 0.04). APC+ CRCs were more likely to be moderately/well differentiated and microsatellite stable than APC- CRCs (P = 0.05 and 0.03). APC+ CRC cases consumed more alcohol than their counterparts (P = 0.01) and PM+ CRC cases consumed lower levels of folate and fibre (P = 0.01 and 0.004). APC+ or PM+ CRC cases consumedhigher levels of processed meat and iron from red meat and red meat products (P=0.007 and 0.006). Specifically, CRC cases harbouring GC to AT transition mutations consumed higher levels of processed meat (35 versus 24 g/day, P = 0.04) and iron from red meat and red meat products (0.8 versus 0.6 mg/day, P = 0.05). In a logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex and cigarette smoking status, each 19g/day (1SD) increment increase in processed meat consumption was associated with cases with GC to AT mutations (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.03-2.75). In conclusion, APC+ and PM+ CRCs may be influenced by diet and GC to AT mutations in APC are associated with processed meat consumption, suggesting a mechanistic link with dietary alkylating agents, such as N-nitroso compounds.
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Aims: To investigate the effect of a therapeutic and sub-therapeutic chlortetracycline treatment on tetracyclineresistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and on the commensal Escherichia coli in pig. Methods and Results: Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 was orally administered in all pigs prior to antibiotic treatment, and monitored with the native E. coli. Higher numbers of S. Typhimurium DT104 were shed from treated pigs than untreated pigs. This lasted up to 6 weeks post-treatment in the high-dose group. In this group, there was a 30% increase in E. coli with a chlortetracycline minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) > 16 mg l(-1) and a 10% increase in E. coli with an MIC > 50 mg l(-1) during and 2 weeks post-treatment. This effect was less-pronounced in the low-dose group. PCR identified the predominant tetracycline resistance genes in the E. coli as tetA, tetB and tetC. The concentration of chlortetracycline in the pig faeces was measured by HPLC and levels reached 80 mug g(-1) faeces during treatment. Conclusion: Chlortetracycline treatment increases the proportion of resistant enteric bacteria beyond the current withdrawal time. Significance and Impact of the Study: Treated pigs are more likely to enter abattoirs with higher levels of resistant bacteria than untreated pigs promoting the risk of these moving up the food chain and infecting man.
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Objective To determine the prevalence and nature of prescribing and monitoring errors in general practices in England. Design Retrospective case note review of unique medication items prescribed over a 12 month period to a 2% random sample of patients. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to analyse the data. Setting Fifteen general practices across three primary care trusts in England. Data sources Examination of 6048 unique prescription items prescribed over the previous 12 months for 1777 patients. Main outcome measures Prevalence of prescribing and monitoring errors, and severity of errors, using validated definitions. Results Prescribing and/or monitoring errors were detected in 4.9% (296/6048) of all prescription items (95% confidence interval 4.4 - 5.5%). The vast majority of errors were of mild to moderate severity, with 0.2% (11/6048) of items having a severe error. After adjusting for covariates, patient-related factors associated with an increased risk of prescribing and/or monitoring errors were: age less than 15 (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.87, 1.19 to 2.94, p=0.006) or greater than 64 years (OR 1.68, 1.04 to 2.73, p=0.035), and higher numbers of unique medication items prescribed (OR 1.16, 1.12 to 1.19, p<0.001). Conclusion Prescribing and monitoring errors are common in English general practice, although severe errors are unusual. Many factors increase the risk of error. Having identified the most common and important errors, and the factors associated with these, strategies to prevent future errors should be developed based on the study findings.
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Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated windstorms affecting the Medi-terranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC), comparing the end of the twentieth century and at least the first half of the twenty-first century. As one of the models has a considerably enhanced resolution of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is also investigated whether the climate change signals are influenced by the model resolution. While the higher resolved simulation is closer to reanalysis climatology, both in terms of cyclones and windstorm distributions, there is no evidence for an influence of the resolution on the sign of the climate change signal. All model simulations show a reduction in the total number of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions. Exceptions are Morocco and the Levant region, where the models predict an increase in the number of cyclones. The reduction is especially strong for intense cyclones in terms of their Laplacian of pressure. The influence of the simulated positive shift in the NAO Index on the cyclone decrease is restricted to the Western Mediterranean region, where it explains 10–50 % of the simulated trend, depending on the individual simulation. With respect to windstorms, decreases are simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. This overall reduction is due to a decrease in the number of events associated with local cyclones, while the number of events associated with cyclones outside of the Mediterranean region slightly increases. These systems are, however, less intense in terms of their integrated severity over the Mediterranean area, as they mostly affect the fringes of the region. In spite of the general reduction in total numbers, several cyclones and windstorms of intensity unknown under current climate conditions are identified for the scenario simulations. For these events, no common trend exists in the individual simulations. Thus, they may rather be attributed to long-term (e.g. decadal) variability than to the Greenhouse Gas forcing. Nevertheless, the result indicates that high-impact weather systems will remain an important risk in the Mediterranean Basin.
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BACKGROUND: Intronic variation in the FTO (fat mass and obesity-associated) gene has been unequivocally associated with increased body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and the risk of obesity in populations of different ethnicity. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether this robust genetic predisposition to obesity can be attenuated by being more physically active. DESIGN: The FTO variant rs1121980 was genotyped in 20,374 participants (39-79 y of age) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk Study, an ethnically homogeneous population-based cohort. Physical activity (PA) was assessed with a validated self-reported questionnaire. The interaction between rs1121980 and PA on BMI and waist circumference (WC) was examined by including the interaction term in mixed-effect models. RESULTS: We confirmed that the risk (T) allele of rs1121980 was significantly associated with BMI (0.31-unit increase per allele; P < 0.001) and WC (0.77-cm increase per allele; P < 0.001). The PA level attenuated the effect of rs1121980 on BMI and WC; ie, whereas in active individuals the risk allele increased BMI by 0.25 per allele, the increase in BMI was significantly (P for interaction = 0.004) more pronounced (76%) in inactive individuals (0.44 per risk allele). We observed similar effects for WC (P for interaction = 0.02): the risk allele increased WC by 1.04 cm per allele in inactive individuals but by only 0.64 cm in active individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that PA attenuates the effect of the FTO rs1121980 genotype on BMI and WC. This observation has important public health implications because we showed that a genetic susceptibility to obesity induced by FTO variation can be overcome, at least in part, by adopting a physically active lifestyle.
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We analyze experimental data obtained from an ultimatum game framed as a situation of employee-employer negotiation over salaries. Parallel to this, we elicit subjects' risk attitudes. In the existing literature, it has often been conjectured that gender differences in strategic environments are partly due to differences in risky decision making. Our evidence suggests that both gender and risk-related effects co-exist in ultimatum bargaining. However, differences in risk attitudes cannot explain gender effects in ultimatum bargaining.
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This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.
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BACKGROUND: Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration is associated with high arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk, but whether this association is causal is unknown. We used a mendelian randomisation approach to test whether 25(OH)D concentration is causally associated with blood pressure and hypertension risk. METHODS: In this mendelian randomisation study, we generated an allele score (25[OH]D synthesis score) based on variants of genes that affect 25(OH)D synthesis or substrate availability (CYP2R1 and DHCR7), which we used as a proxy for 25(OH)D concentration. We meta-analysed data for up to 108 173 individuals from 35 studies in the D-CarDia collaboration to investigate associations between the allele score and blood pressure measurements. We complemented these analyses with previously published summary statistics from the International Consortium on Blood Pressure (ICBP), the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and the Global Blood Pressure Genetics (Global BPGen) consortium. FINDINGS: In phenotypic analyses (up to n=49 363), increased 25(OH)D concentration was associated with decreased systolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·12 mm Hg, 95% CI -0·20 to -0·04; p=0·003) and reduced odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·97-0·99; p=0·0003), but not with decreased diastolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·02 mm Hg, -0·08 to 0·03; p=0·37). In meta-analyses in which we combined data from D-CarDia and the ICBP (n=146 581, after exclusion of overlapping studies), each 25(OH)D-increasing allele of the synthesis score was associated with a change of -0·10 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·21 to -0·0001; p=0·0498) and a change of -0·08 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·15 to -0·02; p=0·01). When D-CarDia and consortia data for hypertension were meta-analysed together (n=142 255), the synthesis score was associated with a reduced odds of hypertension (OR per allele, 0·98, 0·96-0·99; p=0·001). In instrumental variable analysis, each 10% increase in genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a change of -0·29 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·52 to -0·07; p=0·01), a change of -0·37 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·73 to 0·003; p=0·052), and an 8·1% decreased odds of hypertension (OR 0·92, 0·87-0·97; p=0·002). INTERPRETATION: Increased plasma concentrations of 25(OH)D might reduce the risk of hypertension. This finding warrants further investigation in an independent, similarly powered study.
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Risk assessment for mammals is currently based on external exposure measurements, but effects of toxicants are better correlated with the systemically available dose than with the external administered dose. So for risk assessment of pesticides, toxicokinetics should be interpreted in the context of potential exposure in the field taking account of the timescale of exposure and individual patterns of feeding. Internal concentration is the net result of absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME). We present a case study for thiamethoxam to show how data from ADME study on rats can be used to parameterize a body burden model which predicts body residue levels after exposures to LD50 dose either as a bolus or eaten at different feeding rates. Kinetic parameters were determined in male and female rats after an intravenous and oral administration of 14C labelled by fitting one-compartment models to measured pesticide concentrations in blood for each individual separately. The concentration of thiamethoxam in blood over time correlated closely with concentrations in other tissues and so was considered representative of pesticide concentration in the whole body. Body burden model simulations showed that maximum body weight-normalized doses of thiamethoxam were lower if the same external dose was ingested normally than if it was force fed in a single bolus dose. This indicates lower risk to rats through dietary exposure than would be estimated from the bolus LD50. The importance of key questions that should be answered before using the body burden approach in risk assessment, data requirements and assumptions made in this study are discussed in detail.
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Background Whole grain (WG) foods have been suggested to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, but studies are inconsistent and effects on cardiovascular risk markers are not clear. Objective The objective of this study was to assess the impact of increasing WG consumption to at least 80 g/d on overall dietary intake, body composition, blood pressure (BP), blood lipids, blood glucose, gastrointestinal microbiology and gastrointestinal symptoms in healthy, middle-age adults with habitual WG intake < 24 g/d. The trial was registered as ISRCTN36521837. Methods Eligible subjects (12 men, 21 women, aged 40-65 y and BMI 20-35 kg/m2) were identified using food frequency questionnaires and subsequently completed 3-day food diaries (3DFD) to confirm habitual WG consumption. Subjects consumed diets high in WG (> 80 g/d) or low in WG (< 16 g/d, refined grain [RG] diet) in a crossover study, with 6-week intervention periods, separated by a 4-week washout. Adherence was achieved by specific dietary advice and provision of a range of cereal food products. The 3DFD, diet compliance diaries and plasma alkylresorcinols (ARs) were used to verify compliance. Results On the WG intervention, consumption increased from 28 g/d to 168 g/d (P < 0.001), accompanied by an increase in plasma ARs (P < 0.001) and total fiber intake (P < 0.001), without any effect on energy or other macronutrients. While there were no effects on studied parameters, there were trends towards increased 24 h fecal weight (P = 0.08) and reduction in body weight (P = 0.10) and BMI (P = 0.08) during the WG compared to the RG period. Conclusion A combination of dietary advice and provision of commercially available food items enabled subjects with a low-moderate habitual consumption of WG to substantially increase their WG intake, but there was little effect on blood biochemical parameters, body composition, BP, fecal measurements or gut microbiology.