The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

The effect of flexibility in working hours on fertility: A comparative analysis of selected european countries

The main aim of this paper is to measure the extent to which part-time work enhances fertility for married or cohabiting women of fertile age. The study covers eleven European countries. The data used are a pool sample of five waves of the European Community Household Panel. Given that we believe that the decisions concerning fertility and labor market status are taken jointly, we carry out a simultaneous estimation approach. Results suggest that policy makers wishing to implement adequate part-time schedules so as to enhance fertility should look at the part-time schedules available in Belgium, Ireland and The Netherlands, which enhance fertility for women who take advantage of this flexibility measure so as to reconcile family and work.

Wage differentials between permanent and temporary workers: Firm and occupational segregation

Published as an article in: Moneda y Crédito (2004), 219, pp.: 43-68.

Lengua y derecho a la educación en la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco : reflexiones jurídicas sobre el tránsito hacia un nuevo modelo

The article analyzes the legal regime of Euskara in the education system of the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country (capv). In the capv, the legislation recognizes the right to choose the language of study during the educational cycle. The students are separated into different classrooms based on their language preference. This system of separation (of language models) has made it possible to make great strides, although its implementation also suggests aspects which, from the perspective of a pluralistic Basque society on its way towards greater social, political and language integration, call for further reflection The general model for language planning in the capv was fashioned in the eighties as a model characterized by the guarantee of spaces of language freedom, and the educational system was charged with making the learning of the region’s autochthonous language more widespread. At this point, we already have a fair degree of evidence on which to base an analysis of the system of language models and we are in a position to conclude that perhaps the educational system was given too heavy a burden. Official studies on language performance of Basque schoolchildren show (in a way that is now fully verified) that not all the students who finish their mandatory period of schooling achieve the level of knowledge of Euskara required by the regulations. When faced with this reality, it becomes necessary for us to articulate some alternative to the current configuration of the system of language models, one that will make it possible in the future to have a Basque society that is linguistically more integrated, thereby avoiding having the knowledge or lack of knowledge of one of the official languages become a language barrier between two communities. Many sides have urged a reconsideration of the system of language models. The Basque Parliament itself has requested the Department of Education to design a new system. This article analyzes the legal foundations on which the current system is built and explores the potential avenues for legal cooperation that would make it possible to move towards a new system aimed at guaranteeing higher rates of bilingualism. The system would be sufficiently flexible so as to be able to respond to and accommodate the different sociolinguistic realities of the region.

O atendimento ao cidadão e o portal da Câmara dos Deputados

Aborda o problema do papel dos portais legislativos e o uso de suas ferramentas como indutoras de participação do cidadão nos processos da democracia brasileira. A pesquisa se conduziu, em linhas gerais, para chegar a uma análise das condições de mediação entre a Câmara dos Deputados e o cidadão por meio do uso do Portal. A fundamentação teórica se constituiu de discussões sobre a tecnologia como mediadora da informação; sobre as bases da democracia e a formação do Parlamento Brasileiro; e sobre o uso dos Portais Legislativos, dos canais de mediação e dos serviços de atendimento.

Propiedades eclesiásticas en una ciudad aduanera: los jesuitas en Orduña, 1689-1767

[ES]El colegio de los jesuitas de Orduña, uno de los más tardíos de todo el País Vasco, sigue en su fundación un patrón característico en los casos de mecenazgo indiano: benefactor oriundo, capital consolidado sobre el comercio y el servicio de la Corona, y diseño dirigido desde el otro lado del Atlántico, en este caso desde el Perú. El presente artículo aporta algunas claves sobre esas cuestiones, y ahonda en la formación del patrimonio que la Compañía de Jesús logró reunir en esta ciudad aduanera del Señorío de Vizcaya hasta el momento de la expulsión decretada por el rey Carlos III.

Reference Points Based on Dynamic Optimisation: A Versatil Algorithm for Mixed Fishery Management with Bio-economic Agestructured Models

Single-species management objectives may not be consistent within mixed fisheries. They may lead species to unsafe situations, promote discarding of over-quota and/or misreporting of catches. We provide an algorithm for characterising bio-economic reference points for a mixed fishery as the steady-state solution of a dynamic optimal management problem. The optimisation problem takes into account: i) that species are fishing simultaneously in unselective fishing operations and ii)intertemporal discounting and fleet costs to relate reference points to discounted economic profits along optimal trajectories. We illustrate how the algorithm can be implemented by applying it to the European Northern Stock of Hake (Merluccius merluccius), where fleets also capture Northern megrim (Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis) and Northern anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and Lophius budegassa). We find that optimal mixed management leads to a target reference point that is quite similar to the 2/3 of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target. Mixed management is superior to singlespecies management because it leads the fishery to higher discounted profits with higher long-term SSB for all species. We calculate that the losses due to the use of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target in this mixed fishery account for 11.4% of total discounted profits.

Resale in Auctions with Financial Constraints

This paper analyzes auctions where bidders face nancial constraints that may force them to resell part of the property of the good (or subcontract part of a project) at a resale market. First we show that the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria of second- price auctions (Garratt and Tröger, 2006) generalizes to situations with partial resale where only the high value bidder is nancially constrained. However, when all players face nancial constraints the ine¢ cient speculative equilibria disappear. Therefore, for auctioning big facilities or contracts where all bidders are nancially constrained and there is a resale market, the second price auction remains a simple and appropriate mechanism to achieve an e¢ cient allocation.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model

This paper proposes an extended version of the basic New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model which contemplates revision processes of output and inflation data in order to assess the importance of data revisions on the estimated monetary policy rule parameters and the transmission of policy shocks. Our empirical evidence based on a structural econometric approach suggests that although the initial announcements of output and inflation are not rational forecasts of revised output and inflation data, ignoring the presence of non well-behaved revision processes may not be a serious drawback in the analysis of monetary policy in this framework. However, the transmission of inflation-push shocks is largely affected by considering data revisions. The latter being especially true when the nominal stickiness parameter is estimated taking into account data revision processes.

Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model extended with both real-time and final data. After implementing a Bayesian estimation approach, the role of both habit formation and price indexation fall significantly in the extended model. The results show how revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In turn, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.

An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Time Variation in an Optimal Asymmetric Preference Monetary Policy Model

This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.

Moral cleansing and moral licenses: experimental evidence

Research on moral cleansing and moral self-licensing has introduced dynamic considerations in the theory of moral behavior. Past bad actions trigger negative feelings that make people more likely to engage in future moral behavior to offset them. Symmetrically, past good deeds favor a positive self-perception that creates licensing effects, leading people to engage in behavior that is less likely to be moral. In short, a deviation from a “normal state of being” is balanced with a subsequent action that compensates the prior behavior. We model the decision of an individual trying to reach the optimal level of moral self-worth over time and show that under certain conditions the optimal sequence of actions follows a regular pattern which combines good and bad actions. We conduct an economic experiment where subjects play a sequence of giving decisions (dictator games) to explore this phenomenon. We find that donation in the previous period affects present decisions and the sign is negative: participants’ behavior in every round is negatively correlated to what they did in the past. Hence donations over time seem to be the result of a regular pattern of self-regulation: moral licensing (being selfish after altruist) and cleansing (altruistic after selfish).