An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Climate change in Central América: Potential impacts and public policy options

Since 2008 we have supported the collaborative initiative "Economics of Climate Change in Central America" aimed at demonstrating the impacts of climate variability and change and fostering a discussion on public policies in key sectors. The initiative has been led by the Ministries of Environment and Treasury or Finance of Central America, with the support of their ministerial councils, CCAD, COSEFIN, and Economic Integration Secretariat, SIECA. The Ministries of Agriculture and of Health, with their councils, CAC and COMISCA, have also joined the effort; and the Dominican Republic came on board in 2015.

Economic and Social Panorama of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States 2015

This edition of the Economic and Social Panorama of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States is a contribution by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) to the fourth Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), to be held in Quito in January 2016. This document continues the work carried out since the first summit of CELAC held in Santiago and is a testimony to our ongoing commitment to work in collaboration with the countries of the region.

Emerging powers, humanitarian assistance and foreign policy: the case of Brazil during the earthquake crisis in Haiti

During the management of the crisis after the earthquake occurred in Haiti in 12 January 2010, Brazil played an important role on the efforts of humanitarian assistance. Based on bibliography and documents the paper presents the role played by Brazil with the focus on the humanitarian assistance as part of country’ foreign policy as an emerging power to increase the presence into the international system. To achieve this goal the article presents some considerations about emerging powers, foreign policy and theoretical concepts about humanitarian assistance and international relations, the extension of the earthquake in Haiti and the actions performed by Brazil during the response phase of the crisis management.

Precautionary principle, economic and energy systems and social equity

In this paper the precautionary principle is reviewed alongside the process of international implementation. Adoption of the precautionary principle is advocated to deal with energy choices as a mechanism to account for potential climate change impacts, notwithstanding the debate on scientific uncertainty on the links between solar activity, greenhouse gas concentration and climate. However, it is also recognized that the widespread application of the precautionary principle to energy choices does not seem to be taking place in the real world. Relevant concrete barriers are identified stemming from the intrinsic logic governing the hegemonic economic system, driving the energy choices by economic surplus and rent generation potential, the existence of social asymmetries inside and among societies as well as by the absence of democratic global governance mechanisms, capable of dealing with climate change issues. Such perception seems to have been reinforced by the outcome of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, held in Copenhagen in December 2009. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discussions about Health and Illness: revisiting Monteiro Lobato's adult work

Monteiro Lobato's opinions with regard to the health and disease themes were not restricted to Jeca Tatu's condition; he went beyond, and his opinions and reports about the illness experience can be observed in several excerpts of his adult work. This paper highlights the health and illness conceptions observed in Monteiro Lobato's writings. Through the analysis of his adult work, we could learn about his opinions and reports on his beloved ones' experience of being sick, the possibility that the disease offers of socializing individuals, medical corporativism, his participation in the Pro-Sanitation League, some paternalistic health practices and the vulnerability of those with unfavorable social conditions, among other topics, in some occasions with comical characteristics, in others with resignation and even anger. Therefore, this study analyzed his adult work, discussing the excerpts that deal with health and illness experienced in the first decades of the 20th century.

Evaluation of the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren: a cross-sectional analysis of 5,037 children

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren in Southern Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of 5,037 children of both genders, between 6 and 10.9 years of age, from public and private schools of Maringa, Parana, Brazil. Evaluation of factors associated with excess weight (overweight and obesity) included gender, age, school type, socioeconomic level, education of the head of the family, eating habits, and means of commuting to school. After univariate analysis (Fisher's exact test), we adjusted a logistic regression model and used Wald's test for decision-making (p < 0.05). Results: The mean age was 8.7 +/- 1.3 years, with 52.8% females; 79.1% of the students attended public school and 54.6% had families of socioeconomic class A or B. Regarding nutritional status, 24% of children were overweight (7% obesity, 17% overweight). Being male, attending a private school, and having a head of the family with over four years of education were significantly associated with excess weight. In relation to food, inadequate intake of,carbohydrates was associated with a 48% greater chance of overweight/obesity (p < 0.001; OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.25-1.76), Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight found in this study is approximate to that reported in national studies. Its association with gender and inadequate food intake indicates that these factors should be considered in initiatives aimed at preventive measures in childhood.

Work and Inter-subjectivity: a theoretical reflection on its dialectics in the field of health and nursing

This theoretical reflection intends to show the inter-subjective relationship that takes place in health and nursing practices under the following theoretical perspectives: Institutional Analysis, Psychodynamics of Labor and the Theory of Communicative Action, with an emphasis on the latter. Linking these concepts to the Marxist approach to work in the field of health emerges from recognizing the need for its continuous reconstruction-in this case, with a view to understand the interaction and communication intrinsic to work in action. The theory of Communicative Action seeks to consider these two inextricable dimensions: work as productive action and as interaction. The first corresponds to instrumental action based on technical rules with a production-guided rationale. The second refers to the interaction that takes place as communicative action and seeks understanding among subjects. We assume that adopting this theoretical perspective in the analysis of health and nursing practices opens new possibilities for clarifying its social and historical process and inter-subjective connections.

STATE INSTITUTIONS, POWER, AND SOCIAL NETWORKS IN BRAZILIAN URBAN POLICIES

A large historiographic tradition has studied the Brazilian state, yet we know relatively little about its internal dynamics and particularities. The role of informal, personal, and unintentional ties has remained underexplored in most policy network studies, mainly because of the pluralist origin of that tradition. It is possible to use network analysis to expand this knowledge by developing mesolevel analysis of those processes. This article proposes an analytical framework for studying networks inside policy communities. This framework considers the stable and resilient patterns that characterize state institutions, especially in contexts of low institutionalization, particularly those found in Latin America and Brazil. The article builds on research on urban policies in Brazil to suggest that networks made of institutional and personal ties structure state organizations internally and insert them,into broader political scenarios. These networks, which I call state fabric, frame politics, influence public policies, and introduce more stability and predictability than the majority of the literature usually considers. They also form a specific power resource-positional power, associated with the positions that political actors occupy-that influences politics inside and around the state.

Contributions of ergonomics to the construction of bus drivers health and excellence in public transport and at work

This article is the product of research that analyzed the work of bus drivers of a public transportation company that is considered a benchmark reference in its field of operations, in which it strives to achieve operating excellence. Within this context, the authors sought to understand how such a company has managed to maintain a policy that is capable of reconciling quality public transport while also providing working conditions compatible with the professional development, comfort and health of its workers. Ergonomic work analysis and activity analysis were the guiding elements used in this study. Initial analyses indicate that the activity of drivers includes serving a population and providing mobility for it, which depends on driving the vehicle itself and on relationships with colleagues, users, pedestrians, drivers and others.

Oral health and access to dental care services in relation to the Health Necessities Index. Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2008

The Health Department of Sao Paulo, Brazil, has developed a Health Necessities Index (HNI) to identify priority areas for providing health assistance. In 2008, a survey of the status of oral health was conducted. The objective of this ecological study was to analyze the status of oral health in relation to the HNI. The variables, stratified by the age of 5, 12 and 15 years old were: percentage of individuals with difficulty of access to dental care services; DMFT and DMFS; prevalence of the need for tooth extraction and treatment of dental caries. Data were analyzed for the 25 Health Technical Supervision Units (HTS). The Statistical Covariance Test was used as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression model. A positive correlation was observed between high scores of the HNI and difficulty of access to services. In the HTS with high scores of HNI a higher incidence of dental caries was observed, a greater need for tooth extractions and low caries-free incidence. In order to improve health conditions of the population it is mandatory to prioritize actions in areas of social deprivation.

Enhancing Workers’ Well-Being. Scientific and social relevance of managing stress in the workplace

Purpose. Despite work-related stress is one of the most studied topic in organizational psychology, many aspects as for example the use of different measures (e.g. subjective and objective, qualitative and quantitative) are still under debate. According to this, in order to enhance knowledge concerning which factors and processes contribute to create healthy workplaces, this thesis is composed by four different studies aiming to understand: a) the role of relevant antecedents (e.g. leadership, job demands, work-family conflict, social support etc.) and outcomes (e.g. workplace phobia, absenteeism etc.) of work-related stress; and b) how to manage psychosocial risk factors in the workplace. The studies. The first study focused on how disagreement between supervisors and their employees on leadership style (transformational and transactional) could affect workers well-being and work team variables. The second and third study used both subjective and objective data in order to increase the quality of the reliability of the results gained. Particularly, the second study focused on job demand and its relationship with objective sickness leave. Findings showed that despite there is no direct relationship between these two variables, job demand affects work-family conflict, which in turn affect exhaustion, which leads to absenteeism. The third study analysed the role of a new concept never studied before in organizational settings (workplace phobia), as a health outcome in the JD-R model, demonstrating also its relationship with absenteeism. The last study highlighted the added value of using the mixed methods research approach in order to detect and analyse context-specific job demands which could affects workers’ health. Conclusion. The findings of this thesis answered both to open questions in the scientific literature and to the social request of managing psychosocial risk factors in the workplace in order to enhance workers well-being.

Mental Health and Aging at the 2005 White House Conference on Aging: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Success! At the 2005 White House Conference on Aging, three-quarters of the 1,200 national delegates voted to improve “recognition, assessment, and treatment of mental illness and depression among older Americans.” This resulted in mental health being ranked as #8 of the final 50 WHCoA policy resolutions resulting from the conference. Joining this resolution in the “top ten” were two resolutions intimately tied to hopes for addressing the mental health needs of older adults—at #6 “Support Geriatric Education and Training for Health Care Professionals, Paraprofessionals, Health Profession Students and Direct Care Workers,” and #9 “Attain Adequate Numbers of Healthcare Personnel in All Professions Who are Skilled, Culturally Competent, and Specialized in Geriatrics.”

Trust and Social Networks in a Changing Europe.

This project set out to investigate the effects of the recent massive social transitions in Eastern Europe on the everyday social lives of the inhabitants of three very different nations: Georgia, Russia and Hungary. It focused in particular on the availability and nature of the support networks available to three different segments of each of the societies (manual workers, students and entrepreneurs) and the impact of network participation on psychological and physical well-being. The group set four specific questions to investigate: the part played by individual psychological beliefs in the formation and maintenance of social networks and the consequent formation of trusting relations; the implication of the size and quality of these networks for mental health; the nature of the social groups inhabited by the respondents and the implication of their work schedule and daily routines on the maintenance of a social and family life; and an analysis of how cultures vary in their social networks and intimacy. Three different methods were used to examine social support and its implications: structured questionnaires, semi-structured short interviews and a media analysis of newspaper materials. The questionnaires were administered to 150 participants in each country, equally divided between students studying full time, manual workers employed in factories, and business people (small kiosk owners, whose work and life style differs considerably from that of the manual workers). The questionnaires investigated various predictors of social support including the locus of control, relationship beliefs, individualism-collectivism and egalitarianism, demographic variables (age, gender and occupation), social support, both in general and in relation to significant events that have occurred since the transition from communism. Those with an internal locus of control were more likely to report a higher level of social support, as were collectivists, while age too was a significant predictor, with younger respondents enjoying higher levels of support, regardless of the measures of support employed. Respondents across the cultures referred to a decline of social support and the group also found a direct correlation between social support and mental health outcomes. All 450 respondents were interviewed on their general responses to changes in their lives since the fall of communism and the effects of their work lives on their social lives and the home environment. The interviews revealed considerable variations in the way in which work-life offered opportunities for a broader social life and also provided a hindrance to the development of fulfilling relationships. Many of the work experiences discussed were culture specific, with work having a particularly negative impact on the social life of Russian entrepreneurs but being seen much more positively in Georgia. This may reflect the nature of support offered in a society as overall support levels were lowest in Russia, meaning that social support may be of particular importance there. The way in cultural values and norms about personal relationships are transmitted in a culture is a critical issue for social psychologists and the group examined newspaper articles in those newspapers read by the respondents in each of the three countries. These revealed a number of different themes. The concept of a divided society and its implications for personal relationships was clearest in Russian and Hungary, where widely-read newspapers dwelt on the contrast between "new Russians/Hungarians" and the older, poorer ones and extended considerable sympathy to those suffering from neglect in institutions. Magyar Nemzet, a paper widely read by Hungarian students reflects the generally more pessimistic tone about personal relationships in Russia and Hungary and gave a particularly detailed analysis of the implications this holds for human relations in a modern society. In Georgia, however, the tone of the newspapers is more positive, stressing greater social cohesion. Part of this cohesion is framed in the context of religion, with the church appealing to a broader egalitarianism, whereas in less egalitarian Hungary appeals by the Church are centred more on the nuclear family and its need for expansion in both size and influence. The division between the sexes was another prominent issue in Hungary and Russia, while the theme of generational conflict also emerged in Hungarian and Georgian papers, although with some understanding of "young people today". The team's original expectation that the different newspapers read by the different groups of respondents would present differing images of personal relationships was not fulfilled, as despite variations in style, they found little clear "ideological targeting" of any particular readership. They conclude that the vast majority of respondents recognised that the social transition from communism has had a significant impact on the well-being of social relationships and that this is a pertinent issue for all segments of society. While the group see the data collected as a source to be worked on for some time in the future, their initial impressions include the following. Social support is clearly an important concern across all three countries. All respondents (including the students) lament the time taken up by their heavy work schedules and value their social networks and family ties in particular. The level of social support differs across the countries investigated, with Georgian apparently enjoying significantly higher levels of social support. The analysis produced an image of a relatively cohesive and egalitarian society in which even the group most often seen as distant from the general population, business people, is supported by a strong social network. In contrast, the support networks available to the Russian respondents seem particularly weak and reflect a general sense of division and alienation within the culture as a whole. The implications of low levels of social support may vary across countries. While Russians reported the lowest level of mental health problems, the link between social support and mental health may be strongest in that country. In contrast, in Hungary it is the link between fatalism and mental health problems which is particularly strong, while in Georgia the strongest correlation was between mental health and marital quality, emphasising the significance of the marital relationship in that country.