Are heat warning systems effective?

Heatwaves are associated with significant health risks particularly among vulnerable groups. To minimize these risks, heat warning systems have been implemented. The question therefore is how effective these systems are in saving lives and reducing heat-related harm. We systematically searched and reviewed 15 studies which examined this. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after the implementation of heat warning systems. Demand for ambulance decreased following the implementation of these systems. One study also estimated the costs of running heat warning systems at US$210,000 compared to the US$468 million benefits of saving 117 lives. The remaining eight studies investigated people?s response to heat warning systems and taking appropriate actions against heat harms. Perceived threat of heat dangers emerged as the main factor related to heeding the warnings and taking proper actions. However, barriers, such as costs of running air-conditioners, were of significant concern, particularly to the poor. The weight of the evidence suggests that heat warning systems are effective in reducing mortality and, potentially, morbidity. However, their effectiveness may be mediated by cognitive, emotive and socio-demographic characteristics. More research is urgently required into the cost-effectiveness of heat warning systems? measures and improving the utilization of the services.

Have we misinterpreted the study of Hoogerheide et al. (1971)?

In 1971, Rempt et al. reported peripheral refraction patterns (skiagrams) along the horizontal visual field in 442 people. Later in the same year, Hoogerheide et al. used skiagrams in combination with medical records to relate skiagrams in emmetropes and hyperopes to progression of myopia in young adults. The two articles have spurred interest in peripheral refraction in the past decade. We challenge the understanding that their articles provide evidence that the peripheral refraction pattern along the horizontal visual field is predictive of whether or not a person develops myopia. First, although it has been generally assumed that the skiagrams were measured before the changes in refraction were monitored, Hoogerheide et al. did not state that this was the case. Second, if the skiagrams were obtained at an initial examination and given the likely rates of recruitment and successful completion of training, the study must have taken place during a period of 10 to 15 years; it is much more likely that Hoogerheide et al. measured the skiagrams in a shorter period. Third, despite there being many more emmetropes and hyperopes in the Rempt et al. article than there are in the Hoogerheide et al. article, the number of people in two types of “at risk” skiagrams is greater in the latter; this is consistent with the central refraction status being reported from an earlier time by Hoogerheide et al. than by Rempt et al. In summary, we believe that the skiagrams reported by Hoogerheide et al. were taken at a later examination, after myopia did or did not occur, and that the refraction data from the initial examination were retrieved from the medical archives. Thus, this work does not provide evidence that peripheral refraction pattern is indicative of the likely development of myopia.

Earthworks planning for road construction projects : a case study

In this paper we construct earthwork allocation plans for a linear infrastructure road project. Fuel consumption metrics and an innovative block partitioning and modelling approach are applied to reduce costs. 2D and 3D variants of the problem were compared to see what effect, if any, occurs on solution quality. 3D variants were also considered to see what additional complexities and difficulties occur. The numerical investigation shows a significant improvement and a reduction in fuel consumption as theorised. The proposed solutions differ considerably from plans that were constructed for a distance based metric as commonly used in other approaches. Under certain conditions, 3D problem instances can be solved optimally as 2D problems.

Numerical studies of load bearing LSF walls under realistic design fire conditions

Fire safety of light gauge steel frame (LSF) stud walls is important in the design of buildings. Currently LSF walls are increasingly used in the building industry, and are usually made of cold-formed and thin-walled steel studs that are fire-protected by two layers of plasterboard on both sides. Many experimental and numerical studies have been undertaken to investigate the fire performance of load bearing LSF walls under standard fire conditions. However, the standard time-temperature curve does not represent the fire load present in typical residential and commercial buildings that include considerable amount of thermoplastic materials. Real building fires are unlikely to follow a standard time-temperature curve. However, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate the fire performance of load bearing LSF walls under realistic design fire conditions. Therefore in this research, finite element thermal models of the traditional LSF wall panels without cavity insulation and the new LSF composite wall panels were developed to simulate their fire performance under recently developed realistic design fire curves. Suitable thermal properties were proposed for plasterboards and insulations based on laboratory tests and literature review. The developed models were then validated by comparing their thermal performance results with available results from realistic design fire tests, and were later used in parametric studies. This paper presents the details of the developed finite element thermal models of load bearing LSF wall panels under realistic design fire time-temperature curves and the re-sults. It shows that finite element thermal models can be used to predict the fire performance of load bearing LSF walls with varying configurations of insulations and plasterboards under realistic design fires. Failure times of load bearing LSF walls were also predicted based on the results from finite element thermal analyses.

Performance comparison of four power system stabilizer

The well-known power system stabilizer (PSS) is used to generate supplementary control signals for the excitation system of a generator so as to damp low frequency oscillations in the power system concerned. Up to now, various kinds of PSS design methods have been proposed and some of them applied in actual power systems with different degrees. Given this background, the small-disturbance eigenvalue analysis and large-disturbance dynamic simulations in the time domain are carried out to evaluate the performances of four different PSS design methods, including the Conventional PSS (CPSS), Single-Neuron PSS (SNPSS), Adaptive PSS (APSS) and Multi-band PSS (MBPSS). To make the comparisons equitable, the parameters of the four kinds of PSSs are all determined by the steepest descent method. Finally, an 8-unit 24-bus power system is employed to demonstrate the performances of the four kinds of PSSs by the well-established eigenvalue analysis as well as numerous digital simulations, and some useful conclusions obtained.

Ureaplasma parvum serovar 3 multiple banded antigen size variation after chronic intra-amniotic infection/colonization

Ureaplasma species are the microorganisms most frequently associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. The multiple banded antigen (MBA), a surface-exposed lipoprotein, is a key virulence factor of ureaplasmas. The MBA demonstrates size variation, which we have shown previously to be correlated with the severity of chorioamnion inflammation. We aimed to investigate U. parvum serovar 3 pathogenesis in vivo, using a sheep model, by investigating: MBA variation after long term (chronic) and short term (acute) durations of in utero ureaplasma infections, and the severity of chorioamnionitis and inflammation in other fetal tissues. Inocula of 2x107 colony-forming-units (CFU) of U. parvum serovar 3 (Up) or media controls (C) were injected intra-amniotically into pregnant ewes at one of three time points: day 55 (69d Up, n=8; C69, n=4); day 117 (7d Up, n=8; C7, n=2); and day 121 (3d Up, n=8; C3, n=2) of gestation (term=145-150d). At day 124, preterm fetuses were delivered surgically. Samples of chorioamnion, fetal lung, and umbilical cord were: (i) snap frozen for subsequent ureaplasma culture, and (ii) fixed, embedded, sectioned and stained by haematoxylin and eosin stain for histological analysis. Selected fetal lung clinical ureaplasma isolates were cloned and filtered to obtain cultures from a single CFU. Passage 1 and clone 2 ureaplasma cultures were tested by western blot to demonstrate MBA variation. In acute durations of ureaplasma infection no MBA variants (3d Up) or very few MBA variants (7d Up) were present when compared to the original inoculum. However, numerous MBA size variants were generated in vivo (alike within contiguous tissues, amniotic fluid and fetal lung, but different variants were present within chorioamnion), during chronic, 69d exposure to ureaplasma infection. For the first time we have shown that the degree of ureaplasma MBA variation in vivo increased with the duration of gestation.

Investigating effective wayfinding in airports : a Bayesian network approach

Effective Wayfinding is the successful interplay of human and environmental factors resulting in a person successfully moving from their current position to a desired location in a timely manner. To date this process has not been modelled to reflect this interplay. This paper proposes a complex modelling system approach of wayfinding by using Bayesian Networks to model this process, and applies the model to airports. The model suggests that human factors have a greater impact on effective wayfinding in airports than environmental factors. The greatest influences on human factors are found to be the level of spatial anxiety experienced by travellers and their cognitive and spatial skills. The model also predicted that the navigation pathway that a traveller must traverse has a larger impact on the effectiveness of an airport’s environment in promoting effective wayfinding than the terminal design.

Rod and cone pathway signaling and interaction under mesopic illumination

This study investigates the time-course and post-receptoral pathway signaling of photoreceptor interactions when the rod (R) and three cone (L, M, S) photoreceptor classes contribute to mesopic vision. A four-primary photostimulator independently controls photoreceptor activity in human observers. The first experiment defines the temporal adaptation response of receptoral (L-, S-cone, rod) and post-receptoral (LMS, LMSR,+L-M) signaling and interactions. Here we show that nonopponent cone-cone interactions (L-cone, LMS, LMSR) have monophasic temporal response patterns whereas opponent signals (+L-M, S-cone) show biphasic response patterns with slower recovery. By comparison, rod-cone interactions with nonopponent signals have faster adaptation responses and reduced sensitivity loss whereas opponent rod-cone interactions are small or absent. Additionally, the rod-rod interaction differs from these interaction types and acts to increase rod sensitivity due to temporal summation but with a slower time course. The second experiment shows that the temporal profile of the rod signal alters the relative rod contributions to the three primary post-receptoral pathways. We demonstrate that rod signals generate luminance (þLþM) signals mediated via the MC pathway with all rod temporal profiles and chromatic signals (L/LþM, S/LþM) in both the PC and KC pathways with durations .75 ms. Thus, we propose that the change in relative weighting of rod signals within the post-receptoral pathways contributes to the sensitivity and temporal response of rod and cone pathway signaling and interactions.

High-stakes literacy tests and local effects in a rural school

High-stakes literacy testing is now a ubiquitous educational phenomenon. However, it remains a relatively recent phenomenon in Australia. Hence it is possible to study the ways in which such tests are reorganising educators’ work during this period of change. This paper draws upon Dorothy Smith’s Institutional Ethnography and critical policy analysis to consider this problem and reports on interview data from teachers and the principal in small rural school in a poor area of South Australia. In this context high-stakes testing and the associated diagnostic school review unleashes a chain of actions within the school which ultimately results in educators doubting their professional judgments, increasing the investment in testing, narrowing their teaching of literacy and purchasing levelled reading schemes. The effects of high-stakes testing in disadvantaged schools are identified and discussed.

Attitudes, Ideologies and Self-Organisation : Information Load Minimisation in Multi-Agent Decision Making

Sophisticated models of human social behaviour are fast becoming highly desirable in an increasingly complex and interrelated world. Here, we propose that rather than taking established theories from the physical sciences and naively mapping them into the social world, the advanced concepts and theories of social psychology should be taken as a starting point, and used to develop a new modelling methodology. In order to illustrate how such an approach might be carried out, we attempt to model the low elaboration attitude changes of a society of agents in an evolving social context. We propose a geometric model of an agent in context, where individual agent attitudes are seen to self-organise to form ideologies, which then serve to guide further agent-based attitude changes. A computational implementation of the model is shown to exhibit a number of interesting phenomena, including a tendency for a measure of the entropy in the system to decrease, and a potential for externally guiding a population of agents towards a new desired ideology.

Contextual models and the non-Newtonian paradigm

Biological systems exhibit a wide range of contextual effects, and this often makes it difficult to construct valid mathematical models of their behaviour. In particular, mathematical paradigms built upon the successes of Newtonian physics make assumptions about the nature of biological systems that are unlikely to hold true. After discussing two of the key assumptions underlying the Newtonian paradigm, we discuss two key aspects of the formalism that extended it, Quantum Theory (QT). We draw attention to the similarities between biological and quantum systems, motivating the development of a similar formalism that can be applied to the modelling of biological processes.

Predicting vitamin D deficiency in older Australian adults

OBJECTIVE There has been a dramatic increase in vitamin D testing in Australia in recent years, prompting calls for targeted testing. We sought to develop a model to identify people most at risk of vitamin D deficiency. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS This is a cross-sectional study of 644 60- to 84-year-old participants, 95% of whom were Caucasian, who took part in a pilot randomized controlled trial of vitamin D supplementation. MEASUREMENTS Baseline 25(OH)D was measured using the Diasorin Liaison platform. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency were defined using 50 and 25 nmol/l as cut-points, respectively. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. We used multivariate logistic regression to predict low vitamin D and calculated the net benefit of using the model compared with 'test-all' and 'test-none' strategies. RESULTS The mean serum 25(OH)D was 42 (SD 14) nmol/1. Seventy-five per cent of participants were vitamin D insufficient and 10% deficient. Serum 25(OH)D was positively correlated with time outdoors, physical activity, vitamin D intake and ambient UVR, and inversely correlated with age, BMI and poor self-reported health status. These predictors explained approximately 21% of the variance in serum 25(OH)D. The area under the ROC curve predicting vitamin D deficiency was 0·82. Net benefit for the prediction model was higher than that for the 'test-all' strategy at all probability thresholds and higher than the 'test-none' strategy for probabilities up to 60%. CONCLUSION Our model could predict vitamin D deficiency with reasonable accuracy, but it needs to be validated in other populations before being implemented.

Pro-Am curators of Australian television history : how is their practice different from that of professional television historians?

Eleven Pro-Am curators of Australian television history were interviewed about their practice. The data helps us to understand the relationship between professional and Pro-Am approaches to Australian television history. There is no simple binary – the lines are blurred – but there are some differences. Pro-Am curators of Australian television history are not paid for their work and present other motivations for practice – particularly being that ‘weird child’ who was obsessed with gathering information and objects related to television. They have freedom to curate only programs and genres that interest them, and they tend to collect merchandise as much as program texts themselves. And they have less interest in formally cataloguing their material than do professional curators of Australian television history.

The Effects of Personality in a Social Context

The contextuality of changing attitudes makes them extremely difficult to model. This paper scales up Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) to a social setting, using it to model the manner in which social contexts can interact with the process of low elaboration attitude change. The elements of this extended theory are presented, along with a proof of concept computational implementation in a low dimensional subspace. This model suggests that a society's understanding of social issues will settle down into a static or frozen configuration unless that society consists of a range of individuals with varying personality types and norms.

Exploring emotional climate in preservice science teacher education

Classroom emotional climates are interrelated with students’ engagement with university courses. Despite growing interest in emotions and emotional climate research, little is known about the ways in which social interactions and different subject matter mediate emotional climates in preservice science teacher education classes. In this study we investigated the emotional climate and associated classroom interactions in a preservice science teacher education class. We were interested in the ways in which salient classroom interactions were related to the emotional climate during lessons centered on debates about science-based issues (e.g., nuclear energy alternatives). Participants used audience response technology to indicate their perceptions of the emotional climate. Analysis of conversation for salient video clips and analysis of non-verbal conduct (acoustic parameters, body movements, and facial expressions) supplemented emotional climate data. One key contribution that this study makes to preservice science teacher education is to identify the micro-processes of successful and unsuccessful class interactions that were associated with positive and neutral emotional climate. The structure of these interactions can inform the practice of other science educators who wish to produce positive emotional climates in their classes. The study also extends and explicates the construct of intensity of emotional climate.