Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

The evolution of XY recombination: sexually antagonistic selection versus deleterious mutation load.

Recombination arrest between X and Y chromosomes, driven by sexually antagonistic genes, is expected to induce their progressive differentiation. However, in contrast to birds and mammals (which display the predicted pattern), most cold-blooded vertebrates have homomorphic sex chromosomes. Two main hypotheses have been proposed to account for this, namely high turnover rates of sex-determining systems and occasional XY recombination. Using individual-based simulations, we formalize the evolution of XY recombination (here mediated by sex reversal; the "fountain-of-youth" model) under the contrasting forces of sexually antagonistic selection and deleterious mutations. The shift between the domains of elimination and accumulation occurs at much lower selection coefficients for the Y than for the X. In the absence of dosage compensation, mildly deleterious mutations accumulating on the Y depress male fitness, thereby providing incentives for XY recombination. Under our settings, this occurs via "demasculinization" of the Y, allowing recombination in XY (sex-reversed) females. As we also show, this generates a conflict with the X, which coevolves to oppose sex reversal. The resulting rare events of XY sex reversal are enough to purge the Y from its load of deleterious mutations. Our results support the "fountain of youth" as a plausible mechanism to account for the maintenance of sex-chromosome homomorphy.

FIB-SEM tomography in biology.

Three-dimensional information is much easier to understand than a set of two-dimensional images. Therefore a layman is thrilled by the pseudo-3D image taken in a scanning electron microscope (SEM) while, when seeing a transmission electron micrograph, his imagination is challenged. First approaches to gain insight in the third dimension were to make serial microtome sections of a region of interest (ROI) and then building a model of the object. Serial microtome sectioning is a tedious and skill-demanding work and therefore seldom done. In the last two decades with the increase of computer power, sophisticated display options, and the development of new instruments, an SEM with a built-in microtome as well as a focused ion beam scanning electron microscope (FIB-SEM), serial sectioning, and 3D analysis has become far easier and faster.Due to the relief like topology of the microtome trimmed block face of resin-embedded tissue, the ROI can be searched in the secondary electron mode, and at the selected spot, the ROI is prepared with the ion beam for 3D analysis. For FIB-SEM tomography, a thin slice is removed with the ion beam and the newly exposed face is imaged with the electron beam, usually by recording the backscattered electrons. The process, also called "slice and view," is repeated until the desired volume is imaged.As FIB-SEM allows 3D imaging of biological fine structure at high resolution of only small volumes, it is crucial to perform slice and view at carefully selected spots. Finding the region of interest is therefore a prerequisite for meaningful imaging. Thin layer plastification of biofilms offers direct access to the original sample surface and allows the selection of an ROI for site-specific FIB-SEM tomography just by its pronounced topographic features.

Studying the micro-angels approach to micro-investment decisions

Purpose: The paper analyzes the micro-angels investment behaviour, looking both to the criteria used in the selection of their investment projects and to the characteristics of their guidance role during the investment period. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper focuses on a double bottom line movement of French micro-angels clubs that has been operating since 1983. Our primary source of data is an online survey carried out during March 2012, asking members of clubs all over France for different aspects of their procedures. Findings: Our findings suggest that micro-angels are interested in small, socially or environmentally friendly projects having the potential to contribute to the development of their neighbourhood. We find that women are even more interested than men in such projects. Educated micro-angels value entrepreneurial motivation and understanding of the project more than less-educated micro-angels. We also point out the factors that micro-angels consider important in accompanying enterprises. Here we find that gender makes little difference. However, retired micro-angels value financial diagnosis made conjointly with entrepreneurs, while both active micro-angels and educated micro-angels value more the use of their network to help micro-entrepreneurs. Practical/Social Implications: Given the potential benefits of micro-angels investing and guiding the development of micro-enterprises, a social micro-angel investment on a major scale in developing countries could help in tackling some of the problems faced by the development of microfinance, such as the over-indebtedness of micro-entrepreneurs. Practitioners and new initiatives would gain from understanding what adaptations need to be made. Originality/value: We expect to add to the venture capital theory to take into account non-economic motives.

Genetic variation at CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 interacts with smoking status to influence body mass index.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is associated with lower body mass index (BMI), and a commonly cited reason for unwillingness to quit smoking is a concern about weight gain. Common variation in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region (chromosome 15q25) is robustly associated with smoking quantity in smokers, but its association with BMI is unknown. We hypothesized that genotype would accurately reflect smoking exposure and that, if smoking were causally related to weight, it would be associated with BMI in smokers, but not in never smokers. METHODS: We stratified nine European study samples by smoking status and, in each stratum, analysed the association between genotype of the 15q25 SNP, rs1051730, and BMI. We meta-analysed the results (n = 24 198) and then tested for a genotype × smoking status interaction. RESULTS: There was no evidence of association between BMI and genotype in the never smokers {difference per T-allele: 0.05 kg/m(2) [95% confidence interval (95% CI): -0.05 to 0.18]; P = 0.25}. However, in ever smokers, each additional smoking-related T-allele was associated with a 0.23 kg/m(2) (95% CI: 0.13-0.31) lower BMI (P = 8 × 10(-6)). The effect size was larger in current [0.33 kg/m(2) lower BMI per T-allele (95% CI: 0.18-0.48); P = 6 × 10(-5)], than in former smokers [0.16 kg/m(2) (95% CI: 0.03-0.29); P = 0.01]. There was strong evidence of genotype × smoking interaction (P = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking status modifies the association between the 15q25 variant and BMI, which strengthens evidence that smoking exposure is causally associated with reduced BMI. Smoking cessation initiatives might be more successful if they include support to maintain a healthy BMI.

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.

Distribution of events of positive selection and population differentiation in a metabolic pathway: the case of asparagine N-glycosylation

Background: Asparagine N-Glycosylation is one of the most important forms of protein post-translational modification in eukaryotes. This metabolic pathway can be subdivided into two parts: an upstream sub-pathway required for achieving proper folding for most of the proteins synthesized in the secretory pathway, and a downstream sub-pathway required to give variability to trans-membrane proteins, and involved in adaptation to the environment andinnate immunity. Here we analyze the nucleotide variability of the genes of this pathway in human populations, identifying which genes show greater population differentiation and which genes show signatures of recent positive selection. We also compare how these signals are distributed between the upstream and the downstream parts of the pathway, with the aim of exploring how forces of population differentiation and positive selection vary among genes involved in the same metabolic pathway but subject to different functional constraints. Results:Our results show that genes in the downstream part of the pathway are more likely to show a signature of population differentiation, while events of positive selection are equally distributed among the two parts of the pathway. Moreover, events of positive selection arefrequent on genes that are known to be at bifurcation points, and that are identified as beingin key position by a network-level analysis such as MGAT3 and GCS1.Conclusions: These findings indicate that the upstream part of the Asparagine N-Glycosylation pathway has lower diversity among populations, while the downstream part is freer to tolerate diversity among populations. Moreover, the distribution of signatures of population differentiation and positive selection can change between parts of a pathway, especially between parts that are exposed to different functional constraints. Our results support the hypothesis that genes involved in constitutive processes can be expected to show lower population differentiation, while genes involved in traits related to the environment should show higher variability. Taken together, this work broadens our knowledge on how events of population differentiation and of positive selection are distributed among different parts of a metabolic pathway.

Signatures of selection in the human olfactory receptor OR5I1 gene

The human olfactory receptor repertoire is reduced in comparison to other mammalsand to other non-human primates. Nonetheless, this olfactory decline opens an opportunity forevolutionary innovation and improvement. In the present study, we focus on an olfactoryreceptor gene, OR5I1, which had previously been shown to present an excess of amino acidreplacement substitutions between humans and chimpanzees. We analyze the geneticvariation in OR5I1 in a large worldwide human panel and find an excess of derived allelessegregating at relatively high frequencies in all populations. Additional evidence for selectionincludes departures from neutrality in allele frequency spectra tests but no unusually extendedhaplotype structure. Moreover, molecular structural inference suggests that one of thenonsynonymous polymorphisms defining the presumably adaptive protein form of OR5I1may alter the functional binding properties of the olfactory receptor. These results arecompatible with positive selection having modeled the pattern of variation found in the OR5I1gene and with a relatively ancient, mild selective sweep predating the “Out of Africa”expansion of modern humans.

Early maternal investment in mice: no evidence for compatible-genes sexual selection despite hybrid vigor.

Confronting a recently mated female with a strange male can induce a pregnancy block ('Bruce effect'). The physiology of this effect is well studied, but its functional significance is still not fully understood. The 'anticipated infanticide hypothesis' suggests that the pregnancy block serves to avoid the cost of embryogenesis and giving birth to offspring that are likely to be killed by a new territory holder. Some 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses' suggest that the likelihood of a pregnancy block is also dependent on the female's perception of the stud's and the stimulus male's genetic quality. We used two inbred strains of mice (C57BL/6 and BALB/c) to test all possible combinations of female strain, stud strain, and stimulus strain under experimental conditions (N(total) = 241 mated females). As predicted from previous studies, we found increased rates of pregnancy blocks if stud and stimulus strains differed, and we found evidence for hybrid vigour in offspring of between-strain mating. Despite the observed heterosis, pregnancies of within-strain matings were not more likely to be blocked than pregnancies of between-strain matings. A power analysis revealed that if we missed an existing effect (type-II error), the effect must be very small. If a female gave birth, the number and weight of newborns were not significantly influenced by the stimulus males. In conclusion, we found no support for the 'compatible-genes sexual selection hypotheses'.

African signatures of recent positive selection in human FOXI1

Background: The human FOXI1 gene codes for a transcription factor involved in the physiology of the inner ear, testis, and kidney. Using three interspecies comparisons, it has been suggested that this may be a gene underhuman-specific selection. We sought to confirm this finding by using an extended set of orthologous sequences.Additionally, we explored for signals of natural selection within humans by sequencing the gene in 20 Europeans,20 East Asians and 20 Yorubas and by analysing SNP variation in a 2 Mb region centered on FOXI1 in 39worldwide human populations from the HGDP-CEPH diversity panel.Results: The genome sequences recently available from other primate and non-primate species showed that FOXI1divergence patterns are compatible with neutral evolution. Sequence-based neutrality tests were not significant inEuropeans, East Asians or Yorubas. However, the Long Range Haplotype (LRH) test, as well as the iHS and XP-Rsbstatistics revealed significantly extended tracks of homozygosity around FOXI1 in Africa, suggesting a recentepisode of positive selection acting on this gene. A functionally relevant SNP, as well as several SNPs either on theputatively selected core haplotypes or with significant iHS or XP-Rsb values, displayed allele frequencies stronglycorrelated with the absolute geographical latitude of the populations sampled.Conclusions: We present evidence for recent positive selection in the FOXI1 gene region in Africa. Climate mightbe related to this recent adaptive event in humans. Of the multiple functions of FOXI1, its role in kidney-mediatedwater-electrolyte homeostasis is the most obvious candidate for explaining a climate-related adaptation.

Protocol of the COSMIN study: consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments

Background: Choosing an adequate measurement instrument depends on the proposed use of the instrument, the concept to be measured, the measurement properties (e.g. internal consistency, reproducibility, content and construct validity, responsiveness, and interpretability), the requirements, the burden for subjects, and costs of the available instruments. As far as measurement properties are concerned, there are no sufficiently specific standards for the evaluation of measurement properties of instruments to measure health status, and also no explicit criteria for what constitutes good measurement properties. In this paper we describe the protocol for the COSMIN study, the objective of which is to develop a checklist that contains COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments, including explicit criteria for satisfying these standards. We will focus on evaluative health related patient-reported outcomes (HR-PROs), i.e. patient-reported health measurement instruments used in a longitudinal design as an outcome measure, excluding health care related PROs, such as satisfaction with care or adherence. The COSMIN standards will be made available in the form of an easily applicable checklist.Method: An international Delphi study will be performed to reach consensus on which and how measurement properties should be assessed, and on criteria for good measurement properties. Two sources of input will be used for the Delphi study: (1) a systematic review of properties, standards and criteria of measurement properties found in systematic reviews of measurement instruments, and (2) an additional literature search of methodological articles presenting a comprehensive checklist of standards and criteria. The Delphi study will consist of four (written) Delphi rounds, with approximately 30 expert panel members with different backgrounds in clinical medicine, biostatistics, psychology, and epidemiology. The final checklist will subsequently be field-tested by assessing the inter-rater reproducibility of the checklist.Discussion: Since the study will mainly be anonymous, problems that are commonly encountered in face-to-face group meetings, such as the dominance of certain persons in the communication process, will be avoided. By performing a Delphi study and involving many experts, the likelihood that the checklist will have sufficient credibility to be accepted and implemented will increase.

Non-random fertilization in mice correlates with the MHC and something else

One evolutionary explanation for the success of sexual reproduction assumes that sex is an advantage in the coevolutionary arms race between pathogens and hosts. Accordingly, an important criterion in mate choice and maternal selection thereafter could be the allelic specificity at polymorphic loci involved in parasite-host interactions, e.g. the MHC (major histocompatibility complex). The MHC has been found to influence mate choice and selective abortions in mice and humans. However, it could also influence the fertilization process itself, i.e. (i) the oocyte's choice for the fertilizing sperm, and (ii) the outcome of the second meiotic division after the sperm has entered the egg. We tested both hypotheses in an in vitro fertilization experiment with two inbred mouse strains congenic for their MHC. The genotypes of the resulting blastocysts were determined by polymerase chain reaction. We found nonrandom MHC combinations in the blastocysts which may result from both possible choice mechanisms. The outcome changed significantly over time, indicating that a choice for MHC combinations during fertilization may be influenced by one or several external factors.

Nonshivering thermogenesis capacity associated to mitochondrial DNA haplotypes and gender in the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula.

A selection gradient was recently suggested as one possible cause for a clinal distribution of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes along an altitudinal transect in the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula (Ehinger et al. 2002). One mtDNA haplotype (H1) rare in lowland, became widespread when approaching the altitudinal margin of the distribution. As H1 differs from the main lowland haplotype by several nonsynonymous mutations (including on ATP6), and as mitochondria play a crucial role in metabolism and thermogenesis, distribution patterns might stem from differences in the thermogenic capacity of different mtDNA haplotypes. In order to test this hypothesis, we measured the nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) associated with different mtDNA haplotypes. Sixty-two shrews, half of which had the H1 haplotype, were acclimated in November at semioutdoor conditions and measured for NST throughout winter. Our results showed the crucial role of NST for winter survival in C. russula. The individuals that survived winter displayed a higher significant increase in NST during acclimation, associated with a significant gain in body mass, presumably from brown fat accumulation. The NST capacity (ratio of NST to basal metabolic rate) was exceptionally high for such a small species. NST was significantly affected by a gender x haplotype interaction after winter-acclimation: females bearing the H1 haplotype displayed a better thermogenesis at the onset of the breeding season, while the reverse was true for males. Altogether, our results suggest a sexually antagonistic cyto-nuclear selection on thermogenesis.

Therapeutic PD-1 pathway blockade augments with other modalities of immunotherapy T-cell function to prevent immune decline in ovarian cancer.

The tumor microenvironment mediates induction of the immunosuppressive programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) pathway, and targeted interventions against this pathway can help restore antitumor immunity. To gain insight into these responses, we studied the interaction between PD-1 expressed on T cells and its ligands (PD-1:PD-L1, PD-1:PD-L2, and PD-L1:B7.1), expressed on other cells in the tumor microenvironment, using a syngeneic orthotopic mouse model of epithelial ovarian cancer (ID8). Exhaustion of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) correlated with expression of PD-1 ligands by tumor cells and tumor-derived myeloid cells, including tumor-associated macrophages (TAM), dendritic cells, and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC). When combined with GVAX or FVAX vaccination (consisting of irradiated ID8 cells expressing granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor or FLT3 ligand) and costimulation by agonistic α-4-1BB or TLR 9 ligand, antibody-mediated blockade of PD-1 or PD-L1 triggered rejection of ID8 tumors in 75% of tumor-bearing mice. This therapeutic effect was associated with increased proliferation and function of tumor antigen-specific effector CD8(+) T cells, inhibition of suppressive regulatory T cells (Treg) and MDSC, upregulation of effector T-cell signaling molecules, and generation of T memory precursor cells. Overall, PD-1/PD-L1 blockade enhanced the amplitude of tumor immunity by reprogramming suppressive and stimulatory signals that yielded more powerful cancer control.

Sélection et suivi prétransplantation des patients candidats à la greffe cardiaque en Suisse romande [Selection and preoperative follow-up of heart transplantation candidates in the French part of Switzerland].

Heart transplantation (HTx) started in 1987 at two university hospitals (CHUV, HUG) in the western part of Switzerland, with 223 HTx performed at the CHUV until December 2010. Between 1987 and 2003, 106 HTx were realized at the HUG resulting in a total of 329 HTx in the western part of Switzerland. After the relocation of organ transplantation activity in the western part of Switzerland in 2003, the surgical part and the early postoperative care of HTx remained limited to the CHUV. However, every other HTx activity are pursued at the two university hospitals (CHUV, HUG). This article summarizes the actual protocols for selection and pre-transplant follow-up of HTx candidates in the western part of Switzerland, permitting a uniform structure of pretransplant follow-up in the western part of Switzerland.