954 resultados para forecast errors


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A CE method was developed and validated for the stereoselective determination of midodrine and desglymidodrine in Czapek culture medium to be applied to a stereoselective biotransformation study employing endophytic fungi. The electrophoretic analyses were performed using an uncoated fused-silica capillary and 70 mmol/L sodium acetate buffer solution (pH 5.0) containing 30 mmol/L heptakis (2, 3, 6-tri-O-methyl)-beta-CD as running electrolyte. The applied voltage and temperature used were 15 kV and 15 C, respectively. The UV detector was set at 200 nm. The sample preparation was carried out by liquid-liquid extraction using ethyl acetate as extractor solvent. The method was linear over the concentration range of 0.1-12 mu g/mL for each enantiomer of midodrine and desglymidodrine (r >= 0.9975). Within-day and between-day precision and accuracy evaluated by RSDs and relative errors, respectively, were lower than 15% for all analytes. The method proved to be robust by a fractional factorial design evaluation. The validated method was used to assess the midodrine biotransformation to desglymidodrine by the fungus Phomopsis sp. (TD2), which biotransformed 1.1% of (-)-midodrine to (-)-desglymidodrine and 6.1% of (+)-midodrine to (+)-desglymidodrine.

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A CE method is described for the enantioselective analysis of propranolol (Prop) and 4-hydroxypropranolol (4-OH-Prop) in liquid Czapek medium with application in the study of the enantioselective biotransformation of Prop by endophytic fungi. The electrophoretic conditions previously optimized were as follows: an uncoated fused-silica capillary, 4%w/v carboxymethyl-beta-CD in 25 mmol/L triethylamine/phosphoric acid (H(3)PO(4)) buffer at pH 9 as running electrolyte and 17 kV of voltage. UV detection was carried out at 208 nm. Liquid-liquid extraction using diethyl ether: ethyl acetate (1:1 v/v) as extractor solvent was employed for sample preparation. The calibration curves were linear over the concentration range of 0.25-10.0 mu g/mL for each 4-OH-Prop enantiomer and 0.10-10.0 mu g/mL for each Prop enantiomer (r >= 0.995). Within-day and between-day relative standard deviations and relative errors for precision and accuracy were lower than 15% for all the enantiomers. Finally, the validated method was used to evaluate Prop biotransformation in its mammalian metabolite 4-OH-Prop by some selected endophytic fungi. The screening of five strains of endophytic fungi was performed and all of them could biotransform Prop to some extent. Specifically, Glomerella cingulata (VA1) biotransformed 47.8% of (-)-(S)-Prop to (-)-(S)-4-OH-Prop with no formation of (+)-(R)4-OH-Prop in 72 h of incubation.

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Copaifera species (Leguminoseae) are popularly known as ""copaiba"" or ""copaiva"". The oleoresins obtained from the trunk of these species have been extensively used in folk medicine and are commercialized in Brazil as crude oil and in several pharmaceutical and cosmetic products. This work reports a complete validated method for the quantification of beta-caryophyllene, alpha-copaene, and alpha-humulene in distinct copaiba oleoresins available commercially. Thus, essential oil samples (100 mu L) were dissolved in 20 mL of hexanes containing internal standard (1,2,4,5-tetramethylbenzene, 3.0 mM) in a 25 mL glass flask. A 1 mu L aliquot was injected into the GC-FID system. A fused-silica capillary column HP-5, coated with 5% phenylmethylsiloxane was used for this study. The developed method gave a good detection response with linearity in the range of 0.10-18.74 mM. Limits of detection and quantitation variety ranged between 0.003 and 0.091 mM. beta-Caryophyllene, alpha-copaene, and alpha-humulene were recovered in a range from 74.71% to 88.31%, displaying RSD lower than 10% and relative errors between -11.69% and -25.30%. Therefore, this method could be considered as an analytical tool for the quality control of different Copaifera oil samples and its products in both cosmetic and pharmaceutical companies. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Some motor tasks can be completed, quite literally, with our eyes shut. Most people can touch their nose without looking or reach for an object after only a brief glance at its location. This distinction leads to one of the defining questions of movement control: is information gleaned prior to starting the movement sufficient to complete the task (open loop), or is feedback about the progress of the movement required (closed loop)? One task that has commanded considerable interest in the literature over the years is that of steering a vehicle, in particular lane-correction and lane-changing tasks. Recent work has suggested that this type of task can proceed in a fundamentally open loop manner [1 and 2], with feedback mainly serving to correct minor, accumulating errors. This paper reevaluates the conclusions of these studies by conducting a new set of experiments in a driving simulator. We demonstrate that, in fact, drivers rely on regular visual feedback, even during the well-practiced steering task of lane changing. Without feedback, drivers fail to initiate the return phase of the maneuver, resulting in systematic errors in final heading. The results provide new insight into the control of vehicle heading, suggesting that drivers employ a simple policy of “turn and see,” with only limited understanding of the relationship between steering angle and vehicle heading.

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Quantum computers promise to increase greatly the efficiency of solving problems such as factoring large integers, combinatorial optimization and quantum physics simulation. One of the greatest challenges now is to implement the basic quantum-computational elements in a physical system and to demonstrate that they can be reliably and scalably controlled. One of the earliest proposals for quantum computation is based on implementing a quantum bit with two optical modes containing one photon. The proposal is appealing because of the ease with which photon interference can be observed. Until now, it suffered from the requirement for non-linear couplings between optical modes containing few photons. Here we show that efficient quantum computation is possible using only beam splitters, phase shifters, single photon sources and photo-detectors. Our methods exploit feedback from photo-detectors and are robust against errors from photon loss and detector inefficiency. The basic elements are accessible to experimental investigation with current technology.

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Popper's explications of 'ad hoc' in relation to hypotheses and explanations turn out to be either trivial, confused or mistaken. One such explication I discuss at length is circularity; another is reduction in empirical content. I argue that non-circularity is preferable to non-ad hocness for an acceptable explanation or explanans, and I isolate some persistent errors in his analysis. Second, Popper is barking up the wrong tree in proscribing reductions in empirical content in novel hypotheses. Such reductions may constitute scientific progress. He fails to show that ad hoc hypothesis are the threat to science he claims.

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There are quite a few typographical errors and omissions in Michael Lattke's ARC-funded German commentary on the Odes of Solomon. Most of them were discovered by Marianne Ehrhardt while she translated the manuscript into English for the Hermeneia commentary series: Lattke, Michael (2009). Odes of Solomon : a commentary. Fortress Press, Minneapolis, MN.

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There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

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The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

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Baekground: Patients with schizophrenia tend to have impaired performance on tests of working memory (WM). Neurocognitive models have linked WM to certain symptoms of schizophrenia. This study aimed to assess WM in schizophrenia and mania in the acute and subacute phases of the illness and explore correlations between WM and symptom clusters. Methods: A visuo-spatial delayed response task was used to assess WM in schizophrenia (n=20), mania (n= 14) and well controls (n=20). Patients were tested during the first week of an acute admission, and subjects were retested after four weeks. WM, symptoms (PANSS, TLC) and executive ability (COWAT, Stroop, Trail Making) were assessed at both time points. Results: When assessed for overall WM errors (both sensory and memory), there was a significant group difference (F- 11.53, df 2, 40; p

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To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

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A simple theoretical framework is presented for bioassay studies using three component in vitro systems. An equilibrium model is used to derive equations useful for predicting changes in biological response after addition of hormone-binding-protein or as a consequence of increased hormone affinity. Sets of possible solutions for receptor occupancy and binding protein occupancy are found for typical values of receptor and binding protein affinity constants. Unique equilibrium solutions are dictated by the initial condition of total hormone concentration. According to the occupancy theory of drug action, increasing the affinity of a hormone for its receptor will result in a proportional increase in biological potency. However, the three component model predicts that the magnitude of increase in biological potency will be a small fraction of the proportional increase in affinity. With typical initial conditions a two-fold increase in hormone affinity for its receptor is predicted to result in only a 33% increase in biological response. Under the same conditions an Ii-fold increase in hormone affinity for receptor would be needed to produce a two-fold increase in biological potency. Some currently used bioassay systems may be unrecognized three component systems and gross errors in biopotency estimates will result if the effect of binding protein is not calculated. An algorithm derived from the three component model is used to predict changes in biological response after addition of binding protein to in vitro systems. The algorithm is tested by application to a published data set from an experimental study in an in vitro system (Lim et al., 1990, Endocrinology 127, 1287-1291). Predicted changes show good agreement (within 8%) with experimental observations. (C) 1998 Academic Press Limited.

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Plant cells are characterized by low water content, so the fraction of cell volume (volume fraction) in a vessel is large compared with other cell systems, even if the cell concentrations are the same. Therefore, concentration of plant cells should preferably be expressed by the liquid volume basis rather than by the total vessel volume basis. In this paper, a new model is proposed to analyze behavior of a plant cell culture by dividing the cell suspension into the biotic- and abiotic-phases, Using this model, we analyzed the cell-growth and the alkaloid production by Catharanthus roseus, Large errors in the simulated results were observed if the phase-segregation was not considered.

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The problem of extracting pore size distributions from characterization data is solved here with particular reference to adsorption. The technique developed is based on a finite element collocation discretization of the adsorption integral, with fitting of the isotherm data by least squares using regularization. A rapid and simple technique for ensuring non-negativity of the solutions is also developed which modifies the original solution having some negativity. The technique yields stable and converged solutions, and is implemented in a package RIDFEC. The package is demonstrated to be robust, yielding results which are less sensitive to experimental error than conventional methods, with fitting errors matching the known data error. It is shown that the choice of relative or absolute error norm in the least-squares analysis is best based on the kind of error in the data. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objectives. To investigate the test-retest stability of a standardized version of Nelson's (1976) Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST) and its relationships with demographic variables in a sample of healthy older adults. Design. A standard card order and administration were devised for the MCST and administered to participants at an initial assessment, and again at a second session conducted a minimum of six months later in order to examine its test-retest stability. Participants were also administered the WAIS-R at initial assessment in order to provide a measure of psychometric intelligence. Methods. Thirty-six (24 female, 12 male) healthy older adults aged 52 to 77 years with mean education 12.42 years (SD = 3.53) completed the MCST on two occasions approximately 7.5 months (SD = 1.61) apart. Stability coefficients and test-retest differences were calculated for the range of scores. The effect of gender on MCST performance was examined. Correlations between MCST scores and age, education and WAIS-R IQs were also determined. Results. Stability coefficients ranged from .26 for the percent perseverative errors measure to .49 for the failure to maintain set measure. Several measures were significantly correlated with age, education and WAIS-R IQs, although no effect of gender on MCST performance was found. Conclusions. None of the stability coefficients reached the level required for clinical decision making. The results indicate that participants' age, education, and intelligence need to be considered when interpreting MCST performance. Normative studies of MCST performance as well as further studies with patients with executive dysfunction are needed.