Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Fos and Jun do not bend the AP-1 recognition site.

We have used a solution-based DNA cyclization assay and a gel-phasing method to show that contrary to previous reports [Kerppola, T. K. & Curran, T. (1991) Cell 66, 317-326], basic region leucine zipper proteins Fos and Jun do not significantly bend their AP-1 recognition site. We have constructed two sets of DNA constructs that contain the 7-bp 5'-TGACTCA-3' AP-1 binding site, from either the yeast or the human collagenase gene, which is well separated from and phased by 3-4 helical turns against an A tract-directed bend. The cyclization probabilities of DNAs with altered phasings are not significantly affected by Fos-Jun binding. Similarly, Fos-Jun and Jun-Jun bound to differently phased DNA constructs show insignificant variations in gel mobilities. Both these methods independently indicate that Fos and Jun bend their AP-1 target site by <5 degrees, an observation that has important implications in understanding their mechanism of transcriptional regulation.

Inferring identify from DNA profile evidence.

The controversy over the interpretation of DNA profile evidence in forensic identification can be attributed in part to confusion over the mode(s) of statistical inference appropriate to this setting. Although there has been substantial discussion in the literature of, for example, the role of population genetics issues, few authors have made explicit the inferential framework which underpins their arguments. This lack of clarity has led both to unnecessary debates over ill-posed or inappropriate questions and to the neglect of some issues which can have important consequences. We argue that the mode of statistical inference which seems to underlie the arguments of some authors, based on a hypothesis testing framework, is not appropriate for forensic identification. We propose instead a logically coherent framework in which, for example, the roles both of the population genetics issues and of the nonscientific evidence in a case are incorporated. Our analysis highlights several widely held misconceptions in the DNA profiling debate. For example, the profile frequency is not directly relevant to forensic inference. Further, very small match probabilities may in some settings be consistent with acquittal. Although DNA evidence is typically very strong, our analysis of the coherent approach highlights situations which can arise in practice where alternative methods for assessing DNA evidence may be misleading.

Training and search methods for speech recognition.

Speech recognition involves three processes: extraction of acoustic indices from the speech signal, estimation of the probability that the observed index string was caused by a hypothesized utterance segment, and determination of the recognized utterance via a search among hypothesized alternatives. This paper is not concerned with the first process. Estimation of the probability of an index string involves a model of index production by any given utterance segment (e.g., a word). Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are used for this purpose [Makhoul, J. & Schwartz, R. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 9956-9963]. Their parameters are state transition probabilities and output probability distributions associated with the transitions. The Baum algorithm that obtains the values of these parameters from speech data via their successive reestimation will be described in this paper. The recognizer wishes to find the most probable utterance that could have caused the observed acoustic index string. That probability is the product of two factors: the probability that the utterance will produce the string and the probability that the speaker will wish to produce the utterance (the language model probability). Even if the vocabulary size is moderate, it is impossible to search for the utterance exhaustively. One practical algorithm is described [Viterbi, A. J. (1967) IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory IT-13, 260-267] that, given the index string, has a high likelihood of finding the most probable utterance.

Colangiopancreatografia retrógrada endoscópica versus ultrassom endoscópico no diagnóstico histológico da estenose biliar maligna: revisão sistemática e metanálise

Introdução: O diagnóstico histológico das estenoses biliares é fundamental na definição da terapêutica a ser empregada, devido à heterogeneidade dos resultados dos estudos comparando o uso do escovado citológico e da biópsia transpapilar na colangiopancreatografia retrógada endoscópica (CPRE) com a punção aspirativa ecoguiada com agulha fina (ECO-PAAF) no diagnóstico histológico da estenose biliar maligna, e o fato de não existirem revisões sistemáticas e metanálises comparando esses métodos, este estudo propõe comparar esses dois métodos no diagnóstico histológico da estenose biliar maligna, através de revisão sistemática e metanálise da literatura. Métodos: Utilizando as bases de dados eletrônicas Medline, Embase, Cochrane, LILACS, CINAHL, e Scopus foram pesquisados estudos datados anteriormente a novembro de 2014. De um total de 1009 estudos publicados, foram selecionados três estudos prospectivos comparando ECO-PAAF e CPRE no diagnóstico histológico da estenose biliar maligna e cinco estudos transversais comparando ECO-PAAF com o mesmo padrão-ouro dos outros três estudos comparativos. Todos os pacientes foram submetidos ao mesmo padrão-ouro. Foram calculadas as variáveis do estudo (prevalência, sensibilidade, especificidade, valores preditivos positivos e negativos e acurácia) e realizada a metanálise utilizando os softwares Rev Man 5 e Meta-DiSc 1.4. Resultados: Um total de 294 pacientes foi incluído na análise. A probabilidade pré-teste para estenose biliar maligna foi de 76,66%. As sensibilidades médias da CPRE e da ECO-PAAF para o diagnóstico histológico da estenose biliar maligna foram de 49% e 76,5%, respectivamente; especificidades foram de 96,33% e 100%, respectivamente. As probabilidades pós-teste também foram determinadas: valores preditivos positivos de 98,33% e 100%, respectivamente, e valores preditivos negativos de 34% e 58,87%. As acurácias foram 60,66% e 82,25%, respectivamente. Conclusão: A ECO-PAAF é superior a CPRE com escovado citológico e/ou biópsia transpapilar no diagnóstico histológico da estenose biliar maligna. No entanto, um teste de ECO-PAAF ou CPRE com amostra histológica negativa não pode excluir a estenose biliar maligna, pois ambos os testes apresentam baixo valor preditivo negativo

Validation of the Item-Attribute Matrix in TIMSS-Mathematics Using Multiple Regression and the LSDM

The purposes of this study were (1) to validate of the item-attribute matrix using two levels of attributes (Level 1 attributes and Level 2 sub-attributes), and (2) through retrofitting the diagnostic models to the mathematics test of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), to evaluate the construct validity of TIMSS mathematics assessment by comparing the results of two assessment booklets. Item data were extracted from Booklets 2 and 3 for the 8th grade in TIMSS 2007, which included a total of 49 mathematics items and every student's response to every item. The study developed three categories of attributes at two levels: content, cognitive process (TIMSS or new), and comprehensive cognitive process (or IT) based on the TIMSS assessment framework, cognitive procedures, and item type. At level one, there were 4 content attributes (number, algebra, geometry, and data and chance), 3 TIMSS process attributes (knowing, applying, and reasoning), and 4 new process attributes (identifying, computing, judging, and reasoning). At level two, the level 1 attributes were further divided into 32 sub-attributes. There was only one level of IT attributes (multiple steps/responses, complexity, and constructed-response). Twelve Q-matrices (4 originally specified, 4 random, and 4 revised) were investigated with eleven Q-matrix models (QM1 ~ QM11) using multiple regression and the least squares distance method (LSDM). Comprehensive analyses indicated that the proposed Q-matrices explained most of the variance in item difficulty (i.e., 64% to 81%). The cognitive process attributes contributed to the item difficulties more than the content attributes, and the IT attributes contributed much more than both the content and process attributes. The new retrofitted process attributes explained the items better than the TIMSS process attributes. Results generated from the level 1 attributes and the level 2 attributes were consistent. Most attributes could be used to recover students' performance, but some attributes' probabilities showed unreasonable patterns. The analysis approaches could not demonstrate if the same construct validity was supported across booklets. The proposed attributes and Q-matrices explained the items of Booklet 2 better than the items of Booklet 3. The specified Q-matrices explained the items better than the random Q-matrices.

Evidence-based editing: factors influencing the number of citations in a national journal

Purpose: Citations received by papers published within a journal serve to increase its bibliometric impact. The objective of this paper was to assess the influence of publication language, article type, number of authors, and year of publication on the citations received by papers published in Gaceta Sanitaria, a Spanish-language journal of public health. Methods: The information sources were the journal website and the Web of Knowledge, of the Institute of Scientific Information. The period analyzed was from 2007 to 2010. We included original articles, brief original articles, and reviews published within that period. We extracted manually information regarding the variables analyzed and we also differentiated among total citations and self-citations. We constructed logistic regression models to analyze the probability of a Gaceta Sanitaria paper to be cited or not, taking into account the aforementioned independent variables. We also analyzed the probability of receiving citations from non-Spanish authors. Results: Two hundred forty papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The included papers received a total of 287 citations, which became 202 when excluding self-citations. The only variable influencing the probability of being cited was the publication year. After excluding never cited papers, time since publication and review papers had the highest probabilities of being cited. Papers in English and review articles had a higher probability of citation from non-Spanish authors. Conclusions: Publication language has no influence on the citations received by a national, non-English journal. Reviews in English have the highest probability of citation from abroad. Editors should decide how to manage this information when deciding policies to raise the bibliometric impact factor of their journals.

Inelastic electron tunneling spectroscopy of a Mn dimer

A scanning tunneling microscope can probe the inelastic spin excitations of single magnetic atoms in a surface via spin-flip assisted tunneling. A particular and intriguing case is the Mn dimer case. We show here that the existing theories for inelastic transport spectroscopy do not explain the observed spin transitions when both atoms are equally coupled to the scanning tunneling microscope tip and the substrate, the most likely experimental situation. The hyperfine coupling to the nuclear spins is shown to lead to a finite excitation amplitude, but the physical mechanism leading to the large inelastic signal observed is still unknown. We discuss some other alternatives that break the symmetry of the system and allow for larger excitation probabilities.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

¿Predice la autoeficacia percibida la ansiedad escolar? Estudio con estudiantes chilenos de Educación Secundaria

Dada la importancia de las creencias de eficacia personal en el desarrollo cognitivo de las personas y su marcada influencia en las reacciones emocionales y conductuales experimentadas sobre todo ante situaciones difíciles, el objetivo de este estudio es analizar la capacidad predictiva de la autoeficacia percibida sobre la ansiedad escolar en una muestra de 1284 estudiantes chilenos de educación secundaria, 634 chicos y 650 chicas (49.4% y 50.6% respectivamente) con edades entre los 14 y 18 años (M = 15.43, DE = 1.24). Para ello, se evaluó la autoeficacia percibida con la Escala de Autoeficacia Percibida Específica de Situaciones Académicas (EAPESA) y la ansiedad escolar con el Inventario de Ansiedad Escolar (IAES). Los análisis de regresión logística revelaron que bajas puntuaciones en autoeficacia académica percibida predicen la alta ansiedad, revelando con ello la influencia de la autoeficacia percibida sobre la ansiedad escolar. A partir de estos resultados, es posible anticipar que la mejora de las expectativas de autoeficacia aumentaría las probabilidades de disminuir los elevados niveles de ansiedad en los estudiantes.

Perceptions des femmes exerçant différentes formes d'activités sexuelles rémunérées hors rue sur leur pratique

La présente recherche rend compte de la perception de leurs activités de huit femmes ayant pratiqué ou pratiquant toujours diverses formes d’activités sexuelles rémunérées dans un contexte hors rue. Les formes d’activités les plus souvent abordées sont la danse nue avec et sans contacts, l’escorte, le massage érotique et le phénomène communément appelé « sugar daddy », soit l’échange des services contre rémunération avec un client en particulier. Deux participantes de l’échantillon ont, parallèlement à leurs pratiques hors rue, exercé dans la rue. Le terme « pratiques sexuelles rémunérées » a été privilégié afin d’assurer une perspective neutre, c’est-à-dire sans parti pris a priori pour aucune des deux visions préexistantes par rapport au phénomène se situant à deux extrémités de ce que nous percevons plutôt être un continuum, soit la vision abolitionniste voulant que la « prostitution » soit une forme d’exploitation et de violence sexuelle commise principalement à l’égard des femmes, qui devrait être décriminalisée pour les femmes, mais criminalisée pour les clients et les proxénètes, et la vision soutenant que le « travail du sexe » est un choix qui constitue un travail comme un autre et, conséquemment, mérite d’être décriminalisé complètement, et ce, même pour les clients et les proxénètes. Notre approche visait essentiellement à permettre d’aller chercher les visions subjectives des femmes sur leur pratique, point de vue que nous retrouvons peu dans les écrits et les débats sur le sujet. La cadre théorique qui sous-tend notre analyse est celui de l’intersectionnalité. Les principales sources de discrimination ressorties sont l’âge, le statut socioéconomique, et l’origine ethnique pour une participante. Ces sources augmentent les facteurs de vulnérabilité faisant que les femmes se dirigent vers l’univers des pratiques sexuelles rémunérées, y demeurent ou parfois y retournent après un arrêt, ceci afin d’assurer leur subsistance, la consommation de substances psychoactives ou pour pouvoir rembourser des dettes et/ou se payer certains luxes. Le but de notre étude est de découvrir et de comprendre la perception des femmes quant à leur expérience associée à la pratique de différentes formes d’activités sexuelles rémunérées hors rue. Il s’agissait plus spécifiquement de décrire, comprendre et analyser la trajectoire ayant conduit les femmes vers la pratique d’activités sexuelles rémunérées; comprendre leurs trajectoires et leurs expériences en fonction des différents types de pratique, plus ou moins intense, plus ou moins variée et plus ou moins étendue dans le temps et, enfin, de situer leur perspective sur le continuum du débat social positionnant la pratique d’activités sexuelles rémunérées comme étant soit une forme d’exploitation ou une forme de travail comme un autre. Afin d’atteindre ces objectifs, une approche qualitative faite d’entretiens semi-dirigés auprès des femmes a été réalisée. Nous avons ainsi pu situer les perspectives des femmes sur un continuum où plusieurs trouvaient leur place dans des visions plus nuancées de leur réalité, alors que d’autres rejoignaient davantage une des deux visions polarisées. En effet, certaines ont vécu leur expérience essentiellement comme une forme d’exploitation et de violence à leur égard, alors que d’autres en traitent comme un choix et un travail comme un autre.

GSAMPLE: Stata module to draw a random sample

gsample draws a random sample from the data in memory. Simple random sampling (SRS) is supported, as well as unequal probability sampling (UPS), of which sampling with probabilities proportional to size (PPS) is a special case. Both methods, SRS and UPS/PPS, provide sampling with replacement and sampling without replacement. Furthermore, stratified sampling and cluster sampling is supported.

Serological diagnosis of echinococcosis: the diagnostic potential of native antigens

PURPOSE: Human alveolar (AE) and cystic echinococcosis (CE) caused by the metacestode stages of Echinococcus multilocularis and E. granulosus, respectively, lack pathognomonic clinical signs. Diagnosis therefore relies on the results of imaging and serological studies. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of several easy-to-produce crude or partially purified E. granulosus and E. multilocularis metacestode-derived antigens as tools for the serological diagnosis and differential diagnosis of patients suspicious for AE or CE. METHODS: The sera of 51 treatment-naïve AE and 32 CE patients, 98 Swiss blood donors and 38 patients who were initially suspicious for echinococcosis but suffering from various other liver diseases (e.g., liver neoplasia, etc.) were analysed. RESULTS: According to the results of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA), metacestode-derived antigens of E. granulosus had sensitivities varying from 81 to 97% and >99.9% for the diagnosis of CE and AE, respectively. Antigens derived from E. multilocularis metacestodes had sensitivities ranging from 84 to 91% and >99.9% for the diagnosis of CE and AE, respectively. Specificities ranged from 92 to >99.9%. Post-test probabilities for the differential diagnosis of AE from liver neoplasias, CE from cystic liver lesions, and screening for AE in Switzerland were around 95, 86 and 2.2%, respectively. Cross-reactions with antibodies in sera of patients with other parasitic affections (fasciolosis, schistosomosis, amebosis, cysticercosis, and filarioses) did occur at variable frequencies, but could be eliminated through the use of confirmatory testing. CONCLUSIONS: Different metacestode-derived antigens of E. granulosus and E. multilocularis are valuable, widely accessible, and cost-efficient tools for the serological diagnosis of echinococcosis. However, confirmatory testing is necessary, due to the lack of species specificity and the occurrence of cross-reactions to other helminthic diseases.

Perceptions des femmes exerçant différentes formes d'activités sexuelles rémunérées hors rue sur leur pratique

La présente recherche rend compte de la perception de leurs activités de huit femmes ayant pratiqué ou pratiquant toujours diverses formes d’activités sexuelles rémunérées dans un contexte hors rue. Les formes d’activités les plus souvent abordées sont la danse nue avec et sans contacts, l’escorte, le massage érotique et le phénomène communément appelé « sugar daddy », soit l’échange des services contre rémunération avec un client en particulier. Deux participantes de l’échantillon ont, parallèlement à leurs pratiques hors rue, exercé dans la rue. Le terme « pratiques sexuelles rémunérées » a été privilégié afin d’assurer une perspective neutre, c’est-à-dire sans parti pris a priori pour aucune des deux visions préexistantes par rapport au phénomène se situant à deux extrémités de ce que nous percevons plutôt être un continuum, soit la vision abolitionniste voulant que la « prostitution » soit une forme d’exploitation et de violence sexuelle commise principalement à l’égard des femmes, qui devrait être décriminalisée pour les femmes, mais criminalisée pour les clients et les proxénètes, et la vision soutenant que le « travail du sexe » est un choix qui constitue un travail comme un autre et, conséquemment, mérite d’être décriminalisé complètement, et ce, même pour les clients et les proxénètes. Notre approche visait essentiellement à permettre d’aller chercher les visions subjectives des femmes sur leur pratique, point de vue que nous retrouvons peu dans les écrits et les débats sur le sujet. La cadre théorique qui sous-tend notre analyse est celui de l’intersectionnalité. Les principales sources de discrimination ressorties sont l’âge, le statut socioéconomique, et l’origine ethnique pour une participante. Ces sources augmentent les facteurs de vulnérabilité faisant que les femmes se dirigent vers l’univers des pratiques sexuelles rémunérées, y demeurent ou parfois y retournent après un arrêt, ceci afin d’assurer leur subsistance, la consommation de substances psychoactives ou pour pouvoir rembourser des dettes et/ou se payer certains luxes. Le but de notre étude est de découvrir et de comprendre la perception des femmes quant à leur expérience associée à la pratique de différentes formes d’activités sexuelles rémunérées hors rue. Il s’agissait plus spécifiquement de décrire, comprendre et analyser la trajectoire ayant conduit les femmes vers la pratique d’activités sexuelles rémunérées; comprendre leurs trajectoires et leurs expériences en fonction des différents types de pratique, plus ou moins intense, plus ou moins variée et plus ou moins étendue dans le temps et, enfin, de situer leur perspective sur le continuum du débat social positionnant la pratique d’activités sexuelles rémunérées comme étant soit une forme d’exploitation ou une forme de travail comme un autre. Afin d’atteindre ces objectifs, une approche qualitative faite d’entretiens semi-dirigés auprès des femmes a été réalisée. Nous avons ainsi pu situer les perspectives des femmes sur un continuum où plusieurs trouvaient leur place dans des visions plus nuancées de leur réalité, alors que d’autres rejoignaient davantage une des deux visions polarisées. En effet, certaines ont vécu leur expérience essentiellement comme une forme d’exploitation et de violence à leur égard, alors que d’autres en traitent comme un choix et un travail comme un autre.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.