Pre-crash traffic flow trend analysis on motorways

Crashes on motorway contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence reduce crashes will help address congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a Short time window around the time of crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists, and that this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with traffic flow data of one hour prior to the crash using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic flow trends (traffic speed/occupancy time series) revealed that crashes could be clustered with regards of the dominant traffic flow pattern prior to the crash. Using the k-means clustering method allowed the crashes to be clustered based on their flow trends rather than their distance. Four major trends have been found in the clustering results. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation algorithms can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic flow conditions with a sliding window of 60 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Pre-crash and non-crash traffic flow trends analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assists in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a short time window around the time of a crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists. We will compare them with normal traffic trends and show this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding to traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash. Using the K-Means clustering method with Euclidean distance function allowed the crashes to be clustered. Then, normal situation data was extracted based on the time distribution of crashes and were clustered to compare with the “high risk” clusters. Five major trends have been found in the clustering results for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic conditions with a sliding window of 30 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Framing fashion curation : a theoretical, historical and practical perspective

This research project frames an emerging field – fashion curation – through a theoretical, historical, and practical enquiry. Recent decades have seen fashion curation grow rapidly as a form of praxis and an area of academic attention, predominantly in museums and universities. Within this context, two major models for conceptualising the role of the fashion curator have emerged: the institutional and the independent curator. This project proposes and applies a third model: the adjunct fashion curator. In developing this model my project seeks to move the growing dialogue around fashion curation away from exclusively focusing on the museum. By proposing a third curatorial model for fashion, this research draws on the past of fashion display and exhibition for its context, while simultaneously exploring the adjunct model through my curatorial practice. The impact of sites of display, the role of gender, and the relationship between art and fashion are explored as pivotal themes in the development of fashion curation and thus provide contextual grounding for the proposal of the adjunct curatorial model. Alongside a theoretical and historical account of fashion curation, I conduct a practice-led inquiry that explores these themes through five exhibition projects and one photographic series. I argue that the introduction and application of the adjunct model enables curatorial practitioners to sensitively work around the dominant museum model, and circumvent the divide between institutional and independent curation. Introducing the adjunct model allows the curator to develop personalised narratives relating to the experience of fashion and clothing as an exhibited phenomenon in a variety of institutional and non-institutional sites. Hence this research project contributes to a developing field by proposing a valuable and nuanced model for fashion curation.

Measurement, modelling and capacity analysis for novel, fixed multi-user single-antenna MIMO-OFDM system, in rural environments

High-speed broadband internet access is widely recognised as a catalyst to social and economic development. However, the provision of broadband Internet services with the existing solutions to rural population, scattered over an extensive geographical area, remains both an economic and technical challenge. As a feasible solution, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) proposed a highly spectrally efficient, innovative and cost-effective fixed wireless broadband access technology, which uses analogue TV frequency spectrum and Multi-User MIMO (MUMIMO) technology with Orthogonal-Frequency-Division-Multiplexing (OFDM). MIMO systems have emerged as a promising solution for the increasing demand of higher data rates, better quality of service, and higher network capacity. However, the performance of MIMO systems can be significantly affected by different types of propagation environments e.g., indoor, outdoor urban, or outdoor rural and operating frequencies. For instance, large spectral efficiencies associated with MIMO systems, which assume a rich scattering environment in urban environments, may not be valid for all propagation environments, such as outdoor rural environments, due to the presence of less scatterer densities. Since this is the first time a MU-MIMO-OFDM fixed broadband wireless access solution is deployed in a rural environment, questions from both theoretical and practical standpoints arise; For example, what capacity gains are available for the proposed solution under realistic rural propagation conditions?. Currently, no comprehensive channel measurement and capacity analysis results are available for MU-MIMO-OFDM fixed broadband wireless access systems which employ large scale multiple antennas at the Access Point (AP) and analogue TV frequency spectrum in rural environments. Moreover, according to the literature, no deterministic MU-MIMO channel models exist that define rural wireless channels by accounting for terrain effects. This thesis fills the aforementioned knowledge gaps with channel measurements, channel modeling and comprehensive capacity analysis for MU-MIMO-OFDM fixed wireless broadband access systems in rural environments. For the first time, channel measurements were conducted in a rural farmland near Smithton, Tasmania using CSIRO's broadband wireless access solution. A novel deterministic MU-MIMO-OFDM channel model, which can be used for accurate performance prediction of rural MUMIMO channels with dominant Line-of-Sight (LoS) paths, was developed under this research. Results show that the proposed solution can achieve 43.7 bits/s/Hz at a Signal-to- Noise Ratio (SNR) of 20 dB in rural environments. Based on channel measurement results, this thesis verifies that the deterministic channel model accurately predicts channel capacity in rural environments with a Root Mean Square (RMS) error of 0.18 bits/s/Hz. Moreover, this study presents a comprehensive capacity analysis of rural MU-MIMOOFDM channels using experimental, simulated and theoretical models. Based on the validated deterministic model, further investigations on channel capacity and the eects of capacity variation, with different user distribution angles (θ) around the AP, were analysed. For instance, when SNR = 20dB, the capacity increases from 15.5 bits/s/Hz to 43.7 bits/s/Hz as θ increases from 10° to 360°. Strategies to mitigate these capacity degradation effects are also presented by employing a suitable user grouping method. Outcomes of this thesis have already been used by CSIRO scientists to determine optimum user distribution angles around the AP, and are of great significance for researchers and MU-MUMO-OFDM system developers to understand the advantages and potential capacity gains of MU-MIMO systems in rural environments. Also, results of this study are useful to further improve the performance of MU-MIMO-OFDM systems in rural environments. Ultimately, this knowledge contribution will be useful in delivering efficient, cost-effective high-speed wireless broadband systems that are tailor-made for rural environments, thus, improving the quality of life and economic prosperity of rural populations.

Heat-producing crust regulation of subsurface temperatures : a stochastic model re-evaluation of the geothermal potential in western Queensland, Australia

A large subsurface, elevated temperature anomaly is well documented in Central Australia. High Heat Producing Granites (HHPGs) intersected by drilling at Innamincka are often assumed to be the dominant cause of the elevated subsurface temperatures, although their presence in other parts of the temperature anomaly has not been confirmed. Geological controls on the temperature anomaly remain poorly understood. Additionally, methods previously used to predict temperature at 5 km depth in this area are simplistic and possibly do not give an accurate representation of the true distribution and magnitude of the temperature anomaly. Here we re-evaluate the geological controls on geothermal potential in the Queensland part of the temperature anomaly using a stochastic thermal model. The results illustrate that the temperature distribution is most sensitive to the thermal conductivity structure of the top 5 km. Furthermore, the results indicate the presence of silicic crust enriched in heat producing elements between and 40 km.

Monotonous trend estimation of deck displacement for automatic landing of rotorcraft UAVs

This paper presents a novel and practical procedure for estimating the mean deck height to assist in automatic landing operations of a Rotorcraft Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) in harsh sea environments. A modified Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is outlined to deal with real-time observations of deck displacement, which involves developing an appropriate dynamic model to approach real deck motion with parameters identified through implementing the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. The model order is specified using a proper order-selection criterion based on minimizing the summation of accumulated estimation errors. In addition, a feasible threshold criterion is proposed to separate the dominant components of deck displacement, which results in an accurate instantaneous estimation of the mean deck position. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed recursive procedure exhibits satisfactory estimation performance when applied to real-time deck displacement measurements, making it well suited for integration into ship-RUAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Numerical characterization of the mechanical properties of metal nanowires

Nanowires (NWs) have attracted appealing and broad application owing to their remarkable mechanical, optical, electrical, thermal and other properties. To unlock the revolutionary characteristics of NWs, a considerable body of experimental and theoretical work has been conducted. However, due to the extremely small dimensions of NWs, the application and manipulation of the in situ experiments involve inherent complexities and huge challenges. For the same reason, the presence of defects appears as one of the most dominant factors in determining their properties. Hence, based on the experiments' deficiency and the necessity of investigating different defects' influence, the numerical simulation or modelling becomes increasingly important in the area of characterizing the properties of NWs. It has been noted that, despite the number of numerical studies of NWs, significant work still lies ahead in terms of problem formulation, interpretation of results, identification and delineation of deformation mechanisms, and constitutive characterization of behaviour. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to characterize both perfect and defected metal NWs. Large-scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were utilized to assess the mechanical properties and deformation mechanisms of different NWs under diverse loading conditions including tension, compression, bending, vibration and torsion. The target samples include different FCC metal NWs (e.g., Cu, Ag, Au NWs), which were either in a perfect crystal structure or constructed with different defects (e.g. pre-existing surface/internal defects, grain/twin boundaries). It has been found from the tensile deformation that Young's modulus was insensitive to different styles of pre-existing defects, whereas the yield strength showed considerable reduction. The deformation mechanisms were found to be greatly influenced by the presence of defects, i.e., different defects acted in the role of dislocation sources, and many affluent deformation mechanisms had been triggered. Similar conclusions were also obtained from the compressive deformation, i.e., Young's modulus was insensitive to different defects, but the critical stress showed evident reduction. Results from the bending deformation revealed that the current modified beam models with the considerations of surface effect, or both surface effect and axial extension effect were still experiencing certain inaccuracy, especially for the NW with ultra small cross-sectional size. Additionally, the flexural rigidity of the NW was found to be insensitive to different pre-existing defects, while the yield strength showed an evident decrease. For the resonance study, the first-order natural frequency of the NW with pre-existing surface defects was almost the same as that from the perfect NW, whereas a lower first-order natural frequency and a significantly degraded quality factor was observed for NWs with grain boundaries. Most importantly, the <110> FCC NWs were found to exhibit a novel beat phenomenon driven by a single actuation, which was resulted from the asymmetry in the lattice spacing in the (110) plane of the NW cross-section, and expected to exert crucial impacts on the in situ nanomechanical measurements. In particular, <110> Ag NWs with rhombic, truncated rhombic, and triangular cross-sections were found to naturally possess two first-mode natural frequencies, which were envisioned with applications in NEMS that could operate in a non-planar regime. The torsion results revealed that the torsional rigidity of the NW was insensitive to the presence of pre-existing defects and twin boundaries, but received evident reduction due to grain boundaries. Meanwhile, the critical angle decreased considerably for defected NWs. This study has provided a comprehensive and deep investigation on the mechanical properties and deformation mechanisms of perfect and defected NWs, which will greatly extend and enhance the existing knowledge and understanding of the properties/performance of NWs, and eventually benefit the realization of their full potential applications. All delineated MD models and theoretical analysis techniques that were established for the target NWs in this research are also applicable to future studies on other kinds of NWs. It has been suggested that MD simulation is an effective and excellent tool, not only for the characterization of the properties of NWs, but also for the prediction of novel or unexpected properties.

Planning for sustainability of non motorised public transport in a developing city

Most large cities around the world are undergoing rapid transport sector development to cater for increased urbanization. Subsequently the issues of mobility, access equity, congestion, operational safety and above all environmental sustainability are becoming increasingly crucial in transport planning and policy making. The popular response in addressing these issues has been demand management, through improvement of motorised public transport (MPT) modes (bus, train, tram) and non-motorized transport (NMT) modes (walk, bicycle); improved fuel technology. Relatively little attention has however been given to another readily available and highly sustainable component of the urban transport system, non-motorized public transport (NMPT) such as the pedicab that operates on a commercial basis and serves as an NMT taxi; and has long standing history in many Asian cities; relatively stable in existence in Latin America; and reemerging and expanding in Europe, North America and Australia. Consensus at policy level on the apparent benefits, costs and management approach for NMPT integration has often been a major transport planning problem. Within this context, this research attempts to provide a more complete analysis of the current existence rationale and possible future, or otherwise, of NMPT as a regular public transport system. The analytical process is divided into three major stages. Stage 1 reviews the status and role condition of NMPT as regular public transport on a global scale- in developing cities and developed cities. The review establishes the strong ongoing and future potential role of NMPT in major developing cities. Stage 2 narrows down the status review to a case study city of a developing country in order to facilitate deeper role review and status analysis of the mode. Dhaka, capital city of Bangladesh, has been chosen due to its magnitude of NMPT presence. The review and analysis reveals the multisectoral and dominant role of NMPT in catering for the travel need of Dhaka transport users. The review also indicates ad-hoc, disintegrated policy planning in management of NMPT and the need for a planning framework to facilitate balanced integration between NMPT and MT in future. Stage 3 develops an integrated, multimodal planning framework (IMPF), based on a four-step planning process. This includes defining the purpose and scope of the planning exercise, determining current deficiencies and preferred characteristics for the proposed IMPF, selection of suitable techniques to address the deficiencies and needs of the transport network while laying out the IMPF and finally, development of a delivery plan for the IMPF based on a selected layout technique and integration approach. The output of the exercise is a planning instrument (decision tool) that can be used to assign a road hierarchy in order to allocate appropriate traffic to appropriate network type, particularly to facilitate the operational balance between MT and NMT. The instrument is based on a partial restriction approach of motorised transport (MT) and NMT, structured on the notion of functional hierarchy approach, and distributes/prioritises MT and NMT such that functional needs of the network category is best complemented. The planning instrument based on these processes and principles offers a six-level road hierarchy with a different composition of network-governing attributes and modal priority, for the current Dhaka transport network, in order to facilitate efficient integration of NMT with MT. A case study application of the instrument on a small transport network of Dhaka also demonstrates the utility, flexibility and adoptability of the instrument in logically allocating corridors with particular positions in the road hierarchy paradigm. Although the tool is useful in enabling balanced distribution of NMPT with MT at different network levels, further investigation is required with reference to detailed modal variations, scales and locations of a network to further generalise the framework application.

Epstein-Barr virus-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the elderly expresses EBNA3A with conserved CD8+ T-cell epitopes

Post-transplantation lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLD) arise in the immunosuppressed and are frequently Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) associated. The most common PTLD histological sub-type is diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (EBV+DLBCL-PTLD). Restoration of EBV-specific T-cell immunity can induce EBV+DLBCL-PTLD regression. The most frequent B-cell lymphoma in the immunocompetent is also DLBCL. ‘EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly’ (EBV+DLBCL) is a rare but well-recognized DLBCL entity that occurs in the overtly immunocompetent, that has an adverse outcome relative to EBV-negative DLBCL. Unlike PTLD (which is classified as viral latency III), literature suggests EBV+DLBCL is typically latency II, i.e. expression is limited to the immuno-subdominant EBNA1, LMP1 and LMP2 EBV-proteins. If correct, this would be a major impediment for T-cell immunotherapeutic strategies. Unexpectedly we observed EBV+DLBCL-PTLD and EBV+DLBCL both shared features consistent with type III EBV-latency, including expression of the immuno-dominant EBNA3A protein. Extensive analysis showed frequent polymorphisms in EBNA1 and LMP1 functionally defined CD8+ T-cell epitope encoding regions, whereas EBNA3A polymorphisms were very rare making this an attractive immunotherapy target. As with EBV+DLBCL-PTLD, the antigen presenting machinery within lymphomatous nodes was intact. EBV+DLBCL express EBNA3A suggesting it is amenable to immunotherapeutic strategies.

In the shadow of the enlightenment : Le Corbusier, Le Faisceau and Georges Valois

On 9 January 1927 Le Corbusier materialised on the front cover of the Faisceau journal edited by Georges Valois Le Nouveau Siècle which printed the single-point perspective of Le Corbusier’s Plan Voisin and an extract from the architect’s discourse in Urbanisme. In May Le Corbusier presented slides of his urban designs at a fascist rally. These facts have been known ever since the late 1980s when studies emerged in art history that situated Le Corbusier’s philosophy in relation to the birth of twentieth-century fascism in France—an elision in the dominant reading of Le Corbusier’s philosophy, as a project of social utopianism, whose received genealogy is Saint-Simon and Charles Fourier. Le Corbusier participated with the first group in France to call itself fascist, Valois’s militant Faisceau des Combattants et Producteurs, the “Blue Shirts,” inspired by the Italian “Fasci” of Mussolini. Thanks to Mark Antliff, we know the Faisceau did not misappropriate Le Corbusier’s plans, in some remote quasi-symbolic sense, rather Valois’s organisation was premised on the redesign of Paris based on Le Corbusier’s schematic designs. Le Corbusier’s Urbanisme was considered the “prodigious” model for the fascist state Valois called La Cité Française – after his mentor the anarcho-syndicalist Georges Sorel. Valois stated that Le Corbusier’s architectural concepts were “an expression of our profoundest thoughts,” the Faisceau, who “saw their own thought materialized” on the pages of Le Corbusier’s plans. The question I pose is, In what sense is Le Corbusier’s plan a complete representation of La Cité? For Valois, the fascist city “represents the collective will of La Cité” invoking Enlightenment philosophy, operative in Sorel, namely Rousseau, for whom the notion of “collective will” is linked to the idea of political representation: to ‘stand in’ for someone or a group of subjects i.e. the majority vote. The figures in Voisin are not empty abstractions but the result of “the will” of the “combatant-producers” who build the town. Yet, the paradox in anarcho-syndicalist anti-enlightenment thought – and one that became a problem for Le Corbusier – is precisely that of authority and representation. In Le Corbusier’s plan, the “morality of the producers” and “the master” (the transcendent authority that hovers above La Cité) is lattened into a single picture plane, thereby abolishing representation. I argue that La Cité pushed to the limits of formal abstraction by Le Corbusier thereby reverts to the Enlightenment myth it first opposed, what Theodor Adorno would call the dialectic of enlightenment.

Building an augmented map for road risk assessment

Recent road safety statistics show that the decades-long fatalities decreasing trend is stopping and stagnating. Statistics further show that crashes are mostly driven by human error, compared to other factors such as environmental conditions and mechanical defects. Within human error, the dominant error source is perceptive errors, which represent about 50% of the total. The next two sources are interpretation and evaluation, which accounts together with perception for more than 75% of human error related crashes. Those statistics show that allowing drivers to perceive and understand their environment better, or supplement them when they are clearly at fault, is a solution to a good assessment of road risk, and, as a consequence, further decreasing fatalities. To answer this problem, currently deployed driving assistance systems combine more and more information from diverse sources (sensors) to enhance the driver's perception of their environment. However, because of inherent limitations in range and field of view, these systems' perception of their environment remains largely limited to a small interest zone around a single vehicle. Such limitations can be overcomed by increasing the interest zone through a cooperative process. Cooperative Systems (CS), a specific subset of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), aim at compensating for local systems' limitations by associating embedded information technology and intervehicular communication technology (IVC). With CS, information sources are not limited to a single vehicle anymore. From this distribution arises the concept of extended or augmented perception. Augmented perception allows extending an actor's perceptive horizon beyond its "natural" limits not only by fusing information from multiple in-vehicle sensors but also information obtained from remote sensors. The end result of an augmented perception and data fusion chain is known as an augmented map. It is a repository where any relevant information about objects in the environment, and the environment itself, can be stored in a layered architecture. This thesis aims at demonstrating that augmented perception has better performance than noncooperative approaches, and that it can be used to successfully identify road risk. We found it was necessary to evaluate the performance of augmented perception, in order to obtain a better knowledge on their limitations. Indeed, while many promising results have already been obtained, the feasibility of building an augmented map from exchanged local perception information and, then, using this information beneficially for road users, has not been thoroughly assessed yet. The limitations of augmented perception, and underlying technologies, have not be thoroughly assessed yet. Most notably, many questions remain unanswered as to the IVC performance and their ability to deliver appropriate quality of service to support life-saving critical systems. This is especially true as the road environment is a complex, highly variable setting where many sources of imperfections and errors exist, not only limited to IVC. We provide at first a discussion on these limitations and a performance model built to incorporate them, created from empirical data collected on test tracks. Our results are more pessimistic than existing literature, suggesting IVC limitations have been underestimated. Then, we develop a new CS-applications simulation architecture. This architecture is used to obtain new results on the safety benefits of a cooperative safety application (EEBL), and then to support further study on augmented perception. At first, we confirm earlier results in terms of crashes numbers decrease, but raise doubts on benefits in terms of crashes' severity. In the next step, we implement an augmented perception architecture tasked with creating an augmented map. Our approach is aimed at providing a generalist architecture that can use many different types of sensors to create the map, and which is not limited to any specific application. The data association problem is tackled with an MHT approach based on the Belief Theory. Then, augmented and single-vehicle perceptions are compared in a reference driving scenario for risk assessment,taking into account the IVC limitations obtained earlier; we show their impact on the augmented map's performance. Our results show that augmented perception performs better than non-cooperative approaches, allowing to almost tripling the advance warning time before a crash. IVC limitations appear to have no significant effect on the previous performance, although this might be valid only for our specific scenario. Eventually, we propose a new approach using augmented perception to identify road risk through a surrogate: near-miss events. A CS-based approach is designed and validated to detect near-miss events, and then compared to a non-cooperative approach based on vehicles equiped with local sensors only. The cooperative approach shows a significant improvement in the number of events that can be detected, especially at the higher rates of system's deployment.

Context matters : Violence against women and reporting to police in rural, suburban and urban areas

Despite plentiful efforts to identify perpetrator, victim, and incident characteristics correlated with reporting violence against women to police, few studies have addressed the contexts that shape such reporting. Even fewer have examined variations in these contexts across geographic areas. Drawing upon National Crime Victimization Survey data from 1992 through 2009, this paper uses conjunctive analysis of case configurations to identify and investigate the dominant situational contexts of reporting of violence against women to police across rural, suburban, and urban areas. Our findings show that context matters and the importance of incident, perpetrator, and victim characteristics vary across geographic areas.

Understanding cultural competence in a multicultural nursing workforce : registered nurses’ experience in Saudi Arabia

Purpose In Saudi Arabia, the health system is mainly staffed by expatriate nurses from different cultural and linguistic backgrounds. Given the potential risks this situation poses for patient care, it is important to understand how cultural diversity can be effectively managed in this multicultural environment. The purpose of this study was to explore notions of cultural competence with non-Saudi Arabian nurses working in a major hospital in Saudi Arabia. Design Face-to-face, audio-recorded, semistructured interviews were conducted with 24 non-Saudi Arabian nurses. Deductive data collection and analysis were undertaken drawing on Campinha-Bacote’s cultural competence model. The data that could not be explained by this model were coded and analyzed inductively. Findings Nurses within this culturally diverse environment struggled with the notion of cultural competence in terms of each other’s cultural expectations and those of the dominant Saudi culture. Discussion The study also addressed the limitations of Campinha-Bacote’s model, which did not account for all of the nurses’ experiences. Subsequent inductive analysis yielded important themes that more fully explained the nurses’ experiences in this environment. Implications for Practice The findings can inform policy, professional education, and practice in the multicultural Saudi setting.

First flush behaviour in urban residential catchments

The current state of knowledge in relation to first flush does not provide a clear understanding of the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics in influencing this phenomenon. This is attributed to the inconsistent findings from research studies due to the unsatisfactory selection of first flush indicators and how first flush is defined. The research study discussed in this thesis provides the outcomes of a comprehensive analysis on the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on first flush behaviour in residential catchments. Two sets of first flush indicators are introduced in this study. These indicators were selected such that they are representative in explaining in a systematic manner the characteristics associated with first flush. Stormwater samples and rainfall-runoff data were collected and recorded from stormwater monitoring stations established at three urban catchments at Coomera Waters, Gold Coast, Australia. In addition, historical data were also used to support the data analysis. Three water quality parameters were analysed, namely, total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The data analyses were primarily undertaken using multi criteria decision making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Based on the data obtained, the pollutant load distribution curve (LV) was determined for the individual rainfall events and pollutant types. Accordingly, two sets of first flush indicators were derived from the curve, namely, cumulative load wash-off for every 10% of runoff volume interval (interval first flush indicators or LV) from the beginning of the event and the actual pollutant load wash-off during a 10% increment in runoff volume (section first flush indicators or P). First flush behaviour showed significant variation with pollutant types. TSS and TP showed consistent first flush behaviour. However, the dissolved fraction of TN showed significant differences to TSS and TP first flush while particulate TN showed similarities. Wash-off of TSS, TP and particulate TN during the first 10% of the runoff volume showed no influence from corresponding rainfall intensity. This was attributed to the wash-off of weakly adhered solids on the catchment surface referred to as "short term pollutants" or "weakly adhered solids" load. However, wash-off after 10% of the runoff volume showed dependency on the rainfall intensity. This is attributed to the wash-off of strongly adhered solids being exposed when the weakly adhered solids diminish. The wash-off process was also found to depend on rainfall depth at the end part of the event as the strongly adhered solids are loosened due to impact of rainfall in the earlier part of the event. Events with high intensity rainfall bursts after 70% of the runoff volume did not demonstrate first flush behaviour. This suggests that rainfall pattern plays a critical role in the occurrence of first flush. Rainfall intensity (with respect to the rest of the event) that produces 10% to 20% runoff volume play an important role in defining the magnitude of the first flush. Events can demonstrate high magnitude first flush when the rainfall intensity occurring between 10% and 20% of the runoff volume is comparatively high while low rainfall intensities during this period produces low magnitude first flush. For events with first flush, the phenomenon is clearly visible up to 40% of the runoff volume. This contradicts the common definition that first flush only exists, if for example, 80% of the pollutant mass is transported in the first 30% of runoff volume. First flush behaviour for TN is different compared to TSS and TP. Apart from rainfall characteristics, the composition and the availability of TN on the catchment also play an important role in first flush. The analysis confirmed that events with low rainfall intensity can produce high magnitude first flush for the dissolved fraction of TN, while high rainfall intensity produce low dissolved TN first flush. This is attributed to the source limiting behaviour of dissolved TN wash-off where there is high wash-off during the initial part of a rainfall event irrespective of the intensity. However, for particulate TN, the influence of rainfall intensity on first flush characteristics is similar to TSS and TP. The data analysis also confirmed that first flush can occur as high magnitude first flush, low magnitude first flush or non existence of first flush. Investigation of the influence of catchment characteristics on first flush found that the key factors that influence the phenomenon are the location of the pollutant source, spatial distribution of the pervious and impervious surfaces in the catchment, drainage network layout and slope of the catchment. This confirms that first flush phenomenon cannot be evaluated based on a single or a limited set of parameters as a number of catchment characteristics should be taken into account. Catchments where the pollutant source is located close to the outlet, a high fraction of road surfaces, short travel time to the outlet, with steep slopes can produce high wash-off load during the first 50% of the runoff volume. Rainfall characteristics have a comparatively dominant impact on the wash-off process compared to the catchment characteristics. In addition, the pollutant characteristics also should be taken into account in designing stormwater treatment systems due to different wash-off behaviour. Analysis outcomes confirmed that there is a high TSS load during the first 20% of the runoff volume followed by TN which can extend up to 30% of the runoff volume. In contrast, high TP load can exist during the initial and at the end part of a rainfall event. This is related to the composition of TP available for the wash-off.

Mapping the conditions of penal hope

This article examines the conditions of penal hope behind suggestions that the penal expansionism of the last three decades may be at a ‘turning point’. The article proceeds by outlining David Green’s (2013b) suggested catalysts of penal reform and considers how applicable they are in the Australian context. Green’s suggested catalysts are: the cycles and saturation thesis; shifts in the dominant conception of the offender; the global financial crisis (GFC) and budgetary constraints; the drop in crime; the emergence of the prisoner re‐entry movement; apparent shifts in public opinion; the influence of evangelical Christian ideas; and the Right on Crime initiative. The article then considers a number of other possible catalysts or forces: the role of trade unions; the role of courts; the emergence of recidivism as a political issue; the influence of ‘evidence based’/‘what works’ discourse; and the emergence of justice reinvestment (JR). The article concludes with some comments about the capacity of criminology and criminologists to contribute to penal reductionism, offering an optimistic assessment for the prospects of a reflexive criminology that engages in and engenders a wider politics around criminal justice issues.