Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

Status of the beach management units development in Uganda

Fisheries plays a significant and important part in the economy of the country contributing to foreign exchange, food security and employment creation. Lake Victoria contributes over 50% of the total annual fish catch. The purpose of fisheries management is to ensure conservation, protection, proper use, economic efficiency and equitable distribution of the fisheries resources both for the present and future generations through sustainable utilization. The earliest fisheries were mainly at the subsistence level. Fishing gear consisted of locally made basket traps, hooks and seine nets of papyrus. Fishing effort begun to increase with the introduction of more efficient flax gillnets in 1905. Fisheries management in Uganda started in 1914. Before then, the fishery was under some form of traditional management based on the do and don'ts. History shows that the Baganda had strong spiritual beliefs in respect of "god Mukasa" (god of the Lake) and these indirectly contributed to sustainable management of the lake. If a fisherman neglected to comply witt'l any of the ceremonies related to fishing he was expected to encounter a bad omen (Rev. Roscoe, 1965) However, with the introduction of the nylon gill nets, which could catch more fish, traditional management regime broke down. By 1955 the indigenous fish species like Oreochromis variabilis and Oreochromis esculentus had greatly declined in catches. Decline in catches led to introduction of poor fishing methods because of competition for fish. Government in an attempt to regulate the fishing irldustry enacted the first Fisheries Ordinance in 1951 and recruited Fisheries Officers to enforce them. The government put in place minimum net mesh-sizes and Fisheries Officers arrested fishermen without explaining the reason. This led to continued poor fishing practices. The development of government centred management systems led to increased alienation of resource users and to wilful disregard of specific regulations. The realisation of the problems faced by the central management system led to the recognition that user groups need to be actively involved in fisheries management if the systems are to be consistent with sustainable fisheries and be legitimate. Community participation in fisheries management under the Comanagement approach has been adopted in Lake Victoria including other water bodies.

The present status of the fishery for tilapia in Lake Victoria (Uganda)

The commercial fisheries of Lake Victoria are presently dominated by three species: the stocked Lates niloticus and Oreochromis niloticus, and the endemic cyprinid Rastrineobola argentea. The three comprise at least 90% of the commercial catch while the rest of the endemic species mostly occur as by-catch (incidental catch) except in localised areas. Apart from being a major source of food, the three species especially the Nile perch represent the usually recognized main forms of predation, As they exert a "top-down" effect on production, they are important in the trophic dynamics of the Lake Victoria ecosystem. However, another form of predation which is usually unrecognized in the lake productivity mechanisms is one due to fishing mortality. Fishermen essentially behave as predatory elements in the ecosystem. This is manifested in ways that paral1el the effect of fish as predators e.g. some fishermen are habitat restricted and specialised in catching particular species or sizes, others are opportunistic and switch to whatever species (prey) are available which may depend on season, etc. There are also indirect factors that influence fishing mortality as a form of predation e.g. availability on the market of different gears, thefts of nets and of fish from nets, civil strife, market demand etc. The fatter are essentially socioeconomic factors. Application of the principles of fisheries management requires "a data base from which effective options can be generated. It is considered that one of the fundamental requirements for such a data base is information on the spatial distribution of the species fishery. This can be combined with information on landings which can eventually be incorporated into a programme of stock monitoring. The aim of this paper is to highlight information on the Tilapia fishery that may benefit fisheries management.

Towards balanced exploitation and management of the fishery resources of Uganda

A casual study of the hydrological map of Uganda would convince every serious fisherman and fisheater that he is most favoured to be in Uganda. The extent and distribution of the country's aquatic system plus the rich variety of fish species there is promises a fishery potential of considerable magnitude: The open waterways comprised by the Uganda portions of Lakes Victoria, Albert and Edward; and Lakes Kyoga, George plus minor lakes Wamala, Kijanebarora, mutanda, etc. occupy about 15% of the total surface area (91,000 m2; Depart. Land Survey, 1962). Most of the nation's fish supplies are currontly from this source. 1.2. A rich network of permanent and seasonal rivers and streams filling and/or emptying various water systems covers most of Uganda. This aquatic network is associated with a fish fauna whose immense significance as a source of protein is perhaps better appreciated by the local subsistance fisherman and consumer than by the fisheries scientist and manager in this country. Many species of this fish fauna have strong affinities with the open water systems while some are typically riverine. 1.3. Then there are wetlands composed mainly of expanses of swamp, but including some areas of bog. These cover about 2% of the country. While the variety of fish fauna found here is limited by the rather hostile nature of the environment (comparatively de-oxygenated under a canopy of dense stands of emergont vegetation) several specialised fishes e.g. Clarias spp. and Protpterus aethiopicus (Kamongo) occur here. Availability of permanent and seasonal sources of water, well distributed throughout most areas of Uganda, opens up immense potential for a variety of aquaculture practices. However, while active exploitation of much of these fishery resources is currently underway, important questions regarding the magnitudes of the various resource potentials and dynamics, and about suitable levels and modes of exploitation, are yet unanswered. These gaps in knowledge go about the fishery resources of Uganda would hinder formulation of adequate development and management schemes. This short paper examines some of the above problems and suggests some approaches towards balanced oxploitation and management of the fisheries of Uganda.

Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.

Parental exposure to the herbicide diuron results in oxidative DNA damage to germinal cells of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas

Chemical pollution by pesticides has been identified as a possible contributing factor to the massive mortality outbreaks observed in Crassostrea gigas for several years. A previous study demonstrated the vertical transmission of DNA damage by subjecting oyster genitors to the herbicide diuron at environmental concentrations during gametogenesis. This trans-generational effect occurs through damage to genitor-exposed gametes, as measured by the comet-assay. The presence of DNA damage in gametes could be linked to the formation of DNA damage in other germ cells. In order to explore this question, the levels and cell distribution of the oxidized base lesion 8-oxodGuo were studied in the gonads of exposed genitors. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with UV and electrochemical detection analysis showed an increase in 8-oxodGuo levels in both male and female gonads after exposure to diuron. Immunohistochemistry analysis showed the presence of 8-oxodGuo at all stages of male germ cells, from early to mature stages. Conversely, the oxidized base was only present in early germ cell stages in female gonads. These results indicate that male and female genitors underwent oxidative stress following exposure to diuron, resulting in DNA oxidation in both early germ cells and gametes, such as spermatozoa, which could explain the transmission of diuron-induced DNA damage to offspring. Furthermore, immunostaining of early germ cells seems indicates that damages caused by exposure to diuron on germ line not only affect the current sexual cycle but also could affect future gametogenesis.

Genetic diversity assessment of the almond (Prunus dulcis (Mill.) DA Webb) traditional germplasm of Algarve, Portugal, using molecular markers

In this study, 123 almond (Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D. A. Webb) trees identified among traditional orchards in the Algarve region and 53 trees of the local field collection managed by the regional office of the Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture (DRAALG) were assessed using isozyme, inter- single sequence repeat and simple sequence repeat or microsatellite techniques for the evaluation of genetic diversity and genetic relatedness and identification of new accessions for the field collection. The isozyme analysis allowed the distribution of the 176 plants into 13 different classes of enzyme similarity, while the use of DNA markers increased the distribution of the analysed trees among 140 discriminating DNA patterns. Multiple cases of homonymy and synonymy were identified in the local germplasm. Some traditional varieties, such as Lourencinha, appeared to be relatively homogeneous, while other local denominations, e.g. Galamba, included diverse genotypes. Of the 13 commercial varieties analysed in this study, 11 assembled in one major cluster clearly differentiated from the majority of the local genotypes. These results reinforced the perception that the Algarve traditional germplasm constitutes an important repository of genetic diversity, eventually carrying alleles of high agricultural interest such as the recently identified Phomopsis resistance in the traditional variety Barrinho Grado.

Correction of the misclassification of species in the Portuguese collection of Cucurbita pepo L. using DNA markers

In this study, the genetic variability among 130 accessions of the Portuguese germplasm collection of Cucurbita pepo L. maintained at the Banco Portugues de Germoplasma Vegetal was assessed using AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) and RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) techniques for the identification of a genetically diverse core group of accessions for field phenotypic analysis. The surprisingly completely different molecular patterns exhibited by multiple accessions was later confirmed in the distribution of the putative C. pepo plants into two clusters drastically separated at a very low level of genetic similarity (DICE coefficient = 0.37). Additional analyses with RAPD and ISSR (inter single sequence repeat) markers and the introduction of standard genotypes of C. maxima L. and C. moschata L. into the analyses allowed the identification of multiple accessions of the last species wrongly included in the C. pepo collection. This study is a good example of the usefulness of DNA markers in the establishment and management of plant germplasm collections.

Characterization of the susceptibility of the vineyard of Château Margaux to the main fungal-like and diseases

Mestrado Vinifera Euromaster - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Genetic diversity assessment of the almond (Prunus dulcis (Mill.) DA Webb) traditional germplasm of Algarve, Portugal, using molecular markers

In this study, 123 almond (Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D. A. Webb) trees identified among traditional orchards in the Algarve region and 53 trees of the local field collection managed by the regional office of the Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture (DRAALG) were assessed using isozyme, inter- single sequence repeat and simple sequence repeat or microsatellite techniques for the evaluation of genetic diversity and genetic relatedness and identification of new accessions for the field collection. The isozyme analysis allowed the distribution of the 176 plants into 13 different classes of enzyme similarity, while the use of DNA markers increased the distribution of the analysed trees among 140 discriminating DNA patterns. Multiple cases of homonymy and synonymy were identified in the local germplasm. Some traditional varieties, such as Lourencinha, appeared to be relatively homogeneous, while other local denominations, e.g. Galamba, included diverse genotypes. Of the 13 commercial varieties analysed in this study, 11 assembled in one major cluster clearly differentiated from the majority of the local genotypes. These results reinforced the perception that the Algarve traditional germplasm constitutes an important repository of genetic diversity, eventually carrying alleles of high agricultural interest such as the recently identified Phomopsis resistance in the traditional variety Barrinho Grado.

Correction of the misclassification of species in the Portuguese collection of Cucurbita pepo L. using DNA markers

In this study, the genetic variability among 130 accessions of the Portuguese germplasm collection of Cucurbita pepo L. maintained at the Banco Portugues de Germoplasma Vegetal was assessed using AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) and RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) techniques for the identification of a genetically diverse core group of accessions for field phenotypic analysis. The surprisingly completely different molecular patterns exhibited by multiple accessions was later confirmed in the distribution of the putative C. pepo plants into two clusters drastically separated at a very low level of genetic similarity (DICE coefficient = 0.37). Additional analyses with RAPD and ISSR (inter single sequence repeat) markers and the introduction of standard genotypes of C. maxima L. and C. moschata L. into the analyses allowed the identification of multiple accessions of the last species wrongly included in the C. pepo collection. This study is a good example of the usefulness of DNA markers in the establishment and management of plant germplasm collections.

Understanding the Impact of the Property Tax Appeal Process on Assessment Uniformity: Procedures, Structures, and Outcomes

Property taxes serve as a vital revenue source for local governments. The revenues derived from the property tax function as the primary funding source for a variety of critical local public service systems. Property tax appeal systems serve as quasi-administrative-judicial mechanisms intended to assure the public that property tax assessments are correct, fair, and equitable. Despite these important functions, there is a paucity of empirical research related to property tax appeal systems. This study contributes to property tax literature by identifying who participates in the property tax appeal process and examining their motivations for participation. In addition, the study sought to determine whether patterns of use and success in appeal systems affected the distribution of the tax burden. Data were collected by means of a survey distributed to single-family property owners from two Florida counties. In addition, state and county documents were analyzed to determine appeal patterns and examine the impact on assessment uniformity, over a three-year period. The survey data provided contextual evidence that single-family property owners are not as troubled by property taxes as they are by the conduct of local government officials. The analyses of the decision to appeal indicated that more expensive properties and properties excluded from initial uniformity analyses were more likely to be appealed, while properties with homestead exemptions were less likely to be appealed. The value change analyses indicated that appeals are clustered in certain geographical areas; however, these areas do not always experience a greater percentage of the value changes. Interestingly, professional representation did not increase the probability of obtaining a reduction in value. Other relationships between the variables were discovered, but often with weak predictive ability. Findings from the assessment uniformity analyses were also interesting. The results indicated that the appeals mechanisms in both counties improved assessment uniformity. On average, appealed properties exhibited greater horizontal and vertical inequities, as compared to non-appealed properties, prior to the appeals process. After, the appeal process was completed; the indicators of horizontal and vertical equity were largely improved. However, there were some indications of regressivity in the final year of the study.

Conservation biogeography of ecologically interacting species: The case of the Iberian lynx and the European rabbit

Aim To relate the recent Iberian lynx decline to changes in the distribution of the European rabbit after the haemorrhagic disease outbreak of 1989. As Iberian rabbits evolved in two geographically separated lineages, being the recent lynx range practically restricted to the southwestern lineage, we also test if differential range dynamics exists for these lineages, with the consequent implications for lynx conservation and reintroduction planning.

Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain

Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential.We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain.We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10 km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred.We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications