Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

Caracterização das chuvas erosivas em Urussanga, SC, com relação ao padrão de distribuição temporal

O estudo da distribuição temporal de chuvas é realizado com objetivo de caracterizar o padrão de chuva mais frequente. O conhecimento das características físicas das chuvas com relação aos padrões de precipitação permite realizar modelagem matemática de eventos hidrológicos em condições mais próximas às condições reais. O objetivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar as chuvas erosivas em Urussanga, SC, com relação aos padrões hidrológicos de distribuição temporal. Foram usados os pluviogramas da estação meteorológica de Urussanga (latitude 28,31º S, longitude 49,19º W e altitude de 49 m) relativos ao período de outubro de 1980 a março de 2012. As chuvas erosivas foram classificadas em padrões avançado, intermediário e atrasado, se a maior intensidade ocorre no terço de duração inicial, intermediário e final, respectivamente. Foram determinadas as características de altura pluvial, duração da chuva, energia cinética, intensidade máxima em 30 min, erosividade e frequência de chuvas mensais de cada padrão de chuva. Verificou-se a ocorrência de 1.221 chuvas erosivas, das quais 651 com perfil avançado; 416, intermediário; e 154, atrasado. A duração média das chuvas erosivas é de 14,4 h. A média total de intensidade média para as chuvas erosivas foi de 17,4 mm h-1. A maior concentração de chuvas (32,9 %) foi observada no intervalo de duração de 6 a 12 h. Para duração inferior a 18 h, ocorre maior frequência de chuvas do padrão avançado; já para acima de 18 h, as frequências de chuvas do padrão avançado e intermediário são semelhantes.

Exact temporal evolution for some non-linear diffusion process

Exact solutions to FokkerPlanck equations with nonlinear drift are considered. Applications of these exact solutions for concrete models are studied. We arrive at the conclusion that for certain drifts we obtain divergent moments (and infinite relaxation time) if the diffusion process can be extended without any obstacle to the whole space. But if we introduce a potential barrier that limits the diffusion process, moments converge with a finite relaxation time.

Improving Offender Programming, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, June 2012

In 2008, the Iowa Department of Corrections embarked on a comprehensive audit of all institutional andcommunity corrections offender programs that receive corrections funding. The audit focused on the degree towhich each program adheres to evidence-based practices principles (what works best). The audit areas are listedbelow along with some examples of the questions asked about each program:

Temporal and spatial dynamics of benthic invertebrate communities in an alpine glacier-fed alluvial system

Summary The present thesis work focused on the ecology of benthic invertebrates in the proglacial floodplain of the Rhone in the Swiss Alps. The main glacial Rhone River and a smaller glacial tributary, the Mutt River, joined and entered a braiding multi-thread area. A first part concentrated on the disruption of the longitudinal patterns of environmental conditions and benthic invertebrate fauna in the Rhone by its tributary the Mutt. The Mutt had less harsh environmental conditions, higher taxonomic richness and more abundant zoobenthos compared to the Rhone upstream of the confluence. Although the habitat conditions in the main stream were little modified by the tributary, the fauna was richer and more diverse below the confluence. Colonisation from the Mutt induced the occurrence of faunal elements uncommon of glacial streams in the upper Rhone, where water temperature remains below 4°C. Although the glacial Rhone dominated the system with regard to hydrology and certain environmental conditions, the Mutt tributary has to be seen as the faunal driver of the system. The second part of the study concerned the spatio-temporal differentiation of the habitats and the benthic communities along and across the flood plain. No longitudinal differentiation was found. The spatial transversal differentiation of three habitat types with different environmental characteristics was successfully reflected in the spatial variability of benthic assemblages. This typology separated marginal sites of the flood plain, left bank sites under the influence of the Mutt, and the right bank sites under the influence of the Rh6ne. Faunistic spatial differences were emphasized by the quantitative structure of the fauna, richness, abundances and Simpson index of diversity. Seasonal environmental variability was positively related with Simpson index of diversity and the total richness per site. Low flow conditions were the most favourable season for the fauna and November was characterized by low spatial environmental heterogeneity, high spatial heterogeneity of faunal assemblage, maximum taxonomic richness, a particular taxonomic composition, highest abundances, as well as the highest primary food resources. The third part studied the egg development of three species of Ephemeroptera in the laboratory at 1.5 to 7°C and the ecological implications in the field. Species revealed very contrasting development strategies. Baetis alpinus has a synchronous and efficient egg development, which is faster in warmer habitats, enabling it to exploit short periods of favourable conditions in the floodplain. Ecdyonurus picteti has a very long development time slightly decreasing in warmer conditions. The high degree of individual variation suggests a genetic determination of the degree-days demand. Combined with the glacial local conditions, this strategy leads to an extreme delay of hatching and allows it to develop in very unpredictable habitats. Rhithrogena nivata is the second cold adapted species in Ephemeroptera. The incubation duration is long and success largely depends on the timing of hatching and the discharge conditions. This species is able to exploit extremely unstable and cold habitats where other species are limited by low water temperatures. The fourth part dealt with larval development in different habitats of the floodplain. Addition of data on egg development allowed the description of the life histories of the species from oviposition until emergence. Rhithrogena nivata and loyolaea generally have a two-year development, with the first winter passed as eggs and the second one as larvae. Development of Ecdyonurus picteti is difficult to document but appears to be efficient in a harsh and unpredictable environment. Baetis alpinus was studied separately in four habitats of the floodplain system with contrasting thermal regimes. Differences in success and duration of larval development and in growth rates are emphasised. Subvention mechanisms between habitats by migration of young or grown larvae were demonstrated. Development success and persistence of the populations in the system were thus increased. Emergence was synchronised to the detriment of the optimisation of the adult's size and fecundity. These very different development strategies induce a spatial and temporal distribution in the use of food resources and ecological niches. The last part of this work aimed at the synthesis of the characteristics and the ecological features of three distinct compartments of the system that are the upper Rhone, the Mutt and the floodplain. Their particular role as well as their inter-dependence concerning the structure and the dynamics of the benthic communities was emphasised. Résumé Ce travail de thèse est consacré à l'écologie des invertébrés benthiques dans la zone alluviale proglaciaire du Rhône dans les Alpes suisses. Le Rhône, torrent glaciaire principal, reçoit les eaux de la Mutt, affluent glaciaire secondaire, puis pénètre dans une zone de tressage formée de plusieurs bras. La première partie de l'étude se concentre sur la disruption par la Mutt des processus longitudinaux, tant environnementaux que faunistiques, existants dans le Rhône. Les conditions environnementales régnant dans la Mutt sont moins rudes, la richesse taxonomique plus élevée et le zoobenthos plus abondant que dans le Rhône en amont de la confluence. Bien que les conditions environnementales dans le torrent principal soient peu modifiées par l'affluent, la faune s'avère être plus riche et plus diversifiée en aval de la confluence. La colonisation depuis la Mutt permet l'occurrence de taxons inhabituels dans le Rhône en amont de la confluence, où la température de l'eau se maintient en dessous de 4°C. Bien que le Rhône, torrent glaciaire principal, domine le système du point de vu de l'hydrologie et de certains paramètres environnementaux, l'affluent Mutt doit être considéré comme l'élément structurant la faune dans le système. La deuxième partie concerne la différentiation spatiale et temporelle des habitats et des communautés benthiques à travers la plaine alluviale. Aucune différentiation longitudinale n'a été mise en évidence. La différentiation transversale de trois types d'habitats sur la base des caractéristiques environnementales a été confirmée par la variabilité spatiale de la faune. Cette typologie sépare les sites marginaux de la plaine alluviale, ceux sous l'influence de la Mutt (en rive gauche) et ceux sous l'influence du Rhône amont (en rive droite). Les différences spatiales de la faune sont mises en évidence par la structure quantitative de la faune, la richesse, les abondances et l'indice de diversité de Simpson. La variabilité saisonnière du milieu est positivement liée avec l'indice de diversité de Simpson et la richesse totale par site. L'étiage correspond à la période la plus favorable pour la faune et novembre réunit des conditions de faible hétérogénéité spatiale du milieu, de forte hétérogénéité spatiale de la faune, une richesse taxonomique maximale, une composition faunistique particulière, les abondances ainsi que les ressources primaires les plus élevées. La troisième partie est consacrée à l'étude du développement des oeufs de trois espèces d'Ephémères au laboratoire à des températures de 1.5 à 7°C, ainsi qu'aux implications écologiques sur le terrain. Ces espèces présentent des stratégies de développement très contrastées. Baetis alpinus a un développement synchrone et efficace, plus rapide en milieu plus chaud et lui permettant d'exploiter les courtes périodes de conditions favorables. Ecdyonurus picteti présente une durée de développement très longue, diminuant légèrement dans des conditions plus chaudes. L'importante variation interindividuelle suggère un déterminisme génétique de la durée de développement. Cette stratégie, associée aux conditions locales, conduit à un décalage extrême des éclosions et permet à l'espèce de se développer dans des habitats imprévisibles. Rhithrogena nivata est la seconde espèce d'Ephémères présentant une adaptation au froid. L'incubation des oeufs est longue et son succès dépend de la période des éclosions et des conditions hydrologiques. Cette espèce est capable d'exploiter des habitats extrêmement instables et froids, où la température est facteur limitant pour d'autres espèces. La quatrième partie traite du développement larvaire dans différents habitats de la plaine alluviale. Le développement complet est décrit pour les espèces étudiées de la ponte jusqu'à l'émergence. Rhithrogena nivata et loyolaea atteignent généralement le stade adulte en deux ans, le premier hiver étant passé sous forme d'oeuf et le second sous forme de larve. Le développement de Ecdyonurus picteti est difficile à documenter, mais s'avère cependant efficace dans un environnement rude et imprévisible. Baetis alpinus a été étudié séparément dans quatre habitats de la plaine ayant des régimes thermiques contrastés. La réussite et la durée du développement embryonnaire ainsi que les taux de croissance y sont variables. Des mécanismes de subvention entre habitats sont possibles par la migration de larves juvéniles ou plus développées, augmentant ainsi la réussite du développement et le maintien des populations dans le système. L'émergence devient synchrone, au détriment de l'optimisation de la taille et de la fécondité des adultes. Ces stratégies très différentes induisent une distribution spatiale et temporelle dans l'usage des ressources et des niches écologiques. La dernière partie synthétise les caractéristiques écologiques des trois compartiments du système que sont le Rhône amont, la Mutt et la zone alluviale. Leurs rôles particuliers et leurs interdépendances du point de vue de la structure et de la dynamique des communautés benthiques sont mis en avant.

Non-constant discounting in finite horizon: The free terminal time case

This paper derives the HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation for sophisticated agents in a finite horizon dynamic optimization problem with non-constant discounting in a continuous setting, by using a dynamic programming approach. A simple example is used in order to illustrate the applicability of this HJB equation, by suggesting a method for constructing the subgame perfect equilibrium solution to the problem.Conditions for the observational equivalence with an associated problem with constantdiscounting are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the case of free terminal time. Strotz¿s model (an eating cake problem of a nonrenewable resource with non-constant discounting) is revisited.

Heterogeneous discounting in consumption-investment problems. Time consistent solutions

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza un model estocàstic en temps continu en el que l'agent decisor descompta les utilitats instantànies i la funció final amb taxes de preferència temporal constants però diferents. En aquest context es poden modelitzar problemes en els quals, quan el temps s'acosta al moment final, la valoració de la funció final incrementa en comparació amb les utilitats instantànies. Aquest tipus d'asimetria no es pot descriure ni amb un descompte estàndard ni amb un variable. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es deriva l'equació de programació dinàmica estocàstica, les solucions de la qual són equilibris Markovians. Per a aquest tipus de preferències temporals, s'estudia el model clàssic de consum i inversió (Merton, 1971) per a les funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA, comparant els equilibris Markovians amb les solucions inconsistents temporalment. Finalment es discuteix la introducció del temps final aleatori.

Clinical usefulness of temporal artery biopsy.

To assess the diagnostic usefulness of temporal artery biopsy in temporal arteritis (TA) and establish clinical features capable of predicting its positivity we have retrospectively studied the biopsy specimens and the clinical features of 103 patients who had undergone temporal artery biopsy. Temporal artery biopsy reached a positive predictive value of 90.2% with respect to the final diagnosis based on the criteria proposed by Ellis and Ralston and the clinical course. The simultaneous presence of recent onset headache, jaw claudication, and abnormalities of the temporal arteries on physical examination had a specificity of 94.8% with respect to the histological diagnosis and of 100% with respect to final diagnosis. The presence of any of these clinical features, though of little specificity (34.4%), had a sensitivity of 100% with respect to histological diagnosis, selecting a group of patients in whom temporal artery biopsy has more discriminative value.

New Violence Risk Assessment Aids Parole and Offender Programming Decisions, Data Download, Department of Corrections

In recent years, the Department of Corrections has made major strides in assessing offenders’ risk to reoffend, particularly in measuring changes in that risk over time. Earlier this year, the DOC worked with the Board of Parole to develop a risk assessment that focuses on assessing offenders’ risk to commit violent crimes.

A bio-inspired agent-based programming environment for pervasive platforms

Abstract in English : Ubiquitous Computing is the emerging trend in computing systems. Based on this observation this thesis proposes an analysis of the hardware and environmental constraints that rule pervasive platforms. These constraints have a strong impact on the programming of such platforms. Therefore solutions are proposed to facilitate this programming both at the platform and node levels. The first contribution presented in this document proposes a combination of agentoriented programming with the principles of bio-inspiration (Phylogenesys, Ontogenesys and Epigenesys) to program pervasive platforms such as the PERvasive computing framework for modeling comPLEX virtually Unbounded Systems platform. The second contribution proposes a method to program efficiently parallelizable applications on each computing node of this platform. Résumé en Français : Basée sur le constat que les calculs ubiquitaires vont devenir le paradigme de programmation dans les années à venir, cette thèse propose une analyse des contraintes matérielles et environnementale auxquelles sont soumises les plateformes pervasives. Ces contraintes ayant un impact fort sur la programmation des plateformes. Des solutions sont donc proposées pour faciliter cette programmation tant au niveau de l'ensemble des noeuds qu'au niveau de chacun des noeuds de la plateforme. La première contribution présentée dans ce document propose d'utiliser une alliance de programmation orientée agent avec les grands principes de la bio-inspiration (Phylogénèse, Ontogénèse et Épigénèse). Ceci pour répondres aux contraintes de programmation de plateformes pervasives comme la plateforme PERvasive computing framework for modeling comPLEX virtually Unbounded Systems . La seconde contribution propose quant à elle une méthode permettant de programmer efficacement des applications parallélisable sur chaque noeud de calcul de la plateforme

Can postictal memory predict postoperative memory in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy?

We investigated the contribution of postictal memory testing for lateralizing the epileptic focus and predicting memory outcome after surgery for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Forty-five patients with TLE underwent interictal, postictal, and postoperative assessment of verbal and nonverbal memory. Surgery consisted of anterior temporal lobectomy (36), selective isolated amygdalohippocampectomy (6), or amygdalohippocampectomy coupled to lesionectomy (3). Postictal and postoperative but not interictal memory were significantly lower in left TLE than in right TLE. Nonverbal memory showed no significant difference in left TLE versus right TLE in all conditions. Postictal memory was significantly correlated with postoperative memory, but the effect disappeared when the lateralization of the focus was considered. Postictal verbal memory is a useful bedside tool that can help lateralize the epileptic focus. Larger studies are needed to further estimate its predictive value of the postoperative outcome.

Social and temporal organization in an ant colony

Ant colonies are known for their complex and efficient social organization that com-pletely lacks hierarchical structure. However, due to methodological difficulties in follow¬ing all ants of a colony, it was until now impossible to investigate the social and temporal organization of colonies. We developed a tracking system that allows tracking the posi¬tions and orientations of several hundred individually labeled ants continuously, providing for the first time quantitative long term data on all individuals of a colony. These data permit reconstructing trajectories, activity patterns and social networks of all ants in a colony and enable us to investigate ant behavior quantitatively in previously unpreceded ways. By analyzing the spatial positions and social interactions of all ants in six colonies for 41 days we show that ant colonies are organized in groups of nurses, nest patrollers and foragers. Workers of each group were highly interconnected and occupied similar spa¬tial locations in the nest. Groups strongly segregated spatially, and were characterized by unique behavioral signatures. Nurses spent most of their time on the brood. Nest patrollers frequently visited the rubbish pile, and foragers frequently visited the forag¬ing arena. In addition nurses were on average younger than nest patrollers who were, in turn, younger than foragers. We further show that workers had a preferred behav¬ioral trajectory and moved from nursing to nest patrolling, and from nest patrolling to foraging. By analyzing the activity patterns of all ants we show that only a third of all workers in a colony exhibit circadian rhythms and that these rhythms shortened by on av¬erage 42 minutes in constant darkness, thereby demonstrating the presence of a functional endogenous clock. Most rhythmic workers were foragers suggesting that rhythmicity is tightly associated with task. Nurses and nest patrollers were arrhythmic which most likely reflects plasticity of the circadian clock, as isolated workers in many species exhibit circadian rhythmicity. Altogether our results emphasize that ant colonies, despite their chaotic appearance, repose on a strong underlying social and temporal organization. - Les colonies de fourmis sont connues pour leur organisation sociale complexe et effi-cace, charactérisée par un manque absolu de structure hiérarchique. Cependant, puisqu'il est techniquement très difficile de suivre toutes les fourmis d'une colonie, il a été jusqu'à maintenant impossible d'étudier l'organisation sociale et temporelle des colonies de four-mis. Nous avons développé un système qui permet d'extraire en temps réel à partir d'images vidéo les positions et orientations de plusieurs centaines de fourmis marquées individuellement. Nous avons pu ainsi générer pour la première fois des données quanti-tatives et longitudinales relatives à des fourmis appartenant à une colonie. Ces données nous ont permis de reconstruire la trajectoire et l'activité de chaque fourmi ainsi que ses réseaux sociaux. Ceci nous a permis d'étudier de manière exhaustive et objective le com-portement de tous les individus d'une colonie. En analysant les données spatiales et les interactions sociales de toutes les fourmis de six colonies qui ont été filmées pendant 41 jours, nous montrons que les fourmis d'une même colonie se répartissent en trois groupes: nourrices, patrouilleuses et approvisionneuses. Les fourmis d'un même groupe interagis-sent fréquemment et occupent le même espace à l'intérieur du nid. L'espace propre à un groupe se recoupe très peu avec celui des autres. Chaque groupe est caractérisé par un comportement typique. Les nourrices s'affairent surtout autour du couvain. Les pa-trouilleuses font de fréquents déplacements vers le tas d'ordures, et les approvisionneuses sortent souvent du nid. Les nourrices sont en moyenne plus jeunes que les patrouilleuses qui, à leur tour, sont plus jeunes que les approvisionneuses. De plus, nous montrons que les ouvrières changent de tâche au cours de leur vie, passant de nourrice à patrouilleuse puis à approvisionneuse. En analysant l'activité de chaque fourmi, nous montrons que seulement un tiers des ouvrières d'une colonie présente des rythmes circadiens et que ces rythmes diminuent en moyenne de 42 minutes lorsqu'il y a obscurité constante, ce qui démontre ainsi la présence d'une horloge endogène. De plus, la plupart des approvi¬sionneuses ont une activité rythmique alors que les nourrices et patrouilleuses présentent une activité arythmique, ce qui suggère que la rythmicité est étroitement associée à la tâche. L'arythmie des nourrices et patrouilleuses repose probablement sur une plasticité de l'horloge endogène car des ouvrières de nombreuses espèces font preuve d'une ryth¬micité circadienne lorsqu'elles sont isolées de la colonie. Dans l'ensemble nos résultats révèlent qu'une colonie de fourmis se fonde sur une solide organisation sociale et tem¬porelle malgré son apparence chaotique.

Spatio-temporal population genetic structure of the parasitic mite Spinturnix bechsteini is shaped by its own demography and the social system of its bat host.

Information about the population genetic structures of parasites is important for an understanding of parasite transmission pathways and ultimately the co-evolution with their hosts. If parasites cannot disperse independently of their hosts, a parasite's population structure will depend upon the host's spatial distribution. Geographical barriers affecting host dispersal can therefore lead to structured parasite populations. However, how the host's social system affects the genetic structure of parasite populations is largely unknown. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to describe the spatio-temporal population structure of a contact-transmitted parasitic wing mite (Spinturnix bechsteini) and compared it to that of its social host, the Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechsteinii). We observed no genetic differentiation between mites living on different bats within a colony. This suggests that mites can move freely among bats of the same colony. As expected in case of restricted inter-colony dispersal, we observed a strong genetic differentiation of mites among demographically isolated bat colonies. In contrast, we found a strong genetic turnover between years when we investigated the temporal variation of mite haplotypes within colonies. This can be explained with mite dispersal occuring between colonies and bottlenecks of mite populations within colonies. The observed absence of isolation by distance could be the result from genetic drift and/or from mites dispersing even between remote bat colonies, whose members may meet at mating sites in autumn or in hibernacula in winter. Our data show that the population structure of this parasitic wing mite is influenced by its own demography and the peculiar social system of its bat host.