A commentary on climate change, stone decay dynamics and the ‘greening’ of natural stone buildings: new perspectives on ‘deep wetting’

Environmental controls on stone decay processes are rapidly changing as a result of changing climate. UKCP09 projections for the 2020s (2010–2039) indicate that over much of the UK seasonality of precipitation will increase. Summer dryness and winter wetness are both set to increase, the latter linked to projected precipitation increases in autumn and spring months. If so, this could increase the time that stone structures remain wet and possibly the depth of moisture penetration, and it appears that building stone in Northern Ireland has already responded through an increased incidence of algal ‘greening’.This paper highlights the need for understanding the effects of climate change through a series of studies of largely sandstone structures. Current and projected climatic trends are therefore considered to have aesthetic, physical and chemical implications that are not currently built into our models of sandstone decay, especially with respect to the role played by deep-seated wetness on sandstone deterioration and decay progression and the feedbacks associated with, for example surface algal growth. In particular,it is proposed that algal biofilms will aid moisture retention and further facilitate moisture and dissolved salt penetration to depth. Thus, whilst the outer surface of stone may continue to experience frequent wetting and drying associated with individual precipitation events, the latter is less likely to be complete, and the interiors of building blocks may only experience wetting/drying in response to seasonal cycling. A possible consequence of deeper salt penetration could be a delay in the onset of surface deterioration,but more rapid and effective retreat once it commences as decay mechanisms ‘tap into a reservoir of deep salt’.

Climate change-linked range expansion of Nathusius' pipistrelle bat, Pipistrellus nathusii (Keyserling & Blasius, 1839)

Aim To examine the effect of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of Pipistrellus nathusii (Nathusius' pipistrelle) in the United Kingdom (UK).Location We modelled habitat and climatic associations of P. nathusii in the UK and applied this model to the species' historical range in continental Europe.Methods A binomial logistic regression model was constructed relating the occurrence of P. nathusii to climate and habitat characteristics using historical species occurrence records (1940-2006) and CORINE land cover data. This model was applied to historical and projected climate data to examine changes in suitable range (1940-2080) of this species. We tested the predictive ability of the model with known records in the UK after 2006 and applied the model to the species' known range in Europe.Results The distribution of P. nathusii was related positively to the area of water bodies, woodland and small areas of urbanization, and negatively related to the area of peat/heathland. Species records were associated with higher minimum temperatures, low seasonal variation in temperature and intermediate rainfall. We found that suitable areas have existed in the UK since the 1940s and that these have expanded. The model had high predictive power when applied to new records after 2006, with a correct classification rate of 70%, estimated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Based on climate projections, our model suggests a potential twofold increase in the area suitable for P. nathusii in the UK by 2050. The single most influential climate variable contributing to range increase was the projected increase in minimum temperature. When applied to Europe, the model predictions had best predictive capability of known records in western areas of the species' range, where P. nathusii is present during the winter.Main conclusions We show that a mobile, migratory species has adapted its range in response to recent climate change on a continental scale. We believe this may be the first study to demonstrate a case of range change linked to contemporary climate change in a mammal species in Europe.

Late Holocene climate change in central Sweden inferred from lacustrine stable isotope data

Stable isotopes (delta O-18 and delta C-13) of lacustrine carbonates (Chara spp. algae and Pisidium spp. molluscs) from a lake sedimentary sequence in central Sweden were analysed to infer changes in lake hydrology and climate during the late Holocene. Results from analysis of lake water isotopes (delta O-18 and delta H-2) show that Lake Blektjarnen water isotope composition is responsive to the balance between evaporation and input water (E/l ratio). A high E/l ratio results from a dry and probably warmer climate, decreasing the relative importance of precipitation input. Under such conditions evaporation and atmospheric equilibration probably enrich lake water in O-18 and C-13, respectively, which is reflected in the isotopic composition of the carbonates in the lake. From the relatively positive Chara delta O-18 values we infer that conditions were dry and warm between 4400 and 4000 cal. a BP, whereas more negative values indicate that conditions were wetter and probably cooler between 4000 and 3000 cal. a BP. A drier climate is inferred from more positive values between 2500 and 1000 cal. a BP. However, a successive depletion after ca. 1750 cal. a BP, also detected in several other delta O-18 records (carbonate and diatom), suggest increasingly wetter conditions in Scandinavia after that time, which is probably related to increased strength of the zonal flow.

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two singlecopy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.

Northern Ireland's Consent to the Climate Change Act 2008: An Illusion?

This is the first in a two-part analysis of Northern Ireland’s engagement with the climate governance regime created by the UK Climate Change Act 2008. It contends that UK devolution has shaped this national regime and may itself be shaped by the national low carbon transition, particularly in the case of the UK’s most devolved region. In essence, while Northern Ireland’s consent to the application of the Act appeared to represent a long-term commitment to share power in the interests of present and future generations and thus to devolution itself, this first article argues that it was also potentially illusory. The second article argues that making an effective commitment to climate governance will require its devolved administration to allow constitutional arrangements designed for conflict resolution to mature. Failure to do so will have important implications for the UK’s putative ‘national’ low carbon transition and the longer term viability of devolution in the region.

Climate change, Hans Jonas and indirect investors

This article considers how corporate behaviour in relation to climate change might be reconfigured and the role that indirect investors might play in this reconfiguring. The article suggests that the consequences of climate change are serious enough that indirect investors might be prevailed upon, using a model of behaviour suggested by the work of Hans Jonas, to pressure institutional investors into demanding changes in corporate policy towards climate change. Jonas' work represents a plea for the recognition and acceptance of responsibility in the face of nature's vulnerability and humanity's power over technology. The article suggests that this ethic can be operationalised in relation to corporate governance by building on the changes in the pattern of investment holdings that have taken place in large public companies in the preceding two decades or so. The idea is to appeal to individuals who may perceive themselves as currently being outsiders – or at least only distant stakeholders in relation to the corporation – to realise the responsibility vested in them as beneficiaries through their interest in pension funds, life assurance policies, annuities and other arm's-length financial arrangements with corporations. The hope is that these individuals may, through the influence of a model of responsibility, become active investors and beneficiaries interested in corporate practices that impact on climate change and, encourage others to do likewise.

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes using Madagascar as an example. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar from 2000-2080 in three climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 hectares of forest cover for each species, and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each climate scenario. We interviewed natural forest restoration project managers and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species’ ranges, the overlap between species’ ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species’ ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha), avoidance of forest degradation (loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha), avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha), and establishment of forest on non-forested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that though forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.