Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

Evaluation of 2D image reconstruction using fan-beam FBP algorithm with no backprojection weight from WLP completed truncated projection data

This paper presents the image reconstruction using the fan-beam filtered backprojection (FBP) algorithm with no backprojection weight from windowed linear prediction (WLP) completed truncated projection data. The image reconstruction from truncated projections aims to reconstruct the object accurately from the available limited projection data. Due to the incomplete projection data, the reconstructed image contains truncation artifacts which extends into the region of interest (ROI) making the reconstructed image unsuitable for further use. Data completion techniques have been shown to be effective in such situations. We use windowed linear prediction technique for projection completion and then use the fan-beam FBP algorithm with no backprojection weight for the 2-D image reconstruction. We evaluate the quality of the reconstructed image using fan-beam FBP algorithm with no backprojection weight after WLP completion.

Relaxation: Application to the matrix reconstruction problem

This report describes some preliminary experiments on the use of the relaxation technique for the reconstruction of the elements of a matrix given their various directional sums (or projections).

Climate change and crop yields in the Indian Cardamom Hills, 1978-2007 CE

In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978-2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37A degrees C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June-September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee (Coffea arabica), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea (Thea sinensis) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis.

Network Reconstruction from dynamic data

Over the past decade, many powerful data mining techniques have been developed to analyze temporal and sequential data. The time is now fertile for addressing problems of larger scope under the purview of temporal data mining. The fourth SIGKDD workshop on temporal data mining focused on the question: What can we infer about the structure of a complex dynamical system from observed temporal data? The goals of the workshop were to critically evaluate the need in this area by bringing together leading researchers from industry and academia, and to identify promising technologies and methodologies for doing the same. We provide a brief summary of the workshop proceedings and ideas arising out of the discussions.

Surface reconstruction from disparate shading: an integration of shape-from-shading and stereopsis

A cooperative integration of stereopsis and shape-from-shading is presented. The integration makes the process of D surface reconstruction better constrained and more reliable. It also obviates the need for surface boundary conditions, and explicit information about the surface albedo and the light source direction, which can now be estimated in an iterative manner

Atmospheric chemistry and climate

Atmospheric chemistry is a branch of atmospheric science where major focus is the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Knowledge of atmospheric composition is essential due to its interaction with (solar and terrestrial) radiation and interactions of atmospheric species (gaseous and particulate matter) with living organisms. Since atmospheric chemistry covers a vast range of topics, in this article the focus is on the chemistry of atmospheric aerosols with special emphasis on the Indian region. I present a review of the current state of knowledge of aerosol chemistry in India and propose future directions.

A pseudo-time EnKF incorporating shape based reconstruction for diffuse optical tomography

Purpose: The authors aim at developing a pseudo-time, sub-optimal stochastic filtering approach based on a derivative free variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for solving the inverse problem of diffuse optical tomography (DOT) while making use of a shape based reconstruction strategy that enables representing a cross section of an inhomogeneous tumor boundary by a general closed curve. Methods: The optical parameter fields to be recovered are approximated via an expansion based on the circular harmonics (CH) (Fourier basis functions) and the EnKF is used to recover the coefficients in the expansion with both simulated and experimentally obtained photon fluence data on phantoms with inhomogeneous inclusions. The process and measurement equations in the pseudo-dynamic EnKF (PD-EnKF) presently yield a parsimonious representation of the filter variables, which consist of only the Fourier coefficients and the constant scalar parameter value within the inclusion. Using fictitious, low-intensity Wiener noise processes in suitably constructed ``measurement'' equations, the filter variables are treated as pseudo-stochastic processes so that their recovery within a stochastic filtering framework is made possible. Results: In our numerical simulations, we have considered both elliptical inclusions (two inhomogeneities) and those with more complex shapes (such as an annular ring and a dumbbell) in 2-D objects which are cross-sections of a cylinder with background absorption and (reduced) scattering coefficient chosen as mu(b)(a)=0.01mm(-1) and mu('b)(s)=1.0mm(-1), respectively. We also assume mu(a) = 0.02 mm(-1) within the inhomogeneity (for the single inhomogeneity case) and mu(a) = 0.02 and 0.03 mm(-1) (for the two inhomogeneities case). The reconstruction results by the PD-EnKF are shown to be consistently superior to those through a deterministic and explicitly regularized Gauss-Newton algorithm. We have also estimated the unknown mu(a) from experimentally gathered fluence data and verified the reconstruction by matching the experimental data with the computed one. Conclusions: The PD-EnKF, which exhibits little sensitivity against variations in the fictitiously introduced noise processes, is also proven to be accurate and robust in recovering a spatial map of the absorption coefficient from DOT data. With the help of shape based representation of the inhomogeneities and an appropriate scaling of the CH expansion coefficients representing the boundary, we have been able to recover inhomogeneities representative of the shape of malignancies in medical diagnostic imaging. (C) 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine. [DOI: 10.1118/1.3679855]

Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols

Black carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation and decrease planetary albedo, and thus can contribute to climate warming. In this paper, the dependence of equilibrium climate response on the altitude of black carbon is explored using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The simulations model aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, but not indirect effects. Aerosol concentrations are prescribed and not interactive. It is shown that climate response of black carbon is highly dependent on the altitude of the aerosol. As the altitude of black carbon increases, surface temperatures decrease; black carbon near the surface causes surface warming, whereas black carbon near the tropopause and in the stratosphere causes surface cooling. This cooling occurs despite increasing planetary absorption of sunlight (i.e. decreasing planetary albedo). We find that the trend in surface air temperature response versus the altitude of black carbon is consistent with our calculations of radiative forcing after the troposphere, stratosphere, and land surface have undergone rapid adjustment, calculated as ``regressed'' radiative forcing. The variation in climate response from black carbon at different altitudes occurs largely from different fast climate responses; temperature dependent feedbacks are not statistically distinguishable. Impacts of black carbon at various altitudes on the hydrological cycle are also discussed; black carbon in the lowest atmospheric layer increases precipitation despite reductions in solar radiation reaching the surface, whereas black carbon at higher altitudes decreases precipitation.

Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems

A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Practical fully three-dimensional reconstruction algorithms for diffuse optical tomography

We have developed an efficient fully three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction algorithm for diffuse optical tomography (DOT). The 3D DOT, a severely ill-posed problem, is tackled through a pseudodynamic (PD) approach wherein an ordinary differential equation representing the evolution of the solution on pseudotime is integrated that bypasses an explicit inversion of the associated, ill-conditioned system matrix. One of the most computationally expensive parts of the iterative DOT algorithm, the reevaluation of the Jacobian in each of the iterations, is avoided by using the adjoint-Broyden update formula to provide low rank updates to the Jacobian. In addition, wherever feasible, we have also made the algorithm efficient by integrating along the quadratic path provided by the perturbation equation containing the Hessian. These algorithms are then proven by reconstruction, using simulated and experimental data and verifying the PD results with those from the popular Gauss-Newton scheme. The major findings of this work are as follows: (i) the PD reconstructions are comparatively artifact free, providing superior absorption coefficient maps in terms of quantitative accuracy and contrast recovery; (ii) the scaling of computation time with the dimension of the measurement set is much less steep with the Jacobian update formula in place than without it; and (iii) an increase in the data dimension, even though it renders the reconstruction problem less ill conditioned and thus provides relatively artifact-free reconstructions, does not necessarily provide better contrast property recovery. For the latter, one should also take care to uniformly distribute the measurement points, avoiding regions close to the source so that the relative strength of the derivatives for measurements away from the source does not become insignificant. (c) 2012 Optical Society of America

Linearization and Reconstruction of Non-linear Diffuse Optical Tomographic Image

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is one of the ways to probe highly scattering media such as tissue using low-energy near infra-red light (NIR) to reconstruct a map of the optical property distribution. The interaction of the photons in biological tissue is a non-linear process and the phton transport through the tissue is modelled using diffusion theory. The inversion problem is often solved through iterative methods based on nonlinear optimization for the minimization of a data-model misfit function. The solution of the non-linear problem can be improved by modeling and optimizing the cost functional. The cost functional is f(x) = x(T)Ax - b(T)x + c and after minimization, the cost functional reduces to Ax = b. The spatial distribution of optical parameter can be obtained by solving the above equation iteratively for x. As the problem is non-linear, ill-posed and ill-conditioned, there will be an error or correction term for x at each iteration. A linearization strategy is proposed for the solution of the nonlinear ill-posed inverse problem by linear combination of system matrix and error in solution. By propagating the error (e) information (obtained from previous iteration) to the minimization function f(x), we can rewrite the minimization function as f(x; e) = (x + e)(T) A(x + e) - b(T)(x + e) + c. The revised cost functional is f(x; e) = f(x) + e(T)Ae. The self guided spatial weighted prior (e(T)Ae) error (e, error in estimating x) information along the principal nodes facilitates a well resolved dominant solution over the region of interest. The local minimization reduces the spreading of inclusion and removes the side lobes, thereby improving the contrast, localization and resolution of reconstructed image which has not been possible with conventional linear and regularization algorithm.