Risk factors for potentially avoidable readmissions due to end-of-life care issues

BACKGROUND Repeated hospitalizations are frequent toward the end of life, where each admission should be an opportunity to initiate advance-care planning to high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for having a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues among all medical patients. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING/PATIENTS All 10,275 consecutive discharges from any medical service of an academic tertiary medical center in Boston, Massachusetts between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. MEASUREMENTS A random sample of all the potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions was independently reviewed by 9 trained physicians to identify the ones due to end-of-life issues. RESULTS Among 534, 30-day potentially avoidable readmission cases reviewed, 80 (15%) were due to an end-of-life care issue. In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were significantly associated with a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues: number of admissions in the previous 12 months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10 per admission, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.20), neoplasm (OR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.85-10.98), opiate medications at discharge (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.29-4.07), Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR: 1.16 per 5-point increase, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). The discrimination of the model (C statistic) was 0.85. CONCLUSIONS In a medical population, we identified 4 main risk factors that were significantly associated with 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues, producing a model with very good to excellent discrimination. Patients with these risk factors might benefit from palliative care consultation prior to discharge in order to improve end-of-life care and possibly reduce unnecessary rehospitalizations.

Reducing fall risk in the elderly: risk factors and fall prevention, a systematic review

Falls in the elderly are a major source of injury resulting in disability and hospitalization. They have a significant impact on individual basis (loss of quality of live, nursing home admissions) and social basis (healthcare costs). Even though falls in the elderly are common there are some well studied risk factors. Special emphasis should be put on sarcopenia/frailty, polypharmacy, multimorbidity, vitamin D status and home hazards. There are several well evaluated fall prevention approaches that either target a single fall risk factor or focus on multiple risk factors. It has to be kept in mind that not all fall prevention strategies are useful for all patients as for example dietary substitution of vitamin D is only recommended in people with increased risk for a vitamin D deficiency. Home hazard reduction strategies are more effective when combined with other fall prevention approaches such as for example exercise programs. In conclusion elderly patients should routinely be screened for relevant risk factors and if need an indiviudally targeted fall prevention program compiled.

Risk factors for colic in horses hospitalized for ocular disease

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence of colic and risk factors for colic in equids hospitalized for ocular disease. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. Animals-337 equids (317 horses, 19 ponies, and 1 donkey) hospitalized for ocular disease. PROCEDURES: Medical records of equids hospitalized for > 24 hours for treatment of ocular disease between January 1997 and December 2008 were reviewed. Information from only the first hospitalization was used for equids that were hospitalized for ocular disease on more than 1 occasion. Information gathered included the signalment, the type of ocular lesion and the treatment administered, and any colic signs recorded during hospitalization as well as the severity, presumptive diagnosis, and treatment of the colic. Statistical analysis was used to identify any risk factors for colic in equids hospitalized for ocular disease. RESULTS: 72 of 337 (21.4%) equids hospitalized for ocular disease had signs of colic during hospitalization. Most equids (59.7% [43/72]) had mild signs of colic, and most (87.5% [63/72]) were treated medically. Ten of 72 (13.9%) equids with colic had a cecal impaction. Risk factors for colic in equids hospitalized for ocular disease were age (0 to 1 year and ≥ 21 years) and an increased duration of hospitalization (≥ 8 days). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: There was a high incidence of colic in equids hospitalized with ocular disease in this study. Findings from this study may help identify equids at risk for development of colic and thereby help direct implementation of prophylactic measures.

Babesia spp. in European wild ruminant species: parasite diversity and risk factors for infection.

Babesia are tick-borne parasites that are increasingly considered as a threat to animal and public health. We aimed to assess the role of European free-ranging wild ruminants as maintenance mammalian hosts for Babesia species and to determine risk factors for infection. EDTA blood was collected from 222 roe deer (Capreolus c. capreolus), 231 red deer (Cervus e. elaphus), 267 Alpine chamois (Rupicapra r. rupicapra) and 264 Alpine ibex (Capra i. ibex) from all over Switzerland and analysed by PCR with pan-Babesia primers targeting the 18S rRNA gene, primers specific for B. capreoli and Babesia sp. EU1, and by sequencing. Babesia species, including B. divergens, B. capreoli, Babesia sp. EU1, Babesia sp. CH1 and B. motasi, were detected in 10.7% of all samples. Five individuals were co-infected with two Babesia species. Infection with specific Babesia varied widely between host species. Cervidae were significantly more infected with Babesia spp. than Caprinae. Babesia capreoli and Babesia sp. EU1 were mostly found in roe deer (prevalences 17.1% and 7.7%, respectively) and B. divergens and Babesia sp. CH1 only in red deer. Factors significantly associated with infection were low altitude and young age. Identification of Babesia sp. CH1 in red deer, co-infection with multiple Babesia species and infection of wild Caprinae with B. motasi and Babesia sp. EU1 are novel findings. We propose wild Caprinae as spillover or accidental hosts for Babesia species but wild Cervidae as mammalian reservoir hosts for B. capreoli, possibly Babesia sp. EU1 and Babesia sp. CH1, whereas their role regarding B. divergens is more elusive.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

Risk factors for depressed mood amongst a community dwelling older age population in England: cross-sectional survey data from the PRO-AGE study.

BACKGROUND The Quality and Outcomes Framework in the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Service previously highlighted case finding of depression amongst patients with diabetes or coronary heart disease. However, depression in older people remains under-recognized. Comprehensive data for analyses of the association of depression in older age with other health and functional measures, and demographic factors from community populations within England, are lacking. METHODS Secondary analyses of cross-sectional baseline survey data from the England arm of a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal for older people in Europe; PRO-AGE study. Data from 1085 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years or more from three group practices in suburban London contributed to this study. Depressed mood was ascertained from the 5-item Mental Health Inventory Screening test. Exploratory multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the strongest associations of depressed mood with a previous diagnosis of a specified physical/mental health condition, health and functional measures, and demographic factors. RESULTS Depressed mood occurred in 14% (155/1085) of participants. A previous diagnoses of depression (OR 3.39; P < 0.001) and poor vision as determined from a Visual Function Questionnaire (OR 2.37; P = 0.001) were amongst the strongest factors associated with depressed mood that were independent of functional impairment, other co-morbidities, and demographic factors. A subgroup analyses on those without a previous diagnosis of depression also indicated that within this group, poor vision (OR 2.51; P = 0.002) was amongst the strongest independent factors associated with depressed mood. CONCLUSIONS Previous case-finding strategies in primary care focussed on heart disease and diabetes but health-related conditions other than coronary heart disease and diabetes are also associated with an increased risk for depression. Complex issues of multi-morbidity occur within aging populations. 'Risk' factors that appeared stronger than those, such as, diabetes and coronary heart disease that until recently prompted for screening in the UK due to the QOF, were identified, and independent of other morbidities associated with depressed mood. From the health and functional factors investigated, amongst the strongest factors associated with depressed mood was poor vision. Consideration to case finding for depressed mood among older people with visual impairment might be justified.

Risk factors for borderline personality disorder in treatment seeking patients with a substance use disorder: an international multicenter study

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) and substance use disorders (SUDs) often co-occur, partly because they share risk factors. In this international multicenter study, risk factors for BPD were examined for SUD patients. In total, 1,205 patients were comprehensively examined by standardized interviews and questionnaires on psychiatric diagnosis and risk factors, and it was found that 1,033 (85.7%) had SUDs without BPD (SUD) and 172 (14.3%) had SUD with BPD (SUD + BPD). SUD + BPD patients were significantly younger, more often females and more often diagnosed with comorbid adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder. SUD + BPD patients did not differ from SUD patients on most risk factors typical for SUD such as maternal use of drugs during pregnancy or parents having any SUD. However, SUD + BPD patients did have a higher risk of having experienced emotional and physical abuse, neglect, or family violence in childhood compared to SUD patients, suggesting that child abuse and family violence are BPD-specific risk factors in patients with SUDs. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A logarithmic efficient estimator of the probability of ruin with recuperation for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

Risk factors, aetiology and outcome of ischaemic stroke in young adults: the Swiss Young Stroke Study (SYSS).

Ischaemic stroke (IS) in young adults has been increasingly recognized as a serious health condition. Stroke aetiology is different in young adults than in the older population. This study aimed to investigate aetiology and risk factors, and to search for predictors of outcome and recurrence in young IS patients. We conducted a prospective multicentre study of consecutive IS patients aged 16-55 years. Baseline demographic data, risk factors, stroke aetiology including systematic genetic screening for Fabry disease and severity were assessed and related to functional neurological outcome (modified Rankin Scale, mRS), case fatality, employment status, place of residence, and recurrent cerebrovascular events at 3 months. In 624 IS patients (60 % men), median age was 46 (IQR 39-51) years and median NIHSS on admission 3 (IQR 1-8). Modifiable vascular risk factors were found in 73 %. Stroke aetiology was mostly cardioembolism (32 %) and of other defined origin (24 %), including cervicocerebral artery dissection (17 %). Fabry disease was diagnosed in 2 patients (0.3 %). Aetiology remained unknown in 20 %. Outcome at 3 months was favourable (mRS 0-1) in 61 % and fatal in 2.9 %. Stroke severity (p < 0.001) and diabetes mellitus (p = 0.023) predicted unfavourable outcome. Stroke recurrence rate at 3 months was 2.7 %. Previous stroke or TIA predicted recurrent cerebrovascular events (p = 0.012). In conclusion, most young adults with IS had modifiable vascular risk factors, emphasizing the importance of prevention strategies. Outcome was unfavourable in more than a third of patients and was associated with initial stroke severity and diabetes mellitus. Previous cerebrovascular events predicted recurrent ones.

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on severity of peripheral artery disease

OBJECTIVE The development of peripheral artery disease is affected by the presence of cardiovascular risk factors. It is unclear, whether particular risk factors are leading to different clinical stages of peripheral artery disease. The aim of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to assess the association of cardiovascular risk factors with the presence of critical limb ischaemia. METHODS The study cohort was derived from a consecutive registry of patients undergoing endovascular therapy in a tertiary referral centre between January 2000 and April 2014. Patients undergoing first-time endovascular intervention for chronic peripheral artery disease of the lower extremities were included. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the association of age, sex, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, smoking, and renal insufficiency with critical limb ischaemia vs. intermittent claudication. RESULTS A total of 3406 patients were included in the study (mean age 71.7 ± 11.8 years, 2075 [61%] male). There was a significant association of age (OR 1.67, 95%-CI 1.53-1.82, p < 0.001), male gender (OR 1.23, 95%-CI 1.04-1.47, p = 0.016), diabetes (OR 1.99, 95%-CI 1.68-2.36, p < 0.001) and renal insufficiency (OR 1.62, 95%-CI 1.35-1.96, p < 0.001) with the likelihood of critical limb ischaemia. Smoking was associated with intermittent claudication rather than critical limb ischaemia (OR 0.78, 95%-CI 0.65-0.94, p = 0.010), while hypertension and dyslipidaemia did not show an association with critical limb ischaemia. CONCLUSIONS In peripheral artery disease patients undergoing first-time endovascular treatment, age, male gender, diabetes, and renal insufficiency were the strongest predictors for the presence of critical limb ischaemia.