An investigation on the accuracy of regional ocean models through field trials

Recent efforts in mission planning for underwater vehicles have utilised predictive models to aid in navigation, optimal path planning and drive opportunistic sampling. Although these models provide information at a unprecedented resolutions and have proven to increase accuracy and effectiveness in multiple campaigns, most are deterministic in nature. Thus, predictions cannot be incorporated into probabilistic planning frameworks, nor do they provide any metric on the variance or confidence of the output variables. In this paper, we provide an initial investigation into determining the confidence of ocean model predictions based on the results of multiple field deployments of two autonomous underwater vehicles. For multiple missions conducted over a two-month period in 2011, we compare actual vehicle executions to simulations of the same missions through the Regional Ocean Modeling System in an ocean region off the coast of southern California. This comparison provides a qualitative analysis of the current velocity predictions for areas within the selected deployment region. Ultimately, we present a spatial heat-map of the correlation between the ocean model predictions and the actual mission executions. Knowing where the model provides unreliable predictions can be incorporated into planners to increase the utility and application of the deterministic estimations.

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to the sequential design for discriminating between rival continuous data models

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

Moving beyond transition pedagogy: Maturity models and student engagement

Australian higher education institutions (HEIs) have entered a new phase of regulation and accreditation which includes performance-based funding relating to the participation and retention of students from social and cultural groups previously underrepresented in higher education. However, in addressing these priorities, it is critical that HEIs do not further disadvantage students from certain groups by identifying them for attention because of their social or cultural backgrounds, circumstances which are largely beyond the control of students. In response, many HEIs are focusing effort on university-wide approaches to enhancing the student experience because such approaches will enhance the engagement, success and retention of all students, and in doing so, particularly benefit those students who come from underrepresented groups. Measuring and benchmarking student experiences and engagement that arise from these efforts is well supported by extensive collections of student experience survey data. However no comparable instrument exists that measures the capability of institutions to influence and/or enhance student experiences where capability is an indication of how well an organisational process does what it is designed to do (Rosemann & de Bruin, 2005). This paper proposes that the concept of a maturity model (Marshall, 2010; Paulk, 1999) may be useful as a way of assessing the capability of HEIs to provide and implement student engagement, success and retention activities. We will describe the Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM), (Clarke, Nelson & Stoodley, 2012; Nelson, Clarke & Stoodley, 2012) we are currently investigating. We will discuss if our research may address the current gap by facilitating the development of an SESR-MM instrument that aims (i) to enable institutions to assess the capability of their current student engagement and retention programs and strategies to influence and respond to student experiences within the institution; and (ii) to provide institutions with the opportunity to understand various practices across the sector with a view to further improving programs and practices relevant to their context. The first aim of our research is to extend the generational approach which has been useful in considering the evolutionary nature of the first year experience (FYE) (Wilson, 2009). Three generations have been identified and explored: First generation approaches that focus on co-curricular strategies (e.g. orientation and peer programs); Second generation approaches that focus on curriculum (e.g. pedagogy, curriculum design, and learning and teaching practice); and third generation approaches—also referred to as transition pedagogy—that focus on the production of an institution-wide integrated holistic intentional blend of curricular and co-curricular activities (Kift, Nelson & Clarke, 2010). The second aim of this research is to move beyond assessments of students’ experiences to focus on assessing institutional processes and their capability to influence student engagement. In essence, we propose to develop and use the maturity model concept to produce an instrument that will indicate the capability of HEIs to manage and improve student engagement, success and retention programs and strategies. References Australian Council for Educational Research. (n.d.). Australasian Survey of Student Engagement. Retrieved from http://www.acer.edu.au/research/ausse/background Clarke, J., Nelson, K., & Stoodley, I. (2012, July). The Maturity Model concept as framework for assessing the capability of higher education institutions to address student engagement, success and retention: New horizon or false dawn? A Nuts & Bolts presentation at the 15th International Conference on the First Year in Higher Education, “New Horizons,” Brisbane, Australia. Kift, S., Nelson, K., & Clarke, J. (2010) Transition pedagogy - a third generation approach to FYE: A case study of policy and practice for the higher education sector. The International Journal of the First Year in Higher Education, 1(1), pp. 1-20. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. (n.d.). The University Experience Survey. Advancing quality in higher education information sheet. Retrieved from http://www.deewr.gov.au/HigherEducation/Policy/Documents/University_Experience_Survey.pdf Marshall, S. (2010). A quality framework for continuous improvement of e-Learning: The e-Learning Maturity Model. Journal of Distance Education, 24(1), 143-166. Nelson, K., Clarke, J., & Stoodley, I. (2012). An exploration of the Maturity Model concept as a vehicle for higher education institutions to assess their capability to address student engagement. A work in progress. Submitted for publication. Paulk, M. (1999). Using the Software CMM with good judgment, ASQ Software Quality Professional, 1(3), 19-29. Wilson, K. (2009, June–July). The impact of institutional, programmatic and personal interventions on an effective and sustainable first-year student experience. Keynote address presented at the 12th Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, “Preparing for Tomorrow Today: The First Year as Foundation,” Townsville, Australia. Retrieved from http://www.fyhe.com.au/past_papers/papers09/ppts/Keithia_Wilson_paper.pdf

Quantitative studies of lower motor neuron degeneration in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis : Evidence for exponential decay of motor unit numbers and greatest rate of loss at the site of onset

Objective: To use our Bayesian method of motor unit number estimation (MUNE) to evaluate lower motor neuron degeneration in ALS. Methods: In subjects with ALS we performed serial MUNE studies. We examined the repeatability of the test and then determined whether the loss of MUs was fitted by an exponential or Weibull distribution. Results: The decline in motor unit (MU) numbers was well-fitted by an exponential decay curve. We calculated the half life of MUs in the abductor digiti minimi (ADM), abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and/or extensor digitorum brevis (EDB) muscles. The mean half life of the MUs of ADM muscle was greater than those of the APB or EDB muscles. The half-life of MUs was less in the ADM muscle of subjects with upper limb than in those with lower limb onset. Conclusions: The rate of loss of lower motor neurons in ALS is exponential, the motor units of the APB decay more quickly than those of the ADM muscle and the rate of loss of motor units is greater at the site of onset of disease. Significance: This shows that the Bayesian MUNE method is useful in following the course and exploring the clinical features of ALS. 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

What is the role of design-led innovation and design-led prototyping in developing novel business models?

Recently, ‘business model’ and ‘business model innovation’ have gained substantial attention in management literature and practice. However, many firms lack the capability to develop a novel business model to capture the value from new technologies. Existing literature on business model innovation highlights the central role of ‘customer value’. Further, it suggests that firms need to experiment with different business models and engage in ‘trail-and-error’ learning when participating in business model innovation. Trial-and error processes and prototyping with tangible artifacts are a fundamental characteristic of design. This conceptual paper explores the role of design-led innovation in facilitating firms to conceive and prototype novel and meaningful business models. It provides a brief review of the conceptual discussion on business model innovation and highlights the opportunities for linking it with the research stream of design-led innovation. We propose design-led business model innovation as a future research area and highlight the role of design-led prototyping and new types of artifacts and prototypes play within it. We present six propositions in order to outline future research avenues.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Pedigree-free animal models : the relatedness matrix reloaded

Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

Aging and its effect on inflammation in skeletal muscle at rest and following exercise-induced muscle injury

Aging and its effects on inflammation in skeletal muscle at rest and following exercise-induced muscle injury. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 298: R1485-R1495, 2010. First published April 14, 2010; doi:10.1152/ajpregu.00467.2009.-The world's elderly population is expanding rapidly, and we are now faced with the significant challenge of maintaining or improving physical activity, independence, and quality of life in the elderly. Counteracting the progressive loss of muscle mass that occurs in the elderly, known as sarcopenia, represents a major hurdle in achieving these goals. Indirect evidence for a role of inflammation in sarcopenia is that markers of systemic inflammation correlate with the loss of muscle mass and strength in the elderly. More direct evidence is that compared with skeletal muscle of young people, the number of macrophages is lower, the gene expression of several cytokines is higher, and stress signaling proteins are activated in skeletal muscle of elderly people at rest. Sarcopenia may also result from inadequate repair and chronic maladaptation following muscle injury in the elderly. Macrophage infiltration and the gene expression of certain cytokines are reduced in skeletal muscle of elderly people compared with young people following exercise-induced muscle injury. Further research is required to identify the cause(s) of inflammation in skeletal muscle of elderly people. Additional work is also needed to expand our understanding of the cells, proteins, and transcription factors that regulate inflammation in the skeletal muscle of elderly people at rest and after exercise. This knowledge is critical for devising strategies to restrict sarcopenia, and improve the health of today's elderly population.

Corneal changes following near work in myopic anisometropia

PURPOSE: To examine the symmetry of corneal changes following near work in the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes. METHODS: Thirty-four non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes (minimum 1 D spherical equivalent anisometropia) were recruited. Corneal topography was measured with the Medmont E300 Videokeratoscope before and after a controlled near task. Subjects were positioned to minimise head movements and read continuous text on a computer monitor for 10 minutes at an angle of 25 degrees downward gaze and an accommodation demand of 2.5 D. Measures of palpebral aperture morphology during primary and downward gaze were also obtained using digital photography and analysed with customised software. RESULTS: Significant changes in corneal topography were observed after ten minutes of reading. Localised superior regions of corneal topographical change (a hyperopic shift in corneal power) were typically exhibited in both eyes following the near task. The mean change in the corneal sphero-cylinder was +0.02/-0.11 x 113 and +0.02/-0.06 x 68 for the more and less myopic eyes respectively for a 6 mm corneal diameter. A significantly greater change in corneal astigmatism power vector J0 (a larger increase in against the rule astigmatism) was observed in the more myopic eyes (p < 0.01 for a 6 mm diameter). The more and less myopic eyes exhibited a high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of palpebral aperture morphology during both primary and downward gaze. Changes in corneal power vectors following reading were associated with eyelid position during downward gaze. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in corneal topography observed following a controlled reading task were highly symmetrical between the fellow eyes of myopic anisometropes due to the interocular symmetry of the palpebral aperture. However, the more myopic eye did exhibit a small but significantly greater magnitude of change in corneal astigmatism compared to the less myopic eye following reading. These findings may have implications for understanding the mechanism of development of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropia.

Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

Background: Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or “part task” (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models). This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods: Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST) course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer), and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor) with a model foot ulcer). The primary outcome measure of the course was participants’ pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient). Participants’ knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism) of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson’s r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used. Results: An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p < 0.05). The lack of an overall significant change in knowledge scores reflected the participant populations’ high baseline knowledge and pre-requisite completion of web-based modules. Satisfaction, relevance and fidelity of all course elements were rated highly. Conclusions: This pilot study suggests simulation training programs can improve participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. The approach has the potential to enhance clinical training in diabetes-related foot complications and chronic wounds in general.

The effect of exercise on sleep quality in heart failure

Purpose The primary objective of this study was to examine the effect of exercise on subjective sleep quality in heart failure patients. Methods This study used a randomised, controlled trial design with blinded end-point analysis. Participants were randomly assigned to a 12-week programme of education and self-management support (control) or to the same programme with the addition of a tailored physical activity programme designed and supervised by an exercise specialist (intervention). The intervention consisted of 1 hour of aerobic and resistance exercise twice a week. Participants included 108 patients referred to three hospital heart failure services in Queensland, Australia. Results Patients who participated in supervised exercise classes showed significant improvement in subjective sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep disturbance and global sleep quality scores after 12 weeks of supervised hospital based exercise. Secondary analysis showed that improvements in sleep quality were correlated with improvements in geriatric depression score (p=0.00) and exercise performance (p=0.03). General linear models were used to examine whether the changes in sleep quality following intervention occurred independently of changes in depression, exercise performance and weight. Separate models adjusting for each covariate were performed. Results suggest that exercise significantly improved sleep quality independent of changes in depression, exercise performance and weight. Conclusion This study supports the hypothesis that a 12 week program of aerobic and resistance exercise improves subjective sleep quality in patients with heart failure. This is the first randomised controlled trial to examine the role of exercise in the improvement of sleep quality for patients with this disease. While this study establishes exercise as a therapy for poor sleep quality, further research is needed to investigate exercise as a treatment for other parameters of sleep in this population. Study investigators plan to undertake a more in-depth examination within the next 12 months

Exercise for health : a randomized, controlled trial evaluating impact of a pragmatic, translational exercise intervention on quality of life, function and treatment-related side effects following breast cancer

Purpose Exercise for Health was a randomized, controlled trial designed to evaluate two modes of delivering (face-to-face [FtF] and over-the-telephone [Tel]) an 8-month translational exercise intervention, commencing 6-weeks post-breast cancer surgery (PS). Methods Outcomes included quality of life (QoL), function (fitness and upper-body) and treatment-related side effects (fatigue, lymphoedema, body mass index, menopausal symptoms, anxiety, depression and pain). Generalised estimating equation modelling determined time (baseline [5-weeks PS], mid-intervention [6-months PS], post-intervention [12-months PS]), group (FtF, Tel, Usual Care [UC]) and time-by-group effects. 194 women representative of the breast cancer population were randomised to the FtF (n=67), Tel (n=67) and UC (n=60) groups. Results: There were significant (p<0.05) interaction effects on QoL, fitness and fatigue, with differences being observed between the treatment groups and the UC group. Trends observed for the treatment groups were similar. The treatment groups reported improved QoL, fitness and fatigue over time and changes observed between baseline and post-intervention were clinically relevant. In contrast, the UC group experienced no change, or worsening QoL, fitness and fatigue, mid-intervention. Although improvements in the UC group occurred by 12-months post-surgery, the change did not meet the clinically relevant threshold. There were no differences in other treatment-related side-effects between groups. Conclusion This translational intervention trial, delivered either face-to-face or over-the-telephone, supports exercise as a form of adjuvant breast cancer therapy that can prevent declines in fitness and function during treatment and optimise recovery post-treatment.

Discretionary use of open briefings in the Australian continuous reporting environment

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) listing rule 3.1 requires listed companies to immediately disclose price sensitive information to the market via the ASX’s Company Announcements Platform (CAP) prior to release through other disclosure channels. Since 1999, to improve the communication process, the ASX has permitted third-party mediation in the disclosure process that leads to the release of an Open Briefing (OB) through CAP. An OB is an interview between senior executives of the firm and an Open Briefing analyst employed by Orient Capital Pty Ltd (broaching topics such as current profit and outlook). Motivated by an absence of research on factors that influence firms to use OBs as a discretionary disclosure channel, this study examines (1) Why do firms choose to release information to the market via OBs?, (2) What are the firm characteristics that explain the discretionary use of OBs as a disclosure channel?, and (3) What are the disclosure attributes that influence firms’ decisions to regularly use OBs as a disclosure channel? Based on agency and information economics theories, a theoretical framework is developed to address research questions. This theoretical framework comprises disclosure environments such as firm characteristics and external factors, disclosure attributes and disclosure consequences. In order to address the first research question, the study investigates (i) the purpose of using OBs, (2) whether firms use OBs to provide information relating to previous public announcements, and (3) whether firms use OBs to provide routine or non-routine disclosures. In relation to the second and third research questions, hypotheses are developed to test factors expected to explain the discretionary use of OBs and firms’ decisions to regularly use OBs, and to explore the factors influencing the nature of OB disclosure. Content analysis and logistic regression models are used to investigate the research questions and test the hypotheses. Data are drawn from a hand-collected population of 1863 OB announcements issued by 239 listed firms between 2000 and 2010. The results show that types of information disclosed via an OB announcement are principally on matters relating to corporate strategies and performance and outlook. Most OB announcements are linked with a previous related announcement, with the lag between announcements significantly longer for loss-making firms than profitmaking firms. The main results show that firms which tend to be larger, have an analyst following, and have higher growth opportunities, are more likely to release OBs. Further, older firms and firms that release OB announcements containing good news, historical information and less complex information tend to be regular OB users. Lastly, firms more likely to disclose strategic information via OBs tend to operate in industries facing greater uncertainty, do not have analysts following, and have higher growth opportunities are less likely to disclose good news, historical information and complex information via OBs. This study is expected to contribute to disclosure literature in terms of disclosure attributes and firm characteristics that influence behaviour in this unique (OB) disclosure channel. With regard to practical significance, regulators can gain an understanding of how OBs are disclosed which can assist them in monitoring the use of OBs and improving the effectiveness of communications with stakeholders. In addition, investors can have a better comprehension of information contained in OB announcements, which may in turn better facilitate their investment decisions.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.