The purpose and use of passenger ships in 2058 - Future scenarios generated by the Delphi method

The purpose of the thesis is to generate scenarios of future purposes and of use of ships, suitable for STX Finland Cruise Oy to design and build, over a 50 year time span by applying the Delphi method and an open innovation approach in a future workshop. The scenarios were mapped out with help of two Delphi survey rounds and one future workshop. The number of participants in both surveys and the workshop was some twenty experts in each, representing various fields. On the basis of the first survey round, four different subject areas were selected for analysis: purposes for the use of ships; energy efficiency of cruises and ships; cost efficiency of sea transportation and vacation; and the views and expectations of the customers in the future. As a result of the future workshop, four different themes were established, which were studied further during the second Delphi round. The themes are future service and operation concepts; versatile uses of the space in ships; communication of environmental benefits of ships, future energy solutions and social interaction between passengers onboard. In addition to generating the scenarios, further aim of the thesis is to implement the Delphi method and workshop activity as foresight tools for STX Europe and to produce a chart of a future shipbuilding foresight community to can serve the open innovation processes in the maritime cluster as a whole.

Biopolttoaineiden lisäämismahdollisuudet kaukolämmön tuotannossa pienen kokoluokan tuotantolaitoksissa Lahden seudulla

Tämä diplomityö on tehty IMMU-hankkeeseen, jossa selvitetään konkreettisia keinoja ilmastonmuutoksen hillintään Lahden seudulla. Diplomityössä tarkastellaan mahdollisuuksia lisätä biopolttoaineita pienen kokoluokan kaukolämmön tuotantolaitoksissa. Teoria osuuden pohjalta luodaan skenaariot Nastolaan ja Vääksyyn (Asikkala). Skenaarioissa tarkastellaan biopolttoaineiden lisäämisen vaikutuksia kasvihuonekaasu- ja hiukkaspäästöihin käyttämällä elinkaariarviointimenetelmää. Taloudellisia seikkoja tarkastellaan laskemalla takaisinmaksuaikoja eri biolaitosratkaisuille nettonykyarvomenetelmällä. Tutkimuksen tuloksena saatiin, että kasvihuonekaasupäästöt tuotannon elinkaaren ajalta vähenevät eniten tuottamalla kaukolämmön perustuotanto Nastolassa ja Vääksyssä bio-CHP-laitoksella haketta polttamalla. Kiinteitä biopolttoaineita poltettaessa tulevat kuitenkin suurimmat hiukkaspäästöt, mikä vaikuttaa asuinympäristön viihtyvyyteen tuotantolaitoksen läheisyydessä. Bio-CHP-laitoksen investointikustannukset ovat suurimmat ja takaisinmaksuaika pisin. Nastolan kulutusperusteisiä päästöjä pystytään vähentämään eniten investoimalla biolämpölaitokseen tai bio-CHP-laitokseen. Päästöjä Nastolassa pystyttäisiin kyseisillä investoinneilla vähentämään enimmillään 6,4 %. Lahti energian kokonaispäästöjä pystyttäisiin enimmillään vähentämään noin 1,6 %. Johtopäätöksenä tutkimuksesta voidaan sanoa, että kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä pystytään vähentämään investointien avulla. Toiset ratkaisut ovat vain kalliimpia kuin toiset. Lisäksi kiinteitä biopolttoaineita käytettäessä jotkut poltto-ominaisuudet voivat heiketä esim. verrattuna maakaasun polttoon. Biopolttoaineiden lisäämisellä kuitenkin päästään irti riippuvuudesta fossiilisiin polttoaineisiin kuten öljyyn ja maakaasuun. Investointeja tehdessä on vaikea sanoa suoraan, mikä vaihtoehto on paras tapa tuottaa kaukolämpöä. Investointipäätöksiä tehdessä päätökseen vaikuttaa se, mitä tuotannon ominaispiirteitä painotetaan eniten.

Sähköä ja lämpöä tuottavien voimalaitosten kannattavuusanalyysin kehittäminen

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli laskea voimalaitoskannattavuudet vuosilta 2007–2009 kohdeyrityksen biovoimalaitokselle sekä kombivoimalaitokselle. Lisäksi laskettiin kohdeyrityksen uuden hyötyvoimalaitoksen käyttöönottovuoden 2009 kannattavuus sekä odotetun käyttöasteen kannattavuus. Tavoitteena oli muodostaa tuotantolaitoskohtaiset tuotekannattavuudet vuodelta 2009 Kotkan Energia Oy:ssä sekä muodostaa kirjatut jakoperusteet kannattavuuksien laskentaa varten ja analysoida saatuja kannattavuuksia. Tutkimusmetodologiana on käytetty soveltavaa tutkimusotetta. Kannattavuusanalyysin kehittäminen vaatii yrityksen kustannusten, tuottojen ja toiminnan sekä toimialan luonteen ymmärtämistä. Haasteena tutkimuksessa oli sähkön, lämmön ja höyryn valmistuksen periaatteiden omaksuminen, joka on kustannusten ja tuottojen oikean kohdistamisen perusta. Tutkimuksen tuloksena todettiin, että kombivoimalaitos on tuotantolaitoksista kannattamattomin. Kohdeyrityksen kannattavuutta voitaisiin parantaa investoimalla kombivoimalaitoksen tilalle halvempaa polttoainetta käyttävä tuotantolaitos. Tuotteista kannattavimmaksi todettiin kaukolämpö. Tutkimuksen tuloksina saatuja kannattavuuksia voidaan hyödyntää Kotkan Energian päätöksenteossa ja niitä hyödyntämällä pystytään kohdeyritykselle laskemaan nopeasti tarpeellisia tulevaisuudenskenaarioita. Kannattavuuslaskelmien tuloksien analyysin jatkoksi pohdittiin Kotkan Energialle jatkotutkimusehdotelmia.

Medical students' knowledge about end-of-life decision-making

The influence of medical students' knowledge concerning end-of-life care, considering ethical theories and clinical practice, remains controversial. We aimed to investigate medical students' knowledge of bioethical concepts related to moral kinds of death (euthanasia, disthanasia, and orthothanasia) and to analyze the influence of their clinical experience on practicing such approaches in a tertiary hospital in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. We interviewed 180 medical students [distributed in Group 1 (G1) - first to third- year students, and Group 2 (G2) - fourth to sixth-year students] to evaluate the influence of the course on "medical ethics" on ethical theories and clinical practice, using a closed questionnaire. The course on "medical ethics" did not distinguish the groups (P=0.704) in relation to bioethical concepts. Neologisms such as "cacothanasia" and "idiothanasia" were incorrectly viewed as bioethical concepts by 28% of the interviewees. Moreover, 45.3% of the sample considered health care professionals incapable of managing terminally ill patients, especially G2 (29%) as compared to G1 (16.5%, P=0.031). The concept of euthanasia was accepted by 41% of sample, as compared to 98.2% for orthothanasia. Among medical students that accepted ways to abbreviate life (22.9%), 30.1% belonged to G1, and only 16.1% to G2 (P=0.049). These medical students were unfamiliar with common bioethical concepts. Moreover, they considered healthcare professionals incapable of managing terminally ill patients. The ethical ideal of the "good death" reflects better acceptance of orthothanasia by medical students, suggesting a tendency to apply it in their future clinical practice.

Russian market entry decision for an e-business company, the case Ampparit Inc.

The aim of the study was to examine foreign operation methods and suggest the entry mode for the Russian E-business market. Ampparit Inc. was chosen as a case company, as it operates in the e-commerce B2B type of the business by providing Witpik - media monitoring service. The concept of foreign operation method was clarified with a specific focus on Russian market peculiarities and E-business. The main focuses of the present work were to figure out the most applicable entry mode for the Russian market in case of e-business company and factors affecting the decision about entry, including risks, barriers and other aspects.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

A decision support system for cost determination in grain storage facility operations

Many research works have being carried out on analyzing grain storage facility costs; however a few of them had taken into account the analysis of factors associated to all pre-processing and storage steps. The objective of this work was to develop a decision support system for determining the grain storage facility costs and utilization fees in grain storage facilities. The data of a CONAB storage facility located in Ponta Grossa - PR, Brazil, was used as input of the system developed to analyze its specific characteristics, such as amount of product received and stored throughout the year, hourly capacity of drying, cleaning, and receiving, and dispatch. By applying the decision support system, it was observed that the reception and expedition costs were exponentially reduced as the turnover rate of the storage increased. The cleaning and drying costs increased linearly with grain initial moisture. The storage cost increased exponentially as the occupancy rate of the storage facility decreased.

Relative reduction in annual soil loss in micro watersheds due to the relief and forest cover

With the intense debate, in Brazil, between landowners and public agencies about the amount of area with forest cover needed in different regions, there is an increase of the need for provision of technical data used as a basis for decision making. One of the criteria to evaluate the effect of forest cover in protecting water resources is the soil loss, which leads to several consequences on the environment, including the silting of the rivers. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the reduction in the soil loss in micro watersheds with different reliefs, size and location of forest cover, in the Corumbataí River watershed, in the state of São Paulo, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) in a GIS environment. For this study, 18 watersheds in three degrees of slope were selected, and 20 scenarios for land-use were established, by analyzing the influence of the PPA size, and the size and the location of the Legal Reserve. The results showed that: a) the effect of forest cover in reducing annual soil loss varies depending on the average slope of the watershed; b) the PPA width must be determined taking into account the slope of the watershed; c) the Legal Reserve must be located along the PPA. These provide better results in reducing annual soil loss.

Impact of elevated temperature scenarios on potato leaf development

The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of elevated temperature scenarios on leaf development of potato in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Leaf appearance was estimated using a multiplicative model that has a non-linear temperature response function which calculates the daily leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day-1) and the accumulated number of leaves (LN) from crop emergence to the appearance of the upper last leaf. Leaf appearance was estimated during 100 years in the following scenarios: current climate, +1 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C, +4 °C e +5 °C. The LAR model was estimated with coefficients of the Asterix cultivar in five emergence dates and in two growing seasons (Fall and Spring). Variable of interest was the duration (days) of the crop emergence to the appearance of the final leaf number (EM-FLN) phase. Statistical analysis was performed assuming a three-factorial experiment, with main effects being climate scenarios, growing seasons, and emergence dates in a completely randomized design using years (one hundred) as replications. The results showed that warmer scenarios lead to an increase, in the fall, and a decrease, in the spring growing season, in the duration of the leaf appearance phase, indicating high vulnerability and complexity of the response of potato crop grown in a Subtropical environment to climate change.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Energy demand in citrus production under varied operational efficiency values

Citrus orchards are very important in Brazil, especially in São Paulo State, where occupy an area of 600,000 ha approximately. To identify sustainability degree of citrus production system, an energy analysis allows evaluating efficiency of direct and indirect applied inputs. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate citrus production system under energetic point of view, in which invested energy is paid back with citrus production; being compared within three scenarios for operational field efficiency. As result, by sensitivity analysis was determined that fuel was the main energy demander, followed by pesticides and fertilizers. In operational work capacity analysis, all combinations between efficiency (minimum, typical and maximum) and yield levels became positive in the seventh year, except for the combination minimum efficiency and 10 % less yield, positive in the eighth year. The best combination (maximum efficiency and 10 % more yield) has promoted investment payoff around the sixth and seventh year. By this study, it is possible to determine the total energy demand to produce citrus and indentify the applied inputs that need more attention by the decision-makers. Labor and seedlings can be ommited for further studies with citrus, since they were irrelevant. Management of agricultural machinery may pose an important role on decreasing environmental impact of citrus production.