969 resultados para bayesian methods


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Influenza surveillance networks must detect early the viruses that will cause the forthcoming annual epidemics and isolate the strains for further characterization. We obtained the highest sensitivity (95.4%) with a diagnostic tool that combined a shell-vial assay and reverse transcription-PCR on cell culture supernatants at 48 h, and indeed, recovered the strain

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Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data.Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositionaldata have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categoricaldata.This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986)in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the problem of whatparameterization to use

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Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) represent a challenging control problem with complex, noisy, dynamics. Nowadays, not only the continuous scientific advances in underwater robotics but the increasing number of subsea missions and its complexity ask for an automatization of submarine processes. This paper proposes a high-level control system for solving the action selection problem of an autonomous robot. The system is characterized by the use of reinforcement learning direct policy search methods (RLDPS) for learning the internal state/action mapping of some behaviors. We demonstrate its feasibility with simulated experiments using the model of our underwater robot URIS in a target following task

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Interpretability and power of genome-wide association studies can be increased by imputing unobserved genotypes, using a reference panel of individuals genotyped at higher marker density. For many markers, genotypes cannot be imputed with complete certainty, and the uncertainty needs to be taken into account when testing for association with a given phenotype. In this paper, we compare currently available methods for testing association between uncertain genotypes and quantitative traits. We show that some previously described methods offer poor control of the false-positive rate (FPR), and that satisfactory performance of these methods is obtained only by using ad hoc filtering rules or by using a harsh transformation of the trait under study. We propose new methods that are based on exact maximum likelihood estimation and use a mixture model to accommodate nonnormal trait distributions when necessary. The new methods adequately control the FPR and also have equal or better power compared to all previously described methods. We provide a fast software implementation of all the methods studied here; our new method requires computation time of less than one computer-day for a typical genome-wide scan, with 2.5 M single nucleotide polymorphisms and 5000 individuals.

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In the accounting literature, interaction or moderating effects are usually assessed by means of OLS regression and summated rating scales are constructed to reduce measurement error bias. Structural equation models and two-stage least squares regression could be used to completely eliminate this bias, but large samples are needed. Partial Least Squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. In this article, disattenuated regression is discussed as a small sample alternative and is illustrated on data of Bisbe and Otley (in press) that examine the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on performance. Sizeable differences emerge between OLS and disattenuated regression

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BACKGROUND Spain shows the highest bladder cancer incidence rates in men among European countries. The most important risk factors are tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to a range of different chemical substances, such as aromatic amines. METHODS This paper describes the municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality and attempts to "adjust" this spatial pattern for the prevalence of smokers, using the autoregressive spatial model proposed by Besag, York and Molliè, with relative risk of lung cancer mortality as a surrogate. RESULTS It has been possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk for bladder cancer adjusted for lung cancer mortality, on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 towns. Maps were plotted depicting smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the distribution of the posterior probability of RR>1 by sex. Towns that registered the highest relative risks for both sexes were mostly located in the Provinces of Cadiz, Seville, Huelva, Barcelona and Almería. The highest-risk area in Barcelona Province corresponded to very specific municipal areas in the Bages district, e.g., Suría, Sallent, Balsareny, Manresa and Cardona. CONCLUSION Mining/industrial pollution and the risk entailed in certain occupational exposures could in part be dictating the pattern of municipal bladder cancer mortality in Spain. Population exposure to arsenic is a matter that calls for attention. It would be of great interest if the relationship between the chemical quality of drinking water and the frequency of bladder cancer could be studied.

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A total of 138 isolates, 118 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates (staphylococcal cassette chromosome type II, 20 isolates, type III, 39 isolates and type IV, 59 isolates) and 20 methicillin-sensitive S. aureus isolates were evaluated by phenotypic methods: cefoxitin and oxacillin disk diffusion (DD), agar dilution (AD), latex agglutination (LA), oxacillin agar screening (OAS) and chromogenic agar detection. All methods showed 100% specificity, but only the DD tests presented 100% sensitivity. The sensitivity of the other tests ranged from 82.2% (OAS)-98.3% (AD). The LA test showed the second lowest sensitivity (86.4%). The DD test showed high accuracy in the detection of MRSA isolates, but there was low precision in the detection of type IV isolates by the other tests, indicating that the genotypic characteristics of the isolates should be considered.

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Objectives: The study objective was to derive reference pharmacokinetic curves of antiretroviral drugs (ART) based on available population pharmacokinetic (Pop-PK) studies that can be used to optimize therapeutic drug monitoring guided dosage adjustment.¦Methods: A systematic search of Pop-PK studies of 8 ART in adults was performed in PubMed. To simulate reference PK curves, a summary of the PK parameters was obtained for each drug based on meta-analysis approach. Most models used one-compartment model, thus chosen as reference model. Models using bi-exponential disposition were simplified to one-compartment, since the first distribution phase was rapid and not determinant for the description of the terminal elimination phase, mostly relevant for this project. Different absorption were standardized for first-order absorption processes.¦Apparent clearance (CL), apparent volume of distribution of the terminal phase (Vz) and absorption rate constant (ka) and inter-individual variability were pooled into summary mean value, weighted by number of plasma levels; intra-individual variability was weighted by number of individuals in each study.¦Simulations based on summary PK parameters served to construct concentration PK percentiles (NONMEM®).¦Concordance between individual and summary parameters was assessed graphically using Forest-plots. To test robustness, difference in simulated curves based on published and summary parameters was calculated using efavirenz as probe drug.¦Results: CL was readily accessible from all studies. For studies with one-compartment, Vz was central volume of distribution; for two-compartment, Vz was CL/λz. ka was directly used or derived based on the mean absorption time (MAT) for more complicated absorption models, assuming MAT=1/ka.¦The value of CL for each drug was in excellent agreement throughout all Pop-PK models, suggesting that minimal concentration derived from summary models was adequately characterized. The comparison of the concentration vs. time profile for efavirenz between published and summary PK parameters revealed not more than 20% difference. Although our approach appears adequate for estimation of elimination phase, the simplification of absorption phase might lead to small bias shortly after drug intake.¦Conclusions: Simulated reference percentile curves based on such an approach represent a useful tool for interpretating drug concentrations. This Pop-PK meta-analysis approach should be further validated and could be extended to elaborate more sophisticated computerized tool for the Bayesian TDM of ART.

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The generation of an antigen-specific T-lymphocyte response is a complex multi-step process. Upon T-cell receptor-mediated recognition of antigen presented by activated dendritic cells, naive T-lymphocytes enter a program of proliferation and differentiation, during the course of which they acquire effector functions and may ultimately become memory T-cells. A major goal of modern immunology is to precisely identify and characterize effector and memory T-cell subpopulations that may be most efficient in disease protection. Sensitive methods are required to address these questions in exceedingly low numbers of antigen-specific lymphocytes recovered from clinical samples, and not manipulated in vitro. We have developed new techniques to dissect immune responses against viral or tumor antigens. These allow the isolation of various subsets of antigen-specific T-cells (with major histocompatibility complex [MHC]-peptide multimers and five-color FACS sorting) and the monitoring of gene expression in individual cells (by five-cell reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]). We can also follow their proliferative life history by flow-fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis of average telomere length. Recently, using these tools, we have identified subpopulations of CD8+ T-lymphocytes with distinct proliferative history and partial effector-like properties. Our data suggest that these subsets descend from recently activated T-cells and are committed to become differentiated effector T-lymphocytes.

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Leishmania infantum (syn. Leishmania chagasi) is the etiological agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil. The epidemiology of VL is poorly understood. Therefore, a more detailed molecular characterization at an intraspecific level is certainly needed. Herein, three independent molecular methods, multilocus microsatellite typing (MLMT), random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and simple sequence repeats-polymerase chain reaction (SSR-PCR), were used to evaluate the genetic diversity of 53 L. infantum isolates from five different endemic areas in Brazil. Population structures were inferred by distance-based and Bayesian-based approaches. Eighteen very similar genotypes were detected by MLMT, most of them differed in only one locus and no correlation was found between MLMT profiles, geographical origin or the estimated population structure. However, complex profiles composed of 182 bands obtained by both RAPD and SSR-PCR assays gave different results. Unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean trees built from these data revealed a high degree of homogeneity within isolates of L. infantum. Interestingly, despite this genetic homogeneity, most of the isolates clustered according to their geographical origin.

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This study compares the diagnostic accuracy of the TF-Test® (TFT) for human parasitosis with results obtained using the traditional Kato-Katz (KK), Hoffman-Pons-Janer (HPJ), Willis and Baermann-Moraes (BM) techniques. Overall, four stool samples were taken from each individual; three alternate-day TFT stool samples and another sample that was collected in a universal container. Stool samples were taken from 331 inhabitants of the community of Quilombola Santa Cruz. The gold standard (GS) for protozoa detection was defined as the combined results for TFT, HPJ and Willis coproscopic techniques; for helminth detection, GS was defined as the combined results for all five coproscopic techniques (TFT, KK, HPJ, Willis and BM). The positivity rate of each method was compared using the McNemar test. While the TFT exhibited similar positivity rates to the GS for Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (82.4%) and Giardia duodenalis (90%), HPJ and Willis techniques exhibited significantly lower positivity rates for these protozoa. All tests exhibited significantly lower positivity rates compared with GS for the diagnosis of helminths. The KK technique had the highest positivity rate for diagnosing Schistosoma mansoni (74.6%), while the TFT had the highest positivity rates for Ascaris lumbricoides (58.1%) and hookworm (75%); HPJ technique had the highest positivity rate for Strongyloides stercoralis (50%). Although a combination of tests is the most accurate method for the diagnosis of enteral parasites, the TFT reliably estimates the prevalence of protozoa and selected helminths, such as A. lumbricoides and hookworm. Further studies are needed to evaluate the detection accuracy of the TFT in samples with varying numbers of parasites.

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In this study we compared two polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods using either 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) or 23S rRNA gene primers for the detection of different Leptospira interrogans serovars. The performance of these two methods was assessed using DNA extracted from bovine tissues previously inoculated with several bacterial suspensions. PCR was performed on the same tissues before and after the formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedding procedure (FFPE tissues). The 23S rDNA PCR detected all fresh and FFPE positive tissues while the 16S rDNA-based protocol detected primarily the positive fresh tissues. Both methods are specific for pathogenic L. interrogans. The 23S-based PCR method successfully detected Leptospira in four dubious cases of human leptospirosis from archival tissue specimens and one leptospirosis-positive canine specimen. A sensitive method for leptospirosis identification in FFPE tissues would be a useful tool to screen histological specimen archives and gain a better assessment of human leptospirosis prevalence, especially in tropical countries, where large outbreaks can occur following the rainy season.

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The diagnosis of schistosomiasis is problematic in low-intensity transmission areas because parasitological methods lack sensitivity and molecular methods are neither widely available nor extensively validated. Helmintex is a method for isolating eggs from large faecal samples. We report preliminary results of a comparative evaluation of the Helmintex and Kato-Katz (KK) methods for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis in a low-intensity transmission area in Bandeirantes, Paraná, southern Brazil. Eggs were detected by both methods in seven patients, whereas only Helmintex yielded positive results in four individuals. The results confirm the previously demonstrated higher sensitivity of the Helmintex method compared with the KK method.

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Laboratory diagnosis of intestinal schistosomiasis mansoni can be accomplished through various methods of stool examination to detect parasites, ranging from the most classic tests (Kato-Katz) to several methods that are still undergoing validation. This study was conducted to assess two new parasite identification methods for diagnosing schistosomiasis mansoni in residents of a low endemic area in the municipality of Maranguape, in the state of Ceará, Brazil using the Kato-Katz method as a reference and serology (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) for the screening of patients. The Kato-Katz, the saline gradient method and the Helmintex® method parasite identification methods were employed only in subjects who exhibited positive serologic tests. The test results were then analysed and treatment of positive individuals was subsequently performed. After comparing the test results, we observed that the saline gradient method and the Helmintex® method were more effective in diagnosing schistosomiasis mansoni in the study area compared with the Kato-Katz method.

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The presence of enteric viruses in biosolids can be underestimated due to the inefficient methods (mainly molecular methods) used to recover the viruses from these matrices. Therefore, the goal of this study was to evaluate the different methods used to recover adenoviruses (AdV), rotavirus species A (RVA), norovirus genogroup II (NoV GII) and the hepatitis A virus (HAV) from biosolid samples at a large urban wastewater treatment plant in Brazil after they had been treated by mesophilic anaerobic digestion. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for spiking experiments to compare the detection limits of feasible methods, such as beef extract elution and ultracentrifugation. Tests were performed to detect the inhibition levels and the bacteriophage PP7 was used as an internal control. The results showed that the inhibitors affected the efficiency of the PCR reaction and that beef extract elution is a suitable method for detecting enteric viruses, mainly AdV from biosolid samples. All of the viral groups were detected in the biosolid samples: AdV (90%), RVA, NoV GII (45%) and HAV (18%), indicating the viruses' resistance to the anaerobic treatment process. This is the first study in Brazil to detect the presence of RVA, AdV, NoV GII and HAV in anaerobically digested sludge, highlighting the importance of adequate waste management.