Some conceptual difficulties regarding "net" multipliers

Multipliers are routinely used for impact evaluation of private projects and public policies at the national and subnational levels. Oosterhaven and Stelder (2002) correctly pointed out the misuse of standard 'gross' multipliers and proposed the concept of 'net' multiplier as a solution to this bad practice. We prove their proposal is not well founded. We do so by showing that supporting theorems are faulty in enunciation and demonstration. The proofs are flawed due to an analytical error but the theorems themselves cannot be salvaged as generic, non-curiosum counterexamples demonstrate. We also provide a general analytical framework for multipliers and, using it, we show that standard 'gross' multipliers are all that is needed within the interindustry model since they follow the causal logic of the economic model, are well defined and independent of exogenous shocks, and are interpretable as predictors for change.

Spatial analysis of the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and drinking water hardness.

Previously published scientific papers have reported a negative correlation between drinking water hardness and cardiovascular mortality. Some ecologic and case-control studies suggest the protective effect of calcium and magnesium concentration in drinking water. In this article we present an analysis of this protective relationship in 538 municipalities of Comunidad Valenciana (Spain) from 1991-1998. We used the Spanish version of the Rapid Inquiry Facility (RIF) developed under the European Environment and Health Information System (EUROHEIS) research project. The strategy of analysis used in our study conforms to the exploratory nature of the RIF that is used as a tool to obtain quick and flexible insight into epidemiologic surveillance problems. This article describes the use of the RIF to explore possible associations between disease indicators and environmental factors. We used exposure analysis to assess the effect of both protective factors--calcium and magnesium--on mortality from cerebrovascular (ICD-9 430-438) and ischemic heart (ICD-9 410-414) diseases. This study provides statistical evidence of the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular diseases and hardness of drinking water. This relationship is stronger in cerebrovascular disease than in ischemic heart disease, is more pronounced for women than for men, and is more apparent with magnesium than with calcium concentration levels. Nevertheless, the protective nature of these two factors is not clearly established. Our results suggest the possibility of protectiveness but cannot be claimed as conclusive. The weak effects of these covariates make it difficult to separate them from the influence of socioeconomic and environmental factors. We have also performed disease mapping of standardized mortality ratios to detect clusters of municipalities with high risk. Further standardization by levels of calcium and magnesium in drinking water shows changes in the maps when we remove the effect of these covariates.

El proyecto EMECAM: Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad. Antecedentes, participantes, objetivos y métodología.

In recent years, a growing number of studies suggests that increases in air pollution levels may have short-term impact on human health, even at pollution levels similar to or lower than those which have been considered to be safe to date. The different methodological approaches and the varying analysis techniques employed have made it difficult to make a direct comparison among all of the findings, preventing any clear conclusions from being drawn. This has led to multicenter projects such as the APHEA (Short-Term Impact of Air Pollution on Health. A European Approach) within a European Scope. The EMECAM Project falls within the context of the aforesaid multicenter studies and has a wide-ranging projection nationwide within Spain. Fourteen (14) cities throughout Spain were included in this Project (Barcelona, Metropolitan Area of Bilbao, Cartagena, Castellón, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Pamplona, Seville, Oviedo, Valencia, Vigo, Vitoria and Saragossa) representing different sociodemographic, climate and environmental situations, adding up to a total of nearly nine million inhabitants. The objective of the EMECAM project is that to asses the short-term impact of air pollution throughout all of the participating cities on the mortality for all causes, on the population and on individuals over age 70, for respiratory and cardiovascular design causes. For this purpose, with an ecological, the time series data analyzed taking the daily deaths, pollutants, temperature data and other factors taken from records kept by public institutions. The period of time throughout which this study was conducted, although not exactly the same for all of the cities involved, runs in all cases from 1990 to 1996. The degree of relationship measured by means of an autoregressive Poisson regression. In the future, the results of each city will be combined by means of a meta-analysis.

Are the health messages in schoolbooks based on scientific evidence? A descriptive study.

BACKGROUND Most textbooks contains messages relating to health. This profuse information requires analysis with regards to the quality of such information. The objective was to identify the scientific evidence on which the health messages in textbooks are based. METHODS The degree of evidence on which such messages are based was identified and the messages were subsequently classified into three categories: Messages with high, medium or low levels of evidence; Messages with an unknown level of evidence; and Messages with no known evidence. RESULTS 844 messages were studied. Of this total, 61% were classified as messages with an unknown level of evidence. Less than 15% fell into the category where the level of evidence was known and less than 6% were classified as possessing high levels of evidence. More than 70% of the messages relating to "Balanced Diets and Malnutrition", "Food Hygiene", "Tobacco", "Sexual behaviour and AIDS" and "Rest and ergonomics" are based on an unknown level of evidence. "Oral health" registered the highest percentage of messages based on a high level of evidence (37.5%), followed by "Pregnancy and newly born infants" (35%). Of the total, 24.6% are not based on any known evidence. Two of the messages appeared to contravene known evidence. CONCLUSION Many of the messages included in school textbooks are not based on scientific evidence. Standards must be established to facilitate the production of texts that include messages that are based on the best available evidence and which can improve children's health more effectively.

Niveles de anticuerpos bactericidas frente a meningococo C tras la vacunación de niños de 2 a 6 años de edad en Andalucía.

BACKGROUND In 1997, 18.5% of the cases of Meningococcal Disease caused b serogroup C in Andalusia were children between 2 and 4 years of age; ages where the initial immune response and the duration of the capsular A + C meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine is less than in older age groups. Research was designed in order to measure the immune response produced by this vaccine in children from 2 to 6 years of age and to compare it with the natural immunity present in unvaccinated children. METHODS I. Dual monitoring study: a) groups of children vaccinated previously and control groups, b) groups of children who were going to be vaccinated, for pre and post-vaccination (1, 6 and 12 months) analysis and a control group. II. The bactericidal activity was measured according to the standardised protocol of the CDC with regard to the strain of N. meningitidis C-11. The sera with bactericidal activity (TAB) > 1:8 were considered to be protective. RESULTS 1 and 2 months following vaccination, the proportion of TAB > 1:8 was significantly higher than that of the control group (65.6% and 73% in comparison to 2.2% and 12%). In the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine (after 6, 7, 12 and 13 months) verification, no significant difference between vaccinated individuals and controls was observed. CONCLUSIONS The differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals 1 and 2 months following vaccination indicate seroconversion in the vaccinated individuals. For the age group of between 2 to 6 years of age, the bactericidal activity acquired decline quickly, as, after 6 months, differences between this group and the control group are no longer observed.

Primary dengue haemorrhagic fever in patients from northeast of Brazil is associated with high levels of interferon-β during acute phase

Dengue is an acute febrile disease caused by the mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV) that according to clinical manifestations can be classified as asymptomatic, mild or severe dengue. Severe dengue cases have been associated with an unbalanced immune response characterised by an over secretion of inflammatory cytokines. In the present study we measured type I interferon (IFN-I) transcript and circulating levels in primary and secondary DENV infected patients. We observed that dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) patients express IFN-I differently. While DF and DHF patients express interferon-α similarly (52,71 ± 7,40 and 49,05 ± 7,70, respectively), IFN- β were associated with primary DHF patients. On the other hand, secondary DHF patients were not able to secrete large amounts of IFN- β which in turn may have influenced the high-level of viraemia. Our results suggest that, in patients from our cohort, infection by DENV serotype 3 elicits an innate response characterised by higher levels of IFN- β in the DHF patients with primary infection, which could contribute to control infection evidenced by the low-level of viraemia in these patients. The present findings may contribute to shed light in the role of innate immune response in dengue pathogenesis.

Factores asociados a insulinemia en población general adolescente.

Objectives: To identify factors that correlate with insulin values and to examine its independent associations among adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study was conducted among adolescents aged 12-16,9 years old. A multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method was employed. Anthropometric measurements and nutritional survey were performed, and fasting blood samples for insulin were obtained. Statistics: Multiple lineal regression. Results: 379 adolescents were included. Mean age was 14.08 ± 1.30 years. Factors associated with higher fasting insulin levels were puberty [ 4.55 (95% IC 0.42-8.69)], abdominal obesity [ 6.11 (95% IC 3.93-8.29)] and to be born small for gestational age (SGA) [ 7.45 (95% IC 2.47-12.44)]. It was observed a negative association between the regular intake of olive oil at home and insulin values [ -4.14 (95% IC -7.31- -0.98)]. Conclusions: Abdominal obesity and SGA were factors associated with higher fasting insulin values. In contrast, the regular intake of olive oil at home was an independent protective factor.

Detection of possible variant forms of hemoglobin in HbA1c measurements by chromatography liquid ion exchange high resolution (HPLC)

Background: The glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is used to help monitor the degree of a diabetic’s hyperglycemia. Security and accuracy of the methods used in its detection are affected by variants forms of Hb or elevations in levels of Fetal Hb (HbF). These interference are the result of a change in the haemoglobin total net charge of the variant due of a substitution of one amino acid in the remaining amino terminal of the beta chain. International Standardization for HbA1c values (NGSP) not include interference assessment as part of the certification program. Therefore, the effect of each variant or the lifting of the HbF on HbA1c result should be examined in each sample depending on the detected variant and the method used for the detection of the same. The objectives were: to describe the possible variants of Hb and their interference in HbA1c measurement by our method, after the implementation of a computer program for their detection. To identify some variants detected by chromatography liquid ion exchange high resolution (HPLC) with DNA molecular sequencing.

Estudio longitudinal del síndrome metabólico tras el trasplante renal.

BACKGROUND: The occurence of the metabolic syndrome (MS) between the renal receptors is one of the major complications after transplantation and is associated with an increased risk of graft failure and high rates of obesity and diabetes new appearance. AIMS: This study aims to investigate the prevalence and risk factors associated with the development of the MS and to evaluate the association between the same with the allograft dysfunction. METHODS: The samples consisted of 138 renal transplant patients, 83 men and 55 women, kidney transplant, which was attended by over five years for the transplant consultation. Were analyzed as potential risk factors for MS: age, sex, body mass index (BMI), weight, hypertension, diabetes, LDL, HDL, triglycerides in serum and immunosuppressive therapy (cyclosporine, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil), was also assessed the prevalence of acute rejection episodes and renal function. RESULTS: The prevalence of MS was 39.85 %. As statistically significant risk factors were obtained the BMI, overweight, HDL cholesterol levels, triglycerides and LDL as well as hypertension and diabetes. There were high rates of acute rejection and differences in story to the glomerular filtration rate. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high prevalence of the MS that severely compromised renal function and graft survival in renal transplant patients, it is very important the control and strict monitoring of all risk factors identified.

Estudio de la albúmina sérica y del índice de masa corporal como marcadores nutricionales en pacientes en hemodiálisis.

Background: Protein calorie malnutrition as well as systemic inflammation and metabolic disorders are common among patients with chronic renal failure undergoing renal replacement therapy (haemodialysis), which contributes to its morbidity and mortality. Aims: The aims of this work was to evaluate the nutritional status of patients in a hemodialysis treatment through the assessment of biochemical parameters nutritional as albumin, and anthropometric parameters of body mass index during ten years of follow up. Methods: In this work has been followed 90 patients of both sexes with chronic kidney disease who were treated with hemodialysis regularly on our unit for ten years. All patients were conducted quarterly measurements of plasma albumin (Alb), and other biochemical determinations, and anthropometric measurements of height, weight and body mass index calculated by the formula weight/height², grouped n BMI < 23 kg/m2 and albumin levels <3.8 g/dl according to the consensus of the panel of experts of the International Society for renal Nutrition and metabolism. Results: During the 10 years all patients showed a significant decline in the biochemical parameters and the albumin, change in BMI does not presented significant changes in relation to malnutrition. Conclusions: Malnutrition in patients on dialysis is a fact patent, BMI does not correspond with the biochemical parameters were observed, for what nutritional impairment in these patients is mainly expressed by serum albumin.

The expression level of BAALC-associated microRNA miR-3151 is an independent prognostic factor in younger patients with cytogenetic intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease whose prognosis is mainly related to the biological risk conferred by cytogenetics and molecular profiling. In elderly patients (60 years) with normal karyotype AML miR-3151 have been identified as a prognostic factor. However, miR-3151 prognostic value has not been examined in younger AML patients. In the present work, we have studied miR-3151 alone and in combination with BAALC, its host gene, in a cohort of 181 younger intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients. Patients with higher expression of miR-3151 had shorter overall survival (P=0.0025), shorter leukemia-free survival (P=0.026) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (P=0.082). Moreover, in the multivariate analysis miR-3151 emerged as independent prognostic marker in both the overall series and within the unfavorable molecular prognostic category. Interestingly, the combined determination of both miR-3151 and BAALC improved this prognostic stratification, with patients with low levels of both parameters showing a better outcome compared with those patients harboring increased levels of one or both markers (P=0.003). In addition, we studied the microRNA expression profile associated with miR-3151 identifying a six-microRNA signature. In conclusion, the analysis of miR-3151 and BAALC expression may well contribute to an improved prognostic stratification of younger patients with IR-AML.

Estudio de las subpoblaciones linfocitarias y secreción intratecal en pacientes con esclerosis múltiple defnida

Multiple sclerosis is an infammatory demyelinating autoimmune disease that affects the brain and spinal cord. The aim of the study was to quantify lym-phocyte subpopulations in cerebrospinal fuid and blood of patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis and in patients whit degenerative diseases not (control) in order to fnd some relationships between them that make it possible to differentiate the immune status of patients in each group. This work was jointly carried out with Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena in Seville during 2008, 2009 and 2010. It is a descriptive, transversal and cohort study. The selected population is composed of 142 subjects who were subjected to lumbar puncture and a blood sample. Group 1 (n=70), control, Group 2 (n=53), patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis, Group 3 (n=5), patients with primary type progressive multiple sclerosis, and Group 4 (n=14) patients with isolated neurological syndrome. The results show an increase in CSF B cells in MS patients suggesting an increase in focal infammatory activity in the CNS. Regarding NKCD8, reduced total levels of NK and NKCD8 regard-ing controls were observed, and it showed an increased IgG index value in patients with RRMS.

Describing ancient horizontal gene transfers at the nucleotide and gene levels by comparative pathogenicity island genometrics.

MOTIVATION: Lateral gene transfer is a major mechanism contributing to bacterial genome dynamics and pathovar emergence via pathogenicity island (PAI) spreading. However, since few of these genomic exchanges are experimentally reproducible, it is difficult to establish evolutionary scenarios for the successive PAI transmissions between bacterial genera. Methods initially developed at the gene and/or nucleotide level for genomics, i.e. comparisons of concatenated sequences, ortholog frequency, gene order or dinucleotide usage, were combined and applied here to homologous PAIs: we call this approach comparative PAI genometrics. RESULTS: YAPI, a Yersinia PAI, and related islands were compared with measure evolutionary relationships between related modules. Through use of our genometric approach designed for tracking codon usage adaptation and gene phylogeny, an ancient inter-genus PAI transfer was oriented for the first time by characterizing the genomic environment in which the ancestral island emerged and its subsequent transfers to other bacterial genera.