Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Absence of Fas-L aggravates renal injury in acute Trypanosoma cruzi infection

Trypanosoma cruzi infection induces diverse alterations in immunocompetent cells and organs, myocarditis and congestive heart failure. However, the physiological network of disturbances imposed by the infection has not been addressed thoroughly. Regarding myocarditis induced by the infection, we observed in our previous work that Fas-L-/- mice (gld/gld) have very mild inflammatory infiltration when compared to BALB/c mice. However, all mice from both lineages die in the early acute phase. Therefore, in this work we studied the physiological connection relating arterial pressure, renal function/damage and cardiac insufficiency as causes of death. Our results show that a broader set of dysfunctions that could be classified as a cardio/anaemic/renal syndrome is more likely responsible for cardiac failure and death in both lineages. However, gld/gld mice had very early glomerular deposition of IgM and a more intense renal inflammatory response with reduced renal filtration, which is probably responsible for the premature death in the absence of significant myocarditis in gld/gld.

Les miroirs de l'adolescence. Anthropologie du placement juvénile

Comment se prépare et s'expérimente la transition à l'âge adulte lors de placements juvéniles? Ce livre est une invitation à entrer dans la réalité institutionnelle d'adolescentes et d'adolescents proches de leur majorité, placés dans des structures d'hébergement socio-­éducatives, appelées aussi foyers. Basé sur un riche matériel de terrain, il dévoile toute la complexité du travail d'accompagnement en interrogeant la place centrale accordée à la notion d'autonomie dans les prises en charge éducatives. Il prend appui autant sur le point de vue des professionnel·le·s que sur celui des jeunes placé·e·s pour montrer comment les dimensions identitaires, civiles et citoyennes viennent s'adosser à la mission de ces institutions, en particulier lors des nombreuses séquences ritualisées qui rythment le vivre ensemble jour après jour. Il en résulte une analyse anthropologique originale du placement juvénile qui intéressera le monde professionnel directement aux prises avec les réalités de ces adolescentes et de ces adolescents souvent issus de groupes socio­-économiques défavorisés. Les réflexions proposées intéresseront également le monde des sciences sociales soucieux de comprendre la façon dont les institutions articulent des vécus singuliers aux attentes politiques et sociales qui pèsent sur une partie de la jeunesse.

Neonatal and adult ICU ventilators to provide ventilation in neonates, infants, and children: a bench model study.

BACKGROUND: Using a bench test model, we investigated the hypothesis that neonatal and/or adult ventilators equipped with neonatal/pediatric modes currently do not reliably administer pressure support (PS) in neonatal or pediatric patient groups in either the absence or presence of air leaks. METHODS: PS was evaluated in 4 neonatal and 6 adult ventilators using a bench model to evaluate triggering, pressurization, and cycling in both the absence and presence of leaks. Delivered tidal volumes were also assessed. Three patients were simulated: a preterm infant (resistance 100 cm H2O/L/s, compliance 2 mL/cm H2O, inspiratory time of the patient [TI] 400 ms, inspiratory effort 1 and 2 cm H2O), a full-term infant (resistance 50 cm H2O/L/s, compliance 5 mL/cm H2O, TI 500 ms, inspiratory effort 2 and 4 cm H2O), and a child (resistance 30 cm H2O/L/s, compliance 10 mL/cm H2O, TI 600 ms, inspiratory effort 5 and 10 cm H2O). Two PS levels were tested (10 and 15 cm H2O) with and without leaks and with and without the leak compensation algorithm activated. RESULTS: Without leaks, only 2 neonatal ventilators and one adult ventilator had trigger delays under a given predefined acceptable limit (1/8 TI). Pressurization showed high variability between ventilators. Most ventilators showed TI in excess high enough to seriously impair patient-ventilator synchronization (> 50% of the TI of the subject). In some ventilators, leaks led to autotriggering and impairment of ventilation performance, but the influence of leaks was generally lower in neonatal ventilators. When a noninvasive ventilation algorithm was available, this was partially corrected. In general, tidal volume was calculated too low by the ventilators in the presence of leaks; the noninvasive ventilation algorithm was able to correct this difference in only 2 adult ventilators. CONCLUSIONS: No ventilator performed equally well under all tested conditions for all explored parameters. However, neonatal ventilators tended to perform better in the presence of leaks. These findings emphasize the need to improve algorithms for assisted ventilation modes to better deal with situations of high airway resistance, low pulmonary compliance, and the presence of leaks.

Neuroanatomical and neuropsychological features of euthymic patients with bipolar disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies reported that the severity of cognitive deficits in euthymic patients with bipolar disorder (BD) increases with the duration of illness and postulated that progressive neuronal loss or shrinkage and white matter changes may be at the origin of this phenomenon. To explore this issue, the authors performed a case-control study including detailed neuropsychological and magnetic resonance imaging analyses in 17 euthymic elderly patients with BD and 17 healthy individuals. METHODS: Neuropsychological evaluation concerned working memory, episodic memory, processing speed, and executive functions. Volumetric estimates of the amygdala, hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex were obtained using both voxel-based and region of interest morphometric methods. Periventricular and deep white matter were assessed semiquantitatively. Differences in cognitive performances and structural data between BD and comparison groups were analyzed using paired t-test or analysis of variance. Wilcoxon test was used in the absence of normal distribution. RESULTS: Compared with healthy individuals, patients with BD obtained significantly lower performances in processing speed, working memory, and episodic memory but not in executive functions. Morphometric analyses did not show significant volumetric or white matter differences between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results revealed impairment in verbal memory, working memory, and processing speed in euthymic older adults with BD. These cognitive deficits are comparable both in terms of affected functions and size effects to those previously reported in younger cohorts with BD. Both this observation and the absence of structural brain abnormalities in our cohort do not support a progressively evolving neurotoxic effect in BD.

Kälteresistenz und reversible Hypothermie der Etrskerspitzmaus (Suncus etruscus, Soricidae, Insectivora)

On a testé la sensibilité présumée aux basses températures de Suncus etruscus, le plus petit mammifère connu. Nourri à profusion, cette espèce a supporté des températures inférieures à 0° C. L'activité de l'animal (=absence du nid) à une température ambiante de 0-10° C s'élève en moyenne de 303min/24 h contre 358 min24 h à des températures de 15°-20° C. Si on retire toute nourriture à la musaraigne étrusque, celle-ci entre en hypothermie réversible et léthargique, de laquelle elle sort de temps en temps à la recherche de nourriture. En léthargie, la température corporelle est d'environ 2° C au dessus de la température ambiante. Avec 1 1/2 à 2 g de nourriture par jour et à la température ambiante de 16° à 18° C, les phases de léthargie durent de 1 1/2 à 2 h avec un maximum de 7 1/2h. En 24 h, un animal insuffisamment nourri montrait une activité totale de 205 min seulement. Pendant 696 min l'animal a dormi en conservant sa température "normale", et pendant 539 min il était en léthargie. L'hypothermie réversible chez un représentant des Soricidae s'explique probablement par une insuffisance de son métabolisme par rapport à sa taille minuscule. Comme les espèces du genre Sorex de taille voisine n'ont pas la possibilité d'entrer en léthargie réversible, cette adaptation particulière peut être considérée comme un indice d'un métabolisme relativement bas chez les Crocidurinae

Accumulation des carbohydrates chez les sexués de plusieurs espèces de fourmis en relation avec l'existence ou l'absence d'un vol nuptial

The dispersal strategy of ants generally makes use of a nuptial flight to bring together the sexes. The energy necessary to accomplish this flight comes from stored carbohydrates. However, in some species, one of the sexes does not fly and mating occurs in the nest. This is the case in Iridomyrmex humilis and Cataglyphis cursor, in which the virgin queens possess wings but not leave the natal nest. We show in this work that the winged females of these two species accumulate very little carbohydrate during the maturation period occuring between emergence and mating: expressed as a percentage of dry weight at the time of mating, the total carbohydrates reach only 3.2% in I. humilis and 2.1% in C. cursor. In contrast, the males of these species which fly, possess three to four times more carbohydrates (13.0% and 6.2%, respectively). These latter values are very similar to those found for both sexes of species employing nuptial flights, such several species of wood ants (Formica rufa, F. polyctena, F. lugubris ), Lasius (L. niger , L. flavus ) or Myrmica scabrinodis also studied here. It appears that the absence of the mating flight is associated with reduced levels of carbohydrates, specially glycogen