Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Missing steps in a staircase: a qualitative study of the perspectives of key stakeholders on the use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Despite the promising benefits of adaptive designs (ADs), their routine use, especially in confirmatory trials, is lagging behind the prominence given to them in the statistical literature. Much of the previous research to understand barriers and potential facilitators to the use of ADs has been driven from a pharmaceutical drug development perspective, with little focus on trials in the public sector. In this paper, we explore key stakeholders’ experiences, perceptions and views on barriers and facilitators to the use of ADs in publicly funded confirmatory trials. Methods Semi-structured, in-depth interviews of key stakeholders in clinical trials research (CTU directors, funding board and panel members, statisticians, regulators, chief investigators, data monitoring committee members and health economists) were conducted through telephone or face-to-face sessions, predominantly in the UK. We purposively selected participants sequentially to optimise maximum variation in views and experiences. We employed the framework approach to analyse the qualitative data. Results We interviewed 27 participants. We found some of the perceived barriers to be: lack of knowledge and experience coupled with paucity of case studies, lack of applied training, degree of reluctance to use ADs, lack of bridge funding and time to support design work, lack of statistical expertise, some anxiety about the impact of early trial stopping on researchers’ employment contracts, lack of understanding of acceptable scope of ADs and when ADs are appropriate, and statistical and practical complexities. Reluctance to use ADs seemed to be influenced by: therapeutic area, unfamiliarity, concerns about their robustness in decision-making and acceptability of findings to change practice, perceived complexities and proposed type of AD, among others. Conclusions There are still considerable multifaceted, individual and organisational obstacles to be addressed to improve uptake, and successful implementation of ADs when appropriate. Nevertheless, inferred positive change in attitudes and receptiveness towards the appropriate use of ADs by public funders are supportive and are a stepping stone for the future utilisation of ADs by researchers.

Fast adaptive real-time classification for data streams with concept drift

An important application of Big Data Analytics is the real-time analysis of streaming data. Streaming data imposes unique challenges to data mining algorithms, such as concept drifts, the need to analyse the data on the fly due to unbounded data streams and scalable algorithms due to potentially high throughput of data. Real-time classification algorithms that are adaptive to concept drifts and fast exist, however, most approaches are not naturally parallel and are thus limited in their scalability. This paper presents work on the Micro-Cluster Nearest Neighbour (MC-NN) classifier. MC-NN is based on an adaptive statistical data summary based on Micro-Clusters. MC-NN is very fast and adaptive to concept drift whilst maintaining the parallel properties of the base KNN classifier. Also MC-NN is competitive compared with existing data stream classifiers in terms of accuracy and speed.

Responses of leaf traits to climatic gradients: adaptive variation versus compositional shifts

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically rely on plant functional types (PFTs), which are assigned distinct environmental tolerances and replace one another progressively along environmental gradients. Fixed values of traits are assigned to each PFT; modelled trait variation along gradients is thus driven by PFT replacement. But empirical studies have revealed "universal" scaling relationships (quantitative trait variations with climate that are similar within and between species, PFTs and communities); and continuous, adaptive trait variation has been proposed to replace PFTs as the basis for next-generation DGVMs. Here we analyse quantitative leaf-trait variation on long temperature and moisture gradients in China with a view to understanding the relative importance of PFT replacement vs. continuous adaptive variation within PFTs. Leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and nitrogen content of dry matter were measured on all species at 80 sites ranging from temperate to tropical climates and from dense forests to deserts. Chlorophyll fluorescence traits and carbon, phosphorus and potassium contents were measured at 47 sites. Generalized linear models were used to relate log-transformed trait values to growing-season temperature and moisture indices, with or without PFT identity as a predictor, and to test for differences in trait responses among PFTs. Continuous trait variation was found to be ubiquitous. Responses to moisture availability were generally similar within and between PFTs, but biophysical traits (LA, SLA and LDMC) of forbs and grasses responded differently from woody plants. SLA and LDMC responses to temperature were dominated by the prevalence of evergreen PFTs with thick, dense leaves at the warm end of the gradient. Nutrient (N, P and K) responses to climate gradients were generally similar within all PFTs. Area-based nutrients generally declined with moisture; Narea and Karea declined with temperature, but Parea increased with temperature. Although the adaptive nature of many of these trait-climate relationships is understood qualitatively, a key challenge for modelling is to predict them quantitatively. Models must take into account that community-level responses to climatic gradients can be influenced by shifts in PFT composition, such as the replacement of deciduous by evergreen trees, which may run either parallel or counter to trait variation within PFTs. The importance of PFT shifts varies among traits, being important for biophysical traits but less so for physiological and chemical traits. Finally, models should take account of the diversity of trait values that is found in all sites and PFTs, representing the "pool" of variation that is locally available for the natural adaptation of ecosystem function to environmental change.

Inter-plant communication through mycorrhizal networks mediates complex adaptive behaviour in plant communities

Adaptive behaviour of plants, including rapid changes in physiology, gene regulation and defence response, can be altered when linked to neighbouring plants by a mycorrhizal network (MN). Mechanisms underlying the behavioural changes include mycorrhizal fungal colonization by the MN or interplant communication via transfer of nutrients, defence signals or allelochemicals. We focus this review on our new findings in ectomycorrhizal ecosystems, and also review recent advances in arbuscular mycorrhizal systems. We have found that the behavioural changes in ectomycorrhizal plants depend on environmental cues, the identity of the plant neighbour and the characteristics of the MN. The hierarchical integration of this phenomenon with other biological networks at broader scales in forest ecosystems, and the consequences we have observed when it is interrupted, indicate that underground ‘tree talk’ is a foundational process in the complex adaptive nature of forest ecosystems.

Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

A study of adaptive thermal comfort in a well-controlled climate chamber

This paper aims to critically examine the application of Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) in an air-conditioned environment in the hot-humid climate region. Experimental studies have been conducted in a climate chamber in Chongqing, China, from 2008 to 2010. A total of 440 thermal responses from participants were obtained. Data analysis reveals that the PMV overestimates occupants' mean thermal sensation in the warm environment (PMV > 0) with a mean bias of 0.296 in accordance with the ASHRAE thermal sensation scales. The Bland–Altman method has been applied to assess the agreement of the PMV and Actual Mean Vote (AMV) and reveals a lack of agreement between them. It is identified that habituation due to the past thermal experience of a long-term living in a specific region could stimulate psychological adaptation. The psychological adaptation can neutralize occupants’ actual thermal sensation by moderating the thermal sensibility of the skin. A thermal sensation empirical model and a PMV-revised index are introduced for air-conditioned indoor environments in hot-humid regions. As a result of habituation, the upper limit effective thermal comfort temperature SET* can be increased by 1.6 °C in a warm season based on the existing international standard. As a result, a great potential for energy saving from the air-conditioning system in summer could be achieved.

Adaptive evolution toward larger size in mammals

The notion that large body size confers some intrinsic advantage to biological species has been debated for centuries. Using a phylogenetic statistical approach that allows the rate of body size evolution to vary across a phylogeny, we find a long-term directional bias toward increasing size in the mammals. This pattern holds separately in 10 of 11 orders for which sufficient data are available and arises from a tendency for accelerated rates of evolution to produce increases, but not decreases, in size. On a branch-by-branch basis, increases in body size have been more than twice as likely as decreases, yielding what amounts to millions and millions of years of rapid and repeated increases in size away from the small ancestral mammal. These results are the first evidence, to our knowledge, from extant species that are compatible with Cope’s rule: the pattern of body size increase through time observed in the mammalian fossil record. We show that this pattern is unlikely to be explained by several nonadaptive mechanisms for increasing size and most likely represents repeated responses to new selective circumstances. By demonstrating that it is possible to uncover ancient evolutionary trends from a combination of a phylogeny and appropriate statistical models, we illustrate how data from extant species can complement paleontological accounts of evolutionary history, opening up new avenues of investigation for both.

Adaptive climate change governance for urban resilience

Climate change poses new challenges to cities and new flexible forms of governance are required that are able to take into account the uncertainty and abruptness of changes. The purpose of this paper is to discuss adaptive climate change governance for urban resilience. This paper identifies and reviews three traditions of literature on the idea of transitions and transformations, and assesses to what extent the transitions encompass elements of adaptive governance. This paper uses the open source Urban Transitions Project database to assess how urban experiments take into account principles of adaptive governance. The results show that: the experiments give no explicit information of ecological knowledge; the leadership of cities is primarily from local authorities; and evidence of partnerships and anticipatory or planned adaptation is limited or absent. The analysis shows that neither technological, political nor ecological solutions alone are sufficient to further our understanding of the analytical aspects of transition thinking in urban climate governance. In conclusion, the paper argues that the future research agenda for urban climate governance needs to explore further the links between the three traditions in order to better identify contradictions, complementarities or compatibilities, and what this means in practice for creating and assessing urban experiments.

A fast adaptive tunable RBF network for nonstationary systems

This paper describes a novel on-line learning approach for radial basis function (RBF) neural network. Based on an RBF network with individually tunable nodes and a fixed small model size, the weight vector is adjusted using the multi-innovation recursive least square algorithm on-line. When the residual error of the RBF network becomes large despite of the weight adaptation, an insignificant node with little contribution to the overall system is replaced by a new node. Structural parameters of the new node are optimized by proposed fast algorithms in order to significantly improve the modeling performance. The proposed scheme describes a novel, flexible, and fast way for on-line system identification problems. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can significantly outperform existing ones for nonstationary systems in particular.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

A constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptive combination of multiple models

In this paper, we develop a novel constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptively combining a set of given multiple models. With data available in an online fashion, the linear combination coefficients of submodels are adapted via the proposed algorithm.We propose to minimize the mean square error with a forgetting factor, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters. Moreover an l1-norm constraint to the combination parameters is also applied with the aim to achieve sparsity of multiple models so that only a subset of models may be selected into the final model. Then a weighted l2-norm is applied as an approximation to the l1-norm term. As such at each time step, a closed solution of the model combination parameters is available. The contribution of this paper is to derive the proposed constrained recursive least squares algorithm that is computational efficient by exploiting matrix theory. The effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated using both simulated and real time series examples.

A FOSSIL BULGE GLOBULAR CLUSTER REVEALED BY VERY LARGE TELESCOPE MULTI-CONJUGATE ADAPTIVE OPTICS

The globular cluster HP 1 is projected on the bulge, very close to the Galactic center. The Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics Demonstrator on the Very Large Telescope allowed us to acquire high-resolution deep images that, combined with first epoch New Technology Telescope data, enabled us to derive accurate proper motions. The cluster and bulge fields` stellar contents were disentangled through this process and produced an unprecedented definition in color-magnitude diagrams of this cluster. The metallicity of [Fe/H] approximate to -1.0 from previous spectroscopic analysis is confirmed, which together with an extended blue horizontal branch imply an age older than the halo average. Orbit reconstruction results suggest that HP 1 is spatially confined within the bulge.

Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics VLT imaging of the distant old open cluster FSR 1415

We employ the recently installed near-infrared Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics demonstrator (MAD) to determine the basic properties of a newly identified, old and distant, Galactic open cluster (FSR 1415). The MAD facility remarkably approaches the diffraction limit, reaching a resolution of 0.07 arcsec (in K), that is also uniform in a field of similar to 1.8 arcmin in diameter. The MAD facility provides photometry that is 50 per cent complete at K similar to 19. This corresponds to about 2.5 mag below the cluster main-sequence turn-off. This high-quality data set allows us to derive an accurate heliocentric distance of 8.6 kpc, a metallicity close to solar and an age of similar to 2.5 Gyr. On the other hand, the deepness of the data allows us to reconstruct (completeness-corrected) mass functions (MFs) indicating a relatively massive cluster, with a flat core MF. The Very Large Telescope/MAD capabilities will therefore provide fundamental data for identifying/analysing other faint and distant open clusters in the Galaxy III and IV quadrants.