Adaptive uncertain information fusion to enhance plan selection in BDI agent systems

Correctly modelling and reasoning with uncertain information from heterogeneous sources in large-scale systems is critical when the reliability is unknown and we still want to derive adequate conclusions. To this end, context-dependent merging strategies have been proposed in the literature. In this paper we investigate how one such context-dependent merging strategy (originally defined for possibility theory), called largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCS), can be adapted to Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. We identify those measures for the degree of uncertainty and internal conflict that are available in DS theory and show how they can be used for guiding LPMCS merging. A simplified real-world power distribution scenario illustrates our framework. We also briefly discuss how our approach can be incorporated into a multi-agent programming language, thus leading to better plan selection and decision making.

Prepared to Plan: Raising awareness of the importance of planning among women with diabetes

No abstract available

Plan Selection for Probabilistic BDI Agents

When an agent wants to fulfill its desires about the world, the agent usually has multiple plans to choose from and these plans have different pre-conditions and additional effects in addition to achieving its goals. Therefore, for further reasoning and interaction with the world, a plan selection strategy (usually based on plan cost estimation) is mandatory for an autonomous agent. This demand becomes even more critical when uncertainty on the observation of the world is taken into account, since in this case, we consider not only the costs of different plans, but also their chances of success estimated according to the agent's beliefs. In addition, when multiple goals are considered together, different plans achieving the goals can be conflicting on their preconditions (contexts) or the required resources. Hence a plan selection strategy should be able to choose a subset of plans that fulfills the maximum number of goals while maintaining context consistency and resource-tolerance among the chosen plans. To address the above two issues, in this paper we first propose several principles that a plan selection strategy should satisfy, and then we present selection strategies that stem from the principles, depending on whether a plan cost is taken into account. In addition, we also show that our selection strategy can partially recover intention revision.

Can(Plan)+: Extending the Operational Semantics of the BDI Architecture to deal with Uncertain Information

The BDI architecture, where agents are modelled based on their beliefs, desires and intentions, provides a practical approach to develop large scale systems. However, it is not well suited to model complex Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems pervaded by uncertainty. In this paper we address this issue by extending the operational semantics of Can(Plan) into Can(Plan)+. We start by modelling the beliefs of an agent as a set of epistemic states where each state, possibly using a different representation, models part of the agent's beliefs. These epistemic states are stratified to make them commensurable and to reason about the uncertain beliefs of the agent. The syntax and semantics of a BDI agent are extended accordingly and we identify fragments with computationally efficient semantics. Finally, we examine how primitive actions are affected by uncertainty and we define an appropriate form of lookahead planning.

Human Adaptation in Asian Palaeolithic:Hominin Dispersal and Behaviour during the Late Quaternary

This book examines the first human colonization of Asia and particularly the tropical environments of Southeast Asia during the Upper Pleistocene. In studyexamining the unique character of the Asian archaeological record, it reassesses long-accepted propositions about the development of human ‘modernity.’ Ryan J. Rabett reveals an evolutionarily relationship between colonization, the challenges encountered during this process – especially in relation to climatic and environmental change – and the forms of behaviour that emerged. This book argues that human ‘modernity’ is not something achieved in the remote past in one part of the world, but rather is a diverse, flexible, responsive, and on-going process of adaptation, one that continues to this day.

Regional integration of biogas – developing an intersectoral research action plan for Northern Ireland

Bioenergy is a key component of the European Union long term energy strategy across all sectors, with a target contribution of up to 14% of the energy mix by 2020. It is estimated that there is the potential for 1TWh of primary energy from biogas per million persons in Europe, derived from agricultural by-products and waste. With an agricultural sector that accounts for 75% of land area and a large number of advanced engineering firms, Northern Ireland is a region with considerable potential for an integrated biogas industry. Northern Ireland is also heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. Despite this, the industry is underdeveloped and there is a need for a collaborative approach from research, business and policy-makers across all sectors to optimise Northern Ireland’s abundant natural resources. ‘Developing Opportunities in Bio-Energy’ (i.e. Do Bioenergy) is a recently completed project that involved both academic and specialist industrial partners. The aim was to develop a biogas research action plan for 2020 to define priorities for intersectoral regional development, co-operation and knowledge transfer in the field of production and use of biogas. Consultations were held with regional stakeholders and working groups were established to compile supporting data, decide key objectives and implementation activities. Within the context of this study it was found that biogas from feedstocks including grass, agricultural slurry, household and industrial waste have the potential to contribute from 2.5% to 11% of Northern Ireland’s total energy consumption. The economics of on-farm production were assessed, along with potential markets and alternative uses for biogas in sectors such as transport, heat and electricity. Arising from this baseline data, a Do Bioenergy was developed. The plan sets out a strategic research agenda, and details priorities and targets for 2020. The challenge for Northern Ireland is how best to utilise the biogas – as electricity, heat or vehicle fuel and in what proportions. The research areas identified were: development of small scale solutions for biogas production and use; solutions for improved nutrient management; knowledge supporting and developing the integration of biogas into the rural economy; and future crops and bio-based products. The human resources and costs for the implementation were estimated as 80 person-years and £25 million respectively. It is also clear that the development of a robust bio-gas sector requires some reform of the regulatory regime, including a planning policy framework and a need to address social acceptance issues. The Action Plan was developed from a regional perspective but the results may be applicable to other regions in Europe and elsewhere. This paper presents the methodology, results and analysis, and discussion and key findings of the Do Bioenergy report for Northern Ireland.

The Fasciola hepatica genome: gene duplication and polymorphism reveals adaptation to the host environment and the capacity for rapid evolution

BACKGROUND: The liver fluke Fasciola hepatica is a major pathogen of livestock worldwide, causing huge economic losses to agriculture, as well as 2.4 million human infections annually.

RESULTS: Here we provide a draft genome for F. hepatica, which we find to be among the largest known pathogen genomes at 1.3 Gb. This size cannot be explained by genome duplication or expansion of a single repeat element, and remains a paradox given the burden it may impose on egg production necessary to transmit infection. Despite the potential for inbreeding by facultative self-fertilisation, substantial levels of polymorphism were found, which highlights the evolutionary potential for rapid adaptation to changes in host availability, climate change or to drug or vaccine interventions. Non-synonymous polymorphisms were elevated in genes shared with parasitic taxa, which may be particularly relevant for the ability of the parasite to adapt to a broad range of definitive mammalian and intermediate molluscan hosts. Large-scale transcriptional changes, particularly within expanded protease and tubulin families, were found as the parasite migrated from the gut, across the peritoneum and through the liver to mature in the bile ducts. We identify novel members of anti-oxidant and detoxification pathways and defined their differential expression through infection, which may explain the stage-specific efficacy of different anthelmintic drugs.

CONCLUSIONS: The genome analysis described here provides new insights into the evolution of this important pathogen, its adaptation to the host environment and external selection pressures. This analysis also provides a platform for research into novel drugs and vaccines.

The signature of fine scale local adaptation in Atlantic salmon revealed from common garden experiments in nature

Understanding the extent, scale and genetic basis of local adaptation is important for conservation and management. Its relevance in salmonids at microgeographic scales, where dispersal (and hence potential gene flow) can be substantial, has however been questioned. Here we compare the fitness of communally-reared offspring of local and foreign Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from adjacent Irish rivers and reciprocal F1 hybrid crosses between them, in the wild ‘home’ environment of the local population. Experimental groups did not differ in wild smolt output but a catastrophic flood event may have limited our ability to detect freshwater performance differences, which were evident in a previous study. Foreign parr exhibited higher, and hybrids intermediate, emigration rates from the natal stream relative to local parr, consistent with genetically-based behavioural differences. Adult return rates were lower for the foreign compared to the local group. Overall lifetime success of foreigners and hybrids relative to locals was estimated at 31% and 40% (mean of both hybrid groups), respectively. The results imply a genetic basis to fitness differences among populations separated by only 50km, driven largely by variation in smolt to adult return rates. Hence even if supplementary stocking programs obtain broodstock from neighbouring rivers, the risk of extrinsic outbreeding depression may be high.

Responsiveness of dark-adaptation threshold to vitamin A and beta-carotene supplementation in pregnant and lactating women in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Impaired dark adaptation occurs commonly in vitamin A deficiency. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the responsiveness of dark-adaptation threshold to vitamin A and beta-carotene supplementation in Nepali women. DESIGN: The dark-adapted pupillary response was tested in 298 pregnant women aged 15-45 y in a placebo-controlled trial of vitamin A and beta-carotene; 131 of these women were also tested at 3 mo postpartum. Results were compared with those for 100 nonpregnant US women of similar age. The amount of light required for pupillary constriction was recorded after bleaching and dark adaptation. RESULTS: Pregnant women receiving vitamin A had better dark-adaptation thresholds (-1.24 log cd/m(2)) than did those receiving placebo (-1.11 log cd/m(2); P: = 0. 03) or beta-carotene (-1.13 log cd/m(2); P: = 0.05) (t tests with Bonferroni correction). Dark-adaptation threshold was associated with serum retinol concentration in pregnant women receiving placebo (P: = 0.001) and in those receiving beta-carotene (P: = 0.003) but not in those receiving vitamin A. Among women receiving placebo, mean dark-adaptation thresholds were better during the first trimester (-1.23 log cd/m(2)) than during the second and third trimesters (-1.03 log cd/m(2); P: = 0.02, t test). The mean threshold of nonpregnant US women (-1.35 log cd/m(2)) was better than that of all 3 Nepali groups (P: < 0.001, t test, for all 3 groups). CONCLUSIONS: During pregnancy, pupillary dark adaptation was strongly associated with serum retinol concentration and improved significantly in response to vitamin A supplementation. This noninvasive testing technique is a valid indicator of population vitamin A status in women of reproductive age.

Adaptation and Evaluation of the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale in India (NEWS-India)

Physical inactivity is the fourth leading risk factor for global mortality, with most of these deaths occurring in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) like India. Research from developed countries has consistently demonstrated associations between built environment features and physical activity levels of populations. The development of culturally sensitive and reliable measures of the built environment is a necessary first step for accurate analysis of environmental correlates of physical activity in LMICs. This study systematically adapted the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS) for India and evaluated aspects of test-retest reliability of the adapted version among Indian adults. Cultural adaptation of the NEWS was conducted by Indian and international experts. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with local residents and key informants in the city of Chennai, India. At baseline, participants (N = 370; female = 47.2%) from Chennai completed the adapted NEWS-India surveys on perceived residential density, land use mix-diversity, land use mix-access, street connectivity, infrastructure and safety for walking and cycling, aesthetics, traffic safety, and safety from crime. NEWS-India was administered for a second time to consenting participants (N = 62; female = 53.2%) with a gap of 2–3 weeks between successive administrations. Qualitative findings demonstrated that built environment barriers and constraints to active commuting and physical activity behaviors intersected with social ecological systems. The adapted NEWS subscales had moderate to high test-retest reliability (ICC range 0.48–0.99). The NEWS-India demonstrated acceptable measurement properties among Indian adults and may be a useful tool for evaluation of built environment attributes in India. Further adaptation and evaluation in rural and suburban settings in India is essential to create a version that could be used throughout India.