938 resultados para acceptance probability
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is study examined the social adaptation of children with mild intellectual disability who were either (a) partially integrated into regular primary school classes, or (b) full-time in separate classes, All of the children were integrated in sport and play activities with the whole school. Consistent with previous research, children with intellectual disability were less socially accepted than were a matched group of control children. Children in partially integrated classes received more play nominations than those in separate classes, brit there was no greater acceptance as a best friend. On teachers' reports, disabled children had higher levels of inappropriate social behaviours, but there was no significant difference in appropriate behaviours. Self-assessments by integrated children were more negative than those by children in separate classes, and their peer-relationship satisfaction was lower. Ratings by disabled children of their satisfaction with peer relationships were associated with ratings of appropriate social skills by themselves and their teachers, and with self-ratings of negative behaviour. The study confirmed that partial integration can have negative consequences for children with an intellectual disability.
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In this paper we suggest a model of sequential auctions with endogenous participation where each bidder conjectures about the number of participants at each round. Then, after learning his value, each bidder decides whether or not to participate in the auction. In the calculation of his expected value, each bidder uses his conjectures about the number of participants for each possible subgroup. In equilibrium, the conjectured probability is compatible with the probability of staying in the auction. In our model, players face participation costs, bidders may buy as many objects as they wish and they are allowed to drop out at any round. Bidders can drop out at any time, but they cannot come back to the auction. In particular we can determine the number of participants and expected prices in equilibrium. We show that for any bidding strategy, there exists such a probability of staying in the auction. For the case of stochastically independent objects, we show that in equilibrium every bidder who decides to continue submits a bid that is equal to his value at each round. When objects are stochastically identical, we are able to show that expected prices are decreasing.
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This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.
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Analysis of a major multi-site epidemiologic study of heart disease has required estimation of the pairwise correlation of several measurements across sub-populations. Because the measurements from each sub-population were subject to sampling variability, the Pearson product moment estimator of these correlations produces biased estimates. This paper proposes a model that takes into account within and between sub-population variation, provides algorithms for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of these correlations and discusses several approaches for obtaining interval estimates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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The identification of genes responsible for the rare cases of familial leukemia may afford insight into the mechanism underlying the more common sporadic occurrences. Here we test a single family with 11 relevant meioses transmitting autosomal dominant acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and myelodysplasia for linkage to three potential candidate loci. In a different family with inherited AML, linkage to chromosome 21q22.1-22.2 was recently reported; we exclude linkage to 21q22.1-22.2, demonstrating that familial AML is a heterogeneous disease. After reviewing familial leukemia and observing anticipation in the form of a declining age of onset with each generation, we had proposed 9p21-22 and 16q22 as additional candidate loci. Whereas linkage to 9p21-22 can be excluded, the finding of a maximum two-point LOD score of 2.82 with the microsatellite marker D16S522 at a recombination fraction theta = 0 provides evidence supporting linkage to 16q22. Haplotype analysis reveals a 23.5-cM (17.9-Mb) commonly inherited region among all affected family members extending from D16S451 to D1GS289, In order to extract maximum linkage information with missing individuals, incomplete informativeness with individual markers in this interval, and possible deviance from strict autosomal dominant inheritance, we performed nonparametric linkage analysis (NPL) and found a maximum NPL statistic corresponding to a P-value of .00098, close to the maximum conditional probability of linkage expected for a pedigree with this structure. Mutational analysis in this region specifically excludes expansion of the AT-rich minisatellite repeat FRA16B fragile site and the CAG trinucleotide repeat in the E2F-4 transcription factor. The ''repeat expansion detection'' method, capable of detecting dynamic mutation associated with anticipation, more generally excludes large CAG repeat expansion as a cause of leukemia in this family.
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The construct of coping is explored in this paper utilising repertory grid technique with a small group of non-patients with chronic pain. Nineteen volunteers with low back pain completed a repertory grid with eight given elements signifying various self and illness-related roles. Two constructs were given and the remainder elicited using the triad method. The 19 participants rated themselves as being in less pain than those they typified as ill or disabled and considered themselves to be coping with their pain. The constructs elicited emphasised authenticity, the limitations of being a coper, mastery, active stoicism, cheerfulness, acceptance and maintaining acceptable social interactions and appearances. Copers were considered to not be in constant pain. Self, ideal-self and social-self constructs were closely related, The participants rated themselves more like copers than ill, pain-suffering, invalid or hypochondriacal persons. Being a coper, however, was less desirable than being pain free, In essence, these volunteers with low back pain see coping as a necessary evil. This ambivalent and ambiguous construing of coping needs to be further explored in community and patient groups if we are to improve the collaboration between patients and therapists in achieving good pain management. (C) 1997 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
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Liver transplantation increased 1.84-fold from 1988 to 2004. However, the number of patients on the waiting list for a liver increased 2.71-fold, from 553 to 1500. We used a mathematical equation to analyze the potential effect of using ABO-compatible living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) on both our liver transplantation program and the waiting list. We calculated the prevalence distribution of blood groups (O, A, B, and AB) in the population and the probability of having a compatible parent or sibling for LDLT. The incidence of ABO compatibility in the overall population was as follows: A, 0.31; B, 0.133; O, 0.512; and AB, 0.04. The ABO compatibility for parent donors was blood group A, 0.174; B, 0.06; O, 0.152; and AB, 0.03; and for sibling donors was A, 0.121; B, 0.05; O, 0.354; and AB, 0.03. Use of LDLT can reduce the pressure on our liver transplantation waiting list by decreasing its size by at least 16.5% at 20 years after its introduction. Such a program could save an estimated 3600 lives over the same period.
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Background-Endocardial fibrous tissue (FT) deposition is a hallmark of endomyocardial fibrosis (EMF). Echocardiography is a first-line and the standard technique for the diagnosis of this disease. Although late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) allows FT characterization, its role in the diagnosis and prognosis of EMF has not been investigated. Methods and Results-Thirty-six patients (29 women; age, 54 +/- 12 years) with EMF diagnosis after clinical evaluation and comprehensive 2-dimensional Doppler echocardiography underwent cine-CMR for assessing ventricular volumes, ejection fraction and mass, and LGE-CMR for FT characterization and quantification. Indexed FT volume (FT/body surface area) was calculated after planimetry of the 8 to 12 slices obtained in the short-axis view at end-diastole (mL/m(2)). Surgical resection of FT was performed in 16 patients. In all patients, areas of LGE were confined to the endocardium, frequently as a continuous streak from the inflow tract extending to the apex, where it was usually most prominent. There was a relation between increased FT/body surface area and worse New York Heart Association functional class and with increased probability of surgery (P<0.05). The histopathologic examination of resected FT showed typical features of EMF with extensive endocardial fibrous thickening, proliferation of small vessels, and scarce inflammatory infiltrate. In multivariate analysis, the patients with FT/body surface area >19 mL/m(2) had an increased mortality rate, with a relative risk of 10.8. Conclusions-Our study provides evidence that LGE-CMR is useful in the diagnosis and prognosis of EMF through quantification of the typical pattern of FT deposition. (Circ Cardiovasc Imaging. 2011;4:304-311.)
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Purpose: To compare the ability of Subjective assessment of optic nerve head (ONH) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) by general ophthalmologists and by a glaucoma expert with objective measurements by optical coherence tomography (Stratus OCT, Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc), confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope (HRT III; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg. Germany), and scanning laser polarimetry (GDx enhanced corneal compensation; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc, Dublin, CA) in discriminating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Methods: Sixty-one glaucomatous and 57 normal eyes or 118 subjects Were included in the study. Three independent general ophthalmologists and I glaucoma expert evaluated ONH stereo-photographs. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each imaging technique and sensitivity at fixed specificity was estimated. Comparisons or areas under these curves (aROCs) and agreement (k) were determined between stereophoto grading and best parameter from each technique. Results: Best parameter from each technique showed larger aROC (Stratus OCT RNFL 0.92; Stratus OCT ONH vertical integrated area = 0.86; Stratus OCT macular thickness = 0.82; GDx enhanced corneal compensation = 0.91, HRT3 global cup-to-disc ratio = 0.83; HRT3 glaucoma probability score numeric area score 0.83) compared with stereophotograph grading by general ophthalmologists (0.80) in separating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Glaucoma expert stereophoto grading provided equal or larger aROC (0.92) than best parameter of each computerized imaging device. Stereophoto evaluated by a glaucoma expert showed better agreement with best parameter of each quantitative imaging technique in classifying eyes either as glaucomatous or normal compared with stereophoto grading by general ophthalmologists, The combination Of Subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists with RNFL objective parameters improved identification of glaucoma patients in a larger proportion than the combination of these objective parameters with Subjective assessment of the optic disc by a glaucoma expert (29.5% vs. 19.7%, respectively). Conclusions: Diagnostic ability of all imaging techniques showed better performance than subjective assessment of the ONH by general ophthalmologists, but not by It glaucoma expert, Objective RNFL measurements may provide improvement in glaucoma detection when combined with subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists or by a glaucoma expert.
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According to the Brazilian Federal Medical Association, transsexualism is recognized as a gender identity disorder if a long-term diagnostic therapeutic process has demonstrated that the transposition of gender roles is irreversible, and if only hormonal and surgical procedures are appropriate to relieve the stress associated with the gender identity. Although such treatment will only be initiated with caution and after a long phase of intense diagnostic screening, the differentiation between pure identity disorders and transsexual feelings secondary to an ongoing psychopathologic process, such as schizophrenia, can be arduous for many health professionals. To report a case of a female patient with schizophrenia and transsexualism and the risks of a potential diagnostic confusion. A 19-year-old black woman, with an 8-year history of undifferentiated schizophrenia and intense gender dysphoria, was referred for sex reassignment surgery evaluation in the Ambulatory for the Treatment of Sexual Disorders of the ABC Medical School. After a more adequate antipsychotic treatment, her masculine behavior has persisted, but her desire to change her own genital organs has decreased. A better acceptance of the multiplicity of possible genders should neither contribute to inadequate interpretations of the signs and symptoms of our patients nor facilitate dangerous clinical or surgical recommendations. Baltieri DA, and De Andrade AG. Schizophrenia Modifying the expression of gender identity disorder. J Sex Med **;**:**-**.
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PURPOSE. To evaluate the effect of disease severity and optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracies of optic nerve head (ONH), retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), and macular parameters with RTVue (Optovue, Fremont, CA) spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) in glaucoma. METHODS. 110 eyes of 62 normal subjects and 193 eyes of 136 glaucoma patients from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study underwent ONH, RNFL, and macular imaging with RTVue. Severity of glaucoma was based on visual field index (VFI) values from standard automated perimetry. Optic disc size was based on disc area measurement using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II (Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany). Influence of disease severity and disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of RTVue was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression models. RESULTS. Areas under ROC curve (AUC) of all scanning areas increased (P < 0.05) as disease severity increased. For a VFI value of 99%, indicating early damage, AUCs for rim area, average RNLI thickness, and ganglion cell complex-root mean square were 0.693, 0.799, and 0.779, respectively. For a VFI of 70%, indicating severe damage, corresponding AUCs were 0.828, 0.985, and 0.992, respectively. Optic disc size did not influence the AUCs of any of the SDOCT scanning protocols of RTVue (P > 0.05). Sensitivity of the rim area increased and specificity decreased in large optic discs. CONCLUSIONS. Diagnostic accuracies of RTVue scanning protocols for glaucoma were significantly influenced by disease severity. Sensitivity of the rim area increased in large optic discs at the expense of specificity. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;92:1290-1296) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-5516
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Background Airway bypass is a bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction procedure for emphysema whereby transbronchial passages into the lung are created to release trapped air, supported with paclitaxel-coated stents to ease the mechanics of breathing. The aim of the EASE (Exhale airway stents for emphysema) trial was to evaluate safety and efficacy of airway bypass in people with severe homogeneous emphysema. Methods We undertook a randomised, double-blind, sham-controlled study in 38 specialist respiratory centres worldwide. We recruited 315 patients who had severe hyperinflation (ratio of residual volume [RV] to total lung capacity of >= 0.65). By computer using a random number generator, we randomly allocated participants (in a 2:1 ratio) to either airway bypass (n=208) or sham control (107). We divided investigators into team A (masked), who completed pre-procedure and post-procedure assessments, and team B (unmasked), who only did bronchoscopies without further interaction with patients. Participants were followed up for 12 months. The 6-month co-primary efficacy endpoint required 12% or greater improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) and 1 point or greater decrease in the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score from baseline. The composite primary safety endpoint incorporated five severe adverse events. We did Bayesian analysis to show the posterior probability that airway bypass was superior to sham control (success threshold, 0.965). Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00391612. Findings All recruited patients were included in the analysis. At 6 months, no difference between treatment arms was noted with respect to the co-primary efficacy endpoint (30 of 208 for airway bypass vs 12 of 107 for sham control; posterior probability 0.749, below the Bayesian success threshold of 0.965). The 6-month composite primary safety endpoint was 14.4% (30 of 208) for airway bypass versus 11.2% (12 of 107) for sham control (judged non-inferior, with a posterior probability of 1.00 [Bayesian success threshold >0.95]). Interpretation Although our findings showed safety and transient improvements, no sustainable benefit was recorded with airway bypass in patients with severe homogeneous emphysema.
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Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. \Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Results: The mean age of participants was 71.7 +/- 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Conclusions: Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.
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Context. Although several studies have evaluated the frequency of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) and drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in general medicine, few studies have looked at the epidemiology of adverse drug events (ADEs) in oncology. Objectives. We sought to investigate how many hospital admissions in oncology are related to a DDI or an ADR. Methods. All cancer patients admitted to an oncology ward during an eight-month period had their charts retrospectively evaluated for reasons of hospitalization, using a 4-point scale (definitely, probably, possibly, or unlikely associated) to classify admissions by their probability of being associated with either a DDI or an ADR. Results. From September 2007 to May 2008, there were 550 hospital admissions and 458 were eligible. Among unplanned admissions (n = 298), 39 (13.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.4%-17.4%) were considered to be associated with an ADE, 33 (11.0%, 95% CI 7.7%-15.2%) with an ADR, and six (2.0%, 95% CI 0.7%-4.3%) with a DDI. The most common DDIs involved warfarin, captopril, and anti-inflammatory agents, and the most frequent ADR was neutropenic fever post-chemotherapy. Most patients were discharged completely recovered, but two patients died. Conclusion. Approximately one in 10 unplanned hospitalizations of cancer patients is associated with an ADE. Prospective and population-based studies are warranted to evaluate their magnitude in oncology. J Pain Symptom Manage 2011;42:342-353. (C) 2011 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Background. The loss of a child is considered the hardest moment in a parent`s life. Studies addressing length of survival under pediatric palliative care are rare. The aim of this study was to improve a survival prediction model for children in palliative care, as accurate information positively impacts parent and child preparation for palliative care. Procedure. Sixty-five children referred to a pediatric palliative care team were followed from August 2003 until December 2006. Variables investigated (also included in previous studies) were: diagnosis, home care provider, presence of anemia, and performance status score given by the home care provider. Clinical variables such as symptom number were also used to test the score`s ability to pre-validated using the above variables. The number of symptoms at transition to palliative care does not improve the score`s predictive ability. The sum of the single scores gives an overall score for each patient, dividing the population into three groups by probability of 60-day survival: Group A 80.0%, Group B 38.0%, and Group C 28.5% (P < 0.001). Conclusion. A pediatric palliative care score based on easily accessible variables is statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Factors that increase accuracy of life expectancy prediction enable adequate information to be given to patients and families, contributing to therapeutic decision-making issues. Pediatr Blood Cancer. 2010;55:1167-1171. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.