Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To quantify the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000. Design The absolute difference between observed lung cancer death rate and the level in non-smokers, adjusted for occupational and indoor exposure to lung carcinogens, was used to estimate the proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking and the smoking impact ratio (SIR). The SIR was substituted for smoking prevalence in the attributable fraction formula for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cancers to allow for the long lag between exposure and outcome. Assuming a shorter lag between exposure and disease, the current prevalence of smoking was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAF) for the other outcomes. Relative risks (RR) from the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS-II) were used to calculate PAF. Setting South Africa. Outcome measures Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung and other cancers, COPD, cardiovascular conditions, respiratory tuberculosis, and other respiratory and medical conditions. Results Smoking caused between 41 632 and 46 656 deaths in South Africa, accounting for 8.0 - 9.0% of deaths and 3.7 - 4.3% of DALYs in 2000. Smoking ranked third (after unsafe sex/sexually transmitted disease and high blood pressure) in terms of mortality among 17 risk factors evaluated. Three times as many males as females died from smoking. Lung cancer had the largest attributable fraction due to smoking. However, cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest proportion of deaths attributed to smoking. Conclusion Cigarette smoking accounts for a large burden of preventable disease in South Africa. While the government has taken bold legislative action to discourage tobacco use since 1994, it still remains a major public health priority.

Estimating second language productive vocabulary size: A Capture-Recapture approach

This study provides validity evidence for the Capture-Recapture (CR) method, borrowed from ecology, as a measure of second language (L2) productive vocabulary size (PVS). Two separate “captures” of productive vocabulary were taken using written word association tasks (WAT). At Time 1, 47 bilinguals provided at least 4 associates to each of 30 high-frequency stimulus words in English, their first language (L1), and in French, their L2. A few days later (Time 2), this procedure was repeated with a different set of stimulus words in each language. Since the WAT was used, both Lex30 and CR PVS scores were calculated in each language. Participants also completed an animacy judgment task assessing the speed and efficiency of lexical access. Results indicated that, in both languages, CR and Lex30 scores were significantly positively correlated (evidence of convergent validity). CR scores were also significantly larger in the L1, and correlated significantly with the speed of lexical access in the L2 (evidence of construct validity). These results point to the validity of the technique for estimating relative L2 PVS. However, CR scores are not a direct indication of absolute vocabulary size. A discussion of the method’s underlying assumptions and their implications for interpretation are provided.

A description of neck motor performance, neck pain, fatigue, and mental effort while driving in a sample with chronic whiplash-associated disorders

Objective: Individuals with chronic whiplash-associated disorders (WADs) often note driving as a difficult task. This study’s aims were to (1) compare, while driving, neck motor performance, mental effort, and fatigue in individuals with chronic WAD against healthy controls and (2) investigate the relationships of these variables and neck pain to self-reported driving difficulty in the WAD group. Design: This study involved 14 participants in each group (WAD and control). Measures included self-reported driving difficulty and measures of neck pain intensity, overall fatigue, mental effort, and neck motor performance (head rotation and upper trapezius activity) while driving a simulator. Results: The WAD group had greater absolute path of head rotation in a simulated city area and used greater mental effort (P = 0.04), but there were no differences in other measures while driving compared with the controls (all P Q 0.05). Self-reported driving difficulty correlated moderately with neck pain intensity, fatigue level, and maximum velocity of head rotation while driving in the WAD group (all P G 0.05). Conclusions: Individuals with chronic WAD do not seem to have impaired neck motor performance while driving yet use greater mental effort. Neck pain, fatigue, and maximum head rotation velocity could be potential contributors to self-reported driving difficulty in this group.

Denhaminols A–H, dihydro-β-agarofurans from the endemic Australian rainforest plant Denhamia celastroides

Eight new dihydro-β-agarofurans, denhaminols A–H (1–8), were isolated from the leaves of the Australian rainforest tree Denhamia celastroides. The chemical structures of 1–8 were elucidated following analysis of 1D/2D NMR and MS data. The absolute configuration of denhaminol A (1) was determined by single-crystal X-ray crystallography. All compounds were evaluated for cytotoxic activity against the human prostate cancer cell line LNCaP, using live-cell imaging and metabolic assays. Denhaminols A (1) and G (7) were also tested for their effects on the lipid content of LNCaP cells. This is the first report of secondary metabolites from D. celastroides.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Patterns of service use among persons with Schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders

Objective: This study assessed 12-month service use patterns among people with psychotic disorders and sought to identify determinants of service use. Methods: As part of a large two-phase Australian study of psychotic disorders, structured interviews were conducted with a stratified random sample of adults who screened positive for psychosis. Demographic characteristics, social functioning, symptoms, mental health diagnoses, and use of psychiatric and nonpsychiatric services were assessed. Data were analyzed for 858 persons who had an ICD-10 diagnosis of a psychotic disorder and who had been hospitalized for less than six months during the previous year. Results: People with psychotic disorders had high levels of use of health services, both in absolute terms and relative to people with nonpsychotic disorders. Those with psychotic disorders were estimated to have an average of one contact with health services per week. Use of psychiatric inpatient services was associated with parenthood, higher symptom levels, recent attempts at suicide or self-harm, personal disability, medication status, and frequency of alcohol consumption. Services provided by general practitioners (family physicians) were more likely to be obtained by older people, women, people with greater availability of friends, those with fewer negative symptoms, and those whose service needs were unmet by other sources. People who were high users of health services also reported having more contact with a range of non-health agencies. Conclusions: The predictors of service use accounted for small proportions of the variance in overall use of health services. The role of general practitioners in providing and monitoring treatment programs and other psychosocial interventions needs to be acknowledged and enhanced.

Weak acid extractable metals in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia : temporal behaviour, enrichment and source apportionment

Sediment samples were taken from six sampling sites in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia between February and November in 2012. They were analysed for a range of heavy metals including Al, Fe, Mn, Ti, Ce, Th, U, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, Te, Hg, Tl and Pb. Fraction analysis, enrichment factors and Principal Component Analysis –Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA-APCS) were carried out in order to assess metal pollution, potential bioavailability and source apportionment. Cr and Ni exceeded the Australian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines at some sampling sites, while Hg was found to be the most enriched metal. Fraction analysis identified increased weak acid soluble Hg and Cd during the sampling period. Source apportionment via PCA-APCS found four sources of metals pollution, namely, marine sediments, shipping, antifouling coatings and a mixed source. These sources need to be considered in any metal pollution control measure within Bramble Bay.

Coverage algorithms for an under-actuated car-like vehicle in an uncertain environment

A coverage algorithm is an algorithm that deploys a strategy as to how to cover all points in terms of a given area using some set of sensors. In the past decades a lot of research has gone into development of coverage algorithms. Initially, the focus was coverage of structured and semi-structured indoor areas, but with time and development of better sensors and introduction of GPS, the focus has turned to outdoor coverage. Due to the unstructured nature of an outdoor environment, covering an outdoor area with all its obstacles and simultaneously performing reliable localization is a difficult task. In this paper, two path planning algorithms suitable for solving outdoor coverage tasks are introduced. The algorithms take into account the kinematic constraints of an under-actuated car-like vehicle, minimize trajectory curvatures, and dynamically avoid detected obstacles in the vicinity, all in real-time. We demonstrate the performance of the coverage algorithm in the field by achieving 95% coverage using an autonomous tractor mower without the aid of any absolute localization system or constraints on the physical boundaries of the area.

Inter-cycle variability of ignition delay in an ethanol fumigated common rail diesel engine

An experimental study has been performed to investigate the ignition delay of a modern heavy-duty common-rail diesel engine run with fumigated ethanol substitutions up to 40% on an energy basis. The ignition delay was determined through the use of statistical modelling in a Bayesian framework this framework allows for the accurate determination of the start of combustion from single consecutive cycles and does not require any differentiation of the in-cylinder pressure signal. At full load the ignition delay has been shown to decrease with increasing ethanol substitutions and evidence of combustion with high ethanol substitutions prior to diesel injection have also been shown experimentally and by modelling. Whereas, at half load increasing ethanol substitutions have increased the ignition delay. A threshold absolute air to fuel ratio (mole basis) of above ~110 for consistent operation has been determined from the inter-cycle variability of the ignition delay, a result that agrees well with previous research of other in-cylinder parameters and further highlights the correlation between the air to fuel ratio and inter-cycle variability. Numerical modelling to investigate the sensitivity of ethanol combustion has also been performed. It has been shown that ethanol combustion is sensitive to the initial air temperature around the feasible operating conditions of the engine. Moreover, a negative temperature coefficient region of approximately 900{1050 K (the approximate temperature at fuel injection) has been shown with for n-heptane and n-heptane/ethanol blends in the numerical modelling. A consequence of this is that the dominate effect influencing the ignition delay under increasing ethanol substitutions may rather be from an increase in chemical reactions and not from in-cylinder temperature. Further investigation revealed that the chemical reactions at low ethanol substitutions are different compared to the high (> 20%) ethanol substitutions.

What determines weight loss behaviour and body weight satisfaction in Australia? Evidence from the HILDA survey

This thesis undertakes an empirical investigation to identify factors that influence the decision to undertake weight loss behaviour using the nationally representative HILDA dataset. Although many factors influenced the decision, the findings suggested that body weight satisfaction was the greatest determinant of weight loss dieting. This thesis therefore conducted a further empirical study to analyse the determinants of body weight satisfaction. A rank-hypothesis was found to better predict variation in body weight satisfaction levels than the absolute value of the individual's Body Mass Index (BMI) or the relative-norm hypothesis, which are commonly reported in the literature.

Cost effectiveness of osseointegration

Individuals with limb amputation fitted with conventional socket-suspended prostheses often experience socket-related discomfort leading to a significant decrease in quality of life. Bone-anchored prostheses are increasingly acknowledged as viable alternative method of attachment of artificial limb. In this case, the prosthesis is attached directly to the residual skeleton through a percutaneous fixation. To date, a few osseointegration fixations are commercially available. Several devices are at different stages of development particularly in Europe and the US. [1-15] Clearly, surgical procedures are currently blooming worldwide. Indeed, Australia and Queensland, in particular, have one of the fastest growing populations. Previous studies involving either screw-type implants or press-fit fixations for bone-anchorage have focused on biomechanics aspects as well as the clinical benefits and safety of the procedure. [16-25] In principle, bone-anchored prostheses should eliminate lifetime expenses associated with sockets and, consequently, potentially alleviate the financial burden of amputation for governmental organizations. Sadly, publications focusing on cost-effectiveness are sparse. In fact, only one study published by Haggstrom et al (2012), reported that “despite significantly fewer visits for prosthetic service the annual mean costs for osseointegrated prostheses were comparable with socket-suspended prostheses”.[26] Consequently, governmental organizations such as Queensland Artificial Limb Services (QALS) are facing a number of challenges while adjusting financial assistance schemes that should be fair and equitable to their clients fitted with bone-anchored prostheses. Clearly, more scientific evidence extracted from governmental databases is needed to further consolidate the analyses of financial burden associated with both methods of attachment (i.e., conventional sockets prostheses, bone-anchored prostheses). The purposes of the presentation will be: 1. To outline methodological avenues to assess the cost-effectiveness of bone-anchored prostheses compared to conventional sockets prostheses, 2. To highlight the potential obstacles and limitations in cost-effectiveness analyses of bone-anchored prostheses, 3. To present preliminary results of a cost-comparison analysis focusing on the comparison of the costs expressed in dollars over QALS funding cycles for both methods of attachment.

Osseointegration internationally: Australia is playing a key role?

Individuals with limb amputation fitted with conventional socket-suspended prostheses often experience socket-related discomfort leading to a significant decrease in quality of life. Bone-anchored prostheses are increasingly acknowledged as viable alternative method of attachment of artificial limb. In this case, the prosthesis is attached directly to the residual skeleton through a percutaneous fixation. To date, a few osseointegration fixations are commercially available. Several devices are at different stages of development particularly in Europe and the US.[1-15] Clearly, surgical procedures are currently blooming worldwide. Indeed, Australia and Queensland in particular have one of the fastest growing populations. Previous studies involving either screw-type implants or press-fit fixations for bone-anchorage have focused on fragmented biomechanics aspects as well as the clinical benefits and safety of the procedure. [16-25] However, very few publications have synthetized this information and provided an overview of the current developments in bone-anchored prostheses worldwide, let alone in Australia. The purposes of the presentation will be: 1. To provide an overview of the state-of-art developments in bone-anchored prostheses with as strong emphasis on the design of fixations, treatment, benefits, risks as well as future opportunities and challenges, 2. To present the current international developments of procedures for bone-anchored prostheses in terms of numbers of centers, number of cases and typical case-mix, 3. To highlight the current role Australia is playing as a leader worldwide in terms of growing population, broadest range of case-mix, choices of fixations, development of reimbursement schemes, unique clinical outcome registry for evidence-based practice, cutting-edge research, consumer demand and general public interest.

Proportionality : a valid alternative to correlation for relative data

Relative abundance data is common in the life sciences, but appreciation that it needs special analysis and interpretation is scarce. Correlation is popular as a statistical measure of pairwise association but should not be used on data that carry only relative information. Using timecourse yeast gene expression data, we show how correlation of relative abundances can lead to conclusions opposite to those drawn from absolute abundances, and that its value changes when different components are included in the analysis. Once all absolute information has been removed, only a subset of those associations will reliably endure in the remaining relative data, specifically, associations where pairs of values behave proportionally across observations. We propose a new statistic φ to describe the strength of proportionality between two variables and demonstrate how it can be straightforwardly used instead of correlation as the basis of familiar analyses and visualization methods.

Large-scale interlaboratory study to develop, analytically validate and apply highly multiplexed, quantitative peptide assays to measure cancer-relevant proteins in plasma

There is an increasing need in biology and clinical medicine to robustly and reliably measure tens-to-hundreds of peptides and proteins in clinical and biological samples with high sensitivity, specificity, reproducibility and repeatability. Previously, we demonstrated that LC-MRM-MS with isotope dilution has suitable performance for quantitative measurements of small numbers of relatively abundant proteins in human plasma, and that the resulting assays can be transferred across laboratories while maintaining high reproducibility and quantitative precision. Here we significantly extend that earlier work, demonstrating that 11 laboratories using 14 LC-MS systems can develop, determine analytical figures of merit, and apply highly multiplexed MRM-MS assays targeting 125 peptides derived from 27 cancer-relevant proteins and 7 control proteins to precisely and reproducibly measure the analytes in human plasma. To ensure consistent generation of high quality data we incorporated a system suitability protocol (SSP) into our experimental design. The SSP enabled real-time monitoring of LC-MRM-MS performance during assay development and implementation, facilitating early detection and correction of chromatographic and instrumental problems. Low to sub-nanogram/mL sensitivity for proteins in plasma was achieved by one-step immunoaffinity depletion of 14 abundant plasma proteins prior to analysis. Median intra- and inter-laboratory reproducibility was <20%, sufficient for most biological studies and candidate protein biomarker verification. Digestion recovery of peptides was assessed and quantitative accuracy improved using heavy isotope labeled versions of the proteins as internal standards. Using the highly multiplexed assay, participating laboratories were able to precisely and reproducibly determine the levels of a series of analytes in blinded samples used to simulate an inter-laboratory clinical study of patient samples. Our study further establishes that LC-MRM-MS using stable isotope dilution, with appropriate attention to analytical validation and appropriate quality c`ontrol measures, enables sensitive, specific, reproducible and quantitative measurements of proteins and peptides in complex biological matrices such as plasma.

Description of body posture during Static load bearing exercises for individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with bone-anchored prosthesis

The rehabilitation programs of bone-anchorage prostheses relying either on the OPRA (Integrum, Sweden) or the ILP (Orthodynamics, Germany) fixation involve some forms of static load bearing exercises (LBE). So far, most of biomechanical studies of these static LBEs focused on the direct measurements of the actual forces and moments applied on the OPRA fixation of individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA). To date, the proof-of-concept of an apparatus to conduct these kinetic measurements has been presented, along with some preliminary data. The understanding of the kinetic data is essential to improve rehabilitation programs as well as the design of upcoming loading frames. However, kinetic information alone is difficult to interpret without concomitant kinematic data. The purpose of this preliminary study was to introduce a qualitative analysis describing the different body postures during LBE for a group of TFAs.