Pandemic influenza control in Europe and the constraints resulting from incoherent public health laws.

Background With the emergence of influenza H1N1v the world is facing its first 21st century global pandemic. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza H5N1 prompted development of pandemic preparedness plans. National systems of public health law are essential for public health stewardship and for the implementation of public health policy[1]. International coherence will contribute to effective regional and global responses. However little research has been undertaken on how law works as a tool for disease control in Europe. With co-funding from the European Union, we investigated the extent to which laws across Europe support or constrain pandemic preparedness planning, and whether national differences are likely to constrain control efforts. Methods We undertook a survey of national public health laws across 32 European states using a questionnaire designed around a disease scenario based on pandemic influenza. Questionnaire results were reviewed in workshops, analysing how differences between national laws might support or hinder regional responses to pandemic influenza. Respondents examined the impact of national laws on the movements of information, goods, services and people across borders in a time of pandemic, the capacity for surveillance, case detection, case management and community control, the deployment of strategies of prevention, containment, mitigation and recovery and the identification of commonalities and disconnects across states. Results Results of this study show differences across Europe in the extent to which national pandemic policy and pandemic plans have been integrated with public health laws. We found significant differences in legislation and in the legitimacy of strategic plans. States differ in the range and the nature of intervention measures authorized by law, the extent to which borders could be closed to movement of persons and goods during a pandemic, and access to healthcare of non-resident persons. Some states propose use of emergency powers that might potentially override human rights protections while other states propose to limit interventions to those authorized by public health laws. Conclusion These differences could create problems for European strategies if an evolving influenza pandemic results in more serious public health challenges or, indeed, if a novel disease other than influenza emerges with pandemic potential. There is insufficient understanding across Europe of the role and importance of law in pandemic planning. States need to build capacity in public health law to support disease prevention and control policies. Our research suggests that states would welcome further guidance from the EU on management of a pandemic, and guidance to assist in greater commonality of legal approaches across states.

Anti-impérialisme et nouvelle gauche radicale dans la Suisse des années 68

Cette thèse entend apporter un éclairage sur l'histoire politique et sociale de la Suisse des années 68, en étudiant l'articulation entre les mouvements anti-impérialistes et la nouvelle gauche radicale, alors foisonnante. Il s'agit d'analyser cette période de contestation au prisme de l'anti-impérialisme révolutionnaire, lequel, dans le contexte de l'opposition à la guerre du Vietnam, a fortement imprégné le mouvement protestataire, en assignant notamment au tiers-monde le rôle de sujet de l'émancipation mondiale. Combinant une triple approche - chronologique, thématique et biographique - ce travail est structuré en quatre parties. La première partie esquisse un panorama des mouvements anti-impérialistes des années 1960 et 1970 en Suisse, avec une focalisation sur les «années anti-imp», entre 1968 et 1975. La deuxième interroge le rapport entre anti¬impérialisme et nouvelle gauche radicale, en proposant une typologie des principaux courants. La troisième partie s'attache à examiner le système de représentations du monde et de la Suisse véhiculé par le discours de l'extrême gauche. Prenant pour objet le militantisme, la dernière partie esquisse un portrait de groupe de la « génération anti-imp », fondé sur une enquête prosopographique et sur un corpus d'entretiens réalisés avec des militants de l'époque. L'étude révèle que l'anti-impérialisme a fourni à la contestation soixante-huitarde un cadre conceptuel et analytique, un facteur de structuration, ainsi qu'un vecteur de mobilisation. Il a en particulier permis à la gauche radicale suisse d'inscrire sa lutte anticapitaliste locale dans un horizon global d'émancipation. L'analyse de l'anti-impérialisme révolutionnaire, qui a connu son apogée dans les années 68 avant de connaître un déclin rapide et presque total, invite à appréhender cette « décennie mouvementée » comme la fin d'un long cycle politique. -- This thesis aims to shed light on the social and political history of Switzerland in the 1960s and 1970s by studying the relationship between anti-imperialist movements and the emerging new radical left. It analyses this time of rebellion through the prism of revolutionary anti-imperialism. In the context of opposition to the Vietnam War, anti-imperialism strongly influenced protest movements, notably by assigning to the Third World the role of main actor in the fight for global emancipation. Combining a threefold approach - chronological, thematic and biographical - this work is structured in four parts. The first part provides a panorama of the anti-imperialist movements of the long 1960s in Switzerland with a focus on the « anti-imp years » between 1968 and 1975. The second part questions the relationship between anti-imperialism and the new radical left and proposes a typology of its main currents. The third part examines how the radical left's discourse represented the world, and Switzerland in particular. The last part addresses the question of activism and outlines a group portrait of the « anti-imp generation » based on a prosopographical study and on a body of interviews with former activists. This study reveals that anti-imperialism, besides serving as an agent of mobilization, provided a conceptual and ideological framework, as well as a structuring factor, to the protest movements. In particular, it enabled the Swiss radical left to fit its local anti-capitalist struggle into a global horizon of emancipation. This analysis of revolutionary anti- imperialism, which had its heyday in the 1960s and 1970s before experiencing a rapid and almost total decline, thus invites us to see this « turbulent decade » as the end of a long political cycle.

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.

Genetic and environmental effects on early life-history traits in salmonids

Les changements environnementaux, tels la température ou les maladies infectieuses, peuvent influencer l'évolution en induisant de la sélection, mais ceci à la seule condition qu'il y ait assez de diversité génétique pour les traits en question ou pour l'expression plastique de ces traits. Au cours cette thèse, nous avons étudié l'effet de potentielles pressions environnementales sur différents phénotypes de trois représentants des sous familles des salmonidés: l'ombre commun (Thymallus thymallus; Thymallinae), la truite de rivière {Salmo trutta; Salmoninae) et le corégone Coregonus palaea (Coregoninae). Les salmonidés se prêtent particulièrement bien à ce type d'expériences car étant hautement sensibles aux conditions environnementales, ils montrent une large variabilité dans leurs traits morphologiques, comportementaux ainsi que d'histoire de vie, tout en bénéficiant d'un large intérêt général. Nous avons testé si le sexe de l'ombre commun pouvait être modifié par la température, ce qui pourrait ainsi expliquer un changement abrupte de sex ratio observé dans l'une des plus grandes populations de Suisse. Nous n'avons trouvé aucun indice permettant de conclure que la température puisse induire ce changement chez l'ombre commun ou chez la truite de rivière. De plus nous avons étudié la plasticité de développement ainsi que d'éclosion, et avons observé des différences entre familles ainsi qu'entre populations. Alors que ces différences comportementales entre populations suggéraient une adaptation aux conditions environnementales locales, cette prédiction n'a pas été confirmée par une expérience de transplantation réciproque d'embryons entre cinq rivières de la même région. Cette étude a montré que les embryons ne survivaient pas mieux dans leur rivière d'origine, indiquant donc une absence d'adaptation locale. Nous avons aussi montré que la mortalité embryonnaire était influencée autant par des "bons gènes" que par des "gènes compatibles", que la qualité des mâles pouvait être signalée par leur coloration, et que le fait d'élever des poissons dans une pisciculture pouvait aboutir a des relations contre-intuitives entre la coloration des mâles et la qualité de leur jeunes. Nos résultats contribuent ainsi à une meilleure compréhension de l'effet de diverses pressions environnementales sur la morphologie, le comportement ou les traits d'histoire de vie chez les salmonidés. - Environmental changes, such as changes in temperatures or infection levels, can induce selection and drive evolution if there is sufficient genetic variation for the traits or the plasticity in trait expression. In this thesis, we investigated the influence of potential environmental stressors on various phenotypes in representatives of the three salmonid subfamilies: the European grayling (Thymallus thymallus; Thymallinae), the brown trout (,Salmo trutta; Salmoninae), and the whitefish Coregonus palaea (Coregoninae). Salmonids are ideal study species, as they seem sensitive to changing environmental conditions, show considerable variability in morphological, behavioral, and life history traits, and are of broad public interest. We investigated whether temperature-induced sex reversal could explain the sex-ratio distortion found in one of Switzerland's largest grayling populations. We found no evidence of temperature-induced sex reversal in either graylings or brown trout. We also examined plasticity in embryo development and the timing of hatching. We found variation at the level of family and population. Although behavioral differences between populations suggested adaptation to local environmental conditions, no indications of local adaptation could be found in reciprocal transplant experiments carried out over five rivers in the same region. We also demonstrate that embryo development and viability is influenced by 'good genes' and 'compatible genes', that the genetic quality of sires can be signaled by their grey coloration, and that raising larvae in a hatchery environment can produce counter-intuitive relationships between male phenotypes and offspring viability. Our results contribute to the understanding of how changing environmental conditions affect the phenotypes and the heritability of early life-history traits in salmonids.

Agents and intermediaries

Managing Football is the first book to directly respond to the rapid managerial, commercial and global development of the sport and offers a thorough analysis of how the football industry can meet the challenges that flow from these developments. Expertly edited by two well known specialists in football business management, it draws together the work of a world-class contributor team to form a comprehensive analysis of the most important issues facing the managers of football businesses across the world. The cutting edge analysis examines all the important business challenges in the football industry and the management of football businesses and covers all of the key football markets including England, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Australia, North America, China, South Africa, South Korea, the Netherlands & Belgium, and Mexico. Managing Football is simply a must-read for anyone studying or working in football business management and is set to be an important landmark in this rapidly moving and globally expansive field.

Linking life-history traits, ecology, and niche breadth evolution in north american eriogonoids (polygonaceae).

Abstract Macroevolutionary and microevolutionary studies provide complementary explanations of the processes shaping the evolution of niche breadth. Macroevolutionary approaches scrutinize factors such as the temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneities that drive differentiation among species. Microevolutionary studies, in contrast, focus on the processes that affect intraspecific variability. We combine these perspectives by using macroevolutionary models in a comparative study of intraspecific variability. We address potential differences in rates of evolution of niche breadth and position in annual and perennial plants of the Eriogonoideae subfamily of the Polygonaceae. We anticipated higher rates of evolution in annuals than in perennials owing to differences in generation time that are paralleled by rates of molecular evolution. Instead, we found that perennial eriogonoid species present greater environmental tolerance (wider climate niche) than annual species. Niche breadth of perennial species has evolved two to four times faster than in annuals, while niche optimum has diversified more rapidly among annual species than among perennials. Niche breadth and average elevation of species are correlated. Moreover, niche breadth increases more rapidly with mean species elevation in perennials than in annuals. Our results suggest that both environmental gradients and life-history strategy influence rates and patterns of niche breadth evolution.

The impact of "early" nineteenth-century globalization on foreign trade in the Southern Cone: A study of British trade statistics

This paper deals with the impact of "early" nineteenth-century globalization (c.1815-1860) on foreign trade in the Southern Cone (SC). Most of the evidence is drawn from bilateral trades between Britain and the SC, at a time when Britain was the main commercial partner of the new republics. The main conclusion drawn is that early globalization had a positive impact on foreign trade in the SC, and this was due to: improvements in the SC's terms of trade during this period; the SC's per capita consumption of textiles (the main manufacture traded on world markets at that time) increased substantially during this period, at a time when clothing was one of the main items of SC household budgets; British merchants brought with them capital, shipping, insurance, and also facilitated the formation of vast global networks, which further promoted the SC's exports to a wider range of outlets.

Globalization and wage inequality in South and East Asia, and Latin America: A gender approach

In this paper we analyse the reasons behind the evolution of the gender gap and wage inequality in South and East Asian and Latin American countries. Health human capital improvements, the exposure to free market openness and equal treatment enforcement laws seem to be the main exogenous variables affecting women s economic condition. During the second globalization era (in the years 1975-2000) different combinations of these variables in South East Asian and Latin American countries have had as a result the diminution of the gender gap. The main exception to this rule according to our data is China where economic reforms have been simultaneous to the increase of gender differences and inequality between men and women.This result has further normative consequences for the measure of economic inequality. Theimprovement of women s condition has as a result the diminution of the dispersion of wages.Therefore in most of the countries analysed the consequence of the diminution of the gender gapduring the second global era is the decrease of wage inequality both measured with Gini and Theil indexes.

The disturbing 'rise' of global income inequality

We use aggregate GDP data and within-country income shares for theperiod 1970-1998 to assign a level of income to each person in theworld. We then estimate the gaussian kernel density function for theworldwide distribution of income. We compute world poverty rates byintegrating the density function below the poverty lines. The $1/daypoverty rate has fallen from 20% to 5% over the last twenty five years.The $2/day rate has fallen from 44% to 18%. There are between 300 and500 million less poor people in 1998 than there were in the 70s.We estimate global income inequality using seven different popularindexes: the Gini coefficient, the variance of log-income, two ofAtkinson s indexes, the Mean Logarithmic Deviation, the Theil indexand the coefficient of variation. All indexes show a reduction in globalincome inequality between 1980 and 1998. We also find that most globaldisparities can be accounted for by across-country, not within-country,inequalities. Within-country disparities have increased slightly duringthe sample period, but not nearly enough to offset the substantialreduction in across-country disparities. The across-country reductionsin inequality are driven mainly, but not fully, by the large growth rateof the incomes of the 1.2 billion Chinese citizens. Unless Africa startsgrowing in the near future, we project that income inequalities willstart rising again. If Africa does not start growing, then China, India,the OECD and the rest of middle-income and rich countries diverge awayfrom it, and global inequality will rise. Thus, the aggregate GDP growthof the African continent should be the priority of anyone concerned withincreasing global income inequality.

A century of global equity market correlations

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

On the origins of electoral systems and political parties. The role of elections in multi-member districts

The old, understudied electoral system composed of multi-member districts, open ballot and plurality rule is presented as the most remote scene of the origin of both political parties and new electoral systems. A survey of the uses of this set of electoral rules in different parts of the world during remote and recent periods shows its wide spread. A model of voting by this electoral system demonstrates that, while it can produce varied and pluralistic representation, it also provides incentives to form factional or partisan candidacies. Famous negative reactions to the emergence of factions and political parties during the 18th and 19th centuries are reinterpreted in this context. Many electoral rules and procedures invented since the second half of the 19th century, including the Australian ballot, single-member districts, limited and cumulative ballots, and proportional representation rules, derived from the search to reduce the effects of the originating multi-member district system in favor of a single party sweep. The general relations between political parties and electoral systems are restated to account for the foundational stage here discussed.

The rise and decline of children's labour participation levels during the early stages of industrialisation. Catalonia (1850-1925)

This article aims to analyse the reasons for the intensive use of childlabour in the 19th century and its subsequent decline in the first thirdof the 20th century in the context of an economy with a highly flexiblelabour supply like that of Catalonia. During the second half of the 19thcentury,factors relating to family economies, such as numerous familiesand low wages for adults, along with the technologies of the time thatrequired manual labour resources, would appear to explain the intensiveuse of child labour to the detriment of schooling. The technologicalchanges that occurred during the first third of the 20th century, thedemographic transition and adult wage increase (for both men and women)explain the schooling of children up to the age of 15 and theconsequent practical abolition of child labour in that new era ofeconomic modernisation.

Molecular epidemiology and evolution of HIV-1 in Portugal and portuguese speaking african countries

The aims of this thesis were to better characterize HIV-1 diversity in Portugal, Angola, Mozambique and Cape Verde and to investigate the origin and epidemiological history of HIV-1 in these countries. The impact of these issues in diagnosis, disease progression and susceptibility to ARV therapy was also investigated. Finally, the nature, dynamics and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) was determined in untreated HIV-1 infected patients. In Angola, practically all HIV-1 genetic forms were found, including almost all subtypes, untypable (U) strains, CRFs and URFs. Recombinants (first and second generation) were present in 47.1% of the patients. HIV/AIDS epidemic in Angola probably started in 1961, the major cause being the independence war, subsequently spreading to Portugal. In Maputo, 81% of the patients were infected with subtype C viruses. Subtype G, U and recombinants such as CRF37_cpx, were also present. The results suggest that HIV-1 epidemic in Mozambique is evolving rapidly in genetic complexity. In Cape Verde, where HIV-1 and HIV-2 co-circulate, subtype G is the prevailed subtype. Subtypes B, C, F1, U, CRF02_AG and other recombinant strains were also found. HIV-2 isolates belonged to group A, some being closely related to the original ROD isolate. In all three countries numerous new polymorphisms were identified in the RT and PR of HIV-1 viruses. Mutations conferring resistance to the NRTIs or NNRTIs were found in isolates from 2 (2%) patients from Angola, 4 (6%) from Mozambique and 3 (12%) from Cape Verde. None of the isolates containing TDR mutations would be fully sensitive to the standard first-line therapeutic regimens used in these countries. Close surveillance in treated and untreated populations will be crucial to prevent further transmission of drug resistant strains and maximize the efficacy of ARV therapy. In Portugal, investigation of a seronegative case infection with rapid progression to AIDS and death revealed that the patient was infected with a CRF14_BG-like R5-tropic strain selectively transmitted by his seropositive sexual partner. The results suggest a massive infection with a highly aggressive CRF14_BG like strain and/or the presence of an unidentified immunological problem that prevented the formation of HIV-1-specific antibodies. Near full-length genomic sequences obtained from three unrelated patients enabled the first molecular and phylogenomic characterization of CRF14_BG from Portugal; all sequences were strongly related with CRF14_BG Spanish isolates. The mean date of origin of CRF14_BG was estimated to be 1992. We propose that CRF14_BG emerged in Portugal in the early 1990s, spread to Spain in late 1990s as a consequence of IDUs migration and then to the rest of Europe. Most CRF14_BG strains were predicted to use CXCR4 and were associated with rapid CD4 depletion and disease progression. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that the X4 tropism of CRF14_BG may have resulted from convergent evolution of the V3 loop possibly driven by an effective escape from neutralizing antibody response.

Oil and economy in Mexico, 1900-1930s

This brief essay reviews the macro framework of oil and economy in Mexicoin the early days of the oil industry, from 1900 to 1938. The first sectiondisplays the figures of production at the world level and shows how Mexicobecome a major oil producer in the 1920s. The second section look at theMexican economy of the first third of the century followed by a thirdsection on the importance of the oil sector in terms of trade and fiscalincome. The last section reviews the literature and the outlooks of thecontemporaries over the development of the oil industry in the early partof the 20th century. The paper will be of use for those producing in depthanalyses of the Mexican oil industry in this period.