881 resultados para Wind fluctuations and their relationships with atmospheric stability and mixing height
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The business benefits of an outsourcing strategy are well documented, and HR is encouraged to outsource in order to add value. Yet little is known about how HR outsourcing affects the HR role, competencies and relationships with senior management. These issues are examined through 27 semi-structured interviews with senior HR professionals, comparing HR departments engaged in HR outsourcing with those maintaining full in-house HR provision. The findings indicate that HR outsourcing stymies HR role transformation. HR outsourcers experienced limited skill development and an increased focus on cost reduction at the expense of their strategic position. In contrast, non-HR outsourcers actively engaged in other parts of the business, developing competencies that garnered trust and support of senior managers. The benefits of an external HR community appear limited. The study suggests that an 'internal' HR community is better placed to enhance HR departmental roles. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Background: Qualitative research has suggested that spousal carers of someone with dementia differ in terms of whether they perceive their relationship with that person as continuous with the premorbid relationship or as radically different, and that a perception of continuity may be associated with more person-centered care and the experience of fewer of the negative emotions associated with caring. The aim of the study was to develop and evaluate a quantitative measure of the extent to which spousal carers perceive the relationship to be continuous. Methods: An initial pool of 42 questionnaire items was generated on the basis of the qualitative research about relationship continuity. These were completed by 51 spousal carers and item analysis was used to reduce the pool to 23 items. The retained items, comprising five subscales, were then administered to a second sample of 84 spousal carers, and the questionnaire's reliability, discriminative power, and validity were evaluated. Results: The questionnaire showed good reliability: Cronbach's α for the full scale was 0.947, and test-retest reliability was 0.932. Ferguson's δ was 0.987, indicating good discriminative power. Evidence of construct validity was provided by predicted patterns of subscale correlations with the Closeness and Conflict Scale and the Marwit-Meuser Caregiver Grief Inventory. Conclusion: Initial psychometric evaluation of the measure was encouraging. The measure provides a quantitative means of investigating ideas from qualitative research about the role of relationship continuity in influencing how spousal carers provide care and how they react emotionally to their caring role. © 2012 International Psychogeriatric Association.
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To explore the views of pharmacy and rheumatology stakeholders about system-related barriers to medicines optimisation activities with young people with long-term conditions. A three-phase consensus-building study comprising (1) focus groups with community and hospital pharmacists; (2) semi-structured telephone interviews with lay and professional adolescent rheumatology stakeholders and pharmacy policymakers, and (3) multidisciplinary discussion groups with community and hospital pharmacists and rheumatology staff. Qualitative verbatim transcripts from phases 1 and 2 were subjected to framework analysis. Themes from phase 1 underpinned a briefing for phase 2 interviewees. Themes from phases 1 and 2 generated elements of good pharmacy practice and current/future pharmacy roles for ranking in phase 3. Results from phase 3 prioritisation and ranking exercises were captured on self-completion data collection forms, entered into an Excel spreadsheet and subjected to descriptive statistical analysis. Institutional ethical approval was given by Aston University Health and Life Sciences Research Ethics Committee. Four focus groups were conducted with 18 pharmacists across England, Scotland and Wales (7 hospital, 10 community and 1 community/public health). Fifteen stakeholders took part in telephone interviews (3 pharmacist commissioners; 2 pharmacist policymakers; 2 pharmacy staff members (1 community and 1 hospital); 4 rheumatologists; 1 specialist nurse, and 3 lay juvenile arthritis advocates). Twenty-five participants took part in three discussion groups in adolescent rheumatology centres across England and Scotland (9 community pharmacists; 4 hospital pharmacists; 6 rheumatologists; 5 specialist nurses, and 1 physiotherapist). In all phases of the study, system-level issues were acknowledged as barriers to more engagement with young people and families. Community pharmacists in the focus groups reported that opportunities for engaging with young people were low if parents collected prescriptions alone, which was agreed by other stakeholders. Moreover, institutional/company prescription collection policies – an activity largely disallowed for a young person under 16 without an accompanying parent - were identified by hospital and community pharmacists as barriers to open discussion and engagement. Few community pharmacists reported using Medicines Use Review (England/Wales) or Chronic Medication Service (Scotland) as a medicines optimisation activity with young people; many were unsure about consent procedures. Despite these limitations, rheumatology stakeholders ranked highly the potential of pharmacists empowering young people with general health care skills, such as repeat prescription ordering. The pharmacy profession lacks vision for its role in the care of young people with long-term conditions. Pharmacists and rheumatology stakeholders identified system-level barriers to more engagement with young people who take medicines regularly. We acknowledge that the modest number of participants may have had a specific interest and thus bias for the topic, but this underscores their frank admission of the challenges. Professional guidance and policy, practice frameworks and institutional/company policies must promote flexibility for pharmacy staff to recognise and empower young people who are able to give consent and take responsibility for medicines activities. This will increase mutual confidence and trust, and foster pharmacy’s role in teaching general health care skills. In this way, pharmacists will be able to build long-term relationships with young people and families.
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The current study examined the role of three important components in the use of structured employment interviewing in performance prediction: construct bandwidth, observed communication skill, and the stability/dynamicity of performance criteria over time. A matched sample of 242 hospitality managers was derived from a field data set provided by a large hospitality management organization. Interview data and two years of performance appraisal data were provided. Bandwidth analysis demonstrated only minimal differences in prediction between matched predictor-criterion pairs compared with predictor to overall aggregate ratings (unmatched). The communication skill analysis revealed that this interviewer rated observation significantly predicted a number of the individual performance dimensions as well as overall performance over time. Of the five interview items, the strongest overall predictor of performance was interviewer rated communication skill. The stability/dynamicity analyses demonstrated the performance criteria to be generally stable over the two year period examined, which provides support for the long held notion that performance criteria is stabile over time. However, there were two exceptions. The interview dimension customer service orientation had shifting relationships over time with four of the criteria over the two year period. The performance criteria employee development also demonstrated some instability in its relationships with predictors. Thus, some evidence of dynamicity in performance criteria was revealed. Interestingly, both of the most noteworthy findings in the study involved items that were rated differently than the others in the study. The rated interview item communication skill and the rated performance criteria client satisfaction were ratings that involved a more direct level of observation. Additional analyses also revealed evidence of a general factor of performance. These two themes are more fully covered in the discussion.
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Buildings and other infrastructures located in the coastal regions of the US have a higher level of wind vulnerability. Reducing the increasing property losses and causalities associated with severe windstorms has been the central research focus of the wind engineering community. The present wind engineering toolbox consists of building codes and standards, laboratory experiments, and field measurements. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7 standard provides wind loads only for buildings with common shapes. For complex cases it refers to physical modeling. Although this option can be economically viable for large projects, it is not cost-effective for low-rise residential houses. To circumvent these limitations, a numerical approach based on the techniques of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been developed. The recent advance in computing technology and significant developments in turbulence modeling is making numerical evaluation of wind effects a more affordable approach. The present study targeted those cases that are not addressed by the standards. These include wind loads on complex roofs for low-rise buildings, aerodynamics of tall buildings, and effects of complex surrounding buildings. Among all the turbulence models investigated, the large eddy simulation (LES) model performed the best in predicting wind loads. The application of a spatially evolving time-dependent wind velocity field with the relevant turbulence structures at the inlet boundaries was found to be essential. All the results were compared and validated with experimental data. The study also revealed CFD's unique flow visualization and aerodynamic data generation capabilities along with a better understanding of the complex three-dimensional aerodynamics of wind-structure interactions. With the proper modeling that realistically represents the actual turbulent atmospheric boundary layer flow, CFD can offer an economical alternative to the existing wind engineering tools. CFD's easy accessibility is expected to transform the practice of structural design for wind, resulting in more wind-resilient and sustainable systems by encouraging optimal aerodynamic and sustainable structural/building design. Thus, this method will help ensure public safety and reduce economic losses due to wind perils.
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Low-rise buildings are often subjected to high wind loads during hurricanes that lead to severe damage and cause water intrusion. It is therefore important to estimate accurate wind pressures for design purposes to reduce losses. Wind loads on low-rise buildings can differ significantly depending upon the laboratory in which they were measured. The differences are due in large part to inadequate simulations of the low-frequency content of atmospheric velocity fluctuations in the laboratory and to the small scale of the models used for the measurements. A new partial turbulence simulation methodology was developed for simulating the effect of low-frequency flow fluctuations on low-rise buildings more effectively from the point of view of testing accuracy and repeatability than is currently the case. The methodology was validated by comparing aerodynamic pressure data for building models obtained in the open-jet 12-Fan Wall of Wind (WOW) facility against their counterparts in a boundary-layer wind tunnel. Field measurements of pressures on Texas Tech University building and Silsoe building were also used for validation purposes. The tests in partial simulation are freed of integral length scale constraints, meaning that model length scales in such testing are only limited by blockage considerations. Thus the partial simulation methodology can be used to produce aerodynamic data for low-rise buildings by using large-scale models in wind tunnels and WOW-like facilities. This is a major advantage, because large-scale models allow for accurate modeling of architectural details, testing at higher Reynolds number, using greater spatial resolution of the pressure taps in high pressure zones, and assessing the performance of aerodynamic devices to reduce wind effects. The technique eliminates a major cause of discrepancies among measurements conducted in different laboratories and can help to standardize flow simulations for testing residential homes as well as significantly improving testing accuracy and repeatability. Partial turbulence simulation was used in the WOW to determine the performance of discontinuous perforated parapets in mitigating roof pressures. The comparisons of pressures with and without parapets showed significant reductions in pressure coefficients in the zones with high suctions. This demonstrated the potential of such aerodynamic add-on devices to reduce uplift forces.
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Deep sea manganese nodules from the Central Pacific Basin are mainly composed of 10Å manganite and d-MnO2 Two zones equivalent to the minerals are evidently distinguishable according to their optical properties. Microscopic and microprobe analyses revealed quite different chemical compositions and textnral characteristics of the two zones. These different feature of the two zones of nodules suggest the different conditions under which they were formed. Concentrations of 11 metal elements in the zones and inter-element relationships show that the 10Å manganite zone is a monomineralic oxide phase containing a large amount of manganese and minor amounts of useful metals, and that the d-MnO2 zone which is apparently homogeneous under the microscope is a mixture of three or more different minerals. The chemical characteristics of the two zones can explain the variation of bulk composition of deep sea manganese nodules and inter-element relationships previously reported, suggesting that the bulk compositions are attributable to the mixing of the 10Å manganite and d-MnO2 zones in various ratios. Characteristic morphology and surface structure of some types of nodules and their relationships to chemistry are also attribut able to the textural and chemical features of the above mentioned two phases. Synthesis of hydrated manganese oxides was carried out in terms of the formation of manganese minerals in the ocean. The primary product which is an equivalent to d-MnO2 was precipitated from Mn 2+ -bearing alkaline solution under oxigenated condition by air bubbling at one atmospheric pressure and room temperature. The primary product was converted to a l0Å manganite equivalent by contact with Ni 2+, Cu 2++ or CO2+ chloride solutions. This reaction caused the decrease of Ni2+, Cu2+ or CO2+ concentrations and the increase of Na+ concentration in the solution. The reaction also proceeded even in diluted solutions of nickel chloride and resulted in a complete removal of Ni2+ from the solution. Reaction products were exclusively 10Å manganite equivalents and their chemical compositions were very similar to those of 10Å manganite in manganese nodules. The maximum value of(Cu+Ni+Co)/Mn ratio of 10Å manganite zones in manganese nodules is 0.16, and the Ni/Mn ratio of synthetic 10Å manganite ranges from 0.15 to 0.18 with the average of 0.167.
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The tropical echinoid Echinometra viridis was reared in controlled laboratory experiments at temperatures of approximately 20°C and 30°C to mimic winter and summer temperatures and at carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressures of approximately 487 ppm-v and 805 ppm-v to simulate current and predicted-end-of-century levels. Spine material produced during the experimental period and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of the corresponding culture solutions were then analyzed for stable oxygen (delta 18Oe, delta 18ODIC) and carbon (The tropical echinoid Echinometra viridis was reared in controlled laboratory experiments at temperatures of approximately 20°C and 30°C to mimic winter and summer temperatures and at carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressures of approximately 487 ppm-v and 805 ppm-v to simulate current and predicted-end-of-century levels. Spine material produced during the experimental period and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of the corresponding culture solutions were then analyzed for stable oxygen (delta18Oe, delta18ODIC) and carbon (delta13Ce, delta13CDIC) isotopic composition. Fractionation of oxygen stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (delta18O = delta18Oe - delta18ODIC) was significantly inversely correlated with seawater temperature but not significantly correlated with atmospheric pCO2. Fractionation of carbon stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (Delta delta13C = delta13Ce - delta13CDIC) was significantly positively correlated with pCO2 and significantly inversely correlated with temperature, with pCO2 functioning as the primary factor and temperature moderating the pCO2-delta13C relationship. Echinoid calcification rate was significantly inversely correlated with both delta18O and delta13C, both within treatments (i.e., pCO2 and temperature fixed) and across treatments (i.e., with effects of pCO2 and temperature controlled for through ANOVA). Therefore, calcification rate and potentially the rate of co-occurring dissolution appear to be important drivers of the kinetic isotope effects observed in the echinoid spines. Study results suggest that echinoid delta18O monitors seawater temperature, but not atmospheric pCO2, and that echinoid delta13C monitors atmospheric pCO2, with temperature moderating this relationship. These findings, coupled with echinoids' long and generally high-quality fossil record, supports prior assertions that fossil echinoid delta18O is a viable archive of paleo-seawater temperature throughout Phanerozoic time, and that delta13C merits further investigation as a potential proxy of paleo-atmospheric pCO2. However, the apparent impact of calcification rate on echinoid delta18O and delta13C suggests that paleoceanographic reconstructions derived from these proxies in fossil echinoids could be improved by incorporating the effects of growth rate.13Ce, delta13CDIC) isotopic composition. Fractionation of oxygen stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (delta18O = delta18Oe - delta18ODIC) was significantly inversely correlated with seawater temperature but not significantly correlated with atmospheric pCO2. Fractionation of carbon stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (delta13C = delta13Ce - delta13CDIC) was significantly positively correlated with pCO2 and significantly inversely correlated with temperature, with pCO2 functioning as the primary factor and temperature moderating the pCO2-delta13C relationship. Echinoid calcification rate was significantly inversely correlated with both delta18O and delta13C, both within treatments (i.e., pCO2 and temperature fixed) and across treatments (i.e., with effects of pCO2 and temperature controlled for through ANOVA). Therefore, calcification rate and potentially the rate of co-occurring dissolution appear to be important drivers of the kinetic isotope effects observed in the echinoid spines. Study results suggest that echinoid delta18O monitors seawater temperature, but not atmospheric pCO2, and that echinoid delta13C monitors atmospheric pCO2, with temperature moderating this relationship. These findings, coupled with echinoids' long and generally high-quality fossil record, supports prior assertions that fossil echinoid delta18O is a viable archive of paleo-seawater temperature throughout Phanerozoic time, and that delta13C merits further investigation as a potential proxy of paleo-atmospheric pCO2. However, the apparent impact of calcification rate on echinoid delta18O and delta13C suggests that paleoceanographic reconstructions derived from these proxies in fossil echinoids could be improved by incorporating the effects of growth rate.
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The stabilization of energy supply in Brazil has been a challenge for the operation of the National Interconnected System in face of hydrological and climatic variations. Thermoelectric plants have been used as an emergency source for periods of water scarcity. The utilization of fossil fuels, however, has elevated the cost of electricity. On the other hand, offshore wind energy has gained importance in the international context and is competitive enough to become a possibility for future generation in Brazil. In this scenario, the main goal of this thesis was to investigate the magnitude and distribution of offshore wind resources, and also verify the possibilities of complementing hydropower. A data series of precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Blended Sea Winds from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC/NOAA) were used. According to statistical criteria, three types of complementarity were found in the Brazilian territory: hydro × hydro, wind × wind and hydro × wind. It was noted a significant complementarity between wind and hydro resources (r = -0.65), mainly for the hydrographical basins of the southeast and central regions with Northeastern Brazil winds. To refine the extrapolation of winds over the ocean, a method based on the Monin-Obukhov theory was used to model the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer. Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Flux (OAFLUX) datasets for heat flux, temperature and humidity, and also sea level pressure data from NCEP/NCAR were used. The ETOPO1 from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC/NOAA) provided bathymetric data. It was found that shallow waters, between 0-20 meters, have a resource estimated at 559 GW. The contribution of wind resources to hydroelectric reservoir operation was investigated with a simplified hybrid wind-hydraulic model, and reservoir level, inflow, outflow and turbine production data. It was found that the hybrid system avoids drought periods, continuously saving water from reservoirs through wind production. Therefore, from the results obtained, it is possible to state that the good winds from the Brazilian coast can, besides diversifying the electric matrix, stabilize the hydrological fluctuations avoiding rationing and blackouts, reducing the use of thermal power plants, increasing the production cost and emission of greenhouse gases. Public policies targeted to offshore wind energy will be necessary for its full development.
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In this dissertation, we develop a novel methodology for characterizing and simulating nonstationary, full-field, stochastic turbulent wind fields.
In this new method, nonstationarity is characterized and modeled via temporal coherence, which is quantified in the discrete frequency domain by probability distributions of the differences in phase between adjacent Fourier components.
The empirical distributions of the phase differences can also be extracted from measured data, and the resulting temporal coherence parameters can quantify the occurrence of nonstationarity in empirical wind data.
This dissertation (1) implements temporal coherence in a desktop turbulence simulator, (2) calibrates empirical temporal coherence models for four wind datasets, and (3) quantifies the increase in lifetime wind turbine loads caused by temporal coherence.
The four wind datasets were intentionally chosen from locations around the world so that they had significantly different ambient atmospheric conditions.
The prevalence of temporal coherence and its relationship to other standard wind parameters was modeled through empirical joint distributions (EJDs), which involved fitting marginal distributions and calculating correlations.
EJDs have the added benefit of being able to generate samples of wind parameters that reflect the characteristics of a particular site.
Lastly, to characterize the effect of temporal coherence on design loads, we created four models in the open-source wind turbine simulator FAST based on the \windpact turbines, fit response surfaces to them, and used the response surfaces to calculate lifetime turbine responses to wind fields simulated with and without temporal coherence.
The training data for the response surfaces was generated from exhaustive FAST simulations that were run on the high-performance computing (HPC) facilities at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
This process was repeated for wind field parameters drawn from the empirical distributions and for wind samples drawn using the recommended procedure in the wind turbine design standard \iec.
The effect of temporal coherence was calculated as a percent increase in the lifetime load over the base value with no temporal coherence.
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The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.
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In Western industrialized countries, it is well established that legally competent individuals may choose a surrogate healthcare decision-maker to represent their interests should they lose the capacity to do so themselves. There are few limitations on who they may select to fulfill this function. However, many jurisdictions place restrictions on or prohibit the patient's attending physician or other provider involved with an individual's care to serve in this role. Several authors have previously suggested that respect for the autonomy of patients requires that there be few (if any) constraints on whomever they may appoint as a proxy. In this essay we revisit this topic by first providing a survey of current state laws governing this activity. We then analyze the clinical and ethical circumstances in which potential difficulties could arise. We take a more nuanced and circumspect view of prior suggestions that patients should have virtually unfettered liberty to choose their healthcare proxies. We suggest a strategy to balance the freedom of patients' right to choose their surrogates with fiduciary duty of the state as regulator of medical practice. We identify six domains of possible concern with such relationships and suggest straightforward methods of mitigating their potential negative effects that could be plausibly be incorporated into physician practice.
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The composition of atmospheric particles is an important factor in determining their impact on climate and health. In this study, an aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS) was used to measure the chemical composition of ambient single particles at two contrasting locations – an industrial site in Dunkirk, France and a regional background site in Corsica. The ATOFMS data were combined with meteorological information and other particle measurements to determine the various sources of the particles observed at the sites. The particle classes detected in Dunkirk included carbonaceous species from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, metal-containing types from local industries and seasalt. Highest particle number concentrations and mass concentrations of PM2.5, black carbon, organics, nitrate, ammonium and several metallic species (Fe, Mn, Pb, Zn) were found during periods heavily influenced by local industry. Particles from a ferromanganese alloy manufacturing facility were identified by comparing ambient ATOFMS data with single particle mass spectra from industrial chimney filters and ores. Particles from a steelworks were identified based on comparison of the ambient data with previous studies. Based on these comparisons, the steelworks was identified as the dominant emitter of Fe-rich particles, while the ferromanganese alloy facility emitted Mn-rich particles. In Corsica, regional transport of carbonaceous particles from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion was identified as the major source of particles in the Mediterranean background aerosol. Throughout the campaign the site was influenced by air masses altering the composition of particles detected. During North Atlantic air masses the site was heavily influenced by fresh sea salt. Regional stagnation was the most common type of air mass regime throughout the campaign and resulted in the accumulation of carbonaceous particles during certain periods. Mass concentrations were estimated for ATOFMS particle classes, and good agreement was found between the major carbonaceous classes and other quantitative measurements. Overall the results of this work serve to highlight the excellent ability of the ATOFMS technique in providing source-specific composition and mixing state information on atmospheric particles at high time resolution.
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Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.
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The Green Economy offers real possibilities for productive innovation, economic growth and employment creation in Spain. These three factors are critical to facilitate the necessary change in the productive model to overcome the crisis. However, the measures taken by the current Conservative government have moved in the opposite direction: significant cutting in incentives for renewable, increasing tax burden on renewable energy production to self-consumption and privatizing public spaces of social and environmental interest. This hinders the achievement of the environmental objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy. A strategy that is born already in itself highly limited, unambitious and subordinated to the interests of energy oligopolies and the imperatives of the Stability and Growth Pact (Maastricht) and the Austerity policies imposed from EU institutions to overcome the 2008 financial crisis. So the Ecological Transition goes further, claiming a substantially change in Economic Policy away form the increasing commodification proposed by the Green Economy. Despite these limitations, young and unemployed people have much to gain from a comprehensive development of environmental industries. Therefore, innovative-sustainable plans, investment and training in green sectors are necessary to make easier the transition from a services low-valued economy to an innovative and sustainable model to make our country an environmental reference in Europe.