Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

In vitro fermentation and prebiotic potential of novel low molecular weight polysaccharides derived from agar and alginate seaweeds

Fermentation properties and prebiotic potential of novel low molecular weight polysaccharides (LMWPs) derived from agar and alginate bearing seaweeds was investigated. Ten LMWPs were supplemented to pH, temperature controlled anaerobic batch cultures inoculated with human feces from three donors, in triplicate. Microbiota changes were monitored using Fluorescent in-situ hybridization and short chain fatty acids, the fermentation end products were analysed using gas chromatography. Of the ten LMWPs tested, Gelidium seaweed CC2253 of molecular weight 64.64 KDa showed a significant increase in bifidobacterial populations from log(10) 8.06 at 0 h to log(10) 8.55 at 24 h (p = 0.018). For total bacterial populations, alginate powder CC2238 produced a significant increase from log(10) 9.01 at 0 h to log(10) 9.58 at 24 h (p = 0.032). No changes were observed in the other bacterial groups tested viz. Bacteroides, Lactobacilli/Enterococci, Eubacterium rectale/Clostridium coccoides and Clostridium histolyticum. The polysaccharides also showed significant increases in total SCFA production, particularly acetic and propionic acids, indicating that they were readily fermented. In conclusion, some LMWPs derived from agar and alginate bearing seaweeds were fermented by gut bacteria and exhibited potential to be used a novel source of prebiotics.

Consumer perceptions of poultry meat: a qualitative analysis

Consumer studies of meat have tended to use quantitative methodologies providing a wealth of statistically malleable information, but little in-depth insight into consumer perceptions of meat. The aim of the present study was therefore, to understand factors perceived important in the selection of chicken meat, using qualitative methodology. Focus group discussions were tape recorded, transcribed verbatim and content analysed for major themes. Themes arising implied that “appearance” and “convenience” were the most important determinants of choice of chicken meat and these factors appeared to be associated with perceptions of freshness, healthiness, product versatility and concepts of value. A descriptive model has been developed to illustrate the interrelationship between factors affecting chicken meat choice. This study indicates that those involved in the production and retailing of chicken products should concentrate upon product appearance and convenience as market drivers for their products.

Office sustainability: occupier perceptions and implementation of policy

Purpose – The purpose of this research was twofold. First, to investigate the views of occupiers in a typical UK city on the importance of various sustainability issues, their perceived impact of different sustainability drivers and willingness to pay. Second, the environmental and social performance of existing buildings in that city was examined. Design/methodology/approach – The research focuses on buildings of 10,000 feet2 or more that have been constructed in the Bristol city-region in the UK over the past 50 years. The buildings in the sample are located in the city centre and in out-of-town business parks. A questionnaire survey investigated the views of occupiers and follow-up interviews looked more closely at the sustainability performance of the existing stock. Findings – The findings indicate that, as far as occupiers are concerned, the strongest drivers are consumer demand and staff demand. Green features of a building appear to rank low in the overall building selection preference structure and a willingness to pay a premium for green features was indicated. The interviews uncovered barriers to progress as well as initiatives to reduce both energy consumption and the environmental impact of office space. Practical implications – The paper identifies progress and issues which could form obstacles to improving the environmental performance of office buildings. It is argued that there is a need to focus on energy efficiency. Originality/value – This paper explores the linkage between the perception and use of office space by occupants and how this affects the environmental performance of this space.

Learners’ perceptions of being identified as very able: insights from Modern Foreign Languages and Physical Education

While learners’ attitudes to Modern Foreign Languages (MFL) and to Physical Education (PE) in the UK have been widely investigated in previous research, an under-explored area is learners’ feelings about being highly able in these subjects. The present study explored this issue, among 78 learners (aged 12-13) from two schools in England, a Specialist Language College, and a Specialist Sports College. Learners completed a questionnaire exploring their feelings about the prospect of being identified as gifted/talented in these subjects, and their perceptions of the characteristics of highly able learners in MFL and PE. Questionnaires were chosen as the data collection method to encourage more open responses from these young learners than might have been elicited in an interview. While learners were enthusiastic about the idea of being highly able in both subjects, this enthusiasm was more muted for MFL. School specialism was related to learners’ enthusiasm only in the Sports College. Learners expressed fairly stereotypical views of the characteristics of the highly able in MFL and PE. The relevance of these findings for motivation and curriculum design within both subjects is discussed.

The professional voice: comparing questionnaire and telephone methods in a national survey of teachers' perceptions

This article compares the results obtained from using two different methodological approaches to elicit teachers’ views on their professional role, the key challenges and their aspirations for the future. One approach used a postal/online questionnaire, while the other used telephone interviews, posing a selection of the same questions. The research was carried out on two statistically comparable samples of teachers in England in spring 2004. Significant differences in responses were observed which seem to be attributable to the methods employed. In particular, more ‘definite’ responses were obtained in the interviews than in response to the questionnaire. This article reviews the comparative outcomes in the context of existing research and explores why the separate methods may have produced significantly different responses to the same questions.

A method to weight three categories of adaptive thermal comfort

The adaptive thermal comfort theory considers people as active rather than passive recipients in response to ambient physical thermal stimuli, in contrast with conventional, heat-balance-based, thermal comfort theory. Occupants actively interact with the environments they occupy by means of utilizing adaptations in terms of physiological, behavioural and psychological dimensions to achieve ‘real world’ thermal comfort. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the physiological, behavioural and psychological portions of the adaptation process by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on the case studies conducted in the UK and China. Apart from three categories of adaptations which are viewed as criteria, six possible alternatives are considered: physiological indices/health status, the indoor environment, the outdoor environment, personal physical factors, environmental control and thermal expectation. With the AHP technique, all the above-mentioned criteria, factors and corresponding elements are arranged in a hierarchy tree and quantified by using a series of pair-wise judgements. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to improve the quality of these results. The proposed quantitative weighting method provides researchers with opportunities to better understand the adaptive mechanisms and reveal the significance of each category for the achievement of adaptive thermal comfort.

The effect of the molecular weight on the electro-optic properties of methacrylate-based side-chain liquid crystal polymers

A series of methacrylate-based side-chain liquid crystal polymers has been prepared with a range of molecular weights. For the high molecular weight polymers a smectic phase is observed with a very narrow nematic range; however, for low molecular weight polymers only the nematic phase is observed. A marked reduction in the glass transition temperature, TSN and TNI is observed with a reduction in the molecular weight. The orientational order parameters for these polymers in the liquid crystal phase have been determined using infra-red dichroism. It is found that the higher the molecular weight of the polymer, the greater is the threshold voltage of the electro-optic response and the lower the order parameter. The increase in the threshold voltage with increasing molecular weight may be related to the intrinsic curvature elasticity and hence to the coupling between the mesogenic units and the polymer backbone.