Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.

The induced generalized OWA operator

We present the induced generalized ordered weighted averaging (IGOWA) operator. It is a new aggregation operator that generalizes the OWA operator by using the main characteristics of two well known aggregation operators: the generalized OWA and the induced OWA operator. Then, this operator uses generalized means and order inducing variables in the reordering process. With this formulation, we get a wide range of aggregation operators that include all the particular cases of the IOWA and the GOWA operator, and a lot of other cases such as the induced ordered weighted geometric (IOWG) operator and the induced ordered weighted quadratic averaging (IOWQA) operator. We further generalize the IGOWA operator by using quasi-arithmetic means. The result is the Quasi-IOWA operator. Finally, we also develop a numerical example of the new approach in a financial decision making problem.

Indicators for the characterization of discrete Choquet integrals

Ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators and their extensions are powerful tools used in numerous decision-making problems. This class of operator belongs to a more general family of aggregation operators, understood as discrete Choquet integrals. Aggregation operators are usually characterized by indicators. In this article four indicators usually associated with the OWA operator are extended to discrete Choquet integrals: namely, the degree of balance, the divergence, the variance indicator and Renyi entropies. All of these indicators are considered from a local and a global perspective. Linearity of indicators for linear combinations of capacities is investigated and, to illustrate the application of results, indicators of the probabilistic ordered weighted averaging -POWA- operator are derived. Finally, an example is provided to show the application to a specific context.

Networks of noisy oscillators with correlated degree and frequency dispersion

We investigate how correlations between the diversity of the connectivity of networks and the dynamics at their nodes affect the macroscopic behavior. In particular, we study the synchronization transition of coupled stochastic phase oscillators that represent the node dynamics. Crucially in our work, the variability in the number of connections of the nodes is correlated with the width of the frequency distribution of the oscillators. By numerical simulations on Erdös-Rényi networks, where the frequencies of the oscillators are Gaussian distributed, we make the counterintuitive observation that an increase in the strength of the correlation is accompanied by an increase in the critical coupling strength for the onset of synchronization. We further observe that the critical coupling can solely depend on the average number of connections or even completely lose its dependence on the network connectivity. Only beyond this state, a weighted mean-field approximation breaks down. If noise is present, the correlations have to be stronger to yield similar observations.

Measuring Intermediary Determinants of Early Childhood Health: A Composite Index Comparing Colombian Departments

In recent years there has been growing interest in composite indicators as an efficient tool of analysis and a method of prioritizing policies. This paper presents a composite index of intermediary determinants of child health using a multivariate statistical approach. The index shows how specific determinants of child health vary across Colombian departments (administrative subdivisions). We used data collected from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for 32 departments and the capital city, Bogotá. Adapting the conceptual framework of Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH), five dimensions related to child health are represented in the index: material circumstances, behavioural factors, psychosocial factors, biological factors and the health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables, and taking into account the discrete nature of the data, principal component analysis (PCA) using polychoric correlations was employed in constructing the index. From this method five principal components were selected. The index was estimated using a weighted average of the retained components. A hierarchical cluster analysis was also carried out. The results show that the biggest differences in intermediary determinants of child health are associated with health care before and during delivery.

Effects of Three Types of Exercise Interventions on Healthy Old Adults' Gait Speed : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Habitual walking speed predicts many clinical conditions later in life, but it declines with age. However, which particular exercise intervention can minimize the age-related gait speed loss is unclear. PURPOSE: Our objective was to determine the effects of strength, power, coordination, and multimodal exercise training on healthy old adults' habitual and fast gait speed. METHODS: We performed a computerized systematic literature search in PubMed and Web of Knowledge from January 1984 up to December 2014. Search terms included 'Resistance training', 'power training', 'coordination training', 'multimodal training', and 'gait speed (outcome term). Inclusion criteria were articles available in full text, publication period over past 30 years, human species, journal articles, clinical trials, randomized controlled trials, English as publication language, and subject age ≥65 years. The methodological quality of all eligible intervention studies was assessed using the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale. We computed weighted average standardized mean differences of the intervention-induced adaptations in gait speed using a random-effects model and tested for overall and individual intervention effects relative to no-exercise controls. RESULTS: A total of 42 studies (mean PEDro score of 5.0 ± 1.2) were included in the analyses (2495 healthy old adults; age 74.2 years [64.4-82.7]; body mass 69.9 ± 4.9 kg, height 1.64 ± 0.05 m, body mass index 26.4 ± 1.9 kg/m(2), and gait speed 1.22 ± 0.18 m/s). The search identified only one power training study, therefore the subsequent analyses focused only on the effects of resistance, coordination, and multimodal training on gait speed. The three types of intervention improved gait speed in the three experimental groups combined (n = 1297) by 0.10 m/s (±0.12) or 8.4 % (±9.7), with a large effect size (ES) of 0.84. Resistance (24 studies; n = 613; 0.11 m/s; 9.3 %; ES: 0.84), coordination (eight studies, n = 198; 0.09 m/s; 7.6 %; ES: 0.76), and multimodal training (19 studies; n = 486; 0.09 m/s; 8.4 %, ES: 0.86) increased gait speed statistically and similarly. CONCLUSIONS: Commonly used exercise interventions can functionally and clinically increase habitual and fast gait speed and help slow the loss of gait speed or delay its onset.

Does evolution lead to maximizing behavior?

A long-standing question in biology and economics is whether individual organisms evolve to behave as if they were striving to maximize some goal function. We here formalize this "as if" question in a patch-structured population in which individuals obtain material payoffs from (perhaps very complex multimove) social interactions. These material payoffs determine personal fitness and, ultimately, invasion fitness. We ask whether individuals in uninvadable population states will appear to be maximizing conventional goal functions (with population-structure coefficients exogenous to the individual's behavior), when what is really being maximized is invasion fitness at the genetic level. We reach two broad conclusions. First, no simple and general individual-centered goal function emerges from the analysis. This stems from the fact that invasion fitness is a gene-centered multigenerational measure of evolutionary success. Second, when selection is weak, all multigenerational effects of selection can be summarized in a neutral type-distribution quantifying identity-by-descent between individuals within patches. Individuals then behave as if they were striving to maximize a weighted sum of material payoffs (own and others). At an uninvadable state it is as if individuals would freely choose their actions and play a Nash equilibrium of a game with a goal function that combines self-interest (own material payoff), group interest (group material payoff if everyone does the same), and local rivalry (material payoff differences).

Measuring early childhood health : a composite index comparing Colombian departments

This paper presents a composite index of early childhood health using a multivariate statistical approach. The index shows how child health varies across Colombian departments, -administrative subdivisions-. In recent years there has been growing interest in composite indicators as an efficient analysis tool and a way of prioritizing policies. These indicators not only enable multi-dimensional phenomena to be simplified but also make it easier to measure, visualize, monitor and compare a country’s performance in particular issues. We used data collected from the Colombian Demographic and Health Survey, DHS, for 32 departments and the capital city, Bogotá, in 2005 and 2010. The variables included in the index provide a measure of three dimensions related to child health: health status, health determinants and the health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables and take into account the discrete nature of the data, we employed a principal component analysis, PCA, using polychoric correlation. From this method, five principal components were selected. The index was estimated using a weighted average of the components retained. A hierarchical cluster analysis was also carried out. We observed that the departments ranking in the lowest positions are located on the Colombian periphery. They are departments with low per capita incomes and they present critical social indicators. The results suggest that the regional disparities in child health may be associated with differences in parental characteristics, household conditions and economic development levels, which makes clear the importance of context in the study of child health in Colombia.

Ultra-high Field (7 T) MRI and a Novel Robust Segmentation of Thalamic Nuclei on DWI for Gamma Knife Surgery Purposes: The Targeting of the Ventrointermediate Nucleus

Introduction: Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) is a noninvasive neurosurgical stereotactic procedure, increasingly used as an alternative to open functional procedures. This includes the targeting of the ventrointermediate nucleus of the thalamus (e.g., Vim) for tremor. Objective: To enhance anatomic imaging for Vim GKS using high-field (7 T) MRI and Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI). Methods: Five young healthy subjects and two patients were scanned both on 3 and 7 T MRI. The protocol was the same in all cases, and included: T1-weighted (T1w) and DWI at 3T; susceptibility weighted images (SWI) at 7T for the visualization of thalamic subparts. SWI was further integrated into the Gamma Plan Software® (LGP, Elekta Instruments, AB, Sweden) and co-registered with 3T images. A simulation of targeting of the Vim was done using the quadrilatere of Guyot. Furthermore, a correlation with the position of the found target on SWI and also on DWI (after clustering of the different thalamic nuclei) was performed. Results: For the 5 healthy subjects, there was a good correlation between the position of the Vim on SWI, DWI and the GKS targeting. For the patients, on the pretherapeutic acquisitions, SWI helped in positioning the target. For posttherapeutic sequences, SWI supposed position of the Vim matched the corresponding contrast enhancement seen at follow-up MRI. Additionally, on the patient's follow-up T1w images, we could observe a small area of contrast-enhancement corresponding to the target used in GKS (e.g., Vim), which belongs to the Ventral-Lateral-Ventral (VLV) nuclei group. Our clustering method resulted in seven thalamic groups. Conclusion: The use of SWI provided us with a superior resolution and an improved image contrast within the central gray matter, enabling us to directly visualize the Vim. We additionally propose a novel robust method for segmenting the thalamus in seven anatomical groups based on DWI. The localization of the GKS target on the follow-up T1w images, as well as the position of the Vim on 7 T, have been used as a gold standard for the validation of VLV cluster's emplacement. The contrast enhancement corresponding to the targeted area was always localized inside the expected cluster, providing strong evidence of the VLV segmentation accuracy. The anatomical correlation between the direct visualization on 7T and the current targeting methods on 3T (e.g., quadrilatere of Guyot, histological atlases, DWI) seems to show a very good anatomical matching.

Association between parental history and genetic risk scores for coronary heart disease prediction: The population-based CoLaus study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Parental history (PH) and genetic risk scores (GRSs) are separately associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), but evidence regarding their combined effects is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the joint associations and predictive ability of PH and GRSs for incident CHD. METHODS: Data for 4283 Caucasians were obtained from the population-based CoLaus Study, over median follow-up time of 5.6 years. CHD was defined as incident myocardial infarction, angina, percutaneous coronary revascularization or bypass grafting. Single nucleotide polymorphisms for CHD identified by genome-wide association studies were used to construct unweighted and weighted versions of three GRSs, comprising of 38, 53 and 153 SNPs respectively. RESULTS: PH was associated with higher values of all weighted GRSs. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, PH was significantly associated with CHD [HR 2.61, 95% CI (1.47-4.66)] and further adjustment for GRSs did not change this estimate. Similarly, one standard deviation change of the weighted 153-SNPs GRS was significantly associated with CHD [HR 1.50, 95% CI (1.26-1.80)] and remained so, after further adjustment for PH. The weighted, 153-SNPs GRS, but not PH, modestly improved discrimination [(C-index improvement, 0.016), p = 0.048] and reclassification [(NRI improvement, 8.6%), p = 0.027] beyond cardiovascular risk factors. After including both the GRS and PH, model performance improved further [(C-index improvement, 0.022), p = 0.006]. CONCLUSION: After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, PH and a weighted, polygenic GRS were jointly associated with CHD and provided additive information for coronary events prediction.

Application of intravoxel incoherent motion perfusion imaging to shoulder muscles after a lift-off test of varying duration.

Intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) MRI is a method to extract microvascular blood flow information out of diffusion-weighted images acquired at multiple b-values. We hypothesized that IVIM can identify the muscles selectively involved in a specific task, by measuring changes in activity-induced local muscular perfusion after exercise. We tested this hypothesis using a widely used clinical maneuver, the lift-off test, which is known to assess specifically the subscapularis muscle functional integrity. Twelve shoulders from six healthy male volunteers were imaged at 3 T, at rest, as well as after a lift-off test hold against resistance for 30 s, 1 and 2 min respectively, in three independent sessions. IVIM parameters, consisting of perfusion fraction (f), diffusion coefficient (D), pseudo-diffusion coefficient D* and blood flow-related fD*, were estimated within outlined muscles of the rotator cuff and the deltoid bundles. The mean values at rest and after the lift-off tests were compared in each muscle using a one-way ANOVA. A statistically significant increase in fD* was measured in the subscapularis, after a lift-off test of any duration, as well as in D. A fD* increase was the most marked (30 s, +103%; 1 min, +130%; 2 min, +156%) and was gradual with the duration of the test (in 10(-3) mm(2) /s: rest, 1.41 ± 0.50; 30 s, 2.86 ± 1.17; 1 min, 3.23 ± 1.22; 2 min, 3.60 ± 1.21). A significant increase in fD* and D was also visible in the posterior bundle of the deltoid. No significant change was consistently visible in the other investigated muscles of the rotator cuff and the other bundles of the deltoid. In conclusion, IVIM fD* allows the demonstration of a task-related microvascular perfusion increase after a specific task and suggests a direct relationship between microvascular perfusion and the duration of the effort. It is a promising method to investigate non-invasively skeletal muscle physiology and clinical perfusion-related muscular disorders.

Fat Suppression with Dixon Techniques in Musculoskeletal Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Pictorial Review.

Dixon techniques are part of the methods used to suppress the signal of fat in MRI. They present many advantages compared with other fat suppression techniques including (1) the robustness of fat signal suppression, (2) the possibility to combine these techniques with all types of sequences (gradient echo, spin echo) and different weightings (T1-, T2-, proton density-, intermediate-weighted sequences), and (3) the availability of images both with and without fat suppression from one single acquisition. These advantages have opened many applications in musculoskeletal imaging. We first review the technical aspects of Dixon techniques including their advantages and disadvantages. We then illustrate their applications for the imaging of different body parts, as well as for tumors, neuromuscular disorders, and the imaging of metallic hardware.

An affected core drives network integration deficits of the structural connectome in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

Chromosome 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is a genetic disease known to lead to cerebral structural alterations, which we study using the framework of the macroscopic white-matter connectome. We create weighted connectomes of 44 patients with 22q11DS and 44 healthy controls using diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging, and perform a weighted graph theoretical analysis. After confirming global network integration deficits in 22q11DS (previously identified using binary connectomes), we identify the spatial distribution of regions responsible for global deficits. Next, we further characterize the dysconnectivity of the deficient regions in terms of sub-network properties, and investigate their relevance with respect to clinical profiles. We define the subset of regions with decreased nodal integration (evaluated using the closeness centrality measure) as the affected core (A-core) of the 22q11DS structural connectome. A-core regions are broadly bilaterally symmetric and consist of numerous network hubs - chiefly parietal and frontal cortical, as well as subcortical regions. Using a simulated lesion approach, we demonstrate that these core regions and their connections are particularly important to efficient network communication. Moreover, these regions are generally densely connected, but less so in 22q11DS. These specific disturbances are associated to a rerouting of shortest network paths that circumvent the A-core in 22q11DS, "de-centralizing" the network. Finally, the efficiency and mean connectivity strength of an orbito-frontal/cingulate circuit, included in the affected regions, correlate negatively with the extent of negative symptoms in 22q11DS patients, revealing the clinical relevance of present findings. The identified A-core overlaps numerous regions previously identified as affected in 22q11DS as well as in schizophrenia, which approximately 30-40% of 22q11DS patients develop.

Characterisation of anatomical properties of the human basal ganglia using magnetic resonance imaging

The detailed in-vivo characterization of subcortical brain structures is essential not only to understand the basic organizational principles of the healthy brain but also for the study of the involvement of the basal ganglia in brain disorders. The particular tissue properties of basal ganglia - most importantly their high iron content, strongly affect the contrast of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images, hampering the accurate automated assessment of these regions. This technical challenge explains the substantial controversy in the literature about the magnitude, directionality and neurobiological interpretation of basal ganglia structural changes estimated from MRI and computational anatomy techniques. My scientific project addresses the pertinent need for accurate automated delineation of basal ganglia using two complementary strategies: ? Empirical testing of the utility of novel imaging protocols to provide superior contrast in the basal ganglia and to quantify brain tissue properties; ? Improvement of the algorithms for the reliable automated detection of basal ganglia and thalamus Previous research demonstrated that MRI protocols based on magnetization transfer (MT) saturation maps provide optimal grey-white matter contrast in subcortical structures compared with the widely used Tl-weighted (Tlw) images (Helms et al., 2009). Under the assumption of a direct impact of brain tissue properties on MR contrast my first study addressed the question of the mechanisms underlying the regional specificities effect of the basal ganglia. I used established whole-brain voxel-based methods to test for grey matter volume differences between MT and Tlw imaging protocols with an emphasis on subcortical structures. I applied a regression model to explain the observed grey matter differences from the regionally specific impact of brain tissue properties on the MR contrast. The results of my first project prompted further methodological developments to create adequate priors for the basal ganglia and thalamus allowing optimal automated delineation of these structures in a probabilistic tissue classification framework. I established a standardized workflow for manual labelling of the basal ganglia, thalamus and cerebellar dentate to create new tissue probability maps from quantitative MR maps featuring optimal grey-white matter contrast in subcortical areas. The validation step of the new tissue priors included a comparison of the classification performance with the existing probability maps. In my third project I continued investigating the factors impacting automated brain tissue classification that result in interpretational shortcomings when using Tlw MRI data in the framework of computational anatomy. While the intensity in Tlw images is predominantly

Whole-body MRI: comprehensive evaluation on a 48-channel 3T MRI system in less than 40 minutes. Preliminary results

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a comprehensive MRI protocol that investigates for cancer, vascular disease, and degenerative/inflammatory disease from the head to the pelvis in less than 40 minutes on a new generation 48-channel 3T system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All MR studies were performed on a 48-channel 3T MR scanner. A 20-channel head/neck coil, two 18-channel body arrays, and a 32-channel spine array were employed. A total of 4 healthy individuals were studied. The designed protocol included a combination of single-shot T2-weighted sequences, T1-weighted 3D gradient-echo pre- and post-gadolinium. All images were retrospectively evaluated by two radiologists independently for overall image quality. RESULTS: The image quality for cancer was rated as excellent in the liver, pancreas, kidneys, lungs, pelvic organs, and brain, and rated as fair in the colon and breast. For vascular diseases ratings were excellent in the aorta, major branch vessel origins, inferior vena cava, portal and hepatic veins, rated as good in pulmonary arteries, and as poor in the coronary arteries. For degenerative/inflammatory diseases ratings were excellent in the brain, liver and pancreas. The inter-observer agreement was excellent. CONCLUSION: A comprehensive and time efficient screening for important categories of disease processes may be achieved with high quality imaging in a new generation 48-channel 3T system.