Manipulating sex ratio to increase population growth: the example of the Lesser Kestrel

Small or decreasing populations call for emergency actions like, for example, captive breeding programs. Such programs aim at rapidly increasing population sizes in order to reduce the loss of genetic variability and to avoid possible Allee effects. The Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni is one of the species that is currently supported in several captive breeding programs at various locations. Here, we model the demographic and genetic consequences of potential management strategies that are based on offspring sex ratio manipulation. Increased population growth could be achieved by manipulating female conditions and/or male attractiveness in the captive breeders and consequently shifting the offspring sex ratio towards more female offspring, which are then used for reintroduction. Fragmenting populations into wild-breeding and captive-breeding demes and manipulating population sex ratio both immediately increase the inbreeding coefficient in the next generation (i.e. decrease N-e) but may, in the long term, reduce the loss of genetic variability if population growth is restricted by the number of females. We use the Lesser Kestrel and the wealth of information that is available on this species to predict the long-term consequences of various kinds of sex-ratio manipulation. We find that, in our example and possibly in many other cases, a sex-ratio manipulation that seems realistic could have a beneficial effect on the captive breeding program. However, the possible long-term costs and benefits of such measures need to be carefully optimized.

Evidence for an overestimated vulnerability of adolescent rats to develop signs of drug addiction

Drug addiction is a multi-etiological disorder to which some individuals are more vulnerable an others. Whereas converging clinical and epidemiological studies report a peak of drug use ring adolescence, many behavioral traits characterizing teenagers have been proposed to contribute to this vulnerability, including a heightened sensation-seeking, an enhanced impulsivity d a larger influence exerted by peers. By many aspects, juvenile rodents display behavioral traits at resemble those of teenagers. However, the concept of increased vulnerability to drug addiction juvenile rats remains in debate. Indeed, only a few studies directly compared juvenile and adult fdents regarding behavioral predictors of drug abuse. Moreover, some key features of drug diction have never been investigated in juvenile rats yet. For this very reason, we conducted a arge-scale behavioral comparison of adult and adolescent rats with the aim of dissecting their espective behavioral traits and vulnerabilities to drug addiction. We first have shown that juvenile rats exhibited an enhanced motor impulsivity, and a loss of control over reward seeking assessed by a persistent reward taking despite adverse consequences mild electric footshocks]. We also report that juvenile rats displayed a higher anxiety profile, ind we discuss why these behaviors might represent key underpinning mechanisms leading to an enhanced vulnerability to drug abuse. Meanwhile, we collected clear cut observations that do not support such an interpretation. In Articular, juvenile and adult rats displayed identical novelty-induced habituation and preference at are considered to represent two potent predictors of cocaine initiation and compulsive intake, "pre strikingly, juvenile rats were less attracted by cues predicting reward in a Pavlovian utoshaping task, suggesting a lower propensity for cues or context to trigger the reinstatement of a^previously extinguished reward seeking behavior. Finally, using a paradigm assessing schedule- ciuced polydipsia, juvenile and adult rats exhibited similar compulsive drinking, under control conditions and following a chronic cocaine treatment as well. Hence, these observations call for a cautious interpretation of adolescent vulnerability to drug use. In particular, we underlined that even the most compulsive young rats did not consume ärger amounts of cocaine than adults, nor exhibited larger efforts in a cue-induced relapse aradigm, despite a transient increased motivation for lever-pressing. And further, despite a higher ensitivity to the behavioral effects of cocaine, juvenile rats did not differ from adults in their ropensity to constantly prefer saccharin over cocaine in a discrete-choice procedure, even after a ?'Id chronic stress procedure. Altogether, our results shape an objective overview of the juvenile rats' behavior in relation to oth drug and non-drug rewards, suggesting a heterogeneous and task-specific profile. Despite elements potentially underlying a real risk for substance use, adolescent rats do not exhibit a ehavioral repertoire suggesting increased vulnerability for compulsive drug abuse. Our conclusions strongly encourage deeper neurobiological investigations of the developing brain, and also open a debate on a possible overestimation of juvenile rats' and teenager's risk to develop aladaptive behaviors and drug addiction. - L'addiction aux drogues est une pathologie d'origine multifactorielle, à laquelle certains individus sont plus vulnérables que d'autres. De nombreuses études cliniques et épidémiologiques suggèrent une consommation excessive de drogues pendant l'adolescence, et plusieurs explications ont été avancées pour justifier cette tendance, parmi lesquelles on note une augmentation de la recherche de sensation, une impulsivité plus marquée et une plus forte influence de l'entourage. Le rat juvénile présente de nombreuses caractéristiques développementales similaires à l'adolescence humaine. En revanche, la vulnérabilité des rats juvéniles à l'abus de drogue est encore sujette à caution. En effet, peu d'études ont directement comparé des traits de comportements pouvant refléter un accroissement du risque d'abus chez les rats juvéniles par comparaison aux rats adultes. En outre, certaines caractéristiques fondamentales de l'addiction chez l'homme n'ont pas encore été étudiées chez le rat adolescent. Ce travail de thèse s'est donc donné pour objectif de comparer le comportement de rats adultes vis-à-vis de celui de rats adolescents, afin d'évaluer dans quelle mesure ces derniers seraient plus vulnérables à l'abus de drogues. Nos résultats indiquent que les rats juvéniles présentent une augmentation des comportements impulsifs, ainsi qu'une plus grande persistance à rechercher de manière compulsive une récompense en dépit de légers chocs électriques. Les rats juvéniles présentent également un profil anxieux plus élevé, ce qui peut constituer une autre source de vulnérabilité. Cependant, certaines caractéristiques comportementales ne suggèrent pas de vulnérabilité chez les rats juvéniles. Aucune différence entre rats adultes et adolescents n'a été trouvée pour l'habituation et la préférence pour la nouveauté, deux traits prédisant l'initiation et la prise compulsive de drogue. De plus, nous avons montré que les rats adolescents attribuent moins d'intérêt à des stimuli prédisant la disponibilité d'une récompense, suggérant une vulnérabilité plus faible à la rechute induite par les stimuli associés à la prise de drogue. Une étude complémentaire des comportements compulsifs indique une absence de différence entre rats adultes et adolescents, à la fois en condition basale ou après un traitement chronique à la cocaïne. L'étude des comportements de prise de drogue ne va pas non plus dans le sens d'une vulnérabilité des rats adolescents. Bien que les rats compulsifs sélectionnés pendant la période juvénile présentent une plus grande motivation à prendre de la cocaïne, ils ne diffèrent ni dans la quantité de cocaïne consommée, ni dans la rechute induite par les stimuli environnementaux. En dépit d'une sensibilisation comportementale plus importante, les rats adolescents présentent la même préférence que les adultes face à un choix entre une drogue et une récompense alternative, suggérant une résilience à la cocaïne comparable à celle des adultes. Enfin, cette résilience pour la cocaïne n'est pas affectée par un stress chronique lors de l'adolescence. En résumé, cette étude dresse un regard objectif sur les comportements en lien avec une vulnérabilité à l'abus de drogues chez le rat juvénile, suggérant que celle-ci est hétérogène et spécifique au protocole utilisé. En dépit de certains éléments de vulnérabilité, les rats adolescents ne présentent pas d'attirance excessive pour la cocaïne, ni de prédisposition à la consommation compulsive de cette drogue. L'ensemble de ces éléments pourra constituer une base solide pour l'investigation neurobiologique du cerveau en développement, et ouvre un débat sur une possible surestimation de la vulnérabilité des rats juvéniles et de leurs homologues humains aux pathologies psychiatriques telles que l'addiction aux drogues.

Personalized care in neuro-oncology coming of age: why we need MGMT and 1p/19q testing for malignant glioma patients in clinical practice.

Histological subtyping and grading by malignancy are the cornerstones of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification of tumors of the central nervous system. They shall provide clinicians with guidance as to the course of disease to be expected and the choices of treatment to be made. Nonetheless, patients with histologically identical tumors may have very different outcomes, notably in patients with astrocytic and oligodendroglial gliomas of WHO grades II and III. In gliomas of adulthood, 3 molecular markers have undergone extensive studies in recent years: 1p/19q chromosomal codeletion, O(6)-methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation, and mutations of isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) 1 and 2. However, the assessment of these molecular markers has so far not been implemented in clinical routine because of the lack of therapeutic implications. In fact, these markers were considered to be prognostic irrespective of whether patients were receiving radiotherapy (RT), chemotherapy, or both (1p/19q, IDH1/2), or of limited value because testing is too complex and no chemotherapy alternative to temozolomide was available (MGMT). In 2012, this situation has changed: long-term follow-up of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 9402 and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer 26951 trials demonstrated an overall survival benefit from the addition to RT of chemotherapy with procarbazine/CCNU/vincristine confined to patients with anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors with (vs without) 1p/19q codeletion. Furthermore, in elderly glioblastoma patients, the NOA-08 and the Nordic trial of RT alone versus temozolomide alone demonstrated a profound impact of MGMT promoter methylation on outcome by therapy and thus established MGMT as a predictive biomarker in this patient population. These recent results call for the routine implementation of 1p/19q and MGMT testing at least in subpopulations of malignant glioma patients and represent an encouraging step toward the development of personalized therapeutic approaches in neuro-oncology.

Aprenentatge per a la comprensió en entorns virtuals als centres de secundària: La Xarxa School plus

[cat] Aquest projecte és una continuació del programa de recerca iniciat amb el projecte de R+D "School+ more than a platform to build the school of tomorrow" (IST-2000-25162) parcialment finançat per la Unió Europea a través de la convocatòria L'Escola del Demà, del Programa de Tecnologies de la Societat de la Informació del 5è Programa Marc. Aquesta iniciativa va ser seguida i aprofundida amb el projecte "Aprenentatge per a la comprensió en entorns virtuals als centres de secundària: la Xarxa School+", parcialment finançat pel DURSI a través de la convocatòria ARIE 2004. En aquest sentit, s'inscriu sota el mateix paraigües epistemològic (sociocultural) i metodològic (construccionista) dels projectes anteriors, i es basa en la utilització de diferents tipus d'evidències,en aquest cas però prestant especial atenció a la qüestió de l'avaluació de l'aprenentatge per a la comprensió i la dotació de sentit. En aquest context adquireix especial rellevància la idea del portafoli -o e-portafoli, webfoli, portafoli electrònic o digital- com a estratègia avaluadora de la comprensió i afavoridora de formes més complexes d'aprenentatge. En aquest informe, i d¿acord amb allò manifestat al projecte de recerca, es donen respostes a les següents qüestions: (a) quines són les possibilitats i les limitacions del portafoli electrònic com a sistema per avaluar processos d'aprenentatge de caràcter complex, orientats a la comprensió i la dotació de sentit; (b) com tenen lloc els processos d'innovació i millora a l'ensenyament secundari quan es fan servir entorns virtuals d'informació i comunicació, i es persegueix el desenvolupament d'un model pedagògic i curricular de caràcter interdisciplinari;(c) quins processos pedagògics, organitzatius, cognitius i emocionals estan implicats en les situacions d'aprenentatge orientades a la comprensió i la dotació de sentit, i no en la memorització i repetició de continguts; (d) com es desenvolupen experiències de col·laboració entre professors, estudiants i centres de secundària.

Dones a la ciència i a la universitat: la construcció de la identitat docent i investigadora en contextos de desigualtat

[cat] Aquest treball recull el procés i els resultats de la recerca "Dones a la Ciència i a la Universitat: la contribució de la identitat docent i investigadora en contextos de desigualtat" (2007 RDG 00001)finançada per l'Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR) en la convocatòria d'ajuts per a l'estudi de desigualtats originades per motius de gènere en l'àmbit científic i universitari (RDG) per l'any 2007. La finalitat d'aquest projecte ha estat explorar i reconstruirl'experiència personal i professional de tres generacions de dones en el procés de construcció de la seva identitat com a docents, investigadores i gestores. La forma d'assolir aquesta finalitat ha estatl'elaboració de 8 històries de vida professional per tal de comprendre la relació entre les seves trajectòries i les condicions de la seva feina i esbrinar com es van convertir en la mena de donesprofessores, investigadores o gestores que ara són; així com les relacions entre les experiències personals i el desenvolupament de les seves trajectòries professionals. En aquest procés s'han posat en evidència les estratègies d'adaptació, resistència i creació que les dones desenvolupen enla seva interacció amb el context de la docència, la recerca i la gestió, les formes de violència simbòlica que experimenten, i els canvis que s'han produït al centres de recerca i les universitats catalanes des de la perspectiva de gènere en els darrers trenta anys.

Aprenentatge per a la comprensió en entorns virtuals als centres de secundària: La Xarxa School plus

[cat] Aquest projecte és una continuació del programa de recerca iniciat amb el projecte de R+D "School+ more than a platform to build the school of tomorrow" (IST-2000-25162) parcialment finançat per la Unió Europea a través de la convocatòria L'Escola del Demà, del Programa de Tecnologies de la Societat de la Informació del 5è Programa Marc. Aquesta iniciativa va ser seguida i aprofundida amb el projecte "Aprenentatge per a la comprensió en entorns virtuals als centres de secundària: la Xarxa School+", parcialment finançat pel DURSI a través de la convocatòria ARIE 2004. En aquest sentit, s'inscriu sota el mateix paraigües epistemològic (sociocultural) i metodològic (construccionista) dels projectes anteriors, i es basa en la utilització de diferents tipus d'evidències,en aquest cas però prestant especial atenció a la qüestió de l'avaluació de l'aprenentatge per a la comprensió i la dotació de sentit. En aquest context adquireix especial rellevància la idea del portafoli -o e-portafoli, webfoli, portafoli electrònic o digital- com a estratègia avaluadora de la comprensió i afavoridora de formes més complexes d'aprenentatge. En aquest informe, i d¿acord amb allò manifestat al projecte de recerca, es donen respostes a les següents qüestions: (a) quines són les possibilitats i les limitacions del portafoli electrònic com a sistema per avaluar processos d'aprenentatge de caràcter complex, orientats a la comprensió i la dotació de sentit; (b) com tenen lloc els processos d'innovació i millora a l'ensenyament secundari quan es fan servir entorns virtuals d'informació i comunicació, i es persegueix el desenvolupament d'un model pedagògic i curricular de caràcter interdisciplinari;(c) quins processos pedagògics, organitzatius, cognitius i emocionals estan implicats en les situacions d'aprenentatge orientades a la comprensió i la dotació de sentit, i no en la memorització i repetició de continguts; (d) com es desenvolupen experiències de col·laboració entre professors, estudiants i centres de secundària.

Proportion of out-of-hospital adult non-traumatic cardiac or respiratory arrest among calls for seizure.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the proportion of adult non-traumatic cardiac or respiratory arrest among calls for seizure to an emergency medical dispatch centre and to record whether known epileptic patients present cardiac or respiratory arrest together with seizure. METHODS: This 2-year prospective observational investigation involved the collection of tape recordings of all incoming calls to the emergency medical dispatch centre, in which an out-of-hospital non-traumatic seizure was the chief complaint in patients >18 years, in addition to the paramedics' records of all patients who presented with respiratory or cardiac arrest. The authors also recorded whether the bystander spontaneously mentioned to the dispatcher that the victim was known to have epilepsy. RESULTS: During the 24-month period, the call centre received 561 incoming calls for an out-of-hospital non-traumatic seizure in an adult. Twelve cases were classified as cardiac or respiratory arrest by paramedics. In one case, the caller spontaneously mentioned that the victim had a history of epilepsy. The proportion of cardiac or respiratory arrest among calls for seizure was 2.1%. CONCLUSION: Although these cases are rare, dispatchers should closely monitor seizure patients with the help of bystanders to exclude an out-of-hospital cardiac or respiratory arrest, in which case the dispatcher can offer telephone cardiopulmonary resuscitation advice until the paramedics arrive. Whenever the activity of the centre allows it and no new incoming call is on hold, this can be achieved by staying on the line with the caller or by calling back. A history of epilepsy should not modify the type of monitoring performed by the dispatcher as those patients may also have an arrest together with seizure.

Helicopter rescue operations involving winching of an emergency physician.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to study the epidemiologic and medical aspects of alpine helicopter rescue operations involving the winching of an emergency physician to the victim. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical and operational reports of a single helicopter-based emergency medical service. Data from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008 were analysed. RESULTS: A total of 921 patients were identified, with a male:female ratio of 2:1. There were 56 (6%) patients aged 15 or under. The median time from emergency call to helicopter take-off was 7 min (IQR = 5-10 min). 840 (91%) patients suffered from trauma-related injuries, with falls from heights during sports activities the most frequent event. The most common injuries involved the legs (246 or 27%), head (175 or 19%), upper limbs (117 or 13%), spine (108 or 12%), and femur (66 or 7%). Only 81 (9%) victims suffered from a medical emergency, but these cases were, when compared to the trauma victims, significantly more severe according to the NACA index (p<0.001). Overall, 246 (27%) patients had a severe injury or illness, namely, a potential or overt vital threat (NACA score between 4 and 6). A total of 478 (52%) patients required administration of major analgesics: fentanyl (443 patients or 48%), ketamine (42 patients or 5%) or morphine (7 patients or 1%). The mean dose of fentanyl was 188 micrograms (range 25-750, SD 127). Major medical interventions such as administration of vasoactive drugs, intravenous perfusions of more than 1000 ml of fluids, ventilation or intubation were performed on 39 (4%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: The severity of the patients' injuries or illnesses along with the high proportion of medical procedures performed directly on-site validates emergency physician winching for advanced life support procedures and analgesia.

Being Female: a handicap for researchers in the competion for NCCR.

The Swiss National Science Foundation made a call for National Centers fo Competence in Research (NCCR) for the first time in 1999 and 2004. Together, these announcements concerned all disciplines and led to 126 preproposals, which were put forward by 2134 men and women researchers. It can be assumed that this operation mobilised Swiss researchers who regarded themselves as particularly well qualified to conduct high-level research in their field. The article uses network analysis and regression analysis methods to examine to what extend women had a lower success rate than men in the two selection rounds because of their sex. On the whole, the findings attest the gender neutrality of the National Science Foundation's selection procedures. However, they also confirm the well-known fact that women scientists are less represented in the higher echelons of academia and concentrated in the social sciences and humanities, as well as showing that this concentration reduces women's chances of success in scientific competition. The article shows that unequal gender-specific success rates prior to the NCCR funding contest play a fairly significant role.

Nutrition & Wellness Programs for Older Iowans, June 20, 2012

Older Iowans are independent and want to stay that way – even in tough times. Good health is important to staying independent. Food Assistance can help you buy the groceries you need to stay healthy. Everyone deserves a nutritious meal. Food Assistance can help you buy foods that taste good and are good for you! Stay well for yourself and for your family. Call 2-1-1 and get connected to the Food Assistance office that serves your community. They can help you apply for an EBT card. The people who work in the Food Assistance Program really do care about your family’s health. Food Assistance is not a hand out . . . it’s a helping hand.

Complexitat i fenomen (socio)linguístic

Intermediate phenomena of reality present particular characteristics of systemic self-organization, multilevel interrelations, recursivity, emergence of new «objects» with properties different from those of the elements that form them, and evolutionary dynamics, that probably need the formulation of new theoretical concepts and different paradigm principles. The sciences or perspectives of complexity, or the «complex» thinking, try to respond adequately to this complexity of reality. This approach adopts a multidimensional, integrated and dynamic view of reality: the world is made up of overlapping levels of different elements which produce new properties or new organizations at higher levels. If we conceive what we call languages as simple and decontextualized objects, we can understand some of the more mechanical aspects but we will ignore their conditions of existence, functionality, maintenance, variation, change and extinction.

Sensitivity to Change of the Ultrasound synovitis SONAR Score in RA Patients: Results of the Scqm Cohort

Background/Purpose: Since the end of 2009, an ultrasound scoring call SONAR has been implemented for RA patients as a routine tool in the SCQM registry (Swiss Clinical Quality Management registry for rheumatic diseases). A cross-sectional evaluation of patients with active disease and clinical remission according to the DAS28ESR and the novel ACR/EULAR remission criteria from 2010 clearly indicated a good correlational external validity of synovial pathologies with clinical disease activity in RA (2012 EULAR meeting. Objective: of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity to change of B-mode and Power-Doppler scores in a longitudinal perspective along with the changes in DAS28ESR in two consecutive visits among the patients included in the SCQM registry Methods: All patients who had at least two SONAR scores and simultaneous DAS28ESR evaluations between December 2009 and June 2012 were included in this study. The data came from 20 different operators working mostly in hospitals but also in private practices, who had received a previous teaching over 3 days in a reference center. The SONAR score includes a semi-quantitative B mode and Power-Doppler evaluation of 22 joints from 0 to 3, maximum 66 points for each score. The selection of these 22 joints was done in analogy to a 28 joint count and further restricted to joint regions with published standard ultrasound images. Both elbows and wrist joints were dynamically scanned from the dorsal and the knee joints from a longitudinal suprapatellar view in flexion and in joint extension. The bilateral evaluation of the second to fifth metacarpophalangeal and proximal interphalangeal joints was done from a palmar view in full extension, and the Power-Doppler scoring from a dorsal view with hand and finger position in best relaxation. Results: From the 657 RA patients with at least one score performed, 128 RA patients with 2 or more consultations of DAS28ESR, and a complete SONAR data set could be included. The mean (SD) time between the two evaluations was 9.6 months (54). The mean (SD) DAS28ESR was: 3.5 (1.3) at the first visit and was significantly lower (mean 3.0, SD.2.0, p:_0.0001) at the second visit. The mean (SD) of the total B mode was 12 (9.5) at baseline and 9.6 (7.6) at follow-up (p_0.0004). The Power-Doppler score at entry was 2.9 (5.7) and 1.9 (3.6), at the second visit, p _0.0001. The Pearson r correlation between change in DAS28ESR and the B mode was 0.44 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.57, p_ 0.0001),and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.50, p _ 0.0002) for the Power-Doppler score,. Clinical relevant change in DAS (_1.1) was associated with a change of total B mode score _3 in 23/32 patients and a change a Doppler score _0.5 in 19/26. Conclusion: This study confirms that the SONAR score is sensitive to change and provides a complementary method of assessing RA disease activity to the DAS that could be very useful in daily practice.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

El consum de drogues i cocaïna dels joves de l’IES Miquel Martí i Pol de Roda de Ter

En l’actualitat, l’ús i el consum de substàncies il·legals pels joves de l’IES Miquel Martí i Pol de Roda de Ter és un fenomen associat a l’oci, per tant es tracta d’un consum recreatiu per fer referència al consum que fan els joves que el que busquen és diversió i plaer, moltes vegades, sense percebre’n el risc. Pel que fa a les drogues legals, alcohol i tabac són les substàncies psicoactives de major consum. La cocaïna és pels joves la segona substància consumida, rere el cànnabis, que és la més estesa entre la població adolescent i joves de l’IES. Es pot dir que existeixen una sèrie de situacions de caràcter personal i social que poden predisposar certes persones a consumir drogues. Aquestes circumstàncies són els anomenats factors de risc, com són l’autoestima, absència de normes i límits, manca d’informació, manca de comunicació, entre d’altres. També hi ha d’altres situacions socioculturals i característiques individuals que fan que se’n redueixi la possibilitat de consum, aquests serien els anomenats factors de protecció com són l’economia, tenir aficions, disposar d’adults de referència, etc. Conèixer i comprendre aquests factors és fonamental per poder realitzar un abordatge educatiu i preventiu basat en la reducció de riscos i en la responsabilitat i l’autonomia de les persones usuàries de drogues.