862 resultados para Value at Risk (VaR)


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Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of screening, isolation and decolonisation strategies in the control of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in intensive care units (ICUs). Design: Economic evaluation. Setting: England and Wales. Population: ICU patients. Main outcome measures: Infections, deaths, costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for alternative strategies, net monetary benefits (NMBs). Results: All strategies using isolation but not decolonisation improved health outcomes but increased costs. When MRSA prevalence on admission to the ICU was 5% and the willingness to pay per QALY gained was between £20,000 and £30,000, the best such strategy was to isolate only those patients at high risk of carrying MRSA (either pre-emptively or following identification by admission and weekly MRSA screening using chromogenic agar). Universal admission and weekly screening using polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based MRSA detection coupled with isolation was unlikely to be cost-effective unless prevalence was high (10% colonised with MRSA on admission to the ICU). All decolonisation strategies improved health outcomes and reduced costs. While universal decolonisation (regardless of MRSA status) was the most cost-effective in the short-term, strategies using screening to target MRSA carriers may be preferred due to reduced risk of selecting for resistance. Amongst such targeted strategies, universal admission and weekly PCR screening coupled with decolonisation with nasal mupirocin was the most cost-effective. This finding was robust to ICU size, MRSA admission prevalence, the proportion of patients classified as high-risk, and the precise value of willingness to pay for health benefits. Conclusions: MRSA control strategies that use decolonisation are likely to be cost-saving in an ICU setting provided resistance is lacking, and combining universal PCR-based screening with decolonisation is likely to represent good value for money if untargeted decolonisation is considered unacceptable. In ICUs where decolonisation is not implemented there is insufficient evidence to support universal MRSA screening outside high prevalence settings.

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This paper describes the development and evaluation of a new instrument - the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist (CSRAC). The instrument assesses the clinician's competency in three areas: clinical interviewing, assessment of specific suicide risk factors, and formulating a management plan. A draft checklist was constructed by integrating information from 1) literature review 2) expert clinician focus group and 3) consultation with experts. It was utilised in a simulated clinical scenario with clinician trainees and a trained actor in order to test for inter-rater agreement. Agreement was calculated and the checklist was re-drafted with the aim of maximising agreement. A second phase of simulated clinical scenarios was then conducted and inter-rater agreement was calculated for the revised checklist. In the first phase of the study, 18 of 35 items had inadequate inter-rater agreement (60%>), while in the second phase, using the revised version, only 3 of 39 items failed to achieve adequate inter-rater agreement. Further evidence of reliability and validity are required. Continued development of the CSRAC will be necessary before it can be utilised to assess the effectiveness of risk assessment training programs.

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A current Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) funded action research project aims to provide a set of practical resources founded on a social justice framework, to guide good practice for monitoring student learning engagement (MSLE) in higher education. The project involves ten Australasian institutions, eight of which are engaged in various MSLE type projects. A draft framework, consisting of six social justice principles which emerged from the literature has been examined with reference to the eight institutional approaches for MSLE in conjunction with the personnel working on these initiatives during the first action research cycle. The cycle will examine the strategic and operational implications of the framework in each of the participating institutions. Cycle 2 will also build capacity to embed the principles within the institutional MSLE program and will identify and collect examples and resources that exemplify the principles in practice. The final cycle will seek to pilot the framework to guide new MSLE initiatives. In its entirety, the project will deliver significant resources to the sector in the form of a social justice framework for MSLE, guidelines and sector exemplars for MSLE. As well as increasing the awareness amongst staff around the criticality of transition to university (thereby preventing attrition) and the significance of the learning and teaching agenda in enhancing student engagement, the project will build leadership capacity within the participating institutions and provide a knowledge base and institutional capacity for the Australasian HE sector to deploy the deliverables that will safeguard student learning engagement At this early stage of the project the workshop session provides an opportunity to discuss and examine the draft set of social justice principles and to discuss their potential value for the participants’ institutional contexts. Specifically, the workshop will explore critical questions associated with the principles.

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The concept of student engagement is a key factor in student achievement and retention and Australasian universities have a range of initiatives aimed at monitoring and intervening with students who are at risk of disengaging. Given the aspirations about widening participation, it is absolutely critical that these initiatives are designed to enable success for all students, particularly those for whom social and cultural disadvantage have been a barrier. Consequently, these types of initiatives must be consistent with the concept of social justice and a set of principles would provide this philosophical foundation for the sector. An Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) project that involves ten Australasian universities, is designing of a suite of resources for the sector which will include: (1) a set of principles for good practice in MSLE, (2) a good practice guide for the design and implementation of institutional MSLE policy and practice, and (3) a collection of resources for and exemplars of good practice to be taken up by the sector. This workshop session will provide an opportunity for participants to examine the draft set of principles and to discuss their potential value for the participants’ institutional contexts. Australian Learning and Teaching Council Competitive Grant CG10-1730 2010-2012: Good practice for safeguarding student learning engagement in higher education institutions.

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Background We investigated the geographical variation of water supply and sanitation indicators (WS&S) and their role to the risk of schistosomiasis and hookworm infection in school age children in West Africa. The aim was to predict large-scale geographical variation in WS&S, quantify the attributable risk of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infections due to WS&S and identify communities where sustainable transmission control could be targeted across the region. Methods National cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys were conducted in 24,542 households in Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali, in 2003–2006. We generated spatially-explicit predictions of areas without piped water, toilet facilities and finished floors in West Africa, adjusting for household covariates. Using recently published helminth prevalence data we developed Bayesian geostatistical models (MGB) of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infection in West Africa including environmental and the mapped outputs for WS&S. Using these models we estimated the effect of WS&S on parasite risk, quantified their attributable fraction of infection, and mapped the risk of infection in West Africa. Findings Our maps show that most areas in West Africa are very poorly served by water supply except in major urban centers. There is a better geographical coverage for toilet availability and improved household flooring. We estimated smaller attributable risks for water supply in S. mansoni (47%) compared to S. haematobium (71%), and 5% of hookworm cases could be averted by improving sanitation. Greater levels of inadequate sanitation increased the risk of schistosomiasis, and increased levels of unsafe water supply increased the risk of hookworm. The role of floor type for S. haematobium infection (21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (86%). S. haematobium and hookworm maps accounting for WS&S show small clusters of maximal prevalence areas in areas bordering Burkina Faso and Mali smaller. The map of S. mansoni shows that this parasite is much more wide spread across the north of the Niger River basin than previously predicted. Interpretation Our maps identify areas where the Millennium Development Goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. Our results show that WS&S are important contributors to the burden of major helminth infections of children in West Africa. Including information about WS&S as well as the “traditional” environmental risk factors in spatial models of helminth risk yielded a substantial gain both in model fit and at explaining the proportion of spatial variance in helminth risk. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WS&S allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where integrative preventive chemotherapy and engineering interventions will yield the greatest public health benefits.

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Taxes are an important component of investing that is commonly overlooked in both the literature and in practice. For example, many understand that taxes will reduce an investment’s return, but less understood is the risk-sharing nature of taxes that also reduces the investment’s risk. This thesis examines how taxes affect the optimal asset allocation and asset location decision in an Australian environment. It advances the model of Horan & Al Zaman (2008), improving the method by which the present value of tax liabilities are calculated, by using an after-tax risk-free discount rate, and incorporating any new or reduced tax liabilities generated into its expected risk and return estimates. The asset allocation problem is examined for a range of different scenarios using Australian parameters, including different risk aversion levels, personal marginal tax rates, investment horizons, borrowing premiums, high or low inflation environments, and different starting cost bases. The findings support the Horan & Al Zaman (2008) conclusion that equities should be held in the taxable account. In fact, these findings are strengthened with most of the efficient frontier maximising equity holdings in the taxable account instead of only half. Furthermore, these findings transfer to the Australian case, where it is found that taxed Australian investors should always invest into equities first through the taxable account before investing in super. However, untaxed Australian investors should invest their equity first through superannuation. With borrowings allowed in the taxable account (no borrowing premium), Australian taxed investors should hold 100% of the superannuation account in the risk-free asset, while undertaking leverage in the taxable account to achieve the desired risk-return. Introducing a borrowing premium decreases the likelihood of holding 100% of super in the risk-free asset for taxable investors. The findings also suggest that the higher the marginal tax rate, the higher the borrowing premium in order to overcome this effect. Finally, as the investor’s marginal tax rate increases, the overall allocation to equities should increase due to the increased risk and return sharing caused by taxation, and in order to achieve the same risk/return level as the lower taxation level, the investor must take on more equity exposure. The investment horizon has a minimal impact on the optimal allocation decision in the absence of factors such as mean reversion and human capital.

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This paper describes a lead project currently underway through Australia’s Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre evaluating diffusion mechanisms and impacts of R&D investment in the Australian built environment. Through a retrospective analysis of R&D investment trends and industry outcomes, and a prospective assessment of industry futures using strategic foresighting, a future-focussed industry R&D roadmap and pursuant policy guidelines will be developed. This research aims to build new understandings and knowledge relevant to R&D funding strategies, research team formation and management, dissemination of outcomes and industry uptake. Each of these issues are critical due to: the disaggregated nature of the built environment industry; intense competition; limited R&D investment; and new challenges (e.g. IT, increased environmental expectations). This paper details the context within which this project is being undertaken and the research design. Findings of the retrospective analysis of past R&D investment in Australia will be presented at this conference.