Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Sentencing and public confidence in Australia: The dynamics and foci of small group deliberations

This study is the first of its kind in Australia to use the deliberative small group methodology to explore participants’ deeper, nuanced thoughts on specific criminal justice issues in order to gain insight into the underlying beliefs that influence people’s opinions on sentencing. The use of small group discussions allows an analysis of the dynamics of people’s interactions and the potential of these to elicit deeper, more thoughtful deliberation. Participants’ comments around two policy areas – mandatory sentencing and the use of alternatives to imprisonment – were founded on concerns about the need for judges to tailor the sentence to fit the specific circumstances of each case. The methodology itself has shown that people may change their initial opinions on complex issues when given the opportunity to discuss and reflect on their beliefs.

Time, space, and text in the elementary school digital writing classroom

Theorists of multiliteracies, social semiotics, and the New Literacy Studies have drawn attention to the potential changing nature of writing and literacy in the context of networked communications. This article reports findings from a design-based research project in Year 4 classrooms (students aged 8.5-10 years) in a low socioeconomic status school. A new writing program taught students how to design multimodal and digital texts across a range of genres and text types, such as web pages, online comics, video documentaries, and blogs. The authors use Bernstein’s theory of the pedagogic device to theorize the pedagogic struggles and resolutions in remaking English through the specialization of time, space, and text. The changes created an ideological struggle as new writing practices were adapted from broader societal fields to meet the instructional and regulative discourses of a conventional writing curriculum.

Vision-based simultaneous localization and mapping in changing outdoor environments

For robots operating in outdoor environments, a number of factors, including weather, time of day, rough terrain, high speeds, and hardware limitations, make performing vision-based simultaneous localization and mapping with current techniques infeasible due to factors such as image blur and/or underexposure, especially on smaller platforms and low-cost hardware. In this paper, we present novel visual place-recognition and odometry techniques that address the challenges posed by low lighting, perceptual change, and low-cost cameras. Our primary contribution is a novel two-step algorithm that combines fast low-resolution whole image matching with a higher-resolution patch-verification step, as well as image saliency methods that simultaneously improve performance and decrease computing time. The algorithms are demonstrated using consumer cameras mounted on a small vehicle in a mixed urban and vegetated environment and a car traversing highway and suburban streets, at different times of day and night and in various weather conditions. The algorithms achieve reliable mapping over the course of a day, both when incrementally incorporating new visual scenes from different times of day into an existing map, and when using a static map comprising visual scenes captured at only one point in time. Using the two-step place-recognition process, we demonstrate for the first time single-image, error-free place recognition at recall rates above 50% across a day-night dataset without prior training or utilization of image sequences. This place-recognition performance enables topologically correct mapping across day-night cycles.

A multicenter study on chronic cough in children : burden and etiologies based on a standardized management pathway

Background While the burden of chronic cough in children has been documented, etiologic factors across multiple settings and age have not been described. In children with chronic cough, we aimed (1) to evaluate the burden and etiologies using a standard management pathway in various settings, and (2) to determine the influence of age and setting on disease burden and etiologies and etiology on disease burden. We hypothesized that the etiology, but not the burden, of chronic cough in children is dependent on the clinical setting and age. Methods From five major hospitals and three rural-remote clinics, 346 children (mean age 4.5 years) newly referred with chronic cough (> 4 weeks) were prospectively managed in accordance with an evidence-based cough algorithm. We used a priori definitions, timeframes, and validated outcome measures (parent-proxy cough-specific quality of life [PC-QOL], a generic QOL [pediatric quality of life (PedsQL)], and cough diary). Results The burden of chronic cough (PC-QOL, cough duration) significantly differed between settings (P = .014, 0.021, respectively), but was not influenced by age or etiology. PC-QOL and PedsQL did not correlate with age. The frequency of etiologies was significantly different in dissimilar settings (P = .0001); 17.6% of children had a serious underlying diagnosis (bronchiectasis, aspiration, cystic fibrosis). Except for protracted bacterial bronchitis, the frequency of other common diagnoses (asthma, bronchiectasis, resolved without specific-diagnosis) was similar across age categories. Conclusions The high burden of cough is independent of children’s age and etiology but dependent on clinical setting. Irrespective of setting and age, children with chronic cough should be carefully evaluated and child-specific evidence-based algorithms used.

An evaluation of crowd counting methods, features and regression models

Existing crowd counting algorithms rely on holistic, local or histogram based features to capture crowd properties. Regression is then employed to estimate the crowd size. Insufficient testing across multiple datasets has made it difficult to compare and contrast different methodologies. This paper presents an evaluation across multiple datasets to compare holistic, local and histogram based methods, and to compare various image features and regression models. A K-fold cross validation protocol is followed to evaluate the performance across five public datasets: UCSD, PETS 2009, Fudan, Mall and Grand Central datasets. Image features are categorised into five types: size, shape, edges, keypoints and textures. The regression models evaluated are: Gaussian process regression (GPR), linear regression, K nearest neighbours (KNN) and neural networks (NN). The results demonstrate that local features outperform equivalent holistic and histogram based features; optimal performance is observed using all image features except for textures; and that GPR outperforms linear, KNN and NN regression

Food and beverage intake in Australian children aged 12-16 months participating in the NOURISH and SAIDI studies

Objective To describe the quantity and diversity of food and beverage intake in Australian children aged 12–16 months and to determine if the amount and type of milk intake is associated with dietary diversity. Methods Mothers participating in the NOURISH and South Australian Infant Dietary Intake (SAIDI) studies completed a single 24-hour recall of their child's food intake, when children (n=551) were aged 12–16 months. The relationship between dietary diversity and intake of cow's milk, formula or breastmilk was examined using one-way ANOVA. Results Dairy and cereal were the most commonly consumed food groups and the greatest contributors to daily energy intake. Most children ate fruit (87%) and vegetables (77%) on the day of the 24-hour recall while 91% ate discretionary items. Half the sample ate less than 30 g of meat/alternatives. A quarter of the children were breastfeeding while formula was consumed by 32% of the sample, providing 29% of daily energy intake. Lower dietary diversity was associated with increased formula intake. Conclusions The quality of dietary intake in this group of young children is highly variable. Most toddlers were consuming a diverse diet, though almost all ate discretionary items. The amount and type of meat/alternatives consumed was poor. Implications Health professionals should advise parents to offer iron-rich foods, while limiting discretionary choices and use of formula at an age critical in the development of long-term food preferences.

When to pull the plug and when to take the plunge : timing strategic decisions about new ventures

It is not uncommon for firms to explore a new venture under the belief it will generate profits, only to find out later that although costs accumulated, profits did not materialize. To manage the high level of uncertainty involved in this process, new ventures are generally designed as vehicles of exploration (Wu, 2012) that allow for a staged investment of resources, starting with small initial investments that can be scaled up or discontinued as uncertainty is resolved over time (Folta, 1998; Li and Chi, 2013). As such, new ventures provide firms a vehicle by which they can probe an uncertain future (Brown and Eisenhardt, 1997) without fully committing early on to an irreversible course of action (Folta, Johnson, and O’Brien, 2006). Our focus in the present paper is on the timing of strategic decisions that firms make regarding their exploration ventures. Prior research in the fields of entrepreneurship, real options reasoning, and decision speed has demonstrated a link between the timing of making decisions and performance (Baum and Wally, 2003; Eisenhardt, 1989; Judge and Miller, 1991). The antecedents to the timing of decisions, however, are less understood and pose an interesting dilemma.

Prevalence and predictors of advance directives in Australia

Background Advance care planning is regarded as integral to better patient outcomes yet little is known about the prevalence of advance directives in Australia. Aims To determine the prevalence of advance directives (ADs) in the Australian population. Methods A national telephone survey about estate and advance planning. Sample was stratified by age (18-45 and >45 years) and quota sampling occurred based on population size in each State and Territory. Results Fourteen percent of the Australian population has an AD. There is State variation with people from South Australia and Queensland more likely to have an AD than people from other states. Will making and particularly completion of a financial enduring power of attorney are associated with higher rates of AD completion. Standard demographic variables were of limited use in predicting whether a person would have an AD. Conclusions Despite efforts to improve uptake of advance care planning (including ADs), barriers remain. One likely trigger for completing an AD and advance care planning is undertaking a wider future planning process (e.g. making a will or financial enduring power of attorney). This presents opportunities to increase advance care planning but steps are needed to ensure that planning which occurs outside the health system is sufficiently informed and supported by health information so that it is useful in the clinical setting. Variations by State could also suggest that redesign of regulatory frameworks (such as a user-friendly and well publicised form backed by statute) may help improve uptake of ADs.

Doctors' knowledge of the law on withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining medical treatment

Objectives To examine the level of knowledge of doctors about the law on withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack decision-making capacity, and factors associated with a higher level of knowledge. Design, setting and participants Postal survey of all specialists in emergency medicine, geriatric medicine, intensive care, medical oncology, palliative medicine, renal medicine and respiratory medicine on the AMPCo Direct database in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Survey initially posted to participants on 18 July 2012 and closed on 31 January 2013. Main outcome measures Medical specialists’ levels of knowledge about the law, based on their responses to two survey questions. Results Overall response rate was 32%. For the seven statements contained in the two questions about the law, the mean knowledge score was 3.26 out of 7. State and specialty were the strongest predictors of legal knowledge. Conclusions Among doctors who practise in the end-of-life field, there are some significant knowledge gaps about the law on withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack decision-making capacity. Significant consequences for both patients and doctors can flow from a failure to comply with the law. Steps should be taken to improve doctors’ legal knowledge in this area and to harmonise the law across Australia.

The use of penumbrae to define and analyse non-standard fields

Aim A new method of penumbral analysis is implemented which allows an unambiguous determination of field size and penumbra size and quality for small fields and other non-standard fields. Both source occlusion and lateral electronic disequilibrium will affect the size and shape of cross-axis profile penumbrae; each is examined in detail. Method A new method of penumbral analysis is implemented where the square of the derivative of the cross-axis profile is plotted. The resultant graph displays two peaks in the place of the two penumbrae. This allows a strong visualisation of the quality of a field penumbra, as well as a mathematically consistent method of determining field size (distance between the two peak’s maxima), and penumbra (full-widthtenth-maximum of peak). Cross-axis profiles were simulated in a water phantom at a depth of 5 cm using Monte Carlo modelling, for field sizes between 5 and 30 mm. The field size and penumbra size of each field was calculated using the method above, as well as traditional definitions set out in IEC976. The effect of source occlusion and lateral electronic disequilibrium on the penumbrae was isolated by repeating the simulations removing electron transport and using an electron spot size of 0 mm, respectively. Results All field sizes calculated using the traditional and proposed methods agreed within 0.2 mm. The penumbra size measured using the proposed method was systematically 1.8 mm larger than the traditional method at all field sizes. The size of the source had a larger effect on the size of the penumbra than did lateral electronic disequilibrium, particularly at very small field sizes. Conclusion Traditional methods of calculating field size and penumbra are proved to be mathematically adequate for small fields. However, the field size definition proposed in this study would be more robust amongst other nonstandard fields, such as flattening filter free. Source occlusion plays a bigger role than lateral electronic disequilibrium in small field penumbra size.

Effect of temperature and moisture on high pressure lipid/oil extraction from microalgae

Commercially viable carbon–neutral biodiesel production from microalgae has potential for replacing depleting petroleum diesel. The process of biodiesel production from microalgae involves harvesting, drying and extraction of lipids which are energy- and cost-intensive processes. The development of effective large-scale lipid extraction processes which overcome the complexity of microalgae cell structure is considered one of the most vital requirements for commercial production. Thus the aim of this work was to investigate suitable extraction methods with optimised conditions to progress opportunities for sustainable microalgal biodiesel production. In this study, the green microalgal species consortium, Tarong polyculture was used to investigate lipid extraction with hexane (solvent) under high pressure and variable temperature and biomass moisture conditions using an Accelerated Solvent Extraction (ASE) method. The performance of high pressure solvent extraction was examined over a range of different process and sample conditions (dry biomass to water ratios (DBWRs): 100%, 75%, 50% and 25% and temperatures from 70 to 120 ºC, process time 5–15 min). Maximum total lipid yields were achieved at 50% and 75% sample dryness at temperatures of 90–120 ºC. We show that individual fatty acids (Palmitic acid C16:0; Stearic acid C18:0; Oleic acid C18:1; Linolenic acid C18:3) extraction optima are influenced by temperature and sample dryness, consequently affecting microalgal biodiesel quality parameters. Higher heating values and kinematic viscosity were compliant with biodiesel quality standards under all extraction conditions used. Our results indicate that biodiesel quality can be positively manipulated by selecting process extraction conditions that favour extraction of saturated and mono-unsaturated fatty acids over optimal extraction conditions for polyunsaturated fatty acids, yielding positive effects on cetane number and iodine values. Exceeding biodiesel standards for these two parameters opens blending opportunities with biodiesels that fall outside the minimal cetane and maximal iodine values.

BIM-based lifecycle planning and specifications for sustainable cities of the future: A conceptual approach

Annually, several million tonnes of waste are produced from reworks, demolition, and use of substandard materials. Building Information Modelling (BIM), a digital representation of facilities and their constituent data, is a viable means of addressing some concerns about the impacts of these processes. BIM functionalities can be extended and combined with rich building information from specifications and product libraries, for efficient, streamlined design and construction. This paper conceptualises a framework for BIM-knowledge transfer from advanced economies for adaptation and use in urban development works in developing nations using the Sydney Down Under and Lagos Eko Atlantic projects as reference points. We present a scenario that highlights BIM-based lifecycle planning/specifications as agents of sustainable construction (in terms of cost and time) crucial to the quality of as-built data from early on in city development. We show how, through the use of BIM, city planners in developing nations can avoid high, retrospective (and sometimes wasteful) maintenance costs and leapfrog infrastructure management standards of advanced economies. Finally, this paper illustrates how BIM can address concerns about economic sustainability during city development in developing countries by enriching model objects with specification information sourced from a product library.

Experimental evidence for competitive N–O and O–C bond homolysis in gasphase alkoxyamines

The extensive use of alkoxyamines in controlled radical polymerisation and polymer stabilisation is based on rapid cycling between the alkoxyamine (R1R2NO–R3) and a stable nitroxyl radical (R1R2NO•) via homolysis of the labile O–C bond. Competing homolysis of the alkoxyamine N–O bond has been predicted to occur for some substituents leading to production of aminyl and alkoxyl radicals. This intrinsic competition between the O–C and N–O bond homolysis processes has to this point been difficult to probe experimentally. Herein we examine the effect of local molecular structure on the competition between N–O and O–C bond cleavage in the gas phase by variable energy tandem mass spectrometry in a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer. A suite of cyclic alkoxyamines with remote carboxylic acid moieties (HOOC–R1R2NO–R3) were synthesised and subjected to negative ion electrospray ionisation to yield [M – H]− anions where the charge is remote from the alkoxyamine moiety. Collision-induced dissociation of these anions yield product ions resulting, almost exclusively, from homolysis of O–C and/or N–O bonds. The relative efficacy of N–O and O–C bond homolysis was examined for alkoxyamines incorporating different R3 substituents by varying the potential difference applied to the collision cell, and comparing dissociation thresholds of each product ion channel. For most R3 substituents, product ions from homolysis of the O–C bond are observed and product ions resulting from cleavage of the N–O bond are minor or absent. A limited number of examples were encountered however, where N–O homolysis is a competitive dissociation pathway because the O–C bond is stabilised by adjacent heteroatom(s) (e.g., R3 = CH2F). The dissociation threshold energies were compared for different alkoxyamine substituents (R3) and the relative ordering of these experimentally determined energies is shown to correlate with the bond dissociation free energies, calculated by ab initio methods. Understanding the structure-dependent relationship between these rival processes will assist in the design and selection of alkoxyamine motifs that selectively promote the desirable O–C homolysis pathway.

Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation

Quantifying the impact of biochemical compounds on collective cell spreading is an essential element of drug design, with various applications including developing treatments for chronic wounds and cancer. Scratch assays are a technically simple and inexpensive method used to study collective cell spreading; however, most previous interpretations of scratch assays are qualitative and do not provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, or the cell proliferation rate,l. Estimating D and l is important for investigating the efficacy of a potential treatment and provides insight into the mechanism through which the potential treatment acts. While a few methods for estimating D and l have been proposed, these previous methods lead to point estimates of D and l, and provide no insight into the uncertainty in these estimates. Here, we compare various types of information that can be extracted from images of a scratch assay, and quantify D and l using discrete computational simulations and approximate Bayesian computation. We show that it is possible to robustly recover estimates of D and l from synthetic data, as well as a new set of experimental data. For the first time, our approach also provides a method to estimate the uncertainty in our estimates of D and l. We anticipate that our approach can be generalized to deal with more realistic experimental scenarios in which we are interested in estimating D and l, as well as additional relevant parameters such as the strength of cell-to-cell adhesion or the strength of cell-to-substrate adhesion.