The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

Human-animal interaction, stress, and embryo production in Bos indicus embryo donors under tropical conditions

This study investigated the effect of human-animal interaction (HAI) and the stress response on the quality of embryo production in superovulated Nelore (Bos indicus) cattle, under tropical conditions. Thirty-two females underwent a superovulation protocol for 5 days. Cortisol concentrations were determined in blood plasma collected on days 0, 4, and 5. Artificial insemination was performed on days 4 and 5, and nonsurgical embryo flushing on day 11. Embryo production and viability were determined. Human stimulation, animal behaviors, accidents, and handling time were recorded to assess HAI. Cattle age was negatively correlated with accidents, frequency of aversive behaviors, and negative stimuli by stockperson during transit through corral compartments to receive superovulation treatments. The factor analysis revealed two distinct groups. The first group was called stressed and had higher cortisol concentration than the nonstressed group, 16.0 +/- 2.1 and 12.5 +/- 1.0 ng/mL, respectively. Comparisons between these groups showed that the frequency of voice emissions by the stockperson and the number of accidents were higher in the stressed group, and also, the mean handling time was longer in the stressed group than for the nonstressed. As a result, viability rate of the embryos was 19% lower in the stressed group (P < 0.05). This indicates that intensive negative HAI is likely related to stress, which affects embryo production in a superovulation program.

Assessment of production efficiency, physicochemical properties and storage stability of spray-dried chlorophyllide, a natural food colourant, using gum Arabic, maltodextrin and soy protein isolate-based carrier systems

P>The aim of this research was to study spray drying as potential action to protect chlorophyllide from environmental conditions for shelf-life extension and characterisation of the powders. Six formulations were prepared with 7.5 and 10 g of carrier agents [gum Arabic (GA), maltodextrin (MA) and soybean protein isolate (SPI)]/100 mL of chlorophyllide solutions. The powders were evaluated for morphological characteristics (SEM), particle size, water activity, moisture, density, hygroscopicity, cold water solubility, sorption isotherms, colour and stability, during 90 days. All the powders were highly soluble, with solubility values around 97%. A significant lower hygroscopicity was observed for GA powders, whilst the lower X(m) values obtained by GAB equation fitting of the sorption isotherms was observed for the 7.5 g MA/100 mL samples. All formulations, but the 1 (7.5 g SPI/100 mL of chlorophyllide), provided excellent stability to the chlorophyllide during 90 days of storage even at room temperature.