The potential for tobacco control to reduce PBS costs for smoking-related cardiovaccular disease

Objective: To estimate Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) subsidies for drugs to treat smoking-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 2001-02, and over the period of the government's Intergenerational Report (IGR), assuming current smoking prevalence rates and a 5% absolute reduction.

Design and setting: An Australian epidemiological study, using prescribing data, aetiological fraction methodology, and IGR trends.

Main outcome measures: Estimated smoking-related PBS subsidy costs in 2001-02 and predicted cumulative subsidies until 2041-42, under current and reduced smoking prevalence assumptions.

Results: The PBS costs of smoking-related CVD in 2001-02 were $126 million, 9.77% of the cost of drugs for CVD and 2.96% of total PBS subsidies. The cumulative difference in these costs over the 40-year period with a 5% drop in smoking prevalence was predicted to be $4.5 billion, a 17% reduction. The saving would be $1.14 billion discounting future costs at 5% per year.

Conclusions: Further investment in tobacco control interventions could curb the increasing cost of the PBS and contribute to government efforts to ensure the viability of Australia's healthcare-financing programs. The net present value of a campaign to reduce smoking prevalence was estimated at $1 billion, with an internal rate of return of 33%.

Impact of tobacco tax reforms on tobacco prices and tobacco use in Australia

OBJECTIVE: To document the impact of changes to tobacco taxes on the range and price of tobacco sold during the period when the National Tobacco Campaign (NTC) was run.

DATA SOURCES: Information about brand availability, pack size, and price was extracted from Australian Retail Tobacconist. A retail observational survey was undertaken to monitor actual retail prices. Data on cigarette prices, brands, packet configurations, and outlets from which they were purchased were obtained from the benchmark and three follow up population telephone surveys conducted to evaluate the NTC.

METHOD: Data from the three sources were compared to see the extent to which the impact of tax changes had been offset by greater retail discounting and a more concerted effort by consumers to purchase cheaper products.

RESULTS: Smokers were unable to cushion themselves from the sharp price increases that occurred during the third phase of the NTC. Both average recommended retail prices of manufactured cigarettes and average actual cigarette prices paid by smokers increased by 25% in real prices.

CONCLUSION: The fall in smoking prevalence over the first two phases of the NTC was substantially greater than would be expected due to tax changes alone. The fall in smoking consumption over the first two phases was slightly less than would be expected and in the third considerably higher than would be expected.

Consequences of youth tobacco use: a review of prospective behavioural studies

Background Cigarette smoking represents a significant health problem and tobacco has been identified as causing more preventable diseases and premature deaths than any other drug. Although health consequences from smoking have been documented, there has been a surprising lack of research into behavioural consequences.

Aims To review what is known of the long-term relationship between patterns of tobacco use prior to age 18 years and behavioural consequences in adulthood.

Method A literature search of electronic abstraction services from 1980 to September 2005 was conducted. To be included in the review, studies had to have large, representative samples, be longitudinal studies with baseline age under 18 years and follow-up age 18 years or older and clarify effects due to attrition, leaving 16 articles that met the inclusion criteria. Two reviewers evaluated each paper.

Findings Adolescent tobacco use predicts a range of early adult social and health problems. Surprisingly few studies met the inclusion criteria. The limited evidence available suggests that adolescent tobacco smoking increases the likelihood of early adult tobacco use and the initiation of alcohol use or the development of alcohol-related problems. The link between adolescent tobacco use and subsequent cannabis use was not resolved convincingly from the studies summarized. The effects of tobacco use on later illicit drug use tended to fall away when adjusting for underlying risk factors. Existing studies of the effects of tobacco use on later mental health have many limitations. Nevertheless, a finding that youth tobacco use may predict subsequent mental health problems deserves further investigation. The possible effects of tobacco use on academic/social problems and sleep problems also warrant further investigation.

Conclusion This review highlights links between youth tobacco use and subsequent behavioural and mental health problems. It provides health care professionals with evidence of the possible harmful effects of youth tobacco smoking on later social, emotional, and behavioural well-being.

Insuring cleaner oceans: the economics of oil pollution prevention

The current system of controlling oil spills involves a complex relationship of international, federal and state law, which has not proven to be very effective. The multiple layers of regulation often leave shipowners unsure of the laws facing them. Furthemore, nations have had difficulty enforcing these legal requirements. This thesis deals with the role marine insurance can play within the existing system of legislation to provide a strong preventative influence that is simple and cost-effective to enforce. In principle, insurance has two ways of enforcing higher safety standards and limiting the risk of an accident occurring. The first is through the use of insurance premiums that are based on the level of care taken by the insured. This means that a person engaging in riskier behavior faces a higher insurance premium, because their actions increase the probability of an accident occurring. The second method, available to the insurer, is collectively known as cancellation provisions or underwriting clauses. These are clauses written into an insurance contract that invalidates the agreement when certain conditions are not met by the insured The problem has been that obtaining information about the behavior of an insured party requires monitoring and that incurs a cost to the insurer. The application of these principles proves to be a more complicated matter. The modern marine insurance industry is a complicated system of multiple contracts, through different insurers, that covers the many facets of oil transportation. Their business practices have resulted in policy packages that cross the neat bounds of individual, specific insurance coverage. This paper shows that insurance can improve safety standards in three general areas -crew training, hull and equipment construction and maintenance, and routing schemes and exclusionary zones. With crew, hull and equipment, underwriting clauses can be used to ensure that minimum standards are met by the insured. Premiums can then be structured to reflect the additional care taken by the insured above and beyond these minimum standards. Routing schemes are traffic flow systems applied to congested waterways, such as the entrance to New York harbor. Using natural obstacles or manmade dividers, ships are separated into two lanes of opposing traffic, similar to a road. Exclusionary zones are marine areas designated off limits to tanker traffic either because of a sensitive ecosystem or because local knowledge is required of the region to ensure safe navigation. Underwriting clauses can be used to nullify an insurance contract when a tanker is not in compliance with established exclusionary zones or routing schemes.

Mercury content of tobacco products

Mercury contamination of food products results from contact with soil, water, and air polluted with mercury from industrial sources, as well as from the use of mercury-containing pesticides and fungicides on plants. A method was developed for extracting mercury from tobacco products. The mercury content of various tobacco products was determined, using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer.

No smoke without fire : Benedict XVI and true liturgical reform

I read the recent comments on Pope Paul VI and the 'smoke of Satan' (July AD2000) with interest not long after I had finished re-reading the massive work by the late Archbishop Annibale Bugnini, generally considered to be the main architect of the liturgical reforms prior to, during, and after Vatican II.

The effect of smoke-free policies on revenue in bars in Tasmania, Australia

Objective: To examine the impact of smoke-free policies on revenue in Tasmanian bars.

Method: Monthly sales turnover from January 2002 to March 2007, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics was analysed. There were two outcome measures: (1) the ratio of monthly bar sales turnover in Tasmania to monthly bar sales turnover in four other Australian states, and (2) the ratio of monthly bar turnover to monthly retail turnover in Tasmania. Linear regression was used to assess the impact of the smoke-free policy on expenditure.

Results: The smoke-free policy had no effect on sales turnover.

Conclusion: The smoke-free policy protects hospitality workers and patrons from exposure to secondhand smoke and has had no adverse effect on sales turnover.

The effect of a smoke-free law on restaurant business in South Australia

Background: Despite evidence to the contrary from overseas research, the introduction of smoke-free legislation in South Australia (SA), which required all restaurants to go smoke-free in January 1999, sparked concerns among the hospitality industry about loss of restaurant business. This study aimed to determine whether the law had a detrimental impact on restaurant business in SA.

Methods: Using time series analysis, we compared the ratio of monthly restaurant turnover from restaurants and cafes in SA to (a) total retail turnover in SA (minus restaurants) for the years 1991 to 2001 and (b) Australian restaurant turnover (minus SA, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory) for the years 1991–2000.

Results: There was no decline in the ratio of (a) SA restaurant turnover to SA retail turnover or (b) SA restaurant turnover to Australian restaurant turnover.

Conclusion: The introduction of a smoke-free law applying to restaurants in SA did not adversely affect restaurant business in SA.

Is restricting tobacco sales the answer to adolescent smoking?

Background: Enforcement of legislation restricting retail access to tobacco is increasingly relied on to reduce adolescent smoking rates. In 1996, health authorities in the Northern Sydney Health Area began monitoring tobacco retailer compliance (PROOF program) with staged purchase attempts by adolescents below the legal age (18 years).

Methods: Repeat cross-sectional surveys before (1995) and after (2000) the introduction of PROOF monitored changes in adolescent smoking behaviour. Students aged 12 to 17 years from 11 Northern Sydney metropolitan public secondary schools were surveyed for self-reported smoking and tobacco purchasing behavior in 1995 (n = 5,206) and 2000 (n = 4,120).

Results: Between 1996 and 2000, 545 retailer compliance checks found 34% unlawfully sold cigarettes to minors and 28% of these repeated the offence. Nine prosecutions resulted. Modelling revealed a significant association between the intervention and never having smoked (adjusted OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.01–1.33) although there was no significant association with being a current smoker. The odds of being a smoker were greater for students from coeducational schools, with this effect being modified by gender.

Conclusions: There was no reduction in adolescent smoking with active enforcement of tobacco access laws despite an apparent increase in students who reported never to have smoked.