Mimicking the behaviour of idiotypic AIS robot controllers using probabilistic systems

Previous work has shown that robot navigation systems that employ an architecture based upon the idiotypic network theory of the immune system have an advantage over control techniques that rely on reinforcement learning only. This is thought to be a result of intelligent behaviour selection on the part of the idiotypic robot. In this paper an attempt is made to imitate idiotypic dynamics by creating controllers that use reinforcement with a number of different probabilistic schemes to select robot behaviour. The aims are to show that the idiotypic system is not merely performing some kind of periodic random behaviour selection, and to try to gain further insight into the processes that govern the idiotypic mechanism. Trials are carried out using simulated Pioneer robots that undertake navigation exercises. Results show that a scheme that boosts the probability of selecting highly-ranked alternative behaviours to 50% during stall conditions comes closest to achieving the properties of the idiotypic system, but remains unable to match it in terms of all round performance.

Metastability and dynamics of stem cells: from direct observations to inference at the single cell level

Organismal development, homeostasis, and pathology are rooted in inherently probabilistic events. From gene expression to cellular differentiation, rates and likelihoods shape the form and function of biology. Processes ranging from growth to cancer homeostasis to reprogramming of stem cells all require transitions between distinct phenotypic states, and these occur at defined rates. Therefore, measuring the fidelity and dynamics with which such transitions occur is central to understanding natural biological phenomena and is critical for therapeutic interventions.

While these processes may produce robust population-level behaviors, decisions are made by individual cells. In certain circumstances, these minuscule computing units effectively roll dice to determine their fate. And while the 'omics' era has provided vast amounts of data on what these populations are doing en masse, the behaviors of the underlying units of these processes get washed out in averages.

Therefore, in order to understand the behavior of a sample of cells, it is critical to reveal how its underlying components, or mixture of cells in distinct states, each contribute to the overall phenotype. As such, we must first define what states exist in the population, determine what controls the stability of these states, and measure in high dimensionality the dynamics with which these cells transition between states.

To address a specific example of this general problem, we investigate the heterogeneity and dynamics of mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs). While a number of reports have identified particular genes in ES cells that switch between 'high' and 'low' metastable expression states in culture, it remains unclear how levels of many of these regulators combine to form states in transcriptional space. Using a method called single molecule mRNA fluorescent in situ hybridization (smFISH), we quantitatively measure and fit distributions of core pluripotency regulators in single cells, identifying a wide range of variabilities between genes, but each explained by a simple model of bursty transcription. From this data, we also observed that strongly bimodal genes appear to be co-expressed, effectively limiting the occupancy of transcriptional space to two primary states across genes studied here. However, these states also appear punctuated by the conditional expression of the most highly variable genes, potentially defining smaller substates of pluripotency.

Having defined the transcriptional states, we next asked what might control their stability or persistence. Surprisingly, we found that DNA methylation, a mark normally associated with irreversible developmental progression, was itself differentially regulated between these two primary states. Furthermore, both acute or chronic inhibition of DNA methyltransferase activity led to reduced heterogeneity among the population, suggesting that metastability can be modulated by this strong epigenetic mark.

Finally, because understanding the dynamics of state transitions is fundamental to a variety of biological problems, we sought to develop a high-throughput method for the identification of cellular trajectories without the need for cell-line engineering. We achieved this by combining cell-lineage information gathered from time-lapse microscopy with endpoint smFISH for measurements of final expression states. Applying a simple mathematical framework to these lineage-tree associated expression states enables the inference of dynamic transitions. We apply our novel approach in order to infer temporal sequences of events, quantitative switching rates, and network topology among a set of ESC states.

Taken together, we identify distinct expression states in ES cells, gain fundamental insight into how a strong epigenetic modifier enforces the stability of these states, and develop and apply a new method for the identification of cellular trajectories using scalable in situ readouts of cellular state.

UNDERSTANDING LATE SEASON FRUIT ROT PATHOSYSTEMS AND INSECT INTERACTIONS IN MID-ATLANTIC VINEYARDS

Fungal fruit rots and insect pests are among the most important problems negatively affecting the yield and quality of mid-Atlantic wine. In pathogenicity trials of fungi recovered from diseased Chardonnay and Vidal blanc grapes, Alternaria alternata, Pestalotiopsis telopeae, and Aspergillus japonicus were found to be unreported fruit rot pathogens in the region. Additionally, P. telopeae and A. japonicus had comparable virulence to the region’s common fruit rot pathogens. Furthermore, a timed-exclusion field study was implemented to evaluate vineyard insect-fruit rot relationships. It was found that clusters exposed to early-season insect communities that included Paralobesia viteana had a significantly greater incidence of sour rot than clusters protected from insects all season. These results were contrary to the current assumption that fall insects are the primary drivers of sour rot in the region. This research provides diagnostic tools and information to develop management-strategies against fungal and insect pests for mid-Atlantic grape growers.

A Bayesian network dealing with measurements and residuals for system monitoring

International audience

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

Probability and Common-Sense: Tandem Towards Robust Robotic Object Recognition in Ambient Assisted Living

The suitable operation of mobile robots when providing Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) services calls for robust object recognition capabilities. Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) have become the de-facto choice in recognition systems aiming to e ciently exploit contextual relations among objects, also dealing with the uncertainty inherent to the robot workspace. However, these models can perform in an inco herent way when operating in a long-term fashion out of the laboratory, e.g. while recognizing objects in peculiar con gurations or belonging to new types. In this work we propose a recognition system that resorts to PGMs and common-sense knowledge, represented in the form of an ontology, to detect those inconsistencies and learn from them. The utilization of the ontology carries additional advantages, e.g. the possibility to verbalize the robot's knowledge. A primary demonstration of the system capabilities has been carried out with very promising results.

Students’ Involvement in School and Parental Support: Contributions to the Socio-Educational Intervention

Student involvement in the school and the perception of parental support are core variables in the context of studies on personal and school adjustment of children and adolescents and should be considered in the context of socio-educational intervention. In this study, we formulated the following objectives: i) to understand the differences in students’ involvement in school and the perception of parental support, according to several socio- demographic and school variables, ii) to analyse the relationship between involvement and the perception of parental support iii) to outline socio-educational intervention strategies in the contexts of children’s lives. This is a non-experimental, correlational and cross-sectional study by means of a non-probabilistic convenience sample consisting of 150 children, aged between 10 and 16 years, attending the 2nd and 3rd cycles basic education [5th – 9th years of schooling] attending a school in the central region of Portugal. The data collection instruments were “Students’ Engagement in School: a Four-Dimensional Scale – SES-4DS” (Veiga 2013, 2016), the “Perceived Parental Support Scale” (Veiga, 2011) and a part with socio-demographic and school questions was added. We found significant differences in overall (and partial) amounts of student involvement and the perception of parental support, depending on the age, gender (in agency and behaviour subscales), school difficulties/retentions and methods of study (time, a place to study and a study schedule). We also found positive and significant relationships between student involvement and perception of parental support. The results are in line with the scientific literature in the field, which highlights the key role of the variables, student involvement and perception of parental support in the academic and psychosocial adjustment of young people. These should be considered in the context of socio-educational intervention. Given the above, we present areas and action strategies promoting parent and student involvement in the educational process.

Children at risk, attachment and institutionalization: contributions to the socio-educational intervention

Introduction: Institutionalized children exposed to early adverse experiences are a particularly vulnerable group with a high risk of developing health problems. Objectives: i) to know the representations of attachment in institutionalized children; ii) to understand if there are differences of attachment, according to some sociodemographic variables; iii) outline socio-educational intervention strategies in the children’s life’s contexts. Methods: This is an exploratory and cross-sectional study, using for this purpose, a non-probabilistic and convenience sample composed of 82 institutionalized children, aged between 8 and 17 years old. The gathering instruments were the Sociodemographic Questionnaire and the Inventory Attachment for Children and Adolescents. Results: The results show that most children have secure attachment representations, followed by the avoidant attachment representations. We also found signiicant differences in the results of attachment, according to the gender (in avoidant attachment and ambivalent attachment) and in the institutionalization time (in the ambivalent attachment). Conclusions: The results show promising lines of research, being our purpose to outline socio-educational intervention strategies for children in their pathways of life by promoting protective factors, especially the establishment of secure relationships, thus promoting better quality of life and well-being.

Resilience, perception of parental support and socio-educational intervention strategies

Introduction: Resilience is a core variable in the context of studies on the psychosocial adjustment and school children and teenagers, and should be considered in the context of strategies to promote their well- being and quality of life. Objectives: To know the relationship between resilience, parental support and some sociodemographic variables; outline socio-educational intervention strategies in contexts of children’s lives. Methods: This is a non-experimental, correlational and cross-sectional study, having used a non- probabilistic convenience sample consisting of 150 children, aged between 10 and 16 years old, attending the 2nd and 3rd cycles of Basic Education. The gathering instruments were the Sociodemographic Questionnaire, Inventory Measuring State and Child Resilience (Martins, 2005) and Perception Parental Support Scale (Veiga, 2011). Results: Results show that there are signiicant differences in the values of the current, past and overall resilience, between the age groups children, revealing that children aged between 10 and 11 years have higher results in resilience than young people aged between 14 and 16 years. We also observed signiicant differences in the current resilience, depending on the parents’ marital status (higher when parents are married). We also observed positive and signiicant correlations between resilience and perception of parental support. Conclusions: Results are in line with the scientiic literature in the ield that highlights the key role of resilience in school and psychosocial adjustment of children, and should be considered within the design of socio-educational intervention strategies. Keywords: Resilience. Parental support. Attachment

Ethical-moral courses of action and active citizenship in health students

Abstract Introduction: The practice of active citizenship, ethical-moral courses of action and civic, moral and ethics education are essentials for ethical decision making in health. Objetive: To determine if gender influences students’ ethical- moral course of action. Methods: Descriptive study with a non-probabilistic sample of 85 students enrolled in the 1st cycle of the health degree. Results: Of the participants surveyed 61.2% were found to say that action should take into account their moral principles, with ethical/ moral subjectivism prevailing; 44.7% consider that one should “Do what will have the best consequences for the greatest number of people”, with the principle of utilitarianism being significant; 55.3% think that “An action is ethically good” if “It is in accordance with morality”, thereby highlighting subjectivism/relativism; 45.9% believe that “ethical-moral values” “are relative and vary from society to society” agreeing with relativism as an explanatory principle for action. Males showed a greater tendency to support their decision-making with the principle of objectivism, (Fischer=.010). Conclusion: The results suggest that students’ ethical-moral education is required to promote an ethical-moral course of action in their professional practice. Thus, universities with their health courses should be at the forefront of this education, making their graduates ambassadors/interveners of a way of knowing and of being as well as promoters of the dignity of the citizen of the modern world.

Adherence to therapeuthic regimen and metabolic control of type 1 diabetes

Abstract Objectives: To assess the adherence to therapeutic regimen; to determine the Hemoglobin Glycation Index (HbA1c); to analyse the relationship that exists between the adherence to therapeutic regimen and metabolic control. Design: correlational analytical study, carried out according to a cross-sectional perspective. Participants: A non-probabilistic sample of 266 people with type 1 diabetes aged between 18 and 78 years old (mean M = 51.02 ± SD = 18.710), attending follow-up diabetes consultations. Mostly male individuals (51.88%), with low schooling level (50.75% had only inished elementar school). Measuring Instruments: We used the following data collection tools: a questionnaire on clinical and socio-demographic data, blood analysis of venous blood to determine the glycated hemoglobin level (HbA1c).Three self-report scales were used: Accession to Diabetes Treatment (Matos, 1999), Self-perception Scale (Vaz Serra, 1986) and Social Support Scale (Matos & Rodrigues, 2000). Results: In a sample in which the mean disease duration is 12.75 years, 69.17% of the sample run glycemic control tests between once a day and four times a year and 42.86% of them undergo insulin treatment. In the last 3 weeks, 26.32% of these people have experienced an average of 4.22 to 44.36%, hypoglycemic crises and experienced an average of 6.18 hyperglycemic crises. 57% of the individuals have showed a poor metabolic control (mean HbA1c higher than 7.5% (HbA1c mean M ≥ 7.50%). The mean psychosocial proile revealed individuals who show a decent self-esteem (M = 70.81) and acceptable social support (M = 58.89). Conclusions: The results suggest we should develop a kind of investigation that could be used to monitor the strenght of the mediation effect effect of the psychosocial predictive dimension of the adherence, since it has become essential to support a multidisciplinary approach which center lays in the promotion of a co-responsible self-management from the person who suffers from diabetes. This will enable a better quality of life; fewer years of people’s lives lost prematurely and a better health with less economical costs for citizens and healthcare systems.

Probabilistic Security Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow Models

In restructured power systems, generation and commercialization activities became market activities, while transmission and distribution activities continue as regulated monopolies. As a result, the adequacy of transmission network should be evaluated independent of generation system. After introducing the constrained fuzzy power flow (CFPF) as a suitable tool to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy 'reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity' (as stated, for instance, at European Directive 2009/72/EC), the aim is now showing how this approach can be used in conjunction with probabilistic criteria in security analysis. In classical security analysis models of power systems are considered the composite system (generation plus transmission). The state of system components is usually modeled with probabilities and loads (and generation) are modeled by crisp numbers, probability distributions or fuzzy numbers. In the case of CFPF the component’s failure of the transmission network have been investigated. In this framework, probabilistic methods are used for failures modeling of the transmission system components and possibility models are used to deal with 'reasonable demands'. The enhanced version of the CFPF model is applied to an illustrative case.

A probabilistic approach to user mobility prediction for wireless services.

Mobile and wireless networks have long exploited mobility predictions, focused on predicting the future location of given users, to perform more efficient network resource management. In this paper, we present a new approach in which we provide predictions as a probability distribution of the likelihood of moving to a set of future locations. This approach provides wireless services a greater amount of knowledge and enables them to perform more effectively. We present a framework for the evaluation of this new type of predictor, and develop 2 new predictors, HEM and G-Stat. We evaluate our predictors accuracy in predicting future cells for mobile users, using two large geolocation data sets, from MDC [11], [12] and Crawdad [13]. We show that our predictors can successfully predict with as low as an average 2.2% inaccuracy in certain scenarios.

Abuse and neglect of elderly and independence in instrumental and basic activities of daily living.

Introduction: One of the known risk factors for abuse and neglect of the elderly is the decrease in functional capacity, contributing to self care dependency of instrumental activities of daily living and basic activities of daily living (OMS, 2015). Methods: Cross-sectional study with non probabilistic sample of 333 elderly, performed in a hospital, homes and day centers for the elderly. The data collection protocol included socio-demographic data, Questions to elicit Elder Abuse (Carney, Kahan & Paris, 2003 adap. By Ferreira Alves & Sousa, 2005), scale of instrumental activities of daily living Lawton and Brody and Katz index to assess the level of independence in activities of daily living. Objectives: To evaluate the association between abuse and neglect in the elderly, instrumental activities of daily living and level of independence in activities of daily living. Results: Emotional abuse is significantly correlated with the level of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.000), older people with less independence tend to have higher levels of emotional abuse. The total abuse is significantly correlated with the levels of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.002), less independent elderly tend to suffer greater abuse and neglect. There were no statistically significant associations between abuse and neglect and instrumental activities of daily living. Conclusions: The less independent elderly are more vulnerable to situations of abuse and neglect, being more exposed to emotional abuse. These results point to the need for health professionals/ nurses develop prevention interventions, including strategies to support carers and early screening in less independent elderly.

Abuse and neglect of elderly and independence in instrumental and basic activities of daily living

Introduction: One of the known risk factors for abuse and neglect of the elderly is the decrease in functional capacity, contributing to self care dependency of instrumental activities of daily living and basic activities of daily living (OMS, 2015). Methods: Cross-sectional study with non probabilistic sample of 333 elderly, performed in a hospital, homes and day centers for the elderly. The data collection protocol included socio-demographic data, Questions to elicit Elder Abuse (Carney, Kahan & Paris, 2003 adap. By Ferreira Alves & Sousa, 2005), scale of instrumental activities of daily living Lawton and Brody and Katz index to assess the level of independence in activities of daily living. Objectives: To evaluate the association between abuse and neglect in the elderly, instrumental activities of daily living and level of independence in activities of daily living. Results: Emotional abuse is significantly correlated with the level of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.000), older people with less independence tend to have higher levels of emotional abuse. The total abuse is significantly correlated with the levels of independence in activities of daily living (p = 0.002), less independent elderly tend to suffer greater abuse and neglect. There were no statistically significant associations between abuse and neglect and instrumental activities of daily living. Conclusions: The less independent elderly are more vulnerable to situations of abuse and neglect, being more exposed to emotional abuse. These results point to the need for health professionals/ nurses develop prevention interventions, including strategies to support carers and early screening in less independent elderly.