869 resultados para Time-varying bond risk premia


Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In 1875, 7 years prior to the description of the Koch bacillus, Klebs visualized the first Streptococcus pneumoniae in a pleural fluid. Since then, this organism has played a determinant role in biomedical science. From a biological point of view, it was largely implicated in the development of passive and active immunization by serotherapy and vaccination, respectively. Genetic transformation was also first observed in S. pneumoniae, leading to the discovery of DNA. From a clinical point of view, S. pneumoniae is still today a prime cause of otitis media in children and of pneumonia in all age groups, as well as a predominant cause of meningitis and bacteremia. In adults, bacteremia is still entailed with a mortality of over 25%. Although S. pneumoniae remained very sensitive to penicillin for many years, penicillin-resistance has emerged and increased dramatically over the last 15 years. During this period of time, the frequency of penicillin-resistant isolates has increased from < or = 1% to frequencies varying from 20 to 60% in geographic areas as diverse as South Africa, Spain, France, Hungary, Iceland, Alaska, and numerous regions of the United States and South America. In Switzerland, the current frequency of penicillin-resistant pneumococci ranges between 5 and > or = 10%. The increase in penicillin-resistant pneumococci correlates with the intensive use of beta-lactam antibiotics. The mechanism of resistance is not due to bacterial production of penicillinase, but to an alteration of the bacterial target of penicillin, the so-called penicillin-binding proteins. Resistance is subdivided into (i) inter mediate level resistance (minimal inhibitory concentration [MIC] of penicillin of 0.1-1 mg/L) and (ii) high level resistance (MCI > or = 2 mg/L). The clinical significance of intermediate resistance remains poorly defined. On the other hand, highly resistant strains were responsible for numerous therapeutical failures, especially in cases of meningitis. Antibiotics recommended against penicillin-resistant pneumococci include cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, imipenem and in some instances vancomycin. However, penicillin-resistant pneumococci tend to present cross-resistances to all the antibotics of the beta-lactam family and could even become resistant to the last resort drugs mentioned above. Thus, in conclusion, the explosion of resistance to penicillin in pneumococci is a ubiquitous phenomenon which must be fought against by (i) a strict utilization of antibiotics, (ii) the practice of microbiological sampling of infected foci before treatment, (iii) the systematic surveillance of resistance profiles of pneumococci against antibiotics and (iv) the adequate vaccination of populations at risk.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

PURPOSE: Negative lifestyle factors are known to be associated with increased cardiovascular risk (CVR) in children, but research on their combined impact on a general population of children is sparse. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined impact of easily assessable negative lifestyle factors on the CVR scores of randomly selected children after 4 years. METHODS: Of the 540 randomly selected 6- to 13-year-old children, 502 children participated in a baseline health assessment, and 64% were assessed again after 4 years. Measures included anthropometry, fasting blood samples, and a health assessment questionnaire. Participants scored one point for each negative lifestyle factor at baseline: overweight; physical inactivity; high media consumption; little outdoor time; skipping breakfast; and having a parent who has ever smoked, is inactive, or overweight. A CVR score at follow-up was constructed by averaging sex- and age-related z-scores of waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, inverted high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides. RESULTS: The age-, sex-, pubertal stage-, and social class-adjusted probabilities (95% confidence interval) for being in the highest CVR score tertile at follow-up for children who had at most one (n = 48), two (n = 64), three (n = 56), four (n = 41), or five or more (n = 14) risky lifestyle factors were 15.4% (8.9-25.3), 24.3% (17.4-32.8), 36.0% (28.6-44.2), 49.8% (38.6-61.0), and 63.5% (47.2-77.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Even in childhood, an accumulation of negative lifestyle factors is associated with higher CVR scores after 4 years. These negative lifestyle factors are easy to assess in clinical practice and allow early detection and prevention of CVR in childhood.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The relationship between oestrogen replacement treatment and the risk of endometrial cancer was analysed in a case-control study of 158 histologically confirmed incident cases below the age of 75 and 468 controls in hospital for acute, non-neoplastic, non-hormone-related conditions conducted in the Swiss Canton of Vaud in 1988-1992. Overall, 60 (38%) cases vs. 93 (20%) controls had ever used oestrogen replacement treatment: the corresponding multiple logistic regression relative risk (RR) was 2.7 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.7-4.1). The risk was directly related to duration of use, and rose to 5.1 (95% CI: 2.7-9.8) for > 5 year-use. The RR was still significantly elevated 10 or more years after stopping use (RR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.2-4.5). When the role of covariates was considered, a significant interaction was observed with body mass index (RR for long-term oestrogen use = 6.0 for lean or normal weight women vs. 2.4 for overweight women). There was also a hint of a negative interaction with oral contraceptive (OC) use, since the RR for oestrogens was higher (or restricted) to women who had never used OC (RR = 5.4, for long-term oestrogen use), as compared with those who had used OC, who showed no significant evidence of association with oestrogens (RR = 0.9 for long-term use). There was no significant interaction with cigarette smoking. Thus, this study confirms the presence of a strong association between oestrogen replacement treatment and endometrial cancer risk, since in the late 1980s or early 1990s about 25% of cases could be attributed to oestrogen replacement treatment in this Swiss population. Further, it confirms the presence of significant negative interactions of oestrogen use with obesity, and, possibly, with OC as well.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to assess the prevalence of major cardiovascular risk factors in familial premature coronary artery disease (P-CAD), affecting two or more siblings within one sibship. BACKGROUND: Premature CAD has a genetic component. It remains to be established whether familial P-CAD is due to genes acting independently from major cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We recruited 213 P-CAD survivors from 103 sibships diagnosed before age <or=50 (men) or <or=55 (women) years old. Hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and smoking were documented at the time of the event in 163 patients (145 men and 18 women). Each patient was compared with two individuals of the same age and gender, diagnosed with sporadic (nonfamilial) P-CAD, and three individuals randomly sampled from the general population. RESULTS: Compared with the general population, patients with sporadic P-CAD had a higher prevalence of hypertension (29% vs. 14%, p < 0.001), hypercholesterolemia (54% vs. 33%, p < 0.001), obesity (20% vs. 13%, p < 0.01), and smoking (76% vs. 39%, p < 0.001). These risk factors were equally or even more prevalent in patients with familial P-CAD (43% [p < 0.05 vs. sporadic P-CAD], 58% [p = 0.07], 21% and 72%, respectively). Overall, only 7 (4%) of 163 of patients with familial P-CAD and 22 (7%) of 326 of patients with sporadic P-CAD had none of these conditions, as compared with 167 (34%) of 489 patients in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Classic, remediable risk factors are highly prevalent in patients with familial P-CAD. Accordingly, a major contribution of genes acting in the absence of these risk factors is unlikely.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors associated with Contegra graft (Medtronic Minneapolis, MN, USA) infection after reconstruction of the right ventricular outflow tract. METHODS: One hundred and six Contegra grafts were implanted between April 1999 and April 2010 for the Ross procedure (n = 46), isolated pulmonary valve replacement (n = 32), tetralogy of Fallot (n = 24), double-outlet right ventricle (n = 7), troncus arteriosus (n = 4), switch operation (n = 1) and redo of pulmonary valve replacement (n = 2). The median age of the patients was 13 years (range 0-54 years). A follow-up was completed in all cases with a median duration of 7.6 years (range 1.7-12.7 years). RESULTS: There were 3 cases of in-hospital mortality. The survival rate during 7 years was 95.7%. Despite the lifelong endocarditis prophylaxis, Contegra graft infection was diagnosed in 12 (11.3%) patients at a median time of 4.4 years (ranging from 0.4 to 8.7 years). Univariate analysis of preoperative, perioperative and postoperative variables was performed and the following risk factors for time to infection were identified: female gender with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.19 (P = 0.042), systemic-to-pulmonary shunt (HR 6.46, P < 0.01), hypothermia (HR 0.79, P = 0.014), postoperative renal insufficiency (HR 11.97, P = 0.015) and implantation of permanent pacemaker during hospitalization (HR 5.29, P = 0.075). In 2 cases, conservative therapy was successful and, in 10 patients, replacement of the infected valve was performed. The Contegra graft was replaced by a homograft in 2 cases and by a new Contegra graft in 8 cases. Cox's proportional hazard model indicated that time to graft infection was significantly associated with tetralogy of Fallot (HR 0.06, P = 0.01), systemic-to-pulmonary shunt (HR 64.71, P < 0.01) and hypothermia (HR 0.77, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Contegra graft infection affected 11.3% of cases in our cohort, and thus may be considered as a frequent entity that can be predicted by both intraoperative and early postoperative factors. After the diagnosis of infection associated with the Contegra graft was confirmed, surgical treatment was the therapy of choice.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

AIMS: To estimate physical activity trajectories for people who quit smoking, and compare them to what would have been expected had smoking continued. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5115 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) study, a population-based study of African American and European American people recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985/6 and followed over 25 years. MEASUREMENTS: Physical activity was self-reported during clinical examinations at baseline (1985/6) and at years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (2010/11); smoking status was reported each year (at examinations or by telephone, and imputed where missing). We used mixed linear models to estimate trajectories of physical activity under varying smoking conditions, with adjustment for participant characteristics and secular trends. FINDINGS: We found significant interactions by race/sex (P = 0.02 for the interaction with cumulative years of smoking), hence we investigated the subgroups separately. Increasing years of smoking were associated with a decline in physical activity in black and white women and black men [e.g. coefficient for 10 years of smoking: -0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 to -0.07, P < 0.001 for white women]. An increase in physical activity was associated with years since smoking cessation in white men (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI = 0 to 0.13, P = 0.05). The physical activity trajectory for people who quit diverged progressively towards higher physical activity from the expected trajectory had smoking continued. For example, physical activity was 34% higher (95% CI = 18 to 52%; P < 0.001) for white women 10 years after stopping compared with continuing smoking for those 10 years (P = 0.21 for race/sex differences). CONCLUSIONS: Smokers who quit have progressively higher levels of physical activity in the years after quitting compared with continuing smokers.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVES: To compare the prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) between immigrant groups and Swiss nationals. METHODS: The Swiss Health Surveys (SHS, N = 49,245) and CoLaus study (N = 6,710) were used. Immigrant groups from France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, former Yugoslavia, other European and other countries were defined. RESULTS: Immigrants from Italy, France, Portugal, Spain and former Yugoslavia presented a higher prevalence of smoking than Swiss nationals. Immigrants reported less hypertension than Swiss nationals, but the differences were reduced when blood pressure measurements were used. The prevalence of dyslipidaemia was similar between immigrants and Swiss nationals in the SHS. When eligibility for statin treatment was assessed, immigrants from Italy were more frequently eligible than Swiss nationals. Immigrants from former Yugoslavia presented a lower prevalence of diabetes in the SHS, but a higher prevalence in the CoLaus study. Most differences between immigrant groups and Swiss nationals disappeared after adjusting for age, leisure-time physical activity, being overweight/obesity and education. CONCLUSIONS: Most CVRFs are unevenly distributed among immigrant groups in Switzerland, but these differences are due to disparities in age, leisure-time physical activity, being overweight/obesity and education.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Objectives: To test if the time of day significantly influences the occurrence of type 4A myocardial infarction in elective patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Background: Recent studies have suggested an influence of circadian rhythms on myocardial infarction size and mortality among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. The aim of the study is to investigate whether periprocedural myocardial infarction (PMI) is influenced by the time of day in elective patients undergoing PCI. Methods: All consecutive patients undergoing elective PCI between 2007 and 2011 at our institutions with known post-interventional troponin were retrospectively included. Patients (n = 1021) were divided into two groups according to the starting time of the PCI: the morning group (n = 651) between 07:00 and 11:59, and the afternoon group (n = 370) between 12:00 and 18:59. Baseline and procedural characteristics as well as clinical outcome defined as the occurrence of PMI were compared between groups. In order to limit selection bias, all analyses were equally performed in 308 pairs using propensity score (PS) matching. Results: In the overall population, the rate of PMI was statistically lower in the morning group compared to the afternoon group (20% vs. 30%, p < 0.001). This difference remained statistically significant after PS-matching (21% vs. 29%, p = 0.03). Multivariate analysis shows that being treated in the afternoon independently increases the risk for PMI with an odds ratio of 2.0 (95%CI: 1.1-3.4; p = 0.02). Conclusions: This observational PS-matched study suggests that the timing of an elective PCI influences the rate of PMI.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background/Objectives:To evaluate the impact of preoperative immunonutrition (IN) on postoperative morbidity in patients at risk of malnutrition undergoing major gastrointestinal (GI) surgery.Subjects/Methods:The combination of malnutrition and major GI surgery entails high morbidity. The Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) reliably identifies patients who need preoperative nutrition; the optimal nutritional formula for these patients still needs to be defined. In all, 152 patients with a NRS3 and undergoing elective major GI surgery were randomized between IN or isocaloric-isonitrogenous nutrition (ICN) given for 5 days preoperatively. Patients and caregivers were blinded for the allocated intervention. Thirty days complication rate was the primary endpoint. Infections, length of hospital stay and compliance were considered as secondary outcomes.Results:Overall, 145 patients were available for analysis; the 73 patients in the IN group matched well with the 72 ICN patients with regards to patient's and surgical characteristics. In all, 39 IN and 33 ICN patients experienced a total of 48 and 50 postoperative complications, respectively (P=0.723). Both groups did not differ significantly concerning infectious (13 vs 9) complications. Independent risk factors for overall complications were malignant disease (odds ratio (OR)=4.304; confidence interval (CI) 1.317-14.002) and operative time (OR=1.004; CI 1.000-1.008).Conclusion:In patients at nutritional risk, complications, infections and hospital stay after major GI surgery were comparable regardless of preoperative supplementation with IN or ICN.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is knownabout its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-timestudents were prompted at random via cellular telephones to report on mood state and threeemotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions valence, arousal, and dominance were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley &Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explainedsignificant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for varianceover and above reason (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessedin a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts.The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data withsimple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided inan Appendix.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets upa model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market togetherwith standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of theeconomy more efficiently, while taking into account that its own actions influencewhat it observes. The timeliness of bond market data allows for quicker responsesof monetary policy to disturbances compared to the case when the central bankhas to rely solely on collected aggregate data. The information content of theterm structure creates a link between the bond market and the macroeconomythat is novel to the literature. To quantify the importance of the bond market asa source of information, the model is estimated on data for the United Statesand Australia using Bayesian methods. The empirical exercise suggests that thereis some information in the US term structure that helps the Federal Reserve toidentify shocks to the economy on a timely basis. Australian bond prices seemto be less informative than their US counterparts, perhaps because Australia is arelatively small and open economy.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.