The analysis of bullwhip effect in a HMMS-type supply chain

The aim of the paper is to investigate the well-known bullwhip effect of supply chains. Control theoretic analysis of bullwhip effect is extensively analyzed in the literature with Laplace transform. This paper tries to examine the effect for an extended Holt-Modigliani-Muth-Simon model. A two-stage supply chain (supplier-manufacturer) is studied with quadratic costs functional. It is assumed that both firms minimize the relevant costs. The order of the manufacturer is delayed with a known constant. Two cases are examined: supplier and manufacturer minimize the relevant costs decentralized, and a centralized decision rule. The question is answered, how to decrease the bullwhip effect.

A hazai kis - és középvállalatok teljesítményét befolyásoló stratégiai orientációk (The effect of strategic orientations on the performance of Hungarian SMEs)

A szerzők 300 magyar kis- és középvállalatot (KKV) tartalmazó mintán vizsgálják a különböző stratégiai orientációk teljesítményre gyakorolt hatását. Ismeretes, hogy a gazdasági környezet változása erősítheti (stimulálhatja), illetve korlátozhatja e kapcsolat szorosságát. Az eredmények alapján elmondható, hogy a modellben alkalmazott stratégiai orientációk közül elsősorban a vállalkozói orientáció és mérsékelt módon az ügyfélkapcsolati orientáció hat pozitívan a KKV-k teljesítményére. Megerősítést nyert az a sejtés, hogy a piaci és az innovációra irányuló orientáció akkor értékelődik fel, ha a környezetben turbulens (gyakran előre jelezhetetlen) erők hatnak. / === / The authors examine the effect of different strategic orientations on business performance on a sample of 300 small and medium sized enterprises (SME) in Hungary. It is widely known that the competitive environment might stimulate or hinder the relationship between strategic orientations and business performance. The results show that out of six strategic orientations the entrepreneurial orientation has the strongest effect on SME performance. Customer relationship orientation is also responsible for the performance development of SMEs, although to a lesser extent. Furthermore, it has been reinforced that market and innovation orientation takes its importance if there are turbulent forces in the environment.

Az ügyfélszerzési mód hatásának vizsgálata a vevőelégedettségre és a lojalitásra a szervezeti piacon (Analyzing the impact of the customer acquisition mode to the customer satisfaction and loyalty on the corporate market – assessing the effect of recommendation with applying structural equation modelling)

A kutatás célja a marketingeszközök hosszú távú hatásának pontosabb megértése szervezetközi viszonylatban a vevőértékelési modellek egyik nehezen számszerűsíthető tényezője, az ajánlás hatásának vizsgálata által. A hatások elemzésére a strukturális egyenlőségek módszerét (Structural Equation Modelling) alkalmazta a szerző. Rámutatott, hogy az ajánlással szerzett ügyfelek elégedettebbek, lojálisabbak és gyakrabban ajánlják a vállalatot a más módon szerzett ügyfeleknél. Az összefüggések feltárása és bizonyítása különösen az ajánlás kumulatív hatása miatt jelentős. Az eredmények gyakorlati alkalmazásával lehetőség nyílik az ügyfélkör differenciáltabb, értékalapú szegmentációjára, amely pontosabb célcsoport-meghatározást lesz lehetővé, és hosszú távon hozzájárul a vállalat optimális ügyfélportfóliójának kialakításához. ______ The research is aimed at more precise understanding of longterm effects of marketing tools in business to business relations by analysing the impacts of recommendation potential, one of the hardly measurable factors of customer value concept. Structural Equation Modelling is applied for conducting effect analysis. The results show that customers acquired with recommendation are more satisfied, more loyal, and make more recommendation that other customer. These results are more interesting if we take the cumulative effect of recommendation in account. They provide bases for a more differentiated segmentation of customers, which results in a more accurate identification of target groups. In the long-run, the application of the customer-value concept considerably contributes to creating an optimal customer portfolio for companies.

A precise measurement of the two -photon exchange effect

The two-photon exchange phenomenon is believed to be responsible for the discrepancy observed between the ratio of proton electric and magnetic form factors, measured by the Rosenbluth and polarization transfer methods. This disagreement is about a factor of three at Q 2 of 5.6 GeV2. The precise knowledge of the proton form factors is of critical importance in understanding the structure of this nucleon. The theoretical models that estimate the size of the two-photon exchange (TPE) radiative correction are poorly constrained. This factor was found to be directly measurable by taking the ratio of the electron-proton and positron-proton elastic scattering cross sections, as the TPE effect changes sign with respect to the charge of the incident particle. A test run of a modified beamline has been conducted with the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) at Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility. This test run demonstrated the feasibility of producing a mixed electron/positron beam of good quality. Extensive simulations performed prior to the run were used to reduce the background rate that limits the production luminosity. A 3.3 GeV primary electron beam was used that resulted in an average secondary lepton beam of 1 GeV. As a result, the elastic scattering data of both lepton types were obtained at scattering angles up to 40 degrees for Q2 up to 1.5 GeV2. The cross section ratio displayed an &epsis; dependence that was Q2 dependent at smaller Q2 limits. The magnitude of the average ratio as a function of &epsis; was consistent with the previous measurements, and the elastic (Blunden) model to within the experimental uncertainties. Ultimately, higher luminosity is needed to extend the data range to lower &epsis; where the TPE effect is predicted to be largest.

The Effect of Sample and Sample Matrix on DNA Processing: Mechanisms for the Detection and Management of Inhibition in Forensic Samples

The presence of inhibitory substances in biological forensic samples has, and continues to affect the quality of the data generated following DNA typing processes. Although the chemistries used during the procedures have been enhanced to mitigate the effects of these deleterious compounds, some challenges remain. Inhibitors can be components of the samples, the substrate where samples were deposited or chemical(s) associated to the DNA purification step. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the extraction processes and their ability to handle the various types of inhibitory substances can help define the best analytical processing for any given sample. A series of experiments were conducted to establish the inhibition tolerance of quantification and amplification kits using common inhibitory substances in order to determine if current laboratory practices are optimal for identifying potential problems associated with inhibition. DART mass spectrometry was used to determine the amount of inhibitor carryover after sample purification, its correlation to the initial inhibitor input in the sample and the overall effect in the results. Finally, a novel alternative at gathering investigative leads from samples that would otherwise be ineffective for DNA typing due to the large amounts of inhibitory substances and/or environmental degradation was tested. This included generating data associated with microbial peak signatures to identify locations of clandestine human graves. Results demonstrate that the current methods for assessing inhibition are not necessarily accurate, as samples that appear inhibited in the quantification process can yield full DNA profiles, while those that do not indicate inhibition may suffer from lowered amplification efficiency or PCR artifacts. The extraction methods tested were able to remove >90% of the inhibitors from all samples with the exception of phenol, which was present in variable amounts whenever the organic extraction approach was utilized. Although the results attained suggested that most inhibitors produce minimal effect on downstream applications, analysts should practice caution when selecting the best extraction method for particular samples, as casework DNA samples are often present in small quantities and can contain an overwhelming amount of inhibitory substances.

The effect of different instructional groupings on student achievement and attitudes from a computer-based interactive videodisk biology unit

The purpose of this research study was to determine the effect of two different instructional groupings (cooperative and traditional whole-class) on student achievement and attitudes using a computer-based interactive videodisc biology unit. The subjects were 64 high school biology students assigned to two heterogeneous experimental groups, randomly selected from two preassigned summer school biology classes, one honors, the other regular. A two-group, posttest-only, control group experimental research design was utilized. Achievement at three cognitive levels and attitudes towards science laserdisc instruction were measured at the conclusion of the study. The cooperative group consistently outperformed the traditional group in achievement posttest scores. Factorial ANOVA on total (overall) achievement scores indicated that subjects in cooperative groups significantly outperformed those in the traditional group, and also that the instructional group, class level, and gender interacted in an ordinal fashion to make a significant difference in how female and male subjects were affected by the treatments depending on their class (aptitude) level. Regular level females and honors level males performed much better when in cooperative groups, whereas group membership did not appear to make a difference for either honors level females or regular level males. A t-test comparing honors level males revealed that cooperative groups were close to being significantly better in total achievement posttest scores than their traditional group counterparts. Factorial MANOVA comparing the instructional groups at three cognitive levels found no significant difference. Analysis on the attitudes posttest data also revealed that subjects in cooperative groups demonstrated more positive attitudes towards science laserdisc instruction; however these differences were not found to be significant. Significant interactions in attitudes of females and males from different class levels had the opposite effect as achievement: honors level females and regular level males demonstrated more positive attitudes towards science laserdisc instruction when in cooperative groups, whereas group membership did not appear to make a difference for honors level males, and regular level females demonstrated the lowest attitudes ratings of any group when involved in cooperative groups. This contrast between achievement and attitudinal results suggests cross-gender interaction in traditionally defined gender roles.

First detection of the Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect increment at λ < 650 μm

The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect is a spectral distortion of the cosmic microwave background as observed through the hot plasma in galaxy clusters. This distortion is a decrement in the CMB intensity for λ > 1.3 mm, an increment at shorter wavelengths, and small again by λ ~ 250 μm. As part of the Herschel Lensing Survey (HLS) we have mapped 1E0657–56 (the Bullet cluster) with SPIRE with bands centered at 250, 350 and 500 μm and have detected the SZ effect at the two longest wavelengths. The measured SZ effect increment central intensities are ΔI_0 = 0.097 ± 0.019 MJy sr^-1 at 350 μm and ΔI_0 = 0.268 ± 0.031 MJy sr^-1 at 500 μm, consistent with the SZ effect spectrum derived from previous measurements at 2 mm. No other diffuse emission is detected. The presence of the finite temperature SZ effect correction is preferred by the SPIRE data at a significance of 2.1σ, opening the possibility that the relativistic SZ effect correction can be constrained by SPIRE in a sample of clusters. The results presented here have important ramifications for both sub-mm measurements of galaxy clusters and blank field surveys with SPIRE.

A comparative study: long and short term effect of a nutrition sensitive approach to delay the progression of HIV to AIDS among people living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria

Background: Malnutrition has a negative impact on optimal immune function, thus increasing susceptibility to morbidity and mortality among HIV positive patients. Evidence indicates that the prevalence of macro and micronutrient deficiencies (particularly magnesium, selenium, zinc, and vitamin C) has a negative impact on optimal immune function, through the progressive depletion of CD4 T-lymphocyte cells, which thereby increases susceptibility to morbidity and mortality among PLWH. Objective: To assess the short and long term effects of a nutrition sensitive intervention to delay the progression of human immune-deficiency virus (HIV) to AIDS among people living with HIV in Abuja, Nigeria. Methods: A randomized control trial was carried out on 400 PLWH (adult, male and female of different religious background) in Nigeria between January and December 2012. Out of these 400 participants, 100 were randomly selected for the pilot study, which took place over six months (January to June, 2012). The participants in the pilot study overlapped to form part of the scale-up participants (n 400) monitored from June to December 2012. The comparative effect of daily 354.92 kcal/d optimized meals consumed for six and twelve months was ascertained through the nutritional status and biochemical indices of the study participants (n=100 pilot interventions), who were and were not taking the intervention meal. The meal consisted of: Glycine max 50g (Soya bean); Pennisetum americanum 20g (Millet); Moringa oleifera 15g (Moringa); Daucus carota spp. sativa 15g (Carrot). Results: At the end of sixth month intervention, mean CD4 cell count (cell/mm3) for Pre-ART and ART Test groups increased by 6.31% and 12.12% respectively. Mean mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) for Pre-ART and ART Test groups increased by 2.72% and 2.52% within the same period (n 400). Comparatively, participants who overlapped from pilot to scale-up intervention (long term use, n 100) were assessed for 12 months. Mean CD4 cell count (cell/mm3) for Pre-ART and ART test groups increased by 2.21% and 12.14%. Mean MUAC for Pre-ART and ART test groups increased by 2.08% and 3.95% respectively. Moreover, student’s t-test analysis suggests a strong association between the intervention meal, MUAC, and CD4 count on long term use of optimized meal in the group of participants being treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) (P<0.05). Conclusion: Although the achieved results take the form of specific technology, it suggests that a prolong consumption of the intervention meal will be suitable to sustain the gained improvements in the anthropometric and biochemical indices of PLWHIV in Nigeria.

Influences and advice of theatrical consumption. A study about the effect of the theatre critics and other instances of evaluation in the habits of theatre attendance

This article analyses the influence that different criticism stages of proceedings exert in the habits of theatre attendance. The study is based on the survey carried out specifically for this research in which 210 people, who attended a theatrical representation, were interviewed in three different theatres in the city of Valencia. The study has revealed the mouth to mouth importance in the decision of attending the theatre and its stronger influence on the audiences who less frequently go to theatrical representations. The results obtained have also made clear the existence of a narrow relation between the advice effect of the theatre critics and the patterns of attendance to the theatre, just like its bigger influence between theatres with commercial orientation and those which are addressed to the broad audiences.

The Effect of Water Consumption on Schoolchildren's Fine Motor Skills, Cognitive Function and Mood

Previous research has suggested that dehydration may have a negative effect on some aspects of mood, cognitive performance and motor skills (Benton, 2011). Furthermore, a large proportion of children arrive at school in a dehydrated state (Baron, Courbebaisse, Lepicard, & Friedlander, 2015). The present work investigated whether supplementing children with water may, as a consequence of reducing dehydration, improve their cognitive performance and motor skills. In studies 1, 2, 3 and 5, it was found that tasks that predominantly tested motor skills, were improved in children who had a drink, compared to those who did not. Furthermore, study 3 showed that this effect was moderated by hydration status. One theoretical explanation for the poorer performance of dehydrated children is that they may lack the neurological resources to sustain their effort and thus performance does not improve over time. In support of this, these studies showed that, when re-hydrated, performance on these tasks improves to the level of non-dehydrated children. Study 2 showed that the number of errors increased in a StopSignal task in children that had high self-rated levels of thirst, compared to low levels: and hydration status did not moderate this effect. A possible explanation for the increased number of errors in children with high self-rated thirst is that the thirst sensation diverts attention away from the task, causing task performance to deteriorate. In study 4, it was observed that there was a large variation in intra-individual and inter-individual hydration scores throughout the day, which was not related to volume drank or levels of thirst. Further studies should use imaging techniques to study brain activity during dehydration and rehydration, and during periods of high thirst, to help to further elucidate the mechanism underlying the negative effect of dehydration on motor performance, and the effect of self-rated thirst on attention.

The effect of poly(lactide)-poly(carbonate) based block copolymers on the morphology and crystallization of double crystalline poly(lactide)/poly(ε-caprolactone) blends

Block copolymers of poly(lactide) and poly(carbonate) were synthetized in three different compositions and characterized by 1H-NMR and ATR analyses. The compatibilization effect of this copolymers on 80/20 (w/w%) PLA/PCL blend was evaluated. SEM micrographs show that all the blends exhibit the typical sea-island morphology characteristic of immiscible blends with PCL finely dispersed in droplets on a PLA matrix. Upon the addiction of the copolymers a reduction on PCL droplets size is observable. At the same time, a Tg depression of the PLA phase is detected when the copolymers are added in the blend. These results indicate that these copolymers are effective as compatibilizers. The copolymer that acts as the best compatibilizer is the one characterized by the same amount of PLA and PC as repeating units. As result, in the blend containing this copolymer PLA phase exhibits the highest spherulitic growth rate. An analyses on PLA phase crystallization behaviour from the glassy state within the blends was evaluated by DSC experiments. Isothermal cold crystallization of the PLA phase is enhanced up an order of magnitude upon the blending with PCL. Annealing experiments demonstrated that the crystallization of the PCL phase induces the formation of active nuclei in PLA when cooled above cooled below Tg. When the crystallization rate of PCL is retarded, a reduction on PLA nucleation is observed.

How to deal with uncertainties regarding the occupational exposure to antineoplastic mixtures: additive effect should always be considered?

Risk assessment considerations - The concept that “safe levels of exposure” for humans can be identified for individual chemicals is central to the risk assessment of compounds with known toxicological profiles. Selection of agents for combination chemotherapy regimens involves minimize overlapping of mechanisms of action, antitumor activity and toxicity profile. Although the toxicological profile and mechanism of action of each individual drug is well characterized, the toxicological interactions between drugs are likely, but poorly established at occupational exposure context. The synergistic nature of interactions may help in understanding the adverse health effects observed in healthcare workers, where exposure situations are characterized by complex mixtures of chemical agents, and the levels of individual exposing agents are often not sufficiently high to explain the health complaints. However, if a substance is a genotoxic carcinogen, this would be the “lead effect”; normally, no OEL based on a NOEL would be derived and the level would be set so low that it would be unlikely that other effects would be expected. Aim of the study - Recently research project developed in Portuguese Hospitals characterize the occupational exposure to antineoplastic agents and the health effects related. The project aimed to assess exposure of the different risk groups that handle antineoplastic agents in the hospital setting, namely during preparation and administration of these drugs. Here it is presented and discussed the results in a study developed in two hospitals from Lisbon.

The effect of dissolved magnesium on diffusion creep in calcite

We experimentally tested a series of synthetic calcite marbles with varying amounts of dissolved magnesium in a standard triaxial deformation machine at 300 MPa confining pressure, temperatures between 700 and 850°C, stresses between 2 and 100 MPa, and strain rates between 10−7 and 10−3 s−1. The samples were fabricated by hot isostatic pressing of a mixture of calcite and dolomite at 850°C and 300 MPa. The fabrication protocol resulted in a homogeneous, fine-grained high-magnesian calcite aggregate with minimal porosity and with magnesium contents between 0.07 and 0.17 mol% MgCO3. At stresses below 40 MPa the samples deformed with linear viscosity that depended inversely on grain size to the 3.26±0.51 power, suggesting that the mechanisms of deformation were some combination of grain boundary diffusion and grain boundary sliding. Because small grain sizes tended to occur in the high-magnesium calcite, the strength also appeared to vary inversely with magnesium content. However, the strength at constant grain size does not depend on the amount of dissolved magnesium, and thus, the impurity effect seems to be indirect. At stresses higher than 40 MPa, the aggregates become non-linearly viscous, a regime we interpret to be dislocation creep. The transition between the two regimes depends on grain size, as expected. The activation energy for diffusion creep is 200±30 kJ/mol and is quite similar to previous measurements in natural and synthetic marbles deformed at similar conditions with no added magnesium.

A study on the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand

In this thesis, we study the causal relationship between functional distribution of income and economic growth. In particular, we focus on some of the aspects that might alter the effect of the profit share on growth. After a brief introduction and literature review, the empirical contributions will be presented in Chapters 3,4 and 5. Chapter 3 analyses the effect of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share among countries that are major trade partners. Falling wage share and wage moderation are a global phenomenon which are hardly opposed by governments. This is because lower wages are associated with lower export prices and, therefore, have a positive effect on net-exports. There is, however, a fallacy of composition problem: not all countries can improve their balance of payments contemporaneously. Studying the country members of the North America Free Trade Agreement, we find that the effect on export of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share in Mexico, Canada and the United States, is negative in all countries. In other words, the competitive advantage that each country gains because of a reduction in its wage share (to which is associated a decrease in export prices), is offset by a contemporaneous increase in competitiveness in the other two countries. Moreover, we find that NAFTA is overall wage-led: the profit share has a negative effect on aggregate demand. Chapter 4 tests whether it is possible that the effect of the profit share on growth is different in the long run and in the short run. Following Blecker (2014) our hypothesis is that in the short run the growth regime is less wage-led than it is in the long run. The results of our empirical investigation support this hypothesis, at least for the United States over the period 1950-2014. The effect of wages on consumption increases more than proportionally compared to the effect of profits on consumption from the short to the long run. Moreover, consumer debt seem to have only a short-run effect on consumption indicating that in the long run, when debt has to be repaid, consumption depends more on the level of income and on how it is distributed. Regarding investment, the effect of capacity utilization is always larger than the effect of the profit share and that the difference between the two effects is higher in the long run than in the short run. This confirms the hypothesis that in the long run, unless there is an increase in demand, it is likely that firms are not going to increase investments even in the presence of high profits. In addition, the rentier share of profits – that comprises dividends and interest payments – has a long-run negative effect on investment. In the long run rentiers divert firms’ profits from investment and, therefore, it weakens the effect of profits on investment. Finally, Chapter 5 studies the possibility of structural breaks in the relationship between functional distribution of income and growth. We argue that, from the 1980s, financialization and the European exchange rate agreements weakened the positive effect of the profit share on growth in Italy. The growth regime is therefore becoming less profit-led and more wage-led. Our results confirm this hypothesis and also shed light on the concept of cooperative and conflictual regimes as defined by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990).

Effect of the synthetic coumarin, ethyl 2-oxo-2H-chromene-3-carboxylate, on activity of Crotalus durissus ruruima sPLA2 as well as on edema and platelet aggregation induced by this factor

We show that ethyl 2-oxo-2H-chromene-3-carboxylate (EOCC), a synthetic coumarin, irreversibly inhibits phospholipase A(2) (sPLA2) from Crotalus durissus ruruima venom (sPLA2r) with an IC(50) of 3.1 +/- 0.06 nmol. EOCC strongly decreased the V(max) and K(m), and it virtually abolished the enzyme activity of sPLA2r as well as sPLA2s from other sources. The edema induced by 5PLA2r + EOCC was less than that induced by 5PLA2r treated with p-bromophenacyl bromide, which was more efficient at neutralizing the platelet aggregation activity of native 5PLA2r. Native 5PLA2r induced platelet aggregation of 91.54 +/- 9.3%, and sPLA2r +/- EOCC induced a platelet aggregation of 18.56 +/- 6.5%. EOCC treatment also decreased the myotoxic effect of sPLA2r. Mass spectrometry showed that EOCC formed a stable complex with sPLA2r, which increased the mass of native 5PLA2r from 14,299.34 da to 14,736.22 Da. Moreover, the formation of this complex appeared to be involved in the loss of 5PLA2r activity. Our results strongly suggest that EOCC can be used as a pharmacological agent against the 5PLA2 in Crotalus durissus sp. venom as well as other sPLA2s. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.