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Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

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Multibeam data were measured during R/V SONNE cruise SO202 (INOPEX) along track lines of 6938 NM total length in the North Pacific and Bering Sea during transits and stationary work. Starting from Hokkaido (Japan) data were achieved east of the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench and south of the Aleutian Trench. The track crosses the Bowers Ridge, the continental margin of Alaska and the Umnak Plateau in the Bering Sea. Further data were gained in the North Pacific in the area of the Patton Seamounts, Gibson Seamount, Hess Rise and Shatsky Rise. The multibeam sonar system Simrad EM 120 from Kongsberg was operated using 191 beams and an aperture angle of 90° to 140° due to particular conditions. The refraction correction was achieved utilizing 6 CTD profiles measured during the cruise and one from cruise SO201. The quality of data might be reduced during bad weather periods. The dataset contains raw data that are not processed and thus may contain errors and blunders in depth and position.