Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade

This paper examines the impact of major disasters on import and export flows using a gravity model (170 countries, 1962–2004). As a conservative estimate, an additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0.2% and exports by 0.1%. Despite the apparent persistence of bilateral trade volumes, we find that the driving forces determining the impact of disastrous events are the level of democracy and the geographical size of the affected country. The less democratic and the smaller a country the greater is its loss due to a catastrophe. In autocracies, exports and imports are significantly reduced. Had Togo been struck by a major disaster in 2000, it would have lost 6.2% of its imports and 3.7% of its exports. While democratic countries' exports suffer identical decreases, imports increase.

Validity of the ice shelf water plume concept beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf

In winter, brine rejection from sea ice formation and export in the Weddell Sea, offshore of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), leads to the formation of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW). This dense water mass enters the cavity beneath FRIS by sinking southward down the sloping continental shelf towards the grounding line. Melting occurs when the HSSW encounters the ice shelf, and the meltwater released cools and freshens the HSSW to form a water mass known as Ice Shelf Water (ISW). If this ISW rises, the ‘ice pump’ is initiated (Lewis and Perkin, 1986), whereby the ascending ISW becomes supercooled and deposits marine ice at shallower locations due to the pressure increase in the in-situ freezing temperature. Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) were able to infer the thickness patterns of marine ice deposits at the base of FRIS (figure 1), so the primary aim of this work is to try to understand the ocean flows that determine these patterns. The plume model we use to investigate ISW flow is described fully by Holland and Feltham (accepted) so only a relatively brief outline is presented here. The plume is simulated by combining a parameterisation of ice shelf basal interaction and a multiplesize- class frazil dynamics model with an unsteady, depth-averaged reduced-gravity plume model. In the model an active region of ISW evolves above and within an expanse of stagnant ambient fluid, which is considered to be ice-free and has fixed profiles of temperature and salinity. The two main assumptions of the model are that there is a well-mixed layer underneath the ice shelf and that the ambient fluid outside the plume is stagnant with fixed properties. The topography of the ice shelf that the plume flows beneath is set to the FRIS ice shelf draft calculated by Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) masked with the grounding line from the Antarctic Digital Database (ADD Consortium, 2002). To initiate the plumes, we assume that the intrusion of dense HSSW initially causes melting at the points on the grounding line where the glaciological tributaries feeding FRIS go afloat.

A comparison of GOCE and drifter-based estimates of the North Atlantic steady-state surface circulation

Over the last decade, due to the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and, more recently, the Gravity and steady state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission, our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space has improved dramatically. Here we use GOCE to measure surface current speeds in the North Atlantic and compare our results with a range of independent estimates that use drifter data to improve small scales. We find that, with filtering, GOCE can recover 70% of the Gulf Steam strength relative to the best drifter-based estimates. In the subpolar gyre the boundary currents obtained from GOCE are close to the drifter-based estimates. Crucial to this result is careful filtering which is required to remove small-scale errors, or noise, in the computed surface. We show that our heuristic noise metric, used to determine the degree of filtering, compares well with the quadratic sum of mean sea surface and formal geoid errors obtained from the error variance–covariance matrix associated with the GOCE gravity model. At a resolution of 100 km the North Atlantic mean GOCE MDT error before filtering is 5 cm with almost all of this coming from the GOCE gravity model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent: scale interactions and modelling

The Maritime Continent archipelago, situated on the equator at 95-165E, has the strongest land-based precipitation on Earth. The latent heat release associated with the rainfall affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and into the extra-tropics. The greatest source of variability in precipitation is the diurnal cycle. The archipelago is within the convective region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which provides the greatest variability on intra-seasonal time scales: large-scale (∼10^7 km^2) active and suppressed convective envelopes propagate slowly (∼5 m s^-1) eastwards between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High-resolution satellite data show that a strong diurnal cycle is triggered to the east of the advancing MJO envelope, leading the active MJO by one-eighth of an MJO cycle (∼6 days). Where the diurnal cycle is strong its modulation accounts for 81% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Over land this determines the structure of the diagnosed MJO. This is consistent with the equatorial wave dynamics in existing theories of MJO propagation. The MJO also affects the speed of gravity waves propagating offshore from the Maritime Continent islands. This is largely consistent with changes in static stability during the MJO cycle. The MJO and its interaction with the diurnal cycle are investigated in HiGEM, a high-resolution coupled model. Unlike many models, HiGEM represents the MJO well with eastward-propagating variability on intra-seasonal time scales at the correct zonal wavenumber, although the inter-tropical convergence zone's precipitation peaks strongly at the wrong time, interrupting the MJO's spatial structure. However, the modelled diurnal cycle is too weak and its phase is too early over land. The modulation of the diurnal amplitude by the MJO is also too weak and accounts for only 51% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Implications for forecasting and possible causes of the model errors are discussed, and further modelling studies are proposed.

How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space?

Recent gravity missions have produced a dramatic improvement in our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space. To fully exploit this oceanic observation, however, we must quantify its error. To establish a baseline, we first assess the error budget for an MDT calculated using a 3rd generation GOCE geoid and the CLS01 mean sea surface (MSS). With these products, we can resolve MDT spatial scales down to 250 km with an accuracy of 1.7 cm, with the MSS and geoid making similar contributions to the total error. For spatial scales within the range 133–250 km the error is 3.0 cm, with the geoid making the greatest contribution. For the smallest resolvable spatial scales (80–133 km) the total error is 16.4 cm, with geoid error accounting for almost all of this. Relative to this baseline, the most recent versions of the geoid and MSS fields reduce the long and short-wavelength errors by 0.9 and 3.2 cm, respectively, but they have little impact in the medium-wavelength band. The newer MSS is responsible for most of the long-wavelength improvement, while for the short-wavelength component it is the geoid. We find that while the formal geoid errors have reasonable global mean values they fail capture the regional variations in error magnitude, which depend on the steepness of the sea floor topography.

Impact of non-hydrostatic effects and trapped lee waves on mountain wave drag in directionally sheared flow

The orographic gravity wave drag produced in flow over an axisymmetric mountain when both vertical wind shear and non-hydrostatic effects are important was calculated using a semi-analytical two-layer linear model, including unidirectional or directional constant wind shear in a layer near the surface, above which the wind is constant. The drag behaviour is determined by partial wave reflection at the shear discontinuity, wave absorption at critical levels (both of which exist in hydrostatic flow), and total wave reflection at levels where the waves become evanescent (an intrinsically non-hydrostatic effect), which produces resonant trapped lee wave modes. As a result of constructive or destructive wave interference, the drag oscillates with the thickness of the constant-shear layer and the Richardson number within it (Ri), generally decreasing at low Ri and when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic. Critical level absorption, which increases with the angle spanned by the wind velocity in the constant-shear layer, shields the surface from reflected waves, keeping the drag closer to its hydrostatic limit. While, for the parameter range considered here, the drag seldom exceeds this limit, a substantial drag fraction may be produced by trapped lee waves, particularly when the flow is strongly non-hydrostatic, the lower layer is thick and Ri is relatively high. In directionally sheared flows with Ri = O(1), the drag may be misaligned with the surface wind in a direction opposite to the shear, a behaviour which is totally due to non-trapped waves. The trapped lee wave drag, whose reaction force on the atmosphere is felt at low levels, may therefore have a distinctly different direction from the drag associated with vertically propagating waves, which acts on the atmosphere at higher levels.

Effects of a mid-latitude solar eclipse on the thermosphere and ionosphere: a modelling study

A modelling study is presented which investigates in-situ generated changes of the thermosphere and ionosphere during a solar eclipse. Neutral temperatures are expected to drop by up to 40 degrees K at 240 km height in the totality footprint, with neutral winds of up to 26 m/s responding to the change of pressure. Both temperatures and winds are found to respond with a time lag of 30 min after the passing of the Moon's shadow. A gravity wave is generated in the neutral atmosphere and propagates into the opposite hemisphere at around 300 m/s. The combined effects of thermal cooling and downwelling lead to an overall increase in [O], while [N(2)] initially rises and then for several hours after the eclipse is below the "steady state" level. An enhancement of [NmF2] is found and explained by the atmosphere's contraction during, and the reduced [O]/[N(2)] ratio after the eclipse.

Association between sucrose intake and risk of overweight and obesity in a prospective sub-cohort of EPIC-Norfolk

Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate associations between sugar intake and overweight using dietary biomarkers in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). Design: Prospective cohort study Setting: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) in the UK, recruitment between 1993 and 1997. Subjects: 1734 participants (39 – 77 years). Sucrose intake was assessed using 7-day diaries. Baseline spot urine samples were analysed for sucrose by GC-MS. Sucrose concentration adjusted by specific gravity was used as biomarker for intake. Regression analyses were used to investigate associations between sucrose intake and risk of BMI > 25 kg/m2 after three years of follow-up. Results: After three years of follow-up, mean BMI was 26.8 kg/m2. Self-reported sucrose intake was significantly positively associated with biomarker. Associations between biomarker and BMI were positive (β=0.25; 95% CI: 0.08; 0.43), while they were inverse when using self-reported dietary data (β=-1.40; 95% CI: -1.81; -0.99). Age- and sex-adjusted OR for BMI > 25 kg/m2 in participants in the fifth vs. first quintile was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.12; 2.12; pTrend=0.003,) when using biomarker and 0.56 (95% CI: 0.40; 0.77; pTrend<0.001) with self-reported dietary data. Conclusions: Our results suggest that sucrose measured by objective biomarker but not self-reported sucrose intake is positively associated with body mass index. Future studies should consider use of objective biomarkers of sucrose intake.

The effect of the equivalent-weights particle filter on dynamical balance in a primitive equation model

The disadvantage of the majority of data assimilation schemes is the assumption that the conditional probability density function of the state of the system given the observations [posterior probability density function (PDF)] is distributed either locally or globally as a Gaussian. The advantage, however, is that through various different mechanisms they ensure initial conditions that are predominantly in linear balance and therefore spurious gravity wave generation is suppressed. The equivalent-weights particle filter is a data assimilation scheme that allows for a representation of a potentially multimodal posterior PDF. It does this via proposal densities that lead to extra terms being added to the model equations and means the advantage of the traditional data assimilation schemes, in generating predominantly balanced initial conditions, is no longer guaranteed. This paper looks in detail at the impact the equivalent-weights particle filter has on dynamical balance and gravity wave generation in a primitive equation model. The primary conclusions are that (i) provided the model error covariance matrix imposes geostrophic balance, then each additional term required by the equivalent-weights particle filter is also geostrophically balanced; (ii) the relaxation term required to ensure the particles are in the locality of the observations has little effect on gravity waves and actually induces a reduction in gravity wave energy if sufficiently large; and (iii) the equivalent-weights term, which leads to the particles having equivalent significance in the posterior PDF, produces a change in gravity wave energy comparable to the stochastic model error. Thus, the scheme does not produce significant spurious gravity wave energy and so has potential for application in real high-dimensional geophysical applications.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.

What is the shape of an air bubble on a liquid surface?

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric meniscus along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat liquid surface, by analytically integrating the Young-Laplace equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of large Bond numbers. This method has the advantage that it provides semi-analytical expressions for key geometrical properties of the bubble in terms of the Bond number. Results are in good overall agreement with experimental data and are consistent with fully numerical (Surface Evolver) calculations. In particular, we are able to describe how the bubble shape changes from hemispherical, with a shallow flat bottom, to lenticular, with a deeper, curved bottom, as the Bond number is decreased.

Comparison of terrain following and cut cell grids using a non-hydrostatic model

Terrain following coordinates are widely used in operational models but the cut cell method has been proposed as an alternative that can more accurately represent atmospheric dynamics over steep orography. Because the type of grid is usually chosen during model implementation, it becomes necessary to use different models to compare the accuracy of different grids. In contrast, here a C-grid finite volume model enables a like-for-like comparison of terrain following and cut cell grids. A series of standard two-dimensional tests using idealised terrain are performed: tracer advection in a prescribed horizontal velocity field, a test starting from resting initial conditions, and orographically induced gravity waves described by nonhydrostatic dynamics. In addition, three new tests are formulated: a more challenging resting atmosphere case, and two new advection tests having a velocity field that is everywhere tangential to the terrain following coordinate surfaces. These new tests present a challenge on cut cell grids. The results of the advection tests demonstrate that accuracy depends primarily upon alignment of the flow with the grid rather than grid orthogonality. A resting atmosphere is well-maintained on all grids. In the gravity waves test, results on all grids are in good agreement with existing results from the literature, although terrain following velocity fields lead to errors on cut cell grids. Due to semi-implicit timestepping and an upwind-biased, explicit advection scheme, there are no timestep restrictions associated with small cut cells. We do not find the significant advantages of cut cells or smoothed coordinates that other authors find.

The longitudinal variation of equatorial waves due to propagation on a varying zonal flow

The general 1-D theory of waves propagating on a zonally varying flow is developed from basic wave theory, and equations are derived for the variation of wavenumber and energy along ray paths. Different categories of behaviour are found, depending on the sign of the group velocity (cg) and a wave property, B. For B positive the wave energy and the wave number vary in the same sense, with maxima in relative easterlies or westerlies, depending on the sign of cg. Also the wave accumulation of Webster and Chang (1988) occurs where cg goes to zero. However for B negative they behave in opposite senses and wave accumulation does not occur. The zonal propagation of the gravest equatorial waves is analysed in detail using the theory. For non-dispersive Kelvin waves, B reduces to 2, and analytic solution is possible. B is positive for all the waves considered, except for the westward moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) wave which can have negative as well as positive B. Comparison is made between the observed climatologies of the individual equatorial waves and the result of pure propagation on the climatological upper tropospheric flow. The Kelvin wave distribution is in remarkable agreement, considering the approximations made. Some aspects of the WMRG and Rossby wave distributions are also in qualitative agreement. However the observed maxima in these waves in the winter westerlies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic are not consistent with the theory. This is consistent with the importance of the sources of equatorial waves in these westerly duct regions due to higher latitude wave activity.

Earth's ion upflow associated with polar cap patches: global and in-situ observations

We report simultaneous global monitoring of a patch of ionization and in situ observation of ion upflow at the center of the polar cap region during a geomagnetic storm. Our observations indicate strong fluxes of upwelling O+ ions originating from frictional heating produced by rapid antisunward flow of the plasma patch. The statistical results from the crossings of the central polar cap region by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16–F18 from 2010 to 2013 confirm that the field-aligned flow can turn upward when rapid antisunward flows appear, with consequent significant frictional heating of the ions, which overcomes the gravity effect. We suggest that such rapidly moving patches can provide an important source of upwelling ions in a region where downward flows are usually expected. These observations give new insight into the processes of ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 2: Comparison over non-uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.