Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Simulations in evolution. II. Relative fitness and the propagation of mutants.

In Neo-Darwinism, variation and natural selection are the two evolutionary mechanisms which propel biological evolution. Our previous article presented a histogram model [1] consisting in populations of individuals whose number changed under the influence of variation and/or fitness, the total population remaining constant. Individuals are classified into bins, and the content of each bin is calculated generation after generation by an Excel spreadsheet. Here, we apply the histogram model to a stable population with fitness F(1)=1.00 in which one or two fitter mutants emerge. In a first scenario, a single mutant emerged in the population whose fitness was greater than 1.00. The simulations ended when the original population was reduced to a single individual. The histogram model was validated by excellent agreement between its predictions and those of a classical continuous function (Eqn. 1) which predicts the number of generations needed for a favorable mutation to spread throughout a population. But in contrast to Eqn. 1, our histogram model is adaptable to more complex scenarios, as demonstrated here. In the second and third scenarios, the original population was present at time zero together with two mutants which differed from the original population by two higher and distinct fitness values. In the fourth scenario, the large original population was present at time zero together with one fitter mutant. After a number of generations, when the mutant offspring had multiplied, a second mutant was introduced whose fitness was even greater. The histogram model also allows Shannon entropy (SE) to be monitored continuously as the information content of the total population decreases or increases. The results of these simulations illustrate, in a graphically didactic manner, the influence of natural selection, operating through relative fitness, in the emergence and dominance of a fitter mutant.

Carcinome de Merket: (r)évolution [Merkel cell carcinoma: (r)evolution].

Merkel Cell Carcinoma (CCM) is an aggressive cutaneous tumor of the elderly, which has become the second cause of mortality linked to skin cancer. This has led clinicians and scientists to devote more time to the study of this rare tumor, announcing to a revolution in our understanding, diagnosis and therapy of this cancer. We present here these recent advances, which illustrate the exponential growth of knowledge in the medical field, drawing comparisons with more frequent cancers such as melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma.

The fossil record and evolution of freshwater plants: A review

Palaeobotany applied to freshwater plants is an emerging field of palaeontology. Hydrophytic plants reveal evolutionary trends of their own, clearly distinct from those of the terrestrial and marine flora. During the Precambrian, two groups stand out in the fossil record of freshwater plants: the Cyanobacteria (stromatolites) in benthic environments and the prasinophytes (leiosphaeridian acritarchs) in transitional planktonic environments. During the Palaeozoic, green algae (Chlorococcales, Zygnematales, charophytes and some extinct groups) radiated and developed the widest range of morphostructural patterns known for these groups. Between the Permian and Early Cretaceous, charophytes dominated macrophytic associations, with the consequence that over tens of millions of years, freshwater flora bypassed the dominance of vascular plants on land. During the Early Cretaceous, global extension of the freshwater environments is associated with diversification of the flora, including new charophyte families and the appearance of aquatic angiosperms and ferns for the first time. Mesozoic planktonic assemblages retained their ancestral composition that was dominated by coenobial Chlorococcales, until the appearance of freshwater dinoflagellates in the Early Cretaceous. In the Late Cretaceous, freshwater angiosperms dominated almost all macrophytic communities worldwide. The Tertiary was characterised by the diversification of additional angiosperm and aquatic fern lineages, which resulted in the first differentiation of aquatic plant biogeoprovinces. Phytoplankton also diversified during the Eocene with the development of freshwater diatoms and chrysophytes. Diatoms, which were exclusively marine during tens of millions of years, were dominant over the Chlorococcales during Neogene and in later assemblages. During the Quaternary, aquatic plant communities suffered from the effects of eutrophication, paludification and acidification, which were the result of the combined impact of glaciation and anthropogenic disturbance.

Origin of a restraining bend in an evolving strike-slip system: The Cenozoic As Pontes basin (NW Spain)

The As Pontes basin (12 km2), NW Iberian Peninsula, is bounded by a double restraining bend of a dextral strike-slip fault, which is related to the western onshore end of the Pyrenean belt. Surface and subsurface data obtained from intensive coal exploration and mining in the basin since the 1960s together with additional structural and stratigraphic sequence analysis allowed us to determine the geometric relationships between tectonic structures and stratigraphic markers. The small size of the basin and the large amount of quality data make the As Pontes basin a unique natural laboratory for improving our understanding of the origin and evolution of restraining bends. The double restraining bend is the end stage of the structural evolution of a compressive underlapping stepover, where the basin was formed. During the first stage (stepover stage), which began ca. 30 Ma ago (latest Rupelian) and lasted 3.4 My, two small isolated basins bounded by thrusts and normal faults were formed. For 1.3 My, the strike-slip faults, which defined the stepover, grew towards each other until joining and forming the double restraining bend, which bounds one large As Pontes basin (transition stage). The history of the basin was controlled by the activity of the double restraining bend for a further 3.4 My (restraining bend stage) and ended in mid-Aquitanian times (ca. 22 Ma).

Selection methods regulate evolution of cooperation in digital evolution.

A key, yet often neglected, component of digital evolution and evolutionary models is the 'selection method' which assigns fitness (number of offspring) to individuals based on their performance scores (efficiency in performing tasks). Here, we study with formal analysis and numerical experiments the evolution of cooperation under the five most common selection methods (proportionate, rank, truncation-proportionate, truncation-uniform and tournament). We consider related individuals engaging in a Prisoner's Dilemma game where individuals can either cooperate or defect. A cooperator pays a cost, whereas its partner receives a benefit, which affect their performance scores. These performance scores are translated into fitness by one of the five selection methods. We show that cooperation is positively associated with the relatedness between individuals under all selection methods. By contrast, the change in the performance benefit of cooperation affects the populations' average level of cooperation only under the proportionate methods. We also demonstrate that the truncation and tournament methods may introduce negative frequency-dependence and lead to the evolution of polymorphic populations. Using the example of the evolution of cooperation, we show that the choice of selection method, though it is often marginalized, can considerably affect the evolutionary dynamics.

Characterization of gravitational rock slope deformations at different spatial scales based on field, remote sensing and numerical approaches

Rock slope instabilities such as rock slides, rock avalanche or deep-seated gravitational slope deformations are widespread in Alpine valleys. These phenomena represent at the same time a main factor that control the mountain belts erosion and also a significant natural hazard that creates important losses to the mountain communities. However, the potential geometrical and dynamic connections linking outcrop and slope-scale instabilities are often unknown. A more detailed definition of the potential links will be essential to improve the comprehension of the destabilization processes and to dispose of a more complete hazard characterization of the rock instabilities at different spatial scales. In order to propose an integrated approach in the study of the rock slope instabilities, three main themes were analysed in this PhD thesis: (1) the inventory and the spatial distribution of rock slope deformations at regional scale and their influence on the landscape evolution, (2) the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on rock slope instabilities development and (3) the characterization of hazard posed by potential rock slope instabilities through the development of conceptual instability models. To prose and integrated approach for the analyses of these topics, several techniques were adopted. In particular, high resolution digital elevation models revealed to be fundamental tools that were employed during the different stages of the rock slope instability assessment. A special attention was spent in the application of digital elevation model for detailed geometrical modelling of past and potential instabilities and for the rock slope monitoring at different spatial scales. Detailed field analyses and numerical models were performed to complete and verify the remote sensing approach. In the first part of this thesis, large slope instabilities in Rhone valley (Switzerland) were mapped in order to dispose of a first overview of tectonic and climatic factors influencing their distribution and their characteristics. Our analyses demonstrate the key influence of neotectonic activity and the glacial conditioning on the spatial distribution of the rock slope deformations. Besides, the volumes of rock instabilities identified along the main Rhone valley, were then used to propose the first estimate of the postglacial denudation and filling of the Rhone valley associated to large gravitational movements. In the second part of the thesis, detailed structural analyses of the Frank slide and the Sierre rock avalanche were performed to characterize the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on the geometry and on the failure mechanism of large instabilities. Our observations indicated that the geometric characteristics and the variation of the rock mass quality associated to ductile tectonic structures, that are often ignored landslide study, represent important factors that can drastically influence the extension and the failure mechanism of rock slope instabilities. In the last part of the thesis, the failure mechanisms and the hazard associated to five potential instabilities were analysed in detail. These case studies clearly highlighted the importance to incorporate different analyses and monitoring techniques to dispose of reliable and hazard scenarios. This information associated to the development of a conceptual instability model represents the primary data for an integrated risk management of rock slope instabilities. - Les mouvements de versant tels que les chutes de blocs, les éboulements ou encore les phénomènes plus lents comme les déformations gravitaires profondes de versant représentent des manifestations courantes en régions montagneuses. Les mouvements de versant sont à la fois un des facteurs principaux contrôlant la destruction progressive des chaines orogéniques mais aussi un danger naturel concret qui peut provoquer des dommages importants. Pourtant, les phénomènes gravitaires sont rarement analysés dans leur globalité et les rapports géométriques et mécaniques qui lient les instabilités à l'échelle du versant aux instabilités locales restent encore mal définis. Une meilleure caractérisation de ces liens pourrait pourtant représenter un apport substantiel dans la compréhension des processus de déstabilisation des versants et améliorer la caractérisation des dangers gravitaires à toutes les échelles spatiales. Dans le but de proposer un approche plus globale à la problématique des mouvements gravitaires, ce travail de thèse propose trois axes de recherche principaux: (1) l'inventaire et l'analyse de la distribution spatiale des grandes instabilités rocheuses à l'échelle régionale, (2) l'analyse des structures tectoniques cassantes et ductiles en relation avec les mécanismes de rupture des grandes instabilités rocheuses et (3) la caractérisation des aléas rocheux par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à développer un modèle conceptuel de l'instabilité et une meilleure appréciation du danger . Pour analyser les différentes problématiques traitées dans cette thèse, différentes techniques ont été utilisées. En particulier, le modèle numérique de terrain s'est révélé être un outil indispensable pour la majorité des analyses effectuées, en partant de l'identification de l'instabilité jusqu'au suivi des mouvements. Les analyses de terrain et des modélisations numériques ont ensuite permis de compléter les informations issues du modèle numérique de terrain. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, les mouvements gravitaires rocheux dans la vallée du Rhône (Suisse) ont été cartographiés pour étudier leur répartition en fonction des variables géologiques et morphologiques régionales. En particulier, les analyses ont mis en évidence l'influence de l'activité néotectonique et des phases glaciaires sur la distribution des zones à forte densité d'instabilités rocheuses. Les volumes des instabilités rocheuses identifiées le long de la vallée principale ont été ensuite utilisés pour estimer le taux de dénudations postglaciaire et le remplissage de la vallée du Rhône lié aux grands mouvements gravitaires. Dans la deuxième partie, l'étude de l'agencement structural des avalanches rocheuses de Sierre (Suisse) et de Frank (Canada) a permis de mieux caractériser l'influence passive des structures tectoniques sur la géométrie des instabilités. En particulier, les structures issues d'une tectonique ductile, souvent ignorées dans l'étude des instabilités gravitaires, ont été identifiées comme des structures très importantes qui contrôlent les mécanismes de rupture des instabilités à différentes échelles. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, cinq instabilités rocheuses différentes ont été étudiées par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à mieux caractériser l'aléa et à développer un modèle conceptuel trois dimensionnel de ces instabilités. A l'aide de ces analyses on a pu mettre en évidence la nécessité d'incorporer différentes techniques d'analyses et de surveillance pour une gestion plus objective du risque associée aux grandes instabilités rocheuses.

Evolution of source EEG synchronization in early Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) disrupts functional connectivity in distributed cortical networks. We analyzed changes in the S-estimator, a measure of multivariate intraregional synchronization, in electroencephalogram (EEG) source space in 15 mild AD patients versus 15 age-matched controls to evaluate its potential as a marker of AD progression. All participants underwent 2 clinical evaluations and 2 EEG recording sessions on diagnosis and after a year. The main effect of AD was hyposynchronization in the medial temporal and frontal regions and relative hypersynchronization in posterior cingulate, precuneus, cuneus, and parietotemporal cortices. However, the S-estimator did not change over time in either group. This result motivated an analysis of rapidly progressing AD versus slow-progressing patients. Rapidly progressing AD patients showed a significant reduction in synchronization with time, manifest in left frontotemporal cortex. Thus, the evolution of source EEG synchronization over time is correlated with the rate of disease progression and should be considered as a cost-effective AD biomarker.

Highlands of the upper Jequitinhonha valley, Brazil: II - mineralogy, micromorphology, and landscape evolution¹

Palm swanp formations, the so-called veredas, typically occur in the Brazilian biome known as "Cerrado" (savanna-like vegetation), especially on flattened areas or tablelands (chapadas). The aim of this study was to characterize the mineralogy and micromorphology of soil materials from a representative toposequence of the watershed of the vereda Lagoa do Leandro, located in Minas Novas, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, on plains in the region of the upper Jequitinhonha valley, emphasizing essential aspects of their genesis and landscape evolution. The toposequence is underlain by rocks of the Macaúbas group and covered with detrital and metamorphic rocks (schists of Proterozoic diamictites). The soil profiles were first pedologically described; samples of the disturbed and undisturbed soils were collected from all horizons for further micromorphological and mineralogical analyses. The mineralogical analysis was mainly based on powder X ray diffractometry (XRD) and micromorphological descriptions of thin sections under a petrographic microscope. The soils from the bottom to the top of this toposequence were classified as: Typic Albaquult (GXbd), Xanthic Haplustox, gray color, here called "Gray Haplustox" ("LAC"), Xanthic Haplustox (LA) and Typic Haplustox (LVA). The clay mineralogy of all soils was found to be dominated by kaolinite. In soil of LA and LVA, the occurrence of goethite, gibbsite, and anatase was evidenced; "LAC" also contained anatase and the GXbd, illite, anatase, and traces of vermiculite. The micromorphological analyses of the LVA, LA and "LAC" soils showed the prevalence of a microaggregate-like or granular microstructure, and aggregate porosity has a stacked/packed structure, which is typical of Oxisols. A massive structure was observed in GXbd material, with the presence of illuviation cutans of clay minerals and iron compounds. Paleogleissolos, which are strongly weathered, due to the action of the excavating fauna , and resulted in the present "LAC". The GXbd at the base of the vereda preserved the physical, mineralogical and micromorphological properties that are typical of a pedogenesis with a strong influence of long dry periods.

Large scale assessment of regulatory evolution and transcriptome complexity in mammals

AbstractIn addition to genetic changes affecting the function of gene products, changes in gene expression have been suggested to underlie many or even most of the phenotypic differences among mammals. However, detailed gene expression comparisons were, until recently, restricted to closely related species, owing to technological limitations. Thus, we took advantage of the latest technologies (RNA-Seq) to generate extensive qualitative and quantitative transcriptome data for a unique collection of somatic and germline tissues from representatives of all major mammalian lineages (placental mammals, marsupials and monotremes) and birds, the evolutionary outgroup.In the first major project of my thesis, we performed global comparative analyses of gene expression levels based on these data. Our analyses provided fundamental insights into the dynamics of transcriptome change during mammalian evolution (e.g., the rate of expression change across species, tissues and chromosomes) and allowed the exploration of the functional relevance and phenotypic implications of transcription changes at a genome-wide scale (e.g., we identified numerous potentially selectively driven expression switches).In a second project of my thesis, which was also based on the unique transcriptome data generated in the context of the first project we focused on the evolution of alternative splicing in mammals. Alternative splicing contributes to transcriptome complexity by generating several transcript isoforms from a single gene, which can, thus, perform various functions. To complete the global comparative analysis of gene expression changes, we explored patterns of alternative splicing evolution. This work uncovered several general and unexpected patterns of alternative splicing evolution (e.g., we found that alternative splicing evolves extremely rapidly) as well as a large number of conserved alternative isoforms that may be crucial for the functioning of mammalian organs.Finally, the third and final project of my PhD consisted in analyzing in detail the unique functional and evolutionary properties of the testis by exploring the extent of its transcriptome complexity. This organ was previously shown to evolve rapidly both at the phenotypic and molecular level, apparently because of the specific pressures that act on this organ and are associated with its reproductive function. Moreover, my analyses of the amniote tissue transcriptome data described above, revealed strikingly widespread transcriptional activity of both functional and nonfunctional genomic elements in the testis compared to the other organs. To elucidate the cellular source and mechanisms underlying this promiscuous transcription in the testis, we generated deep coverage RNA-Seq data for all major testis cell types as well as epigenetic data (DNA and histone methylation) using the mouse as model system. The integration of these complete dataset revealed that meiotic and especially post-meiotic germ cells are the major contributors to the widespread functional and nonfunctional transcriptome complexity of the testis, and that this "promiscuous" spermatogenic transcription is resulting, at least partially, from an overall transcriptionally permissive chromatin state. We hypothesize that this particular open state of the chromatin results from the extensive chromatin remodeling that occurs during spermatogenesis which ultimately leads to the replacement of histones by protamines in the mature spermatozoa. Our results have important functional and evolutionary implications (e.g., regarding new gene birth and testicular gene expression evolution).Generally, these three large-scale projects of my thesis provide complete and massive datasets that constitute valuables resources for further functional and evolutionary analyses of mammalian genomes.

Detrital zircon and micropalaeontological ages as new constraints for the lowermost tectonic unit (Talea Ori unit) of Crete, Greece

The Talea Ori unit is the lowermost known tectonic unit of Crete and the most external part of the Hellenides. Its stratigraphy ranges from Late Carboniferous to Oligocene and outcrops of the lower part are only known in the Talea Ori mountains (central Crete). In this area, a black sandstone at the base of the Galinos Beds, thought to be the oldest formation, contains zircons which were dated using the single grain evaporation method. The majority of these grains yielded Late Carboniferous ages (Variscan), while a small group yielded Early Proterozoic ages. The age distribution of these zircons suggests that, at the Carboniferous-Permian boundary, not much of the older North Gondwanan basement was exposed and that a river system carried detrital material from the Variscan belt towards the forming Neotethyan rift. Additionally, higher up in the stratigraphy benthic foraminifers (miliolids) were found in clasts from a conglomerate which was so far thought to be of Early Triassic age [Epting, M., Kudrass, H.-R., Leppig, U., Schaffer, A., 1972. Geologie der Talea Ori/Kreta. N. Jb. Geol. Palaont. Abh. 141, 259-285.]. These miliolids belong to the species Hoyenella inconstans [Michalik, J., Jendrejakova, O., Borza, K., 1979. Some new foraminifera species of the Fatra-Formation (Uppermost Triassic) in the West Carpathians. Geol. Carpath. 30 (1), 61-91.], thus attributing a Late Triassic (Carnian-Norian?) maximal age to this conglomerate. The carbonate platform from which the miliolids-bearing clasts come is not known. The presence to the north of a continuous hemipelagic record from the Carboniferous to the Triassic (Phyllite-Quartzite and Tripali units), attributed to the Palaeotethys realm, allows the Talea Ori unit and its lateral equivalents (the Ionian zone) to be assigned to the westward continuation of the Cimmerian block and therefore to the northern margin of the East Mediterranean Neotethys ocean. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.