Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A MODIS-Based Energy Balance to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Clear-Sky Days in Brazilian Tropical Savannas

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in global climate dynamics and in primary production of terrestrial ecosystems; it represents the mass and energy transfer from the land to atmosphere. Limitations to measuring ET at large scales using ground-based methods have motivated the development of satellite remote sensing techniques. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the accuracy of the SEBAL algorithm for estimating surface turbulent heat fluxes at regional scale, using 28 images from MODIS. SEBAL estimates are compared with eddy-covariance (EC) measurements and results from the hydrological model MGB-IPH. SEBAL instantaneous estimates of latent heat flux (LE) yielded r(2) = 0.64 and r(2) = 0.62 over sugarcane croplands and savannas when compared against in situ EC estimates. At the same sites, daily aggregated estimates of LE were r(2) = 0.76 and r(2) = 0.66, respectively. Energy balance closure showed that turbulent fluxes over sugarcane croplands were underestimated by 7% and 9% over savannas. Average daily ET from SEBAL is in close agreement with estimates from the hydrological model for an overlay of 38,100 km(2) (r(2) = 0.88). Inputs to which the algorithm is most sensitive are vegetation index (NDVI), gradient of temperature (dT) to compute sensible heat flux (H) and net radiation (Re). It was verified that SEBAL has a tendency to overestimate results both at local and regional scales probably because of low sensitivity to soil moisture and water stress. Nevertheless the results confirm the potential of the SEBAL algorithm, when used with MODIS images for estimating instantaneous LE and daily ET from large areas.

The Selection Exerted by Oil Contamination on Mangrove Fungal Communities

Mangrove ecosystems are tropical environments that are characterized by the interaction between the land and the sea. As such, this ecosystem is vulnerable to oil spills. Here, we show a culture-independent survey of fungal communities that are found in the sediments of the following two mangroves that are located on the coast of Sao Paulo State (Brazil): (1) an oil-spill-affected mangrove and (2) a nearby unaffected mangrove. Samples were collected from each mangrove forest at three distinct locations (transect from sea to land), and the samples were analyzed by quantitative PCR and internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-based PCR-DGGE analysis. The abundance of fungi was found to be higher in the oil-affected mangrove. Visual observation and correspondence analysis (CA) of the ITS-based PCR-DGGE profiles revealed differences in the fungal communities between the sampled areas. Remarkably, the oil-spilled area was quite distinct from the unaffected sampling areas. On the basis of the ITS sequences, fungi that are associated with the Basidiomycota and Ascomycota taxa were most common and belonged primarily to the genera Epicoccum, Nigrospora, and Cladosporium. Moreover, the Nigrospora fungal species were shown to be sensitive to oil, whereas a group that was described as "uncultured Basidiomycota" was found more frequently in oil-contaminated areas. Our results showed an increase in fungal abundance in the oil-polluted mangrove regions, and these data indicated potential fungal candidates for remediation of the oil-affected mangroves.

In-Flight Collision Avoidance Controller Based Only on OS4 Embedded Sensors

The major goal of this research was the development and implementation of a control system able to avoid collisions during the flight for a mini-quadrotor helicopter, based only on its embedded sensors without changing the environment. However, it is important to highlight that the design aspects must be seriously considered in order to overcome hardware limitations and achieve control simplification. The controllers of a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) robot deal with highly unstable dynamics and strong axes coupling. Furthermore, any additional embedded sensor increases the robot total weight and therefore, decreases its operating time. The best balance between embedded electronics and robot operating time is desired. This paper focuses not only on the development and implementation of a collision avoidance controller for a mini-robotic helicopter using only its embedded sensors, but also on the mathematical model that was essential for the controller developing phases. Based on this model we carried out the development of a simulation tool based on MatLab/Simulink that was fundamental for setting the controllers' parameters. This tool allowed us to simulate and improve the OS4 controllers in different modeled environments and test different approaches. After that, the controllers were embedded in the real robot and the results proved to be very robust and feasible. In addition to this, the controller has the advantage of being compatible with future path planners that we are developing.

Regular and moderate exercise before experimental sepsis reduces the risk of lung and distal organ injury

de Araujo CC, Silva JD, Samary CS, Guimaraes IH, Marques PS, Oliveira GP, do Carmo LGRR, Goldenberg RC, Bakker-Abreu I, Diaz BL, Rocha NN, Capelozzi VL, Pelosi P, Rocco PRM. Regular and moderate exercise before experimental sepsis reduces the risk of lung and distal organ injury. J Appl Physiol 112: 1206-1214, 2012. First published January 19, 2012; doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.01061.2011.-Physical activity modulates inflammation and immune response in both normal and pathologic conditions. We investigated whether regular and moderate exercise before the induction of experimental sepsis reduces the risk of lung and distal organ injury and survival. One hundred twenty-four BALB/c mice were randomly assigned to two groups: sedentary (S) and trained (T). Animals in T group ran on a motorized treadmill, at moderate intensity, 5% grade, 30 min/day, 3 times a week for 8 wk. Cardiac adaptation to exercise was evaluated using echocardiography. Systolic volume and left ventricular mass were increased in T compared with S group. Both T and S groups were further randomized either to sepsis induced by cecal ligation and puncture surgery (CLP) or sham operation (control). After 24 h, lung mechanics and histology, the degree of cell apoptosis in lung, heart, kidney, liver, and small intestine villi, and interleukin (IL)-6, KC (IL-8 murine functional homolog), IL-1 beta, IL-10, and number of cells in bronchoalveolar lavage (BALF) and peritoneal lavage (PLF) fluids as well as plasma were measured. In CLP, T compared with S groups showed: 1) improvement in survival; 2) reduced lung static elastance, alveolar collapse, collagen and elastic fiber content, number of neutrophils in BALF, PLF, and plasma, as well as lung and distal organ cell apoptosis; and 3) increased IL-10 in BALF and plasma, with reduced IL-6, KC, and IL-1 beta in PLF. In conclusion, regular and moderate exercise before the induction of sepsis reduced the risk of lung and distal organ damage, thus increasing survival.

Production of Human Antibody Fragments Binding to Melittin and Phospholipase A2 in Africanised Bee Venom: Minimising Venom Toxicity

The hybrid created from the crossbreeding of European and African bees, known as the Africanised bee, has provided numerous advantages for current beekeeping. However, this new species exhibits undesirable behaviours, such as colony defence instinct and a propensity to attack en masse, which can result in serious accidents. To date, there is no effective treatment for cases of Africanised bee envenomation. One promising technique for developing an efficient antivenom is the use of phage display technology, which enables the production of human antibodies, thus avoiding the complications of serum therapy, such as anaphylaxis and serum sickness. The aim of this study was to produce human monoclonal single-chain Fv (scFv) antibody fragments capable of inhibiting the toxic effects of Africanised bee venom. We conducted four rounds of selection of antibodies against the venom and three rounds of selection of antibodies against purified melittin. Three clones were selected and tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to verify their specificity for melittin and phospholipase A2. Two clones (C5 and C12) were specific for melittin, and one (A7) was specific for phospholipase A2. In a kinetic haemolytic assay, these clones were evaluated individually and in pairs. The A7-C12 combination had the best synergistic effect and was chosen to be used in the assays of myotoxicity inhibition and lethality. The A7-C12 combination inhibited the in vivo myotoxic effect of the venom and increased the survival of treated animals.

Degradation of [D-Leu]-Microcystin-LR by solar heterogeneous photocatalysis (TiO2)

The present study investigates the use of solar heterogeneous photocatalyis (TiO2) for the destruction of [D-Leu]-Microcystin-LR, powerful toxin of widespread occurrence within cyanobacteria blooms. We extracted [D-Leu]-Microcystin-LR from a culture of Microcystis spp. and used a flat plate glass reactor coated with TiO2 (Degussa, P25) for the degradation studies. The irradiance was measured during the experiments with the aid of a spectroradiometer. After the degradation experiments, toxin concentrations were determined by HPLC and mineralization by TOC analyses. Acute and chronic toxicities were, quantified using mice and phosphatase inhibition in vitro assays, respectively. According to the performed experiments, 150 min were necessary to reduce the toxin concentration to the WHO's guideline for drinking water (from 10 to 1 mu g L-1) and to mineralize 90% of the initial carbon content. Another important finding is that solar heterogeneous photocatalysis was a destructive process indeed, not only for the toxin, but also for the other extract components and degradation products generated. Moreover, toxicity tests using mice have shown that the acute effect caused by the initial sample was removed. However, tests using the phosphatase enzyme indicated that it may be formed products capable of inducing chronic effects on mammals. The performed experiments indicate the feasibility of using solar heterogeneous photocatalysis for treating contaminated water with [D-Leu]-Microcystin-LR, not only due to its destruction, but also to the significant removal of organic matter and acute toxicity that can be achieved. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction characterization of healthy and fluorotic human dental enamel

With the introduction of fluoride as the main anticaries agent used in preventive dentistry, and perhaps an increase in fluoride in our food chain, dental fluorosis has become an increasing world-wide problem. Visible signs of fluorosis begin to become obvious on the enamel surface as opacities, implying some porosity in the tissue. The mechanisms that conduct the formation of fluorotic enamel are unknown, but should involve modifications in the basic physical-chemistry reactions of demineralization and remineralisation of the enamel of the teeth, which is the same reaction of formation of the enamel's hydroxyapatite (HAp) in the maturation phase. The increase of the amount of fluoride inside of the apatite will result in gradual increase of the lattice parameters. The aim of this work is to characterize the healthy and fluorotic enamel in human tooth using Synchrotron X-ray diffraction. All the scattering profile measurements were carried out at the X-ray diffraction beamline (XRD1) at the Brazilian Synchrotron Light Laboratory-LNLS, Campinas, Brazil. X-ray diffraction experiments were performed both in powder samples and polished surfaces. The powder samples were analyzed to obtain the characterization of a typical healthy enamel pattern. The polished surfaces were analyzed in specific areas that have been identified as fluorotic ones. X-ray diffraction data were obtained for all samples and these data were compared with the control samples and also with the literature data. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving Planting Stocks for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Restoration through Community-Based Seed Harvesting Strategies

High-diversity reforestation can help jumpstart tropical forest restoration, but obtaining viable seedlings is a major constraint: if nurseries do not offer them, it is hard to plant all the species one would like. From 2007 to 2009, we investigated five different seed acquisition strategies employed by a well-established tree nursery in southeastern Brazil, namely (1) in-house seed harvesters; (2) hiring a professional harvester; (3) amateur seed harvesters; or (4) a seed production cooperative, as well as (5) participating in a seed exchange program. In addition, we evaluated two strategies not dependent on seeds: harvesting seedlings from native tree species found regenerating under Eucalyptus plantations, and in a native forest remnant. A total of 344 native tree and shrub species were collected as seeds or seedlings, including 2,465 seed lots. Among these, a subset of 120 species was obtained through seed harvesting in each year. Overall, combining several strategies for obtaining planting stocks was an effective way to increase species richness, representation of some functional groups (dispersal syndromes, planting group, and shade tolerance), and genetic diversity of seedlings produced in forest tree nurseries. Such outcomes are greatly desirable to support high-diversity reforestation as part of tropical forest restoration. In addition, community-based seed harvesting strategies fostered greater socioeconomic integration of traditional communities in restoration projects and programs, which is an important bottleneck for the advance of ecological restoration, especially in developing countries. Finally, we discuss some of the limitations of the various strategies for obtaining planting stocks and the way forward for their improvement.

Effects of type I collagen coating on titanium osseointegration: histomorphometric, cellular and molecular analyses

The investigation of titanium (Ti) surface modifications aiming to increase implant osseointegration is one of the most active research areas in dental implantology. This study was carried out to evaluate the benefits of coating Ti with type I collagen on the osseointegration of dental implants. Acid etched Ti implants (AETi), either untreated or coated with type I collagen (ColTi), were placed in dog mandibles for three and eight weeks for histomorphometric, cellular and molecular evaluations of bone tissue response. While the histological aspects were essentially the same with both implants being surrounded by lamellar bone trabeculae, histomorphometric analysis showed more abundant bone formation in ColTi, mainly at three weeks. Cellular evaluation showed that cells harvested from bone fragments in close contact with ColTi display lower proliferative capacity and higher alkaline phosphatase activity, phenotypic features associated with more differentiated osteoblasts. Confirming these findings, molecular analyses showed that ColTi implants up-regulates the expression of a panel of genes well known as osteoblast markers. Our results present a set of evidences that coating AETi with collagen fastens the osseointegration by stimulating bone formation at the cellular and molecular levels, making this combination of morphological and biochemical modification a promising approach to treat Ti surfaces.

Designing piezoresistive plate-based sensors with distribution of piezoresistive material using topology optimization

Piezoresistive sensors are commonly made of a piezoresistive membrane attached to a flexible substrate, a plate. They have been widely studied and used in several applications. It has been found that the size, position and geometry of the piezoresistive membrane may affect the performance of the sensors. Based on this remark, in this work, a topology optimization methodology for the design of piezoresistive plate-based sensors, for which both the piezoresistive membrane and the flexible substrate disposition can be optimized, is evaluated. Perfect coupling conditions between the substrate and the membrane based on the `layerwise' theory for laminated plates, and a material model for the piezoresistive membrane based on the solid isotropic material with penalization model, are employed. The design goal is to obtain the configuration of material that maximizes the sensor sensitivity to external loading, as well as the stiffness of the sensor to particular loads, which depend on the case (application) studied. The proposed approach is evaluated by studying two distinct examples: the optimization of an atomic force microscope probe and a pressure sensor. The results suggest that the performance of the sensors can be improved by using the proposed approach.

Myocardial Chemokine Expression and Intensity of Myocarditis in Chagas Cardiomyopathy Are Controlled by Polymorphisms in CXCL9 and CXCL10

Background: Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC), a life-threatening inflammatory dilated cardiomyopathy, affects 30% of the approximately 8 million patients infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. Even though the Th1 T cell-rich myocarditis plays a pivotal role in CCC pathogenesis, little is known about the factors controlling inflammatory cell migration to CCC myocardium. Methods and Results: Using confocal immunofluorescence and quantitative PCR, we studied cell surface staining and gene expression of the CXCR3, CCR4, CCR5, CCR7, CCR8 receptors and their chemokine ligands in myocardial samples from end-stage CCC patients. CCR5+, CXCR3+, CCR4+, CCL5+ and CXCL9+ mononuclear cells were observed in CCC myocardium. mRNA expression of the chemokines CCL5, CXCL9, CXCL10, CCL17, CCL19 and their receptors was upregulated in CCC myocardium. CXCL9 mRNA expression directly correlated with the intensity of myocarditis, as well as with mRNA expression of CXCR3, CCR4, CCR5, CCR7, CCR8 and their ligands. We also analyzed single-nucleotide polymorphisms for genes encoding the most highly expressed chemokines and receptors in a cohort of Chagas disease patients. CCC patients with ventricular dysfunction displayed reduced genotypic frequencies of CXCL9 rs10336 CC, CXCL10 rs3921 GG, and increased CCR5 rs1799988CC as compared to those without dysfunction. Significantly, myocardial samples from CCC patients carrying the CXCL9/CXCL10 genotypes associated to a lower risk displayed a 2-6 fold reduction in mRNA expression of CXCL9, CXCL10, and other chemokines and receptors, along with reduced intensity of myocarditis, as compared to those with other CXCL9/CXCL10 genotypes. Conclusions: Results may indicate that genotypes associated to reduced risk in closely linked CXCL9 and CXCL10 genes may modulate local expression of the chemokines themselves, and simultaneously affect myocardial expression of other key chemokines as well as intensity of myocarditis. Taken together our results may suggest that CXCL9 and CXCL10 are master regulators of myocardial inflammatory cell migration, perhaps affecting clinical progression to the life-threatening form of CCC.

Effects of tributyltin exposure in hermit crabs: Clibanarius vittatus as a model

Tributyltin (TBT) contamination affects the reproductive system of many species of invertebrates worldwide. The present study was designed to evaluate the effects of exposure to TBT pollution on the reproduction of the hermit crab Clibanarius vittatus. An orthogonal experiment was designed with two treatments: contamination (with or without TBT in the food) and crab sex (males and females). The animals were reared in the laboratory for nine months, and macroscopic and histological analyses of reproductive organs were carried out after the end of the experiment. Tributyltin was recorded in exposed crabs, but no morphological alterations were detected in the gonads of males, regardless of whether they were exposed to TBT. In contrast, females exposed to TBT displayed disorganization and atrophy of their ovaries, thus directly affecting reproduction in this hermit crab species. This effect observed in female hermit crabs may harm populations located in harbor regions, where TBT concentration is high, even after the worldwide TBT ban.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

The Influence of Osteoblast Differentiation Stage on Bone Formation in Autogenously Implanted Cell-Based Poly(Lactide-Co-Glycolide) and Calcium Phosphate Constructs

We tested the hypothesis that the osteoblast differentiation status of bone marrow stem cells (BMSCs) combined with a three-dimensional (3D) structure modulates bone formation when autogenously implanted. Rat BMSCs were aspirated, expanded, and seeded into a 3D composite of poly(lactide-co-glycolide) and calcium phosphate (PLGA/CaP) to produce a hybrid biomaterial. Calvarial defects were implanted with (1) scaffold without cells (SC/NC), (2) scaffold and BMSCs (SC + BMSC), (3) scaffold and osteoblasts differentiated for 7 days (SC + OB7), and (4) for 14 days (SC + OB14). After 4 weeks, there was more bone formation in groups combining scaffold and cells, SC + BMSC and SC + OB7. A nonsignificant higher amount of bone formation was observed on SC + OB14 compared with SC/NC. Additionally, more blood vessels were counted within all hybrid biomaterials, without differences among them, than into SC/NC. These findings provide evidences that the cell differentiation status affects in vivo bone formation in autogenously implanted cell-based constructs. Undifferentiated BMSCs or osteoblasts in early stage of differentiation combined with PLGA/CaP scaffold favored bone formation compared with plain scaffold and that one associated with more mature osteoblasts.