Bayesian Analysis of a Superimposed Renewal Process

Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.

Effect of process variables on die-billet temperature history in a slow speed hot coining type process

A computer code is developed as a part of an ongoing project on computer aided process modelling of forging operation, to simulate heat transfer in a die-billet system. The code developed on a stage-by-stage technique is based on an Alternating Direction Implicit scheme. The experimentally validated code is used to study the effect of process specifics such as preheat die temperature, machine ascent time, rate of deformation, and dwell time on the thermal characteristics in a batch coining operation where deformation is restricted to surface level only.

Semi-Supervised Classification Using Sparse Gaussian Process Regression

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are promising Bayesian methods for classification and regression problems. They have also been used for semi-supervised learning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for solving semi-supervised binary classification problem using sparse GP regression (GPR) models. It is closely related to semi-supervised learning based on support vector regression (SVR) and maximum margin clustering. The proposed algorithm is simple and easy to implement. It gives a sparse solution directly unlike the SVR based algorithm. Also, the hyperparameters are estimated easily without resorting to expensive cross-validation technique. Use of sparse GPR model helps in making the proposed algorithm scalable. Preliminary results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the new algorithm.

Role of barriers to conformational changes in ketones undergoing the Norrish type II process

The Norrish type II process is examined in three ketones containing primary, secondary and tertiary C---H bonds in the γ position relative to the carbonyl groups; the MINDO/3 semiempirical self-consistent field (SCF) molecular orbital (MO) method was used with complete geometry optimization in the unrestricted Hartree—Fock frame for the open-shell species. Results show that barriers to conformational change in ketones play an important role in the triplet reaction.

Production process of Scots pine.

The accompanying collective research report is the result of the research project in 1986­90 between The Finnish Academy and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences. The project was organized around common field work in Finland and in the former Soviet Union and theoretical analyses of tree growth determining processes. Based on theoretical analyses, dynamic stand growth models were made and their parameters were determined utilizing the field results. Annual cycle affects the tree growth. Our theoretical approach was based on adaptation to local climate conditions from Lapland to South Russia. The initiation of growth was described as a simple low and high temperature accumulation driven model. Linking the theoretical model with long term temperature data allowed us to analyze what type of temperature response produced favorable outcome in different climates. Initiation of growth consumes the carbohydrate reserves in plants. We measured the dynamics of insoluble and soluble sugars in the very northern and Karelian conditions. Clear cyclical pattern was observed but the differences between locations were surprisingly small. Analysis of field measurements of CO2 exchange showed that irradiance is the dominating factor causing variation in photosynthetic rate in natural conditions during summer. The effect of other factors is so small that they can be omitted without any considerable loss of accuracy. A special experiment carried out in Hyytiälä showed that the needle living space, defined as the ratio between the shoot cylindric volume and needle surface area, correlates with the shoot photosynthesis. The penetration of irradiance into Scots pine canopy is a complicated phenomenon because of the movement of the sun on the sky and the complicated structure of branches and needles. A moderately simple but balanced forest radiation regime submodel was constructed. It consists of the tree crown and forest structure, the gap probability calculation and the consideration of spatial and temporal variation of radiation inside the forest. The common field excursions in different geographical regions resulted in a lot of experimental data of regularities of woody structures. The water transport seems to be a good common factor to analyse these properties of tree structure. There are evident regressions between cross-sectional areas measured at different locations along the water pathway from fine roots to needles. The observed regressions have clear geographical trends. For example, the same cross-sectional area can support three times higher needle mass in South Russia than in Lapland. Geographical trends can also be seen in shoot and needle structure. Analysis of data published by several Russian authors show, that one ton of needles transpire 42 ton of water a year. This annual amount of transpiration seems to be independent of geographical location, year and site conditions. The produced theoretical and experimental material is utilised in the development of stand growth model that describes the growth and development of Scots pine stands in Finland and the former Soviet Union. The core of the model is carbon and nutrient balances. This means that carbon obtained in photosynthesis is consumed for growth and maintenance and nutrients are taken according to the metabolic needs. The annual photosynthetic production by trees in the stand is determined as a function of irradiance and shading during the active period. The utilisation of the annual photosynthetic production to the growth of different components of trees is based on structural regularities. Since the fundamental metabolic processes are the same in all locations the same growth model structure can be applied in the large range of Scots pine. The annual photosynthetic production and structural regularities determining the allocation of resources have geographical features. The common field measurements enable the application of the model to the analysis of growth and development of stands growing on the five locations of experiments. The model enables the analysis of geographical differences in the growth of Scots pine. For example, the annual photosynthetic production of a 100-year-old stand at Voronez is 3.5 times higher than in Lapland. The share consumed to needle growth (30 %) and to growth of branches (5 %) seems to be the same in all locations. In contrast, the share of fine roots is decreasing when moving from north to south. It is 20 % in Lapland, 15 % in Hyytiälä Central Finland and Kentjärvi Karelia and 15 % in Voronez South Russia. The stem masses (115­113 ton/ha) are rather similar in Hyytiälä, Kentjärvi and Voronez, but rather low (50 ton/ha) in Lapland. In Voronez the height of the trees reach 29 m being in Hyytiälä and Kentjärvi 22 m and in Lapland only 14 m. The present approach enables utilization of structural and functional knowledge, gained in places of intensive research, in the analysis of growth and development of any stand. This opens new possibilities for growth research and also for applications in forestry practice.

Tandem Michael reaction. Synthesis of bridged diketones

Addition of NaOMe, NaOEt, or NaOPr(i) to dispironaphthalenone 1 resulted in the formation of diketones 4a-c and 5a-c. The structure assigned to 4a was confirmed by conversion to the known hemiacetal 3. Similar addition of carbon nucleophiles like diethyl malonate, dimethyl malonate, methyl cyanoacetate, and ethyl cyanoacetate afforded diketones 4d-g. Formation of these compounds has been rationalized.

The Mechanism Of The Hydrogen Abstraction Process By Photo-Excited Ketones

Qualitative potential energy surfaces for hydrogen abstraction from alkanes containing primary, secondary and tertiary C-H bonds by a photo-excited ketone have been reported, The results suggest that the activation barriers for these processes decrease in the order primary > secondary > tertiary in agreement with the observed trend in the rate constants. The analysis of the electronic structure of the transition-state reveal that electron-transfer from hydrocarbon to ketone and formation of a new bond are almost synchronous in the hydrogen transfer process. The tunneling of hydrogen is not important in the normal temperature region even though the barriers are small.

A New Liquid Level Sensor for Process-Control Applications

Many process-control systems are air-operated. In such an environment, it would be desirable and economical to use pneumatic sensors. Bubble-back pressure sensors perform quite satisfactorily, but in case of viscous inflammable and slurry-like liquids with a tendency to froth, this level sensor is inadequate. The method suggested in this paper utilizes a pneumatic capacitor, one boundary of which is formed by the liquid level, to modulate a fluid amplifier feedback oscillator. The absence of moving parts and economy obtained makes this method attractive for process-control applications. The system has been mathematically modeled and simulated on an IBM 360/44 digital computer. Experimental values compare fairly well with the theoretical results. For the range tested, the sensor is found to have a linear frequency variation with the liquid level Extended running in the laboratory shows that the system is very reliable. This system has been found insensitive to temperature variations of up to 15ðC.

Mechanism of gel-to-crystallite conversion process in the synthesis of nanocrystalline multinary oxides

Description of gel-to-crystallite conversion process is made towards the synthesis of nanocrystalline titanates and aluminates. Thermodynamic and kinetic factors governing the conversion of a gel to meta-stable and stable nanocrystalline products(s) are discussed. Correlations between these factors and the preparative conditions employed for the syntheses of titanates and aluminates are arrived at.

Chinese immigrants to Finland: A qualitative study of housing, employment, access to health care and child care as sociological dimensions in their settlement process

The Master’s thesis is qualitative research based on interviews of 15 Chinese immigrants to Finland in order to provide a sociological perspective of the migration experience through the eyes of Chinese immigrants in the Finnish social welfare context. This research is mainly focused upon four crucial aspects of life in the settlement process: housing, employment, access to health care and child care. Inspired by Allardt’s theoretical framework ‘Having, Loving and Being’, social relationships and individual satisfaction are examined in the case of Chinese interviewees dealing with the four life aspects. Finland was not perceived as an attractive migration destination for most Chinese interviewees in the beginning. However, with longer residence in Finland, the Finnish social welfare system gradually became a crucial appealing factor in their permanent settlement in Finland. And meanwhile, social responsibility of attending their old parents in China, strong feelings of being isolated in Finland, and insufficient integration into the Finnish society were influential factors for their decision of returning to China. Social relationships with personal friends, migration brokers, schools, employers and family relatives had great influences in the four life aspects of Chinese immigrants in Finland. The social relationship with the Finnish social welfare sector is supportive to Chinese immigrants, but Chinese immigrants do not heavily rely on Finnish social protection. The housing conditions were greatly improved over time while the upward mobility in the Finnish labour market was not significant among Chinese immigrants. All Chinese immigrants were satisfied with their current housing by the time I interviewed them while most of them had subjective feelings of being alienated in the Finnish labour market, which seriously prevented them from integrating into the Finnish society. In general, Chinese immigrants were satisfied with the low cost of accessing the Finnish public health care services and affordable Finnish child day care services and financial subsidies for children from the Finnish social welfare sector. This research also suggests that employment is the central basis in well-being. Support from the Finnish social welfare sector can improve the satisfaction levels among immigrants, especially when it mitigates the effects of low-paid employment. As well, my empirical study of Chinese immigrants in Finland shows that Having (needs for materials), Loving (needs for social relations) and Being (needs for social integration) are all involved in the four concrete aspects (housing, employment, access to health care and child care).

Compensator for constant relative stability in process control systems

Process control systems are designed for a closed-loop peak magnitude of 2dB, which corresponds to a damping coefficient () of 0.5 approximately. With this specified constraint, the designer should choose and/or design the loop components to maintain a constant relative stability. However, the manipulative variable in almost all chemical processes will be the flow rate of a process stream. Since the gains and the time constants of the process will be functions of the manipulative variable, a constant relative stability cannot be maintained. Up to now, this problem has been overcome either by selecting proper control valve flow characteristics or by gain scheduling of controller parameters. Nevertheless, if a wrong control valve selection is made then one has to account for huge loss in controllability or eventually it may lead to an unstable control system. To overcome these problems, a compensator device that can bring back the relative stability of the control system was proposed. This compensator is similar to a dynamic nonlinear controller that has both online and offline information on several factors related to the control system. The design and analysis of the proposed compensator is discussed in this article. Finally, the performance of the compensator is validated by applying it to a two-tank blending process. It has been observed that by using a compensator in the process control system, the relative stability could be brought back to a great extent despite the effects of changes in manipulative flow rate.

Effects of gender, and SLCO1B1 and CYP7A1 polymorphisms on plasma bile acids in humans and the pharmacokinetics of therapeutic ursodeoxycholic acid

Bile acids are important steroid-derived molecules essential for fat absorption in the small intestine. They are produced in the liver and secreted into the bile. Bile acids are transported by bile flow to the small intestine, where they aid the digestion of lipids. Most bile acids are reabsorbed in the small intestine and return to the liver through the portal vein. The whole recycling process is referred to as the enterohepatic circulation, during which only a small amount of bile acids are removed from the body via faeces. The enterohepatic circulation of bile acids involves the delicate coordination of a number of bile acid transporters expressed in the liver and the small intestine. Organic anion transporting polypeptide 1B1 (OATP1B1), encoded by the solute carrier organic anion transporter family, member 1B1 (SLCO1B1) gene, mediates the sodium independent hepatocellular uptake of bile acids. Two common SNPs in the SLCO1B1 gene are well known to affect the transport activity of OATP1B1. Moreover, bile acid synthesis is an important elimination route for cholesterol. Cholesterol 7α-hydroxylase (CYP7A1) is the rate-limiting enzyme of bile acid production. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the effects of SLCO1B1 polymorphism on the fasting plasma levels of individual endogenous bile acids and a bile acid synthesis marker, and the pharmacokinetics of exogenously administered ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). Furthermore, the effects of CYP7A1 genetic polymorphism and gender on the fasting plasma concentrations of individual endogenous bile acids and the bile acid synthesis marker were evaluated. Firstly, a high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) method for the determination of bile acids was developed (Study I). A retrospective study examined the effects of SLCO1B1 genetic polymorphism on the fasting plasma concentrations of individual bile acids and a bile acid synthesis marker in 65 healthy subjects (Study II). In another retrospective study with 143 healthy individuals, the effects of CYP7A1 genetic polymorphism and gender as well as SLCO1B1 polymorphism on the fasting plasma levels of individual bile acids and the bile acid synthesis marker were investigated (Study III). The effects of SLCO1B1 polymorphism on the pharmacokinetics of exogenously administered UDCA were evaluated in a prospective genotype panel study including 27 healthy volunteers (Study IV). A robust, sensitive and simple HPLC-MS/MS method was developed for the simultaneous determination of 16 individual bile acids in human plasma. The method validation parameters for all the analytes met the requirements of the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) bioanalytical guidelines. This HPLC-MS/MS method was applied in Studies II-IV. In Study II, the fasting plasma concentrations of several bile acids and the bile acid synthesis marker seemed to be affected by SLCO1B1 genetic polymorphism, but these findings were not replicated in Study III with a larger sample size. Moreover, SLCO1B1 polymorphism had no effect on the pharmacokinetic parameters of exogenously administered UDCA. Furthermore, no consistent association was observed between CYP7A1 genetic polymorphism and the fasting plasma concentrations of individual bile acids or the bile acid synthesis marker. In contrast, gender had a major effect on the fasting plasma concentrations of several bile acids and also total bile acids. In conclusion, gender, but not SLCO1B1 or CYP7A1 polymorphisms, has a major effect on the fasting plasma concentrations of individual bile acids. Moreover, the common genetic polymorphism of CYP7A1 is unlikely to influence the activity of CYP7A1 under normal physiological conditions. OATP1B1 does not play an important role in the in vivo disposition of exogenously administered UDCA.

Solid State Electrochemical Sensors in Process Control

The basic principles of operation of gas sensors based on solid-state galvanic cells are described. The polarisation of the electrodes can be minimised by the use of point electrodes made of the solid electrolyte, the use of a reference system with chemical potential close to that of the sample system and the use of graded condensed phase reference electrodes. Factors affecting the speed of response of galvanic sensors in equilibrium and non-equilibrium gas mixtures are considered with reference to products of combustion of fossil fuels. An expression for the emf of non-isothermal galvanic sensors and the criterion for the design of temperature compensated reference electrodes for non-isothermal galvanic sensors are briefly outlined. Non-isothermal sensors are useful for the continuous monitoring of concentrations or chemical potentials in reactive systems at high temperatures. Sensors for oxygen, carbon, and alloying elements (Zn and Si) in liquid metals and alloys are discussed. The use of auxiliary electrodes permits the detection of chemical species in the gas phase which are not mobile in the solid electrolyte. Finally, the cause of common errors in galvanic measurements, and tests for correct functioning of galvanic sensors are given. 60 ref.--AA