A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Development of an animal model for endometrial ablation using trichloroacetic acid

Objective: To develop an animal model of endometrial ablation, and to evaluate the histologic effects of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) in the uterine cavity. Design: Experimental prospective. Setting: Department of gynecology. Patient(s): Thirty female adult rats. Intervention(s): Animals were submitted to injection of TCA in one uterine horn and saline solution in the other. Group 1 was sacrificed the day after the procedure. Group 2 was sacrificed in phase of diestrus. Superficial epithelia of the endometrium, stromal thickness, endometrial glands, and myometrium thickness were compared among the uterine horns of the same rats of group 1. The same evaluation was performed in group 2. Endometrial regeneration was evaluated. Main Outcome Measure(s): Histologic effects. Result(s): In group 1, histologic parameters showed endometrial destruction on TCA injected uterine horn. In group 2, four rats died after the procedure, and six rats had no viable material. In the rest of the group, TCA-injected uterine horns showed endometrial destruction. Superficial epithelia of the endometrium and stromal thickness were similar between TCA uterine horn from groups. However, the number of endometrial glands was higher in group 1. Conclusion(s): The study developed an experimental model for endometrial ablation. TCA acid is a potent agent for endometrial ablation in rat model. No endometrial regeneration was observed after recovery of cycle. (Fertil Steril (R) 2011; 95: 2418-21. (C) 2011 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Model-Predicted Performance of Second-Trimester Down Syndrome Screening With Sonographic Prenasal Thickness

Objective. The purpose of this study was to estimate the Down syndrome detection and false-positive rates for second-trimester sonographic prenasal thickness (PT) measurement alone and in combination with other markers. Methods. Multivariate log Gaussian modeling was performed using numerical integration. Parameters for the PT distribution, in multiples of the normal gestation-specific median (MoM), were derived from 105 Down syndrome and 1385 unaffected pregnancies scanned at 14 to 27 weeks. The data included a new series of 25 cases and 535 controls combined with 4 previously published series. The means were estimated by the median and the SDs by the 10th to 90th range divided by 2.563. Parameters for other markers were obtained from the literature. Results. A log Gaussian model fitted the distribution of PT values well in Down syndrome and unaffected pregnancies. The distribution parameters were as follows: Down syndrome, mean, 1.334 MoM; log(10) SD, 0.0772; unaffected pregnancies, 0.995 and 0.0752, respectively. The model-predicted detection rates for 1%, 3%, and 5% false-positive rates for PT alone were 35%, 51%, and 60%, respectively. The addition of PT to a 4 serum marker protocol increased detection by 14% to 18% compared with serum alone. The simultaneous sonographic measurement of PT and nasal bone length increased detection by 19% to 26%, and with a third sonographic marker, nuchal skin fold, performance was comparable with first-trimester protocols. Conclusions. Second-trimester screening with sonographic PT and serum markers is predicted to have a high detection rate, and further sonographic markers could perform comparably with first-trimester screening protocols.

A selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor suppresses the growth of endometriosis with an antiangiogenic effect in a rat model

Objective: To analyze the antiangiogenic effects of the selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitor parecoxib on the growth of endometrial implants in a rat model of peritoneal endometriosis. Design: Pharmacologic interventions in an experimental model of peritoneal endometriosis. Setting: Research laboratory in the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Animal(s): Twenty female Sprague-Dawley rats with experimentally induced endometriosis. Intervention(s): After implantation and establishment of autologous endometrium onto the peritoneum abdominal wall, rats were randomized into groups and treated with parecoxib or the vehicle by IM injection for 30 days. Main Outcome Measure(s): Vascular density, the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and its receptor Flk-1, the distribution of activated macrophages, the expression of COX-2, and the prostaglandin concentration in the endometriotic lesions treated with parecoxib were analyzed. Result(s): The treatment significantly decreased the implant size, and histologic examination indicated mostly atrophy and regression. A reduction in microvessel density and in the number of macrophages, associated with decreased expression of VEGF and Flk-1, also were observed. The treatment group showed a low concentration of prostaglandin E(2). Conclusion(s): These results suggest that the use of COX-2 selective inhibitors could be effective to suppress the establishment and growth of endometriosis, partially through their antiangiogenic activity. (Fertil Steril (R) 2010; 93: 2674-9. (C) 2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

FIBRIN GLUE APPLICATION IN MICROVASCULAR ANASTOMOSIS: COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO FREE FLAPS SERIES

Background: Since the first experiments with fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses in 1977, several studies have reported its benefits on suture reduction and anastomosis decreased time. In spite of that, clinical experience has been limited to two neurosurgical and two replantation case series, all of them with good results. This study was conducted to evaluate the feasibility and the potential benefits of fibrin glue application in free flaps. Methods: We performed 24 free flaps in 24 patients, from March 2005 to June 2006. Twenty were included in this study. They were divided into two groups according to the anastomosis technique: conventional group (n = 7 patients) and fibrin glue group (n = 13 patients). In the conventional group, the anastomosis was performed with interrupted sutures, whereas in the fibrin glue group, they were performed using less sutures and fibrin glue application. Results: The application of fibrin glue cut by half the number of sutures required to complete the anastomoses. The mean arterial and venous anastomotic times in the conventional group were 27.2 and 24.0 minutes, respectively. In the fibrin glue group, they were 13.6 and 12.6 minutes, respectively. All these differences were statistically significant. There was no significant difference of ischemic time between two groups (P = 0.26). The survival rate of the flaps was similar in both groups: 84.6% (11 of 13) in the fibrin glue group and 85.7% (6 of 7) in the conventional group (P = 1.0). Conclusions: Fibrin glue application in free flaps was feasible and allowed us to complete the anastomoses with fewer sutures and less time. The survival rate of the flaps was not adversely affected by the fibrin glue. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Microsurgery 29:24-28, 2009.

Application of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses: Comparative analysis with the conventional suture technique using a free flap model

Background: Several studies have already reported the utilization of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses to minimize the number of sutures and to decrease the operative time. Despite the good results obtained in most of these experiments, its clinical application has not launched. The aim of this study was to clarify the controversies around the safeness of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses, and also to demonstrate the potential benefits of fibrin glue application in a realistic free flap model. Methods: Twenty-seven rabbits were used in this study The experimental model consisted of a free groin flap transfer to the anterior cervical region. The flap`s circulation was restored by means of an end-to-side anastomosis between the femoral and carotid arteries, and an end-to-end anastomosis between the femoral and external jugular veins. The animals were divided into two groups (n = 10) according to the anastomosis technique: Group I (conventional suture) and group 11 (fibrin glue). Results: The number of sutures required to complete the arterial and venous anastomoses was reduced in 39 and 37% in group 11, respectively. Despite this reduction, the anastomoses maintained adequate patency rates and mechanical strength. Both arterial and venous anastomoses benefited from fibrin glue application, which made them easier and faster to perform. The flaps` ischemic time and the total operative time were also significantly shortened. Conclusions: In this study, the application of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses was safe and reliable. The risk-benefit ratio of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses is favorable for its use. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic relevance of TTF-1 and MMP-9 expression in advanced lung adenocarcinoma

Background: The thyroid transcription factor-1 (TTF-1) is a tissue-specific transcription factor that Could playan important role in cell differentiation and morphogenesis of lung tumors. Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) is a protease commonly expressed in non-small cell lung cancer, conferring angiogenic and metastatic potential. Methods: We assessed TTF-1 and MMP-9 tumor expression by immunohistochemistry in 51 patients with lung adenocarcinoma, stage 11113 or IV, treated with platinum regimens. A bicategorical prognostic model was obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method, COX regression, and conjunctive consolidation. Results: The median expression of TTF-1 was 30.0% (range: 0-85.9%). All tumors expressed MMP-9 (median: 78.7%: range: 15.2-96.1%). Median survival was 41.6 weeks, with estimated 1- and 2-year survival rates of 45.0% and 22.0%, respectively. Poor performance status (Karnofsky scale) - hazards ratio(HR): 1.03. 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.06: low TTF-1 expression (<40%) - FIR: 4.00, 95% CI: 1.75-9.09: and high MMP-9 expression (>= 80%) - HR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.30-6.08 were independent prognostic factors. Patients could be stratified in three death risk groups according to markers expression: low risk (high TTF-1 and low MMP-9; median survival: 127.6 weeks), intermediate risk (low TTF-1 OF high MMP-9; median survival: 39.0 weeks): and high risk (low TTF-1 and high MMP-9: median survival: 16.4 weeks). Conclusion: TTF-1 and MMP-9 tumor expression as detected by immunohistochemistry may allow identification of different, clinically meaningful, prognostic groups of advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients treated with platinum regimens. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibition attenuates lung tissue responsiveness and remodeling in a model of chronic pulmonary inflammation in guinea pigs

We evaluated the influence of iNOS-derived NO on the mechanics, inflammatory, and remodeling process in peripheral lung parenchyma of guinea pigs with chronic pulmonary allergic inflammation. Animals treated or not with 1400W were submitted to seven exposures of ovalbumin in increasing doses. Seventy-two hours after the 7th inhalation, lung strips were suspended in a Krebs organ bath, and tissue resistance and elastance measured at baseline and after ovalbumin challenge. The strips were submitted to histopathological measurements. The ovalbumin-exposed animals showed increased maximal responses of resistance and elastance (p < 0.05), eosinophils counting (p < 0.001), iNOS-positive cells (p < 0.001), collagen and elastic fiber deposition (p < 0.05), actin density (p < 0.05) and 8-iso-PGF2 alpha expression (p < 0.001) in alveolar septa compared to saline-exposed ones. Ovalbumin-exposed animals treated with 1400 W had a significant reduction in lung functional and histopathological findings (p < 0.05). We showed that iNOS-specific inhibition attenuates lung parenchyma constriction, inflammation, and remodeling, suggesting NO-participation in the modulation of the oxidative stress pathway. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Different strains of mice present distinct lung tissue mechanics and extracellular matrix composition in a model of chronic allergic asthma

The impact of genetic factors on asthma is well recognized but poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that different mouse strains present different lung tissue strip mechanics in a model of chronic allergic asthma and that these mechanical differences may be potentially related to changes of extracellular matrix composition and/or contractile elements in lung parenchyma. Oscillatory mechanics were analysed before and after acetylcholine (ACh) in C57BL/10, BALB/c, and A/J mice, subjected or not to ovalbumin sensitization and challenge. In controls, tissue elastance (E) and resistance (R), collagen and elastic fibres` content, and alpha-actin were higher in A/J compared to BALB/c mice, which, in turn, were more elevated than in C57BL/10. A similar response pattern was observed in ovalbumin-challenged animals irrespective of mouse strain. E and R augmented more in ovalbumin-challenged A/J [E: 22%, R: 18%] than C57BL/10 mice [E: 9.4%, R: 11 %] after ACh In conclusion, lung parenchyma remodelled differently yielding distinct in vitro mechanics according to mouse strain. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

POLYETHYLENE GLYCOL ADDITION DOES NOT IMPROVE EXOGENOUS SURFACTANT FUNCTION IN AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL OF MECONIUM ASPIRATION SYNDROME

Meconium (MEC) is a potent inactivator of pulmonary surfactant. The authors studied the effects of polyethylene glycol addition to the exogenous surfactant over the lung mechanics and volumes. Human meconium was administrated to newborn rabbits. Animals were ventilated for 20 minutes and dynamic compliance, ventilatory pressure, and tidal volume were recorded. Animals were randomized into 3 study groups: MEC group (without surfactant therapy); S100 group (100 mg/kg surfactant); and PEG group (100 mg/kg porcine surfactant plus 5% PEG). After ventilation, a pulmonary pressure-volume curve was built. Histological analysis was carried out to calculate the mean alveolar size (Lm) and the distortion index (DI). Both groups treated with surfactant showed higher values of dynamic pulmonary compliance and lower ventilatory pressure, compared with the MEC group (P .05). S100 group had a larger maximum lung volume, V30, compared with the MEC group (P .05). Lm and DI values were smaller in the groups treated with surfactant than in the MEC group (P .05). No differences were observed between the S100 and PEG groups. Animals treated with surfactant showed significant improvement in pulmonary function as compared to nontreated animals. PEG added to exogenous surfactant did not improve lung mechanics or volumes.

A rodent model of NASH with cirrhosis, oval cell proliferation and hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a well recognized complication of advanced NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis). We sought to produce a rat model of NASH, cirrhosis and HCC. Methods: Adult Sprague-Dawley rats, weighing 250-300 g, were fed a choline-deficient, high trans-fat diet and exposed to DEN in drinking water. After 16 weeks, the animals underwent liver ultrasound (US), sacrifice and assessment by microscopy, immunohistochemistry and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Results: US revealed steatosis and focal lesions in 6 of 7. All had steatohepatitis defined as inflammation, advanced fibrosis and ballooning with Mallory-Denk bodies (MDB) with frank cirrhosis in 6. Areas of more severe injury were associated with anti-CK19 positive ductular reaction. HCC, present in all, were macro-trabecullar or solid with polyhedral cells with foci of steatosis and ballooned cells. CK19 was positive in single or solid nests of oval cells and in neoplastic hepatocytes. TEM showed ballooning with small droplet fat, dilated endoplasmic reticulum and MDB in non-neoplastic hepatocytes and small droplet steatosis in some cancer cells. Conclusions: This model replicated many features of NASH including steatohepatitis with ballooning, fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Oval cell proliferation was evident and the presence anti-CK 19 positivity in the cancer suggests oval cell origin of the malignancy. (C) 2008 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Autopsy-Proven Determinants of Immediate Fire Death in Lungs

In immediate fire deaths, pulmonary injury may be the main source of mortality, being important to document the histologic findings for the purpose of excluding other modes of death, such as from asphyxia with no gross findings. In this context, a group of morphologic determinants have been targeted with useful makers of pulmonary injury. To facilitate the determination of whether an individual was deceased before the start of a fire and validate the importance of parenchymal alterations in pulmonary injury in fire deaths, we studied lungs in victims of fire (N = 28) and suffocation (N = 40), creating a mathematical model using cluster analysis. For this purpose, a semiquantitative analysis of the distal parenchyma was performed to evaluate the amount of bronchiolar dilatation, overinsufflation (ductal and alveolar), collapse (ductal and alveolar), passive congestion, alveolar edema, and hemorrhage (interstitial and alveolar). These 7 histologic determinants were useful to discriminate fire (bronchiolar dilatation, ductal overinsuflation, alveolar overinsuflation, alveolar hemorrhage) from suffocation lung injuries (alveolar collapse, congestion, and edema). We conclude that these determinants should be included in the routine of forensic pathology.