Zonal playfield attributes – A stochastic approach to subjective passing affordances in football

Introduction: According to the ecological view, coordination establishes byvirtueof social context. Affordances thought of as situational opportunities to interact are assumed to represent the guiding principles underlying decisions involved in interpersonal coordination. It’s generally agreed that affordances are not an objective part of the (social) environment but that they depend on the constructive perception of involved subjects. Theory and empirical data hold that cognitive operations enabling domain-specific efficacy beliefs are involved in the perception of affordances. The aim of the present study was to test the effects of these cognitive concepts in the subjective construction of local affordances and their influence on decision making in football. Methods: 71 football players (M = 24.3 years, SD = 3.3, 21 % women) from different divisions participated in the study. Participants were presented scenarios of offensive game situations. They were asked to take the perspective of the person on the ball and to indicate where they would pass the ball from within each situation. The participants stated their decisions in two conditions with different game score (1:0 vs. 0:1). The playing fields of all scenarios were then divided into ten zones. For each zone, participants were asked to rate their confidence in being able to pass the ball there (self-efficacy), the likelihood of the group staying in ball possession if the ball were passed into the zone (group-efficacy I), the likelihood of the ball being covered safely by a team member (pass control / group-efficacy II), and whether a pass would establish a better initial position to attack the opponents’ goal (offensive convenience). Answers were reported on visual analog scales ranging from 1 to 10. Data were analyzed specifying general linear models for binomially distributed data (Mplus). Maximum likelihood with non-normality robust standard errors was chosen to estimate parameters. Results: Analyses showed that zone- and domain-specific efficacy beliefs significantly affected passing decisions. Because of collinearity with self-efficacy and group-efficacy I, group-efficacy II was excluded from the models to ease interpretation of the results. Generally, zones with high values in the subjective ratings had a higher probability to be chosen as passing destination (βself-efficacy = 0.133, p < .001, OR = 1.142; βgroup-efficacy I = 0.128, p < .001, OR = 1.137; βoffensive convenience = 0.057, p < .01, OR = 1.059). There were, however, characteristic differences in the two score conditions. While group-efficacy I was the only significant predictor in condition 1 (βgroup-efficacy I = 0.379, p < .001), only self-efficacy and offensive convenience contributed to passing decisions in condition 2 (βself-efficacy = 0.135, p < .01; βoffensive convenience = 0.120, p < .001). Discussion: The results indicate that subjectively distinct attributes projected to playfield zones affect passing decisions. The study proposes a probabilistic alternative to Lewin’s (1951) hodological and deterministic field theory and enables insight into how dimensions of the psychological landscape afford passing behavior. Being part of a team, this psychological landscape is not only constituted by probabilities that refer to the potential and consequences of individual behavior, but also to that of the group system of which individuals are part of. Hence, in regulating action decisions in group settings, informers are extended to aspects referring to the group-level. References: Lewin, K. (1951). In D. Cartwright (Ed.), Field theory in social sciences: Selected theoretical papers by Kurt Lewin. New York: Harper & Brothers.

Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

Mixed effects model in negative exponential curve

Despite many researches on development in education and psychology, not often is the methodology tested with real data. A major barrier to test the growth model is that the design of study includes repeated observations and the nature of the growth is nonlinear. The repeat measurements on a nonlinear model require sophisticated statistical methods. In this study, we present mixed effects model in a negative exponential curve to describe the development of children's reading skills. This model can describe the nature of the growth on children's reading skills and account for intra-individual and inter-individual variation. We also apply simple techniques including cross-validation, regression, and graphical methods to determine the most appropriate curve for data, to find efficient initial values of parameters, and to select potential covariates. We illustrate with an example that motivated this research: a longitudinal study of academic skills from grade 1 to grade 12 in Connecticut public schools. ^

Isotone Recursive Methods for Overlapping Generation Models with Stochastic Nonclassical Production

Based on an order-theoretic approach, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence, characterization, and computation of Markovian equilibrium decision processes and stationary Markov equilibrium on minimal state spaces for a large class of stochastic overlapping generations models. In contrast to all previous work, we consider reduced-form stochastic production technologies that allow for a broad set of equilibrium distortions such as public policy distortions, social security, monetary equilibrium, and production nonconvexities. Our order-based methods are constructive, and we provide monotone iterative algorithms for computing extremal stationary Markov equilibrium decision processes and equilibrium invariant distributions, while avoiding many of the problems associated with the existence of indeterminacies that have been well-documented in previous work. We provide important results for existence of Markov equilibria for the case where capital income is not increasing in the aggregate stock. Finally, we conclude with examples common in macroeconomics such as models with fiat money and social security. We also show how some of our results extend to settings with unbounded state spaces.

Stationary Markovian Equilibrium in Overlapping Generation Models with Stochastic Nonclassical Production

This paper provides new sufficient conditions for the existence, computation via successive approximations, and stability of Markovian equilibrium decision processes for a large class of OLG models with stochastic nonclassical production. Our notion of stability is existence of stationary Markovian equilibrium. With a nonclassical production, our economies encompass a large class of OLG models with public policy, valued fiat money, production externalities, and Markov shocks to production. Our approach combines aspects of both topological and order theoretic fixed point theory, and provides the basis of globally stable numerical iteration procedures for computing extremal Markovian equilibrium objects. In addition to new theoretical results on existence and computation, we provide some monotone comparative statics results on the space of economies.

Economies of Scale and Cost Efficiencies: A Panel-Data Stochastic-Frontier Analysis of Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper extends the existing research on real estate investment trust (REIT) operating efficiencies. We estimate a stochastic-frontier panel-data model specifying a translog cost function, covering 1995 to 2003. The results disagree with previous research in that we find little evidence of scale economies and some evidence of scale diseconomies. Moreover, we also generally find smaller inefficiencies than those shown by other REIT studies. Contrary to previous research, the results also show that self-management of a REIT associates with more inefficiency when we measure output with assets. When we use revenue to measure output, selfmanagement associates with less inefficiency. Also contrary with previous research, higher leverage associates with more efficiency. The results further suggest that inefficiency increases over time in three of our four specifications.

A Dynamic Stochastic Frontier Production Model with Time-Varying Efficiency

In this paper we introduce technical efficiency via the intercept that evolve over time as a AR(1) process in a stochastic frontier (SF) framework in a panel data framework. Following are the distinguishing features of the model. First, the model is dynamic in nature. Second, it can separate technical inefficiency from fixed firm-specific effects which are not part of inefficiency. Third, the model allows one to estimate technical change separate from change in technical efficiency. We propose the ML method to estimate the parameters of the model. Finally, we derive expressions to calculate/predict technical inefficiency (efficiency).

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE SIZE AND POWER OF SOME TWO-SAMPLE TESTS FOR UNEQUALLY CENSORED SURVIVAL DATA (RANK TESTS, LOGRANK, PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS, WILCOXON TESTS, EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)

Sizes and power of selected two-sample tests of the equality of survival distributions are compared by simulation for small samples from unequally, randomly-censored exponential distributions. The tests investigated include parametric tests (F, Score, Likelihood, Asymptotic), logrank tests (Mantel, Peto-Peto), and Wilcoxon-Type tests (Gehan, Prentice). Equal sized samples, n = 18, 16, 32 with 1000 (size) and 500 (power) simulation trials, are compared for 16 combinations of the censoring proportions 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60%. For n = 8 and 16, the Asymptotic, Peto-Peto, and Wilcoxon tests perform at nominal 5% size expectations, but the F, Score and Mantel tests exceeded 5% size confidence limits for 1/3 of the censoring combinations. For n = 32, all tests showed proper size, with the Peto-Peto test most conservative in the presence of unequal censoring. Powers of all tests are compared for exponential hazard ratios of 1.4 and 2.0. There is little difference in power characteristics of the tests within the classes of tests considered. The Mantel test showed 90% to 95% power efficiency relative to parametric tests. Wilcoxon-type tests have the lowest relative power but are robust to differential censoring patterns. A modified Peto-Peto test shows power comparable to the Mantel test. For n = 32, a specific Weibull-exponential comparison of crossing survival curves suggests that the relative powers of logrank and Wilcoxon-type tests are dependent on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. Wilcoxon-type tests appear more powerful than logrank tests in the case of late-crossing and less powerful for early-crossing survival curves. Guidelines for the appropriate selection of two-sample tests are given. ^

Stochastic homogenization of the laser intensity to improve the irradiation uniformity of capsules directly driven by thousands laser beams

Illumination uniformity of a spherical capsule directly driven by laser beams has been assessed numerically. Laser facilities characterized by ND = 12, 20, 24, 32, 48 and 60 directions of irradiation with associated a single laser beam or a bundle of NB laser beams have been considered. The laser beam intensity profile is assumed super-Gaussian and the calculations take into account beam imperfections as power imbalance and pointing errors. The optimum laser intensity profile, which minimizes the root-mean-square deviation of the capsule illumination, depends on the values of the beam imperfections. Assuming that the NB beams are statistically independents is found that they provide a stochastic homogenization of the laser intensity associated to the whole bundle, reducing the errors associated to the whole bundle by the factor  , which in turn improves the illumination uniformity of the capsule. Moreover, it is found that the uniformity of the irradiation is almost the same for all facilities and only depends on the total number of laser beams Ntot = ND × NB.

Suppression of the intrinsic stochastic pinning of domain walls in magnetic nanostripes

Nanofabrication has allowed the development of new concepts such as magnetic logic and race-track memory, both of which are based on the displacement of magnetic domain walls on magnetic nanostripes. One of the issues that has to be solved before devices can meet the market demands is the stochastic behaviour of the domain wall movement in magnetic nanostripes. Here we show that the stochastic nature of the domain wall motion in permalloy nanostripes can be suppressed at very low fields (0.6-2.7 Oe). We also find different field regimes for this stochastic motion that match well with the domain wall propagation modes. The highest pinning probability is found around the precessional mode and, interestingly, it does not depend on the external field in this regime. These results constitute an experimental evidence of the intrinsic nature of the stochastic pinning of domain walls in soft magnetic nanostripes

Response threshold models, stochastic learning automata and ant colony optimization-based decentralized self-coordination algorithms for heterogeneous multi-tasks distribution in multi-robot systems

In recent decades, there has been an increasing interest in systems comprised of several autonomous mobile robots, and as a result, there has been a substantial amount of development in the eld of Articial Intelligence, especially in Robotics. There are several studies in the literature by some researchers from the scientic community that focus on the creation of intelligent machines and devices capable to imitate the functions and movements of living beings. Multi-Robot Systems (MRS) can often deal with tasks that are dicult, if not impossible, to be accomplished by a single robot. In the context of MRS, one of the main challenges is the need to control, coordinate and synchronize the operation of multiple robots to perform a specic task. This requires the development of new strategies and methods which allow us to obtain the desired system behavior in a formal and concise way. This PhD thesis aims to study the coordination of multi-robot systems, in particular, addresses the problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks. The main interest in these systems is to understand how from simple rules inspired by the division of labor in social insects, a group of robots can perform tasks in an organized and coordinated way. We are mainly interested on truly distributed or decentralized solutions in which the robots themselves, autonomously and in an individual manner, select a particular task so that all tasks are optimally distributed. In general, to perform the multi-tasks distribution among a team of robots, they have to synchronize their actions and exchange information. Under this approach we can speak of multi-tasks selection instead of multi-tasks assignment, which means, that the agents or robots select the tasks instead of being assigned a task by a central controller. The key element in these algorithms is the estimation ix of the stimuli and the adaptive update of the thresholds. This means that each robot performs this estimate locally depending on the load or the number of pending tasks to be performed. In addition, it is very interesting the evaluation of the results in function in each approach, comparing the results obtained by the introducing noise in the number of pending loads, with the purpose of simulate the robot's error in estimating the real number of pending tasks. The main contribution of this thesis can be found in the approach based on self-organization and division of labor in social insects. An experimental scenario for the coordination problem among multiple robots, the robustness of the approaches and the generation of dynamic tasks have been presented and discussed. The particular issues studied are: Threshold models: It presents the experiments conducted to test the response threshold model with the objective to analyze the system performance index, for the problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multitasks in multi-robot systems; also has been introduced additive noise in the number of pending loads and has been generated dynamic tasks over time. Learning automata methods: It describes the experiments to test the learning automata-based probabilistic algorithms. The approach was tested to evaluate the system performance index with additive noise and with dynamic tasks generation for the same problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks in multi-robot systems. Ant colony optimization: The goal of the experiments presented is to test the ant colony optimization-based deterministic algorithms, to achieve the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks in multi-robot systems. In the experiments performed, the system performance index is evaluated by introducing additive noise and dynamic tasks generation over time.

A simple genetic algorithm for calibration of stochastic rock discontinuity networks

Este artículo propone un método para llevar a cabo la calibración de las familias de discontinuidades en macizos rocosos. We present a novel approach for calibration of stochastic discontinuity network parameters based on genetic algorithms (GAs). To validate the approach, examples of application of the method to cases with known parameters of the original Poisson discontinuity network are presented. Parameters of the model are encoded as chromosomes using a binary representation, and such chromosomes evolve as successive generations of a randomly generated initial population, subjected to GA operations of selection, crossover and mutation. Such back-calculated parameters are employed to make assessments about the inference capabilities of the model using different objective functions with different probabilities of crossover and mutation. Results show that the predictive capabilities of GAs significantly depend on the type of objective function considered; and they also show that the calibration capabilities of the genetic algorithm can be acceptable for practical engineering applications, since in most cases they can be expected to provide parameter estimates with relatively small errors for those parameters of the network (such as intensity and mean size of discontinuities) that have the strongest influence on many engineering applications.

A non-perturbative renormalization group study of the stochastic NavierStokes equation

We study the renormalization group flow of the average action of the stochastic Navier-Stokes equation with power-law forcing. Using Galilean invariance, we introduce a nonperturbative approximation adapted to the zero-frequency sector of the theory in the parametric range of the Hölder exponent 4−2 ɛ of the forcing where real-space local interactions are relevant. In any spatial dimension d, we observe the convergence of the resulting renormalization group flow to a unique fixed point which yields a kinetic energy spectrum scaling in agreement with canonical dimension analysis. Kolmogorov's −5/3 law is, thus, recovered for ɛ=2 as also predicted by perturbative renormalization. At variance with the perturbative prediction, the −5/3 law emerges in the presence of a saturation in the ɛ dependence of the scaling dimension of the eddy diffusivity at ɛ=3/2 when, according to perturbative renormalization, the velocity field becomes infrared relevant.