A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

Development of operational performance models for truck-lane restrictions on freeway corridors

Highways are generally designed to serve a mixed traffic flow that consists of passenger cars, trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, etc. The fact that the impacts of these different vehicle types are not uniform creates problems in highway operations and safety. A common approach to reducing the impacts of truck traffic on freeways has been to restrict trucks to certain lane(s) to minimize the interaction between trucks and other vehicles and to compensate for their differences in operational characteristics. ^ The performance of different truck lane restriction alternatives differs under different traffic and geometric conditions. Thus, a good estimate of the operational performance of different truck lane restriction alternatives under prevailing conditions is needed to help make informed decisions on truck lane restriction alternatives. This study develops operational performance models that can be applied to help identify the most operationally efficient truck lane restriction alternative on a freeway under prevailing conditions. The operational performance measures examined in this study include average speed, throughput, speed difference, and lane changes. Prevailing conditions include number of lanes, interchange density, free-flow speeds, volumes, truck percentages, and ramp volumes. ^ Recognizing the difficulty of collecting sufficient data for an empirical modeling procedure that involves a high number of variables, the simulation approach was used to estimate the performance values for various truck lane restriction alternatives under various scenarios. Both the CORSIM and VISSIM simulation models were examined for their ability to model truck lane restrictions. Due to a major problem found in the CORSIM model for truck lane modeling, the VISSIM model was adopted as the simulator for this study. ^ The VISSIM model was calibrated mainly to replicate the capacity given in the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for various free-flow speeds under the ideal basic freeway section conditions. Non-linear regression models for average speed, throughput, average number of lane changes, and speed difference between the lane groups were developed. Based on the performance models developed, a simple decision procedure was recommended to select the desired truck lane restriction alternative for prevailing conditions. ^

Anti-Justice Burger demonstration where gays demonstrated against anti-gay government statements at NYC. Andy Humm is carrying the sign

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Ordering Quantiles through Confidence Statements

Ranking variables according to their relevance to predict an outcome is an important task in biomedicine. For instance, such ranking can be used for selecting a smaller number of genes to then apply other sophisticated experiments only on genes identified as important. A nonparametric method called Quor is designed to provide a confidence value for the order of arbitrary quantiles of different populations using independent samples. This confidence may provide insights about possible differences among groups and yields a ranking of importance for the variables. Computations are efficient and use exact distributions with no need for asymptotic considerations. Experiments with simulated data and with multiple real -omics data sets are performed and they show advantages and disadvantages of the method. Quor has no assumptions but independence of samples, thus it might be a better option when assumptions of other methods cannot be asserted. The software is publicly available on CRAN.

Road Life Perspectives and Experiences Among Iranian Truck Drivers: a Qualitative Study

Truck drivers are one of the largest occupational groups in Iran. Evidence from previous studies suggests that working and living conditions on the road engender many concerns for truck drivers, and their families and communities. This research aimed to explore the experiences of Iranian truck drivers regarding life on the road. This qualitative study was conducted among Iranian truck drivers working in the inter-state transportation sector. A purposeful sample of 20 truck drivers took part in this research. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed based on qualitative content analysis. After analysis of the data, three main themes emerged: "Individual impacts related to the hardships of life on the road life", "Family impacts related to the hardships of road life", and "Having positive attitude towards work and road". These findings represent the dimensions of perspectives in the road-life of truck drivers. Although truck drivers possess positive beliefs about their occupation and life on the road, they and their families face many hardships which should be well understood. They also need support to be better able to solve the road-life concerns they face. This study's findings are useful for occupational programming and in the promotion of health for truck drivers.

Evaluating the credibility of statements given by persons with intellectual disability

El objetivo del presente trabajo consistió en analizar las características diferenciales de los relatos emitidos por víctimas reales y simuladas con discapacidad intelectual ligera y moderada mediante el procedimiento de análisis de credibilidad de Control de la Realidad (RM). Dos evaluadores entrenados en los procedimientos de análisis de credibilidad mediante criterios de contenido evaluaron 13 relatos verdaderos y 16 relatos falsos. Los resultados encontrados muestran que existen pocas diferencias entre los dos tipos de relatos. Los únicos criterios que resultan significativos para discriminar entre los dos tipos de relatos son la cantidad de detalles y la longitud de las declaraciones espontáneas obtenidas mediante recuerdo libre. Ninguna de las características fenomenológicas examinadas resultó significativa para discriminar entre víctimas reales y simuladas. La representación gráfica mediante visualización hiperdimensional (HDV) considerando conjuntamente todos los criterios muestra una gran heterogeneidad entre relatos. Un análisis de conglomerados permitió clasificar los dos tipos de relatos con una probabilidad de acierto del 68.75 por ciento.

Effects of IFRS adoption on the financial statements of Nigerian listed entities: the case of oil and gas companies

On 28 July 2010, the Nigerian Federal Executive Council approved January 1, 2012 as the effective date for the convergence of Nigerian Statement of Accounting Standards (SAS) or Nigerian GAAP (NG-GAAP) with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). By this pronouncement, all publicly listed companies and significant public interest entities in Nigeria were statutorily required to issue IFRS based financial statements for the year ended December, 2012. This study investigates the impact of the adoption of IFRS on the financial statements of Nigerian listed Oil and Gas entities using six years of data which covers three years before and three years after IFRS adoption in Nigeria and other African countries. First, the study evaluates the impact of IFRS adoption on the Exploration and Evaluation (E&E) expenditures of listed Oil and Gas companies. Second, it examines the impact of IFRS adoption on the provision for decommissioning of Oil and Gas installations and environmental rehabilitation expenditures. Third, the study analyses the impact of the adoption of IFRS on the average daily Crude Oil production cost per Barrel. Fourth, it examines the extent to which the adoption and implementation of IFRS affects the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) of listed Oil and Gas companies. The study further explores the impact of IFRS adoption on the contractual relationships between Nigerian Government and Oil and Gas companies in terms of Joint Ventures (JVs) and Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) as it relates to taxes, royalties, bonuses and Profit Oil Split. A Paired Samples t-test, Wilcoxon Signed Rank test and Gray’s (Gray, 1980) Index of Conservatism analyses were conducted simultaneously where the accounting numbers, financial ratios and industry specific performance measures of GAAP and IFRS were computed and analysed and the significance of the differences of the mean, median and Conservatism Index values were compared before and after IFRS adoption. Questionnaires were then administered to the key stakeholders in the adoption and implementation of IFRS and the responses collated and analysed. The results of the analyses reveal that most of the accounting numbers, financial ratios and industry specific performance measures examined changed significantly as a result of the transition from GAAP to IFRS. The E&E expenditures and the mean cost of Crude Oil production per barrel of Oil and Gas companies increased significantly. The GAAP values of inventories, GPM, ROA, Equity and TA were also significantly different from the IFRS values. However, the differences in the provision for decommissioning expenditures were not statistically significant. Gray’s (Gray, 1980) Conservatism Index shows that Oil and Gas companies were more conservative under GAAP when compared to the IFRS regime. The Questionnaire analyses reveal that IFRS based financial statements are of higher quality, easier to prepare and present to management and easier to compare among competitors across the Oil and Gas sector but slightly more difficult to audit compared to GAAP based financial statements. To my knowledge, this is the first empirical research to investigate the impact of IFRS adoption on the financial statements of listed Oil and Gas companies. The study will therefore make an enormous contribution to academic literature and body of knowledge and void the existing knowledge gap regarding the impact and implications of IFRS adoption on the financial statements of Oil and Gas companies.

Evaluation of ergonomic approach and musculoskeletal disorders in two different organizations in a truck assembly plant

International audience

Evaluation of ergonomic physical risk factors in a truck manufacturing plant: case study in SCANIA Production Angers

International audience

An extension of STARD statements for reporting diagnostic accuracy studies on liver fibrosis tests: the Liver-FibroSTARD standards

International audience

Effects of truck traffic on top-down fatigue cracking performance of flexible pavements using a new mechanics-based analysis framework

The mechanics-based analysis framework predicts top-down fatigue cracking initiation time in asphalt concrete pavements by utilising fracture mechanics and mixture morphology-based property. To reduce the level of complexity involved, traffic data were characterised and incorporated into the framework using the equivalent single axle load (ESAL) approach. There is a concern that this kind of simplistic traffic characterisation might result in erroneous performance predictions and pavement structural designs. This paper integrates axle load spectra and other traffic characterisation parameters into the mechanics-based analysis framework and studies the impact these traffic characterisation parameters have on predicted fatigue cracking performance. The traffic characterisation inputs studied are traffic growth rate, axle load spectra, lateral wheel wander and volume adjustment factors. For this purpose, a traffic integration approach which incorporates Monte Carlo simulation and representative traffic characterisation inputs was developed. The significance of these traffic characterisation parameters was established by evaluating a number of field pavement sections. It is evident from the results that all the traffic characterisation parameters except truck wheel wander have been observed to have significant influence on predicted top-down fatigue cracking performance.

The effect on CO2 emissions of taxing truck distance in retail transports

To finance transportation infrastructure and to address social and environmental negative externalities of road transports, several countries have recently introduced or consider a distance based tax on trucks. In competitive retail and transportation markets, such tax can be expected to lower the demand and thereby reduce CO2 emissions of road transports. However, as we show in this paper, such tax might also slow down the transition towards e-tailing. Considering that previous research indicates that a consumer switching from brick-and-mortar shopping to e-tailing reduces her CO2 emissions substantially, the direction and magnitude of the environmental net effect of the tax is unclear. In this paper, we assess the net effect in a Swedish regional retail market where the tax not yet is in place. We predict the net effect on CO2 emissions to be positive, but off-set by about 50% because of a slower transition to e-tailing.

Iowa Public Television independent auditor's reports, basic financial statements and supplementary information, June 30 2009.

Audit report on Iowa Public Television for the year ended June 30, 2009