Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Spanish ribbed vaults in the 15th and 16th centuries

Proceedings of the First International Congress on Construction History : Madrid, 20th-24th January 2003

Looking at the Sky : Spanish Architects for the Third Millenium = Mirando al cielo

Looking at the Sky

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

Spanish Trade Center en Londres. 1974

Spanish Trade Center en Londres. 1974

Applied genre analysis: the case of introductions in spanish teacher trainees curricular design documents

A host of studies over the years have been published on introductions to research articles across a variety of fields. However, much less attention has been paid to professional or workplace introductions as well as student written introductions. This study aims to redress this imbalance by studying the writing samples of four primary English teacher trainees’ introductions to curricular design i.e. the document candidates must present to an examination board in Spain. This genre can be considered occluded in that exemplars are private and confidential and not readily available to the aspiring candidate. Three recurrent moves were identified, namely, explaining the importance of curricular design, providing background and defining concepts. Instances of self-glorification (Bhatia 1996) were revealed. The implications of the findings can have a positive effect on students’ future writing. RESUMEN. Se han publicado varios estudios en los últimos años sobre las introducciones de los artículos de investigación en varios campos. Sin embargo, se ha prestado mucha menor atención a las introducciones en los ámbitos profesionales o las introducciones en el lugar de trabajo, así como a las introducciones escritas por estudiantes. Este estudio tiene por objeto corregir este desequilibrio mediante el análisis de cuatro introducciones redactadas por candidatos para las oposiciones públicas de profesores de inglés de primaria. Este género se puede considerar oculto puesto que las muestras de dichas introducciones no están publicadas. El análisis de estas introducciones muestra que hay tres movimientos recurrentes: una explicación de la importancia del diseño curricular, definición del contexto educativo y, por último, definición de conceptos. Hay ejemplos en este estudio empírico de auto-promoción (Bhatia 1996). Las implicaciones de los resultados pueden tener un efecto positivo en la escritura de estos estudiantes en el futuro.

Bilingual Polytechnic Dictionary of Metaphors: Spanish to English

This paper provides an overview of an ongoing research project work: “A Polytechnical Bilingual Dictionary of Metaphors: Spanish-English/English-Spanish” done by the UPM consolidated research group “DISCYT” (Estudios Cognitivos del Discurso Científico-Técnico). A detailed explanation of the method adopted to identify key metaphors collected from the different subject areas is included. Drawing from recognized empirical methods (Pragglejaz 2007, Cameron 2007, Steen 2007), the examples have been examined according to the main tenets of conceptual metaphor and conceptual integration theory (Deignan 2005, Gibbs 2008, Lakoff 1993, Lakoff & Johnson 1999, Steen 2007, Fauconnier & Turner 2008). This forthcoming dictionary comprises metaphors of over 10 scientific and technical areas such as Aeronautical engineering, Agronomy, Architecture, Biotechnology, Civil engineering, Geology and Mining, Mechanical engineering, Nanotechnology, Naval and Maritime engineering, Sports and Telecommunications. In this paper, we focus on the study of examples taken from civil engineering, materials engineering and naval engineering. Representative cases are analyzed from several points of view (multimodal metaphor, linguistic information strategies and translation into target language) highlighting cross linguistic variations between Spanish and English.

Semantic Neology in the Domain of Videogames in Spanish.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the meaning of five neologisms in the domain of videogames in Spanish: título, aventura, personaje, plataforma, and rol. Our study focuses on a special type of neologism since the Spanish terms we deal with here are not strictly new words; they are what have been called sense neologisms or neosemanticisms, that is, old words taking a new sense in a different domain. These words were identified as new concepts after a process of analysis based on contextual evidence. This study of neology is based on the analysis of a corpus of press articles evaluating videogames published by the Spanish newspaper El País from 1998 to 2008. The analysis of the instances of use of domain specific terms in the corpus revealed that they acquired new senses different to those they have in other domains where they are also used. The paper explains the process of discovering the specialized meaning these words have developed in the domain of videogames and how the analysis of collocational behavior helps in the process of discovering the new sense and in the design of the definition provided. RESUMEN: En este trabajo se presentan cinco neologismos del ámbito del videojuego en español: “título”, “aventura”, “personaje”, “plataforma” y “rol”. Se trata de un tipo especial de neologismo, conocido también como “neologismo semántico” o “neosemanticismo”, ya que son palabras ya existentes en la lengua que adquieren un nuevo significado. Los nuevos significados que adquieren estos términos en el ámbito del videojuego se establecieron tras el análisis del contexto de uso en un corpus periodístico de críticas de videojuegos. Este corpus recoge las críticas de videojuegos publicadas por el periódico El País entre 1998 y 2008. El análisis de los casos de uso de los términos en el corpus de videojuegos reveló que adquirían un nuevo significado diferente al de su uso en otros ámbitos o en el lenguaje general. El artículo describe cada uno de los neologismos y el proceso de análisis contextual que conduce a descubrir el nuevo significado y elaborar su definición.

Bibliography of Spanish Muslim Art 1939-1946

Bibliography of Spanish Muslim Art 1939-1946

Spanish Pavilion, Expo Milano 2015

PERFORANDO LAS NUBES. En colaboración con Studio Melesi

Sistema de simulación de escenarios de ciclos avanzados de combustible nuclear en transición = Simulation system for advanced fuel cycle transition scenarios

El estudio de los ciclos del combustible nuclear requieren de herramientas computacionales o "códigos" versátiles para dar respuestas al problema multicriterio de evaluar los actuales ciclos o las capacidades de las diferentes estrategias y escenarios con potencial de desarrollo en a nivel nacional, regional o mundial. Por otra parte, la introducción de nuevas tecnologías para reactores y procesos industriales hace que los códigos existentes requieran nuevas capacidades para evaluar la transición del estado actual del ciclo del combustible hacia otros más avanzados y sostenibles. Brevemente, esta tesis se centra en dar respuesta a las principales preguntas, en términos económicos y de recursos, al análisis de escenarios de ciclos de combustible, en particular, para el análisis de los diferentes escenarios del ciclo del combustible de relativa importancia para España y Europa. Para alcanzar este objetivo ha sido necesaria la actualización y el desarrollo de nuevas capacidades del código TR_EVOL (Transition Evolution code). Este trabajo ha sido desarrollado en el Programa de Innovación Nuclear del CIEMAT desde el año 2010. Esta tesis se divide en 6 capítulos. El primer capítulo ofrece una visión general del ciclo de combustible nuclear, sus principales etapas y los diferentes tipos utilizados en la actualidad o en desarrollo para el futuro. Además, se describen las fuentes de material nuclear que podrían ser utilizadas como combustible (uranio y otros). También se puntualizan brevemente una serie de herramientas desarrolladas para el estudio de estos ciclos de combustible nuclear. El capítulo 2 está dirigido a dar una idea básica acerca de los costes involucrados en la generación de electricidad mediante energía nuclear. Aquí se presentan una clasificación de estos costos y sus estimaciones, obtenidas en la bibliografía, y que han sido evaluadas y utilizadas en esta tesis. Se ha incluido también una breve descripción del principal indicador económico utilizado en esta tesis, el “coste nivelado de la electricidad”. El capítulo 3 se centra en la descripción del código de simulación desarrollado para el estudio del ciclo del combustible nuclear, TR_EVOL, que ha sido diseñado para evaluar diferentes opciones de ciclos de combustibles. En particular, pueden ser evaluados las diversos reactores con, posiblemente, diferentes tipos de combustibles y sus instalaciones del ciclo asociadas. El módulo de evaluaciones económica de TR_EVOL ofrece el coste nivelado de la electricidad haciendo uso de las cuatro fuentes principales de información económica y de la salida del balance de masas obtenido de la simulación del ciclo en TR_EVOL. Por otra parte, la estimación de las incertidumbres en los costes también puede ser efectuada por el código. Se ha efectuado un proceso de comprobación cruzada de las funcionalidades del código y se descrine en el Capítulo 4. El proceso se ha aplicado en cuatro etapas de acuerdo con las características más importantes de TR_EVOL, balance de masas, composición isotópica y análisis económico. Así, la primera etapa ha consistido en el balance masas del ciclo de combustible nuclear actual de España. La segunda etapa se ha centrado en la comprobación de la composición isotópica del flujo de masas mediante el la simulación del ciclo del combustible definido en el proyecto CP-ESFR UE. Las dos últimas etapas han tenido como objetivo validar el módulo económico. De este modo, en la tercera etapa han sido evaluados los tres principales costes (financieros, operación y mantenimiento y de combustible) y comparados con los obtenidos por el proyecto ARCAS, omitiendo los costes del fin del ciclo o Back-end, los que han sido evaluado solo en la cuarta etapa, haciendo uso de costes unitarios y parámetros obtenidos a partir de la bibliografía. En el capítulo 5 se analizan dos grupos de opciones del ciclo del combustible nuclear de relevante importancia, en términos económicos y de recursos, para España y Europa. Para el caso español, se han simulado dos grupos de escenarios del ciclo del combustible, incluyendo estrategias de reproceso y extensión de vida de los reactores. Este análisis se ha centrado en explorar las ventajas y desventajas de reprocesado de combustible irradiado en un país con una “relativa” pequeña cantidad de reactores nucleares. Para el grupo de Europa se han tratado cuatro escenarios, incluyendo opciones de transmutación. Los escenarios incluyen los reactores actuales utilizando la tecnología reactor de agua ligera y ciclo abierto, un reemplazo total de los reactores actuales con reactores rápidos que queman combustible U-Pu MOX y dos escenarios del ciclo del combustible con transmutación de actínidos minoritarios en una parte de los reactores rápidos o en sistemas impulsados por aceleradores dedicados a transmutación. Finalmente, el capítulo 6 da las principales conclusiones obtenidas de esta tesis y los trabajos futuros previstos en el campo del análisis de ciclos de combustible nuclear. ABSTRACT The study of the nuclear fuel cycle requires versatile computational tools or “codes” to provide answers to the multicriteria problem of assessing current nuclear fuel cycles or the capabilities of different strategies and scenarios with potential development in a country, region or at world level. Moreover, the introduction of new technologies for reactors and industrial processes makes the existing codes to require new capabilities to assess the transition from current status of the fuel cycle to the more advanced and sustainable ones. Briefly, this thesis is focused in providing answers to the main questions about resources and economics in fuel cycle scenario analyses, in particular for the analysis of different fuel cycle scenarios with relative importance for Spain and Europe. The upgrade and development of new capabilities of the TR_EVOL code (Transition Evolution code) has been necessary to achieve this goal. This work has been developed in the Nuclear Innovation Program at CIEMAT since year 2010. This thesis is divided in 6 chapters. The first one gives an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle, its main stages and types currently used or in development for the future. Besides the sources of nuclear material that could be used as fuel (uranium and others) are also viewed here. A number of tools developed for the study of these nuclear fuel cycles are also briefly described in this chapter. Chapter 2 is aimed to give a basic idea about the cost involved in the electricity generation by means of the nuclear energy. The main classification of these costs and their estimations given by bibliography, which have been evaluated in this thesis, are presented. A brief description of the Levelized Cost of Electricity, the principal economic indicator used in this thesis, has been also included. Chapter 3 is focused on the description of the simulation tool TR_EVOL developed for the study of the nuclear fuel cycle. TR_EVOL has been designed to evaluate different options for the fuel cycle scenario. In particular, diverse nuclear power plants, having possibly different types of fuels and the associated fuel cycle facilities can be assessed. The TR_EVOL module for economic assessments provides the Levelized Cost of Electricity making use of the TR_EVOL mass balance output and four main sources of economic information. Furthermore, uncertainties assessment can be also carried out by the code. A cross checking process of the performance of the code has been accomplished and it is shown in Chapter 4. The process has been applied in four stages according to the most important features of TR_EVOL. Thus, the first stage has involved the mass balance of the current Spanish nuclear fuel cycle. The second stage has been focused in the isotopic composition of the mass flow using the fuel cycle defined in the EU project CP-ESFR. The last two stages have been aimed to validate the economic module. In the third stage, the main three generation costs (financial cost, O&M and fuel cost) have been assessed and compared to those obtained by ARCAS project, omitting the back-end costs. This last cost has been evaluated alone in the fourth stage, making use of some unit cost and parameters obtained from the bibliography. In Chapter 5 two groups of nuclear fuel cycle options with relevant importance for Spain and Europe are analyzed in economic and resources terms. For the Spanish case, two groups of fuel cycle scenarios have been simulated including reprocessing strategies and life extension of the current reactor fleet. This analysis has been focused on exploring the advantages and disadvantages of spent fuel reprocessing in a country with relatively small amount of nuclear power plants. For the European group, four fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor technology and open fuel cycle, a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycle scenarios with Minor Actinide transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems. Finally, Chapter 6 gives the main conclusions obtained from this thesis and the future work foreseen in the field of nuclear fuel cycle analysis.

Polymetallic ferromanganese deposits research on the Atlantic Spanish continental margin

Seamounts, submarine banks, volcanoes and undercurrent channels are prominent geomorphic features that have become an important target for minerals research and exploration with the goal of future exploitation. Polymetallic ferromanganese deposits are common types of mineralization on these settings. Co-rich ferromanganese crusts are important as potential resources of Mn and Co, but also Ti, Ni, Tl, REEs, PGEs, and other metals. Many seamounts and channels along the Atlantic Spanish continental margin are known to hold mineral deposits but are poorly studied. This work presents and briefly describes the most recent activities of the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) on exploration and investigation of ferromanganese deposits along the Atlantic Spanish continental margin. Different submarine areas from the northwestern margin of the Iberian Peninsula to the west off Canary Islands have been surveyed by geophysical, sampling and underwater observations from 89 to 4000 m water depth. The mineral deposits cover a large diversity of submarine geological and geomorphical features: mud volcanoes and diapirs related to hydrocarbon seeps, seamounts associated with hot spot volcanism, hydrothermal vents in active magmatic volcanoes, structural basement highs and banks or contourite channels. Considering the collected dataset, we present the preliminary results of the study of these mineral deposits, including ferromanganese nodules and crusts and phosphate pavements and nodules, which can be considered as potential sources of raw materials.

Leakage of nitrous oxide emissions within the Spanish agro-food system in 1961-2009

Abstract In this paper we examine the trends of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of the Spanish agricultural sector related to national production and consumption in the 1961?2009 period.The comparison between production- and consumption-based emissions at the national level provides a complete overview of the actual impact resulting from the dietary choices of a given country and allows the evaluation of potential emission leakages. On average, 1.5 % of the new reactive nitrogen that enters Spain every year is emitted as N2O. Production- and consumption-based emissions have both significantly increased in the period studied and nowadays consumption-based emissions are 45 % higher than production-based emissions. A large proportion of the net N2O emissions associated with imported agricultural godos comes from countries that are not committers for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol Annex I. An increase in feed consumption is the main driver of the changes observed, leading to a arkable emission leakage in the Spanish agricultural sector. The complementary approach used here is essential to achieve an effective mitigation of Spanish greenhouse gas emissions.

Occurrence of moulds associated with ovine raw milk and cheeses of the Spanish region of Castilla La Mancha

The distribution of mould species was examined at several points of the processing chain in a Manchego cheese plant and associated dairy farms. Geotrichum and Fusarium were the most frequent genera isolated in milk samples as well as in 1-month ripened cheeses, evidencing a direct transfer from raw milk. Conversely, the mycobiota of long-ripened cheeses consisted mainly of Penicillium species, which gained entry to the cheese through the air of ripening rooms. This study contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of fungal populations in semihard and hard cheeses, highlighting that airborne transfer from the stables could have a direct impact on their quality.

Growth rate and TRI5 gene expression profiles of Fusarium equiseti strains isolated from Spanish cereals cultivated on wheat and barley media at different environmental conditions

Fusarium equiseti is a toxigenic species that often contaminates ce real crops from diverse climatic regions such as Northern and Southern Europe. Previous results suggested the existence of two distinct populations within this species with differences in toxin pro file which largely corresponded to North and South Europe (Spain). In this work, growth rate profiles of 4 F. equiseti strains isolated from different cereals and distinct Spanish regions were determined on wheat and barley based media at a range of temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 °C) and water potentialregimens(−0.7,−2.8,−7.0,and −9.8MPa,correspondingto 0.99,0.98,0.95 and 0.93aw values).Growth was observed at all temperatures except at 40 °C, and at all the solute potential values except at−9.8 MPa when combined with 15 °C. Optimal growth was observed at 20– 30 °C and −0.7/−2.8 MPa. The effect of these factors on trichothecene biosynthesis was examined on a F. equiseti strain using a newly developed real time RT-PCR protocol to quantify TRI5 gene expression at 15, 25 and 35 °C and −0.7, −2.8, − 7.0 and −9.8 MPa on wheat and barley based media. Induction of TRI5 expression was detected between 25 and 35 °C and −0.7 and − 2.8 MPa, with maximum values at 35 °C and −2.8 MPa being higher in barley than in wheat medium. These results appeared to be consistent with a population well adapted to the present climatic conditions and predicted scenarios for Southern Europe and suggested some differences depending on the cereal considered. These are also discussed in relation to other Fusarium species co-occurring in cereals grown in this region and to their significance for prediction and control strategies of toxigenic risk in future scenarios of climate change for this region.