Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Spatial correlations between the vacuolation, prion protein (PrPsc) deposits and the cerebral blood vessels in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

In the variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), 'florid' deposits of the protease resistant form of prion protein (PrP(sc)) were aggregated around the cerebral blood vessels suggesting the possibility that prions may spread into the brain via the cerebral microcirculation. The objective of the present study was to determine whether the pathology was spatially related to blood vessels in cases of sporadic CJD (sCJD), a disease without an iatrogenic etiology, and therefore, less likely to be caused by hematogenous spread. Hence, the spatial correlations between the vacuolation ('spongiform change'), PrP(sc) deposits, and the blood vessels were studied in immunolabelled sections of the cerebral cortex and cerebellum in eleven cases of the common M/M1 subtype of sCJD. Both the vacuolation and the PrP(sc) deposits were spatially correlated with the blood vessels; the PrP(sc) deposits being more focally distributed around the vessels than the vacuoles. The frequency of positive spatial correlations was similar in the different gyri of the cerebral cortex, in the upper and lower cortical laminae, and in the molecular layer of the cerebellum. It is hypothesized that the spatial correlation is attributable to factors associated with the blood vessels which promote the aggregation of PrP(sc) to form deposits rather than representing the hematogenous spread of the disease. The aggregated form of PrP(sc) then enhances cell death and may encourages the development of vacuolation in the vicinity of the blood vessels.

Measuring the spatial arrangement patterns of pathological lesions in histological sections of brain tissue

The development of abnormal protein aggregates in the form of extracellular plaques and intracellular inclusions is a characteristic feature of many neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and the fronto-temporal dementias (FTD). An important aspect of a pathological protein aggregate is its spatial topography in the tissue. Lesions may not be randomly distributed within a histological section but exhibit spatial pattern, a departure from randomness either towards regularity or clustering. Information on the spatial pattern of a lesion may be useful in elucidating its pathogenesis and in studying the relationships between different lesions. This article reviews the methods that have been used to study the spatial topography of lesions. These include simple tests of whether the distribution of a lesion departs significantly from random using randomized points or sample fields, and more complex methods that employ grids or transects of contiguous fields and which can detect the intensity of aggregation and the sizes, distribution and spacing of the clusters. The usefulness of these methods in elucidating the pathogenesis of protein aggregates in neurodegenerative disease is discussed.

Empirical analysis of human capital development and economic growth in Europe

Recent discussion of the knowledge-based economy draws increasingly attention to the role that the creation and management of knowledge plays in economic development. Development of human capital, the principal mechanism for knowledge creation and management, becomes a central issue for policy-makers and practitioners at the regional, as well as national, level. Facing competition both within and across nations, regional policy-makers view human capital development as a key to strengthening the positions of their economies in the global market. Against this background, the aim of this study is to go some way towards answering the question of whether, and how, investment in education and vocational training at regional level provides these territorial units with comparative advantages. The study reviews literature in economics and economic geography on economic growth (Chapter 2). In growth model literature, human capital has gained increased recognition as a key production factor along with physical capital and labour. Although leaving technical progress as an exogenous factor, neoclassical Solow-Swan models have improved their estimates through the inclusion of human capital. In contrast, endogenous growth models place investment in research at centre stage in accounting for technical progress. As a result, they often focus upon research workers, who embody high-order human capital, as a key variable in their framework. An issue of discussion is how human capital facilitates economic growth: is it the level of its stock or its accumulation that influences the rate of growth? In addition, these economic models are criticised in economic geography literature for their failure to consider spatial aspects of economic development, and particularly for their lack of attention to tacit knowledge and urban environments that facilitate the exchange of such knowledge. Our empirical analysis of European regions (Chapter 3) shows that investment by individuals in human capital formation has distinct patterns. Those regions with a higher level of investment in tertiary education tend to have a larger concentration of information and communication technology (ICT) sectors (including provision of ICT services and manufacture of ICT devices and equipment) and research functions. Not surprisingly, regions with major metropolitan areas where higher education institutions are located show a high enrolment rate for tertiary education, suggesting a possible link to the demand from high-order corporate functions located there. Furthermore, the rate of human capital development (at the level of vocational type of upper secondary education) appears to have significant association with the level of entrepreneurship in emerging industries such as ICT-related services and ICT manufacturing, whereas such association is not found with traditional manufacturing industries. In general, a high level of investment by individuals in tertiary education is found in those regions that accommodate high-tech industries and high-order corporate functions such as research and development (R&D). These functions are supported through the urban infrastructure and public science base, facilitating exchange of tacit knowledge. They also enjoy a low unemployment rate. However, the existing stock of human and physical capital in those regions with a high level of urban infrastructure does not lead to a high rate of economic growth. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the rate of economic growth is determined by the accumulation of human and physical capital, not by level of their existing stocks. We found no significant effects of scale that would favour those regions with a larger stock of human capital. The primary policy implication of our study is that, in order to facilitate economic growth, education and training need to supply human capital at a faster pace than simply replenishing it as it disappears from the labour market. Given the significant impact of high-order human capital (such as business R&D staff in our case study) as well as the increasingly fast pace of technological change that makes human capital obsolete, a concerted effort needs to be made to facilitate its continuous development.

Spatial correlations between the neuronal inclusions, swollen achromatic neurons, and glial cells in neuronal intermediate filament inclusion disease (NIFID)

Neuronal intermediate filament (IF) inclusion disease (NIFID) is characterized by neuronal loss, neuronal cytoplasmic IF-positive inclusions (NI), swollen neurons (SN), and a glial cell reaction. We studied the spatial correlations between the clusters of NI, SN, and glial cells in four gyri of the temporal lobe (superior temporal gyrus, inferior temporal gyrus, lateral occipitotemporal gyrus, and parahippocampal gyrus) in four cases of NIFID. The densities of histological features (per 50x250 μ sample field) were as follows: NI (mean = 0.41, range 0.28-0.68), SN (mean = 1.41, range 0.47-2.65), glial cell nuclei (mean = 5.21, range 3.63-8.17). The NI and the SN were positively correlated in half of the brain regions examined, the correlations being present at the smallest field size (50x250 μm). The NI were also positively or negatively correlated with the glial cell nuclei in different areas, the negative correlations being present at the smallest field size. Glial cell nuclei were positively or negatively correlated with the SN in different brain areas, mainly at the larger field sizes (400x250 and 800x250 μm). The spatial correlation between the clusters of NI and SN in the cortex suggests their development within the same columns of cells. At first, the glial cell reaction is also confined to these columns but later becomes more generally distributed across the cortex. © Springer-Verlag 2004.

Spatial patterns of the pathological changes in the cerebellar cortex in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD)

The spatial patterns of the vacuolation ("spongiform change"), surviving cells, and prion protein (PrP) deposition were studied in the various cell laminae of the cerebellar cortex in 11 cases of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD). Clustering of the histological features, with the clusters regularly distributed along the folia, was evident in all cell laminae. In the molecular layer, clusters of vacuoles coincided with the surviving Purkinje cells. In the granule cell layer, however, the spatial relationship between the vacuoles and surviving cells was more complex and varied between cases. PrP deposition was not spatially correlated with either the vacuoles or the surviving cells in any of the cerebellar laminae in the majority of cases. In some cases, there were spatial relationships between th histological features in the molecular and granule cell layers. The data suggest that degeneration of the cerebellar cortex in sCJD may occur in a topographic pattern consistent with the spread of prion pathology along anatomical pathways. The development of the vacuolation may be an early stage of the pathology in the cerebellum preceding the appearance of the PrP deposits. In addition, there is evidence that the pathological changes may spread across the different laminae of the cerebellar cortex.

The spatial patterns of prion protein deposits in cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

The spatial patterns of the prion protein (PrP) deposits were studied in immunostained sections of areas of the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, dentate gyrus, and the molecular layer of the cerebellum in 11 cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). Clustering of PrP deposits, with a regular distribution of the clusters parallel to the tissue boundary, was the most common spatial pattern observed. Two morphological types of PrP deposit were recognised, those consisting of a condensed core (florid deposits) and those deposits lacking a condensed core (non-florid deposits). The florid and non-florid PrP deposits exhibited a different profile of spatial patterns. First, the florid deposits exhibited a regularly distributed pattern of clusters more frequently than the non-florid deposits. Second, the florid deposits formed larger clusters (greater than1,600 µm in diameter) less frequently than the non-florid deposits. In the areas of the cerebral cortex that exhibited a regular distribution of PrP deposit clusters, the cluster size of the deposits approximated that of the groups of cells of the cortico-cortical pathway origin in only 12% of analyses. No significant differences in the frequency of the different types of spatial pattern were observed in different brain regions, or in the cerebral cortex between the upper and lower laminae. It was concluded that the spatial patterns of the PrP deposits in the cerebral cortex in vCJD are unlikely to reflect the degeneration of the cortico-cortical pathways as has been reported in sporadic CJD (sCJD). In addition, different factors could be involved in the development of the deposits with and without a condensed core.

The spatial patterns of beta-amyloid deposits and neurofibrillary tangles in the cerebral cortex in Alzheimer's disease

In Alzheimer's disease (AD) brain, beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) are not randomly distributed but exhibit a spatial pattern, i.e., a departure from randomness towards regularity or clustering. Studies of the spatial pattern of a lesion may contribute to an understanding of its pathogenesis and therefore, of AD itself. This article describes the statistical methods most commonly used to detect the spatial patterns of brain lesions and the types of spatial patterns exhibited by ß-amyloid deposits and NFT in the cerebral cortex in AD. These studies suggest that within the cerebral cortex, Abeta deposits and NFT exhibit a similar spatial pattern, i.e., an aggregation of individual lesions into clusters which are regularly distributed parallel to the pia mater. The location, size and distribution of these clusters supports the hypothesis that AD is a 'disconnection syndrome' in which degeneration of specific cortical pathways results in the formation of clusters of NFT and Abeta deposits. In addition, a model to explain the development of the pathology within the cerebral cortex is proposed.

Spatial pattern analysis of beta-amyloid (A beta) deposits in Alzheimer disease by linear regression

The spatial patterns of discrete beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits in brain tissue from patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) were studied using a statistical method based on linear regression, the results being compared with the more conventional variance/mean (V/M) method. Both methods suggested that Abeta deposits occurred in clusters (400 to <12,800 mu m in diameter) in all but 1 of the 42 tissues examined. In many tissues, a regular periodicity of the Abeta deposit clusters parallel to the tissue boundary was observed. In 23 of 42 (55%) tissues, the two methods revealed essentially the same spatial patterns of Abeta deposits; in 15 of 42 (36%), the regression method indicated the presence of clusters at a scale not revealed by the V/M method; and in 4 of 42 (9%), there was no agreement between the two methods. Perceived advantages of the regression method are that there is a greater probability of detecting clustering at multiple scales, the dimension of larger Abeta clusters can be estimated more accurately, and the spacing between the clusters may be estimated. However, both methods may be useful, with the regression method providing greater resolution and the V/M method providing greater simplicity and ease of interpretation. Estimates of the distance between regularly spaced Abeta clusters were in the range 2,200-11,800 mu m, depending on tissue and cluster size. The regular periodicity of Abeta deposit clusters in many tissues would be consistent with their development in relation to clusters of neurons that give rise to specific neuronal projections.

The spatial patterns of beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits in elderly non-demented patients and patients with Alzheimer’s disease

The spatial patterns of diffuse, primitive, classic and compact beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits were studied in the medial temporal lobe in 14 elderly, non-demented patients (ND) and in nine patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In both patient groups, Abeta deposits were clustered and in a number of tissues, a regular periodicity of Abeta deposit clusters was observed parallel to the tissue boundary. The primitive deposit clusters were significantly larger in the AD cases but there were no differences in the sizes of the diffuse and classic deposit clusters between patient groups. In AD, the relationship between Abeta deposit cluster size and density in the tissue was non-linear. This suggested that cluster size increased with increasing Abeta deposit density in some tissues while in others, Abeta deposit density was high but contained within smaller clusters. It was concluded that the formation of large clusters of primitive deposits could be a factor in the development of AD.