The impact of information on decision-making in palliative care

Résumé Ce travail vise à clarifier les résultats contradictoires de la littérature concernant les besoins des patients d'être informés et de participer à la prise de décision. La littérature insiste sur le contenu de l'information comme base de la prise de décision, bien qu'il existe des preuves que d'autres contenus sont importants pour les patients. La thèse essaie en outre d'identifier des possibilités de mieux répondre aux préférences d'information et de participation des patients. Les travaux ont porté en particulier sur les soins palliatifs. Une analyse de la littérature donne un aperçu sur les soins palliatifs, sur l'information des patients et sur leur participation à la prise de décisions thérapeutiques. Cette analyse résume les résultats d'études précédentes et propose un: modèle théorique d'information, de prise de décision et de relation entre ces deux domaines. Dans le cadre de ce travail, deux études empiriques ont utilisé des questionnaires écrits adressés à des personnes privées et à des professionnels de la santé, couvrant la Suisse et le Royaume Uni, pour identifier d'éventuelles différences entre ces deux pays. Les enquêtes ont été focalisées sur des patients souffrant de cancer du poumon. Les instruments utilisés pour ces études proviennent de la littérature afin de les rendre comparables. Le taux de réponse aux questionnaires était de 30-40%. La majorité des participants aux enquêtes estime que les patients devraient: - collaborer à la prise de décision quant à leur traitement - recevoir autant d'information que possible, positive aussi bien que négative - recevoir toutes les informations mentionnées dans le questionnaire (concernant la maladie, le diagnostic et les traitements), tenant compte de la diversité des priorités des patients - être soutenus par des professionnels de la santé, leur famille, leurs amis et/ou les personnes souffrant de la même maladie En plus, les participants aux enquêtes ont identifié divers contenus de l'information aux patients souffrant d'une maladie grave. Ces contenus comprennent entre autres: - L'aide à la prise de décision concernant le traitement - la possibilité de maintenir le contrôle de la situation - la construction d'une relation entre le patient et le soignant - l'encouragement à faire des projets d'avenir - l'influence de l'état émotionnel - l'aide à la compréhension de la maladie et de son impact - les sources potentielles d'états confusionnels et d'états anxieux La plupart des contenus proposés sont positifs. Les résultats suggèrent la coexistence possible de différents contenus à un moment donné ainsi que leur changement au cours du temps. Un modèle est ensuite développé et commenté pour présenter le diagnostic d'une maladie grave. Ce modèle est basé sur la littérature et intègre les résultats des études empiriques réalisées dans le cadre de ce travail. Ce travail analyse également les sources préférées d'information et de soutien, facteurs qui peuvent influencer ou faire obstacle aux préférences d'information et de participation. Les deux groupes de participants considèrent les médecins spécialistes comme la meilleure source d'information. En ce qui concerne le soutien, les points de vue divergent entre les personnes privées et les professionnels de la santé: généralement, les rôles de soutien semblent peu définis parmi les professionnels. Les barrières à l'information adéquate du patient apparaissent fréquemment liées aux caractéristiques des professionnels et aux problèmes d'organisation. Des progrès dans ce domaine contribueraient à améliorer les soins fournis aux patients. Finalement, les limites des études empiriques sont discutées. Celles-ci comprennent, entre autres, la représentativité restreinte des participants et les objections de certains groupes de participants à quelques détails des questionnaires. Summary The present thesis follows a call from the current body of literature to better understand patient needs for information and for participation in decision-making, as previous research findings had been contradictory. Information so far seems to have been considered essentially as a means to making treatment decisions, despite certain evidence that it may have a number of other values to patients. Furthermore, the thesis aims to identify ways to optimise meeting patient preferences for information and participation in treatment decisions. The current field of interest is palliative care. An extensive literature review depicts the background of current concepts of palliative care, patient information and patient involvement into treatment decisions. It also draws together results from previous studies and develops a theoretical model of information, decision-making, and the relationship between them. This is followed by two empirical studies collecting data from members of the general public and health care professionals by means of postal questionnaires. The professional study covers both Switzerland and the United Kingdom in order to identify possible differences between countries. Both studies focus on newly diagnosed lung cancer patients. The instruments used were taken from the literature to make them comparable. The response rate in both surveys was 30-40%, as expected -sufficient to allow stastical tests to be performed. A third study, addressed to lung cancer patients themselves, turned out to require too much time within the frame available. A majority of both study populations thought that patients should: - have a collaborative role in treatment-related decision-making -receive as much information as possible, good or bad - receive all types of information mentioned in the questionnaire (about illness, tests, and treatment), although priorities varied across the study populations - be supported by health professionals, family members, friends and/or others with the same illness Furthermore they identified various 'meanings' information may have to patients with a serious illness. These included: - being an aid in treatment-related decision-making - allowing control to be maintained over the situation - helping the patient-professional relationship to be constructed - allowing plans to be made - being positive for the patient's emotional state - helping the illness and its impact to be understood - being a source of anxiety - being a potential source of confusion to the patient Meanings were mostly positive. It was suggested that different meanings could co-exist at a given time and that they might change over time. A model of coping with the disclosure of a serious diagnosis is then developped. This model is based on existing models of coping with threatening events, as takeñ from the literature [ref. 77, 78], and integrates findings from the empirical studies. The thesis then analyses the remaining aspects apparent from the two surveys. These range from the identification of preferred information and support providers to factors influencing or impeding information and participation preferences. Specialist doctors were identified by both study populations as the best information providers whilst with regard to support provision views differed between the general public and health professionals. A need for better definition of supportive roles among health care workers seemed apparent. Barriers to information provision often seem related to health professional characteristics or organisational difficulties, and improvements in the latter field could well help optimising patient care. Finally, limitations of the studies are discussed, including questions of representativness of certain results and difficulties with or objections against questionnaire details by some groups of respondents.

DNA supercoiling inhibits DNA knotting.

Despite the fact that in living cells DNA molecules are long and highly crowded, they are rarely knotted. DNA knotting interferes with the normal functioning of the DNA and, therefore, molecular mechanisms evolved that maintain the knotting and catenation level below that which would be achieved if the DNA segments could pass randomly through each other. Biochemical experiments with torsionally relaxed DNA demonstrated earlier that type II DNA topoisomerases that permit inter- and intramolecular passages between segments of DNA molecules use the energy of ATP hydrolysis to select passages that lead to unknotting rather than to the formation of knots. Using numerical simulations, we identify here another mechanism by which topoisomerases can keep the knotting level low. We observe that DNA supercoiling, such as found in bacterial cells, creates a situation where intramolecular passages leading to knotting are opposed by the free-energy change connected to transitions from unknotted to knotted circular DNA molecules.

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Prime Property Institutions for a Subprime Era: Exploring Innovative Models of Residential Development and Finance

This paper breaks new ground toward contractual and institutional innovation in models of homeownership, equity building, and mortgage enforcement. Inspired by recent developments in the affordable housing sector and in other types of public financing schemes, this paper suggests extending institutional and financial strategies such as timeand place-based division of property rights, conditional subsidies, and credit mediation to alleviate the systemic risks of mortgage foreclosure. Alongside a for-profit shared equity scheme that would be led by local governments, we also outline a private market shared equity model, one of bootstrapping home buying with purchase options.

Ethics Outside, Within, or Beyond OR Models

Since ethical concerns are calling for more attention within Operational Research, we present three approaches to combine Operational Research models with ethics. Our intention is to clarify the trade-offs faced by the OR community, in particular the tension between the scientific legitimacy of OR models (ethics outside OR models) and the integration of ethics within models (ethics within OR models). Presenting and discussing an approach that combines OR models with the process of OR (ethics beyond OR models), we suggest rigorous ways to express the relation between ethics and OR models. As our work is exploratory, we are trying to avoid a dogmatic attitude and call for further research. We argue that there are interesting avenues for research at the theoretical, methodological and applied levels and that the OR community can contribute to an innovative, constructive and responsible social dialogue about its ethics.

Exploring models for the length of stay distribution.

Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) are frequently used to standardize the comparison of consumption variables, such as length of stay (LOS). In order to be reliable, this comparison must control for the presence of outliers, i.e. values far removed from the pattern set by the majority of the data. Indeed, outliers can distort the usual statistical summaries, such as means and variances. A common practice is to trim LOS values according to various empirical rules, but there is little theoretical support for choosing between alternative procedures. This pilot study explores the possibility of describing LOS distributions with parametric models which provide the necessary framework for the use of robust methods.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Communication, Coordination, and Efficiency in Evolutionary One-population Models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuring efficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

Age-specific fitness components and their temporal variation in the barn owl.

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.

Business Cycles, Unemployment Insurance, and the Calibration of Matching Models

This paper points out an empirical puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, both sticky wages and match-specific productivity shocks help the model reproduce the stylized facts: both make the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, thus making hiring more procyclical too.

TECTONICS OF THE HELVETIC NAPPE SYSTEM (W SWITZERLAND): CONTROL OF STRAIN LOCALIZATION AND BASEMENT-COVER DEFORMATION. Insights from models based on continuum mechanics

The Helvetic nappe system in Western Switzerland is a stack of fold nappes and thrust sheets em-placed at low grade metamorphism. Fold nappes and thrust sheets are also some of the most common features in orogens. Fold nappes are kilometer scaled recumbent folds which feature a weakly deformed normal limb and an intensely deformed overturned limb. Thrust sheets on the other hand are characterized by the absence of overturned limb and can be defined as almost rigid blocks of crust that are displaced sub-horizontally over up to several tens of kilometers. The Morcles and Doldenhom nappe are classic examples of fold nappes and constitute the so-called infra-Helvetic complex in Western and Central Switzerland, respectively. This complex is overridden by thrust sheets such as the Diablerets and Wildhörn nappes in Western Switzerland. One of the most famous example of thrust sheets worldwide is the Glariis thrust sheet in Central Switzerland which features over 35 kilometers of thrusting which are accommodated by a ~1 m thick shear zone. Since the works of the early Alpine geologist such as Heim and Lugeon, the knowledge of these nappes has been steadily refined and today the geometry and kinematics of the Helvetic nappe system is generally agreed upon. However, despite the extensive knowledge we have today of the kinematics of fold nappes and thrust sheets, the mechanical process leading to the emplacement of these nappe is still poorly understood. For a long time geologist were facing the so-called 'mechanical paradox' which arises from the fact that a block of rock several kilometers high and tens of kilometers long (i.e. nappe) would break internally rather than start moving on a low angle plane. Several solutions were proposed to solve this apparent paradox. Certainly the most successful is the theory of critical wedges (e.g. Chappie 1978; Dahlen, 1984). In this theory the orogen is considered as a whole and this change of scale allows thrust sheet like structures to form while being consistent with mechanics. However this theoiy is intricately linked to brittle rheology and fold nappes, which are inherently ductile structures, cannot be created in these models. When considering the problem of nappe emplacement from the perspective of ductile rheology the problem of strain localization arises. The aim of this thesis was to develop and apply models based on continuum mechanics and integrating heat transfer to understand the emplacement of nappes. Models were solved either analytically or numerically. In the first two papers of this thesis we derived a simple model which describes channel flow in a homogeneous material with temperature dependent viscosity. We applied this model to the Morcles fold nappe and to several kilometer-scale shear zones worldwide. In the last paper we zoomed out and studied the tectonics of (i) ductile and (ii) visco-elasto-plastic and temperature dependent wedges. In this last paper we focused on the relationship between basement and cover deformation. We demonstrated that during the compression of a ductile passive margin both fold nappes and thrust sheets can develop and that these apparently different structures constitute two end-members of a single structure (i.e. nappe). The transition from fold nappe to thrust sheet is to first order controlled by the deformation of the basement. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un empilement de nappes de plis et de nappes de charriage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamorphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement défor-mé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Mordes et la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glariis en Suisse centrale se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. Aujourd'hui la géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général. Malgré cela, les processus mécaniques par lesquels ces nappes se sont mises en place restent mal compris. Pendant toute la première moitié du vingtième siècle les géologues les géologues ont été confrontés au «paradoxe mécanique». Celui-ci survient du fait qu'un bloc de roche haut de plusieurs kilomètres et long de plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres (i.e., une nappe) se fracturera de l'intérieur plutôt que de se déplacer sur une surface frictionnelle. Plusieurs solutions ont été proposées pour contourner cet apparent paradoxe. La solution la plus populaire est la théorie des prismes d'accrétion critiques (par exemple Chappie, 1978 ; Dahlen, 1984). Dans le cadre de cette théorie l'orogène est considéré dans son ensemble et ce simple changement d'échelle solutionne le paradoxe mécanique (la fracturation interne de l'orogène correspond aux nappes). Cette théorie est étroitement lié à la rhéologie cassante et par conséquent des nappes de plis ne peuvent pas créer au sein d'un prisme critique. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la méca-nique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous avons dérivé un modèle d'écoulement dans un chenal d'un matériel homogène dont la viscosité dépend de la température. Nous avons appliqué ce modèle à la nappe de Mordes et à plusieurs zone de cisaillement d'échelle kilométrique provenant de différents orogènes a travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons considéré le problème à l'échelle de l'orogène et avons étudié la tectonique de prismes (i) ductiles, et (ii) visco-élasto-plastiques en considérant les transferts de chaleur. Nous avons démontré que durant la compression d'une marge passive ductile, a la fois des nappes de plis et des nappes de charriages peuvent se développer. Nous avons aussi démontré que nappes de plis et de charriages sont deux cas extrêmes d'une même structure (i.e. nappe) La transition entre le développement d'une nappe de pli ou d'une nappe de charriage est contrôlé au premier ordre par la déformation du socle. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un emblement de nappes de plis et de nappes de chaînage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamoiphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement déformé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Morcles and la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glarüs en Suisse centrale est certainement l'exemple de nappe de charriage le plus célèbre au monde. Elle se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. La géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général parmi les géologues. Au contraire les processus physiques par lesquels ces nappes sont mises en place reste mal compris. Les sédiments qui forment les nappes alpines se sont déposés à l'ère secondaire et à l'ère tertiaire sur le socle de la marge européenne qui a été étiré durant l'ouverture de l'océan Téthys. Lors de la fermeture de la Téthys, qui donnera naissance aux Alpes, le socle et les sédiments de la marge européenne ont été déformés pour former les nappes alpines. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la mécanique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous nous sommes intéressés à la localisation de la déformation à l'échelle d'une nappe. Nous avons appliqué le modèle développé à la nappe de Morcles et à plusieurs zones de cisaillement provenant de différents orogènes à travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons étudié la relation entre la déformation du socle et la défonnation des sédiments. Nous avons démontré que nappe de plis et nappes de charriages constituent les cas extrêmes d'un continuum. La transition entre nappe de pli et nappe de charriage est intrinsèquement lié à la déformation du socle sur lequel les sédiments reposent.

U-Pb zircon dating of granitoids from the Dora-Maira massif (western Italian Alps)

Among the large number of granitic intrusions within the Dora-Maira massif, several main types can be distinguished. In this study we report field, petrographic and geochemical investigations as well as zircon typology and conventional U-Pb zircon dating of plutons representing these types. The main results are as follows: the Punta Muret augengneiss is a polymetamorphosed peraluminous granite of anatectic origin. It is 457 +/- 2 Ma old and represents one of the numerous Caledonian orthogneisses of the Alpine basement. All other dated granites are of Late Variscan age. The Cavour leucogranite is an evolved granite of probably calc-alkaline affiliation, dated at 304 +/- 2 Ma. The dioritic and granodioritic facies of the Malanaggio diorite (auct.) are typical calc-alkaline rocks, whose respective age of 290 +/- 2 and 288 +/- 2 Ma overlap within errors. The Sangone and Freidour granite types have very similar alkali-calcic characteristics; their ages are poorly constrained between 267-279 and 268-283 Ma, respectively. The new data for the Dora-Maira granites are in keeping with models of the overall evolution of the Late- to Post-Variscan magmatism in the Alpine area in terms of age distribution and progressive geochemical evolution towards alkaline melts. In a first approximation, granitic rocks across the Variscan belt seem to be increasingly younger towards the internal (southern) parts of the orogen. A Carboniferous, distensive Basin and Range situation is thought to be responsible for the magmatic activity. This tectonic context is comparable to the back-are opening of an active continental margin. The observed southward migration of the magmatism could be linked to the roll-back of the subducting Paleotethyan oceanic plate along the Variscan cordillera.