Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

The paradox of transparency : short-termism and the institutionalisation of Australian capital markets

As the ultimate corporate decision-makers, directors have an impact on the investment time horizons of the corporations they govern. How they make investment decisions has been profoundly influenced by the expansion of the investment chain and the increasing concentration of share ownership in institutional hands. By examining agency in light of legal theory, we highlight that the board is in fact sui generis and not an agent of shareholders. Consequently, transparency can lead to directors being 'captured' by institutional investor objectives and timeframes, potentially to the detriment of the corporation as a whole. The counter-intuitive conclusion is that transparency may, under certain conditions, undermine good corporate governance and lead to excessive short-termism.

Randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioural therapy for coexisting depression and alcohol problems : short-term outcome

AIMS: Alcohol use disorders and depression co-occur frequently and are associated with poorer outcomes than when either condition occurs alone. The present study (Depression and Alcohol Integrated and Single-focused Interventions; DAISI) aimed to compare the effectiveness of brief intervention, single-focused and integrated psychological interventions for treatment of coexisting depression and alcohol use problems. METHODS: Participants (n = 284) with current depressive symptoms and hazardous alcohol use were assessed and randomly allocated to one of four individually delivered interventions: (i) a brief intervention only (single 90-minute session) with an integrated focus on depression and alcohol, or followed by a further nine 1-hour sessions with (ii) an alcohol focus; (iii) a depression focus; or (iv) an integrated focus. Follow-up assessments occurred 18 weeks after baseline. RESULTS: Compared with the brief intervention, 10 sessions were associated with greater reductions in average drinks per week, average drinking days per week and maximum consumption on 1 day. No difference in duration of treatment was found for depression outcomes. Compared with single-focused interventions, integrated treatment was associated with a greater reduction in drinking days and level of depression. For men, the alcohol-focused rather than depression-focused intervention was associated with a greater reduction in average drinks per day and drinks per week and an increased level of general functioning. Women showed greater improvements on each of these variables when they received depression-focused rather than alcohol-focused treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated treatment may be superior to single-focused treatment for coexisting depression and alcohol problems, at least in the short term. Gender differences between single-focused depression and alcohol treatments warrant further study.

Industry short reports : School of Urban Development, QUT Jan, 2010

Management and staff of the spatial science program at QUT. Student numbers discussion, Alumni News, Staff and Laboratories moving, Work Integrated Learning in 2010.

Campylobacter jejuni and campylobacter coli genotyping by high-resolution melting analysis of a flaA fragment

The highly variable flagellin-encoding flaA gene has long been used for genotyping Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli. High-resolution melting (HRM) analysis is emerging as an efficient and robust method for discriminating DNA sequence variants. The objective of this study was to apply HRM analysis to flaA-based genotyping. The initial aim was to identify a suitable flaA fragment. It was found that the PCR primers commonly used to amplify the flaA short variable repeat (SVR) yielded a mixed PCR product unsuitable for HRM analysis. However, a PCR primer set composed of the upstream primer used to amplify the fragment used for flaA restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and the downstream primer used for flaA SVR amplification generated a very pure PCR product, and this primer set was used for the remainder of the study. Eighty-seven C. jejuni and 15 C. coli isolates were analyzed by flaA HRM and also partial flaA sequencing. There were 47 flaA sequence variants, and all were resolved by HRM analysis. The isolates used had previously also been genotyped using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), binary markers, CRISPR HRM, and flaA RFLP. flaAHRManalysis provided resolving power multiplicative to the SNPs, binary markers, and CRISPR HRM and largely concordant with the flaA RFLP. It was concluded that HRM analysis is a promising approach to genotyping based on highly variable genes.

A short-term evaluation of a school-based early adolescent injury prevention program

This paper reports on the development of a school-based intervention to reduce risk-taking and associated injuries. There is limited but important evidence that intervention design should ensure participation does not lead to an increase in target risk behaviors with some studies in alcohol and drug prevention finding unexpected negative effects. The short-term evaluation of Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) examined change in interpersonal violence, alcohol and transport-related risks. Intervention (n = 360) and comparison (n = 180) students were surveyed pre/post-intervention. A qualitative analysis based on focus groups (70 students) explored experiences of change. Findings indicate significant positive changes reinforced by students’ reports. A decrease in reported risk-taking for the intervention group and an increase in the comparison group were observed. These findings endorse SPIY as a useful curriculum approach to reducing injuries and lend support to the future conduct of a long-term outcome evaluation.

Characterization of electron trapping in dye-sensitized solar cells by near-IR transmittance measurements

In situ near-IR transmittance measurements have been used to characterize the density of trapped electrons in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs). Measurements have been made under a range experimental conditions including during open circuit photovoltage decay and during recording of the IV characteristic. The optical cross section of electrons at 940 nm was determined by relating the IR absorbance to the density of trapped electrons measured by charge extraction. The value, σn = 5.4 × 10-18 cm2, was used to compare the trapped electron densities in illuminated DSCs under open and short circuit conditions in order to quantify the difference in the quasi Fermi level, nEF. It was found that nEF for the cells studied was 250 meV over wide range of illuminat on intensities. IR transmittance measurements have also been used to quantify shifts in conduction band energy associated with dye adsorption.

A comparison of different methods to determine diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells

A new steady state method for determination of the electron diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is described and illustrated with data obtained using cells containing three different types of electrolyte. The method is based on using near-IR absorbance methods to establish pairs of illumination intensity for which the total number of trapped electrons is the same at open circuit (where all electrons are lost by interfacial electron transfer) as at short circuit (where the majority of electrons are collected at the contact). Electron diffusion length values obtained by this method are compared with values derived by intensity modulated methods and by impedance measurements under illumination. The results indicate that the values of electron diffusion length derived from the steady state measurements are consistently lower than the values obtained by the non steady-state methods. For all three electrolytes used in the study, the electron diffusion length was sufficiently high to guarantee electron collection efficiencies greater than 90%. Measurement of the trap distributions by near-IR absorption confirmed earlier observations of much higher electron trap densities for electrolytes containing Li+ ions. It is suggested that the electron trap distributions may not be intrinsic properties of the TiO2 nanoparticles, but may be associated with electron-ion interactions.

Listening to late discovery adoption and donor offspring stories : adoption, ethics and implications for contemporary donor insemination practices

For most of the 20th Century a ‘closed’ system of adoption was practised throughout Australia and other modern Western societies. This ‘closed’ system was characterised by sealed records; amended birth certificates to conceal the adoption, and prohibited contact with all biological family. Despite claims that these measures protected these children from the taint of illegitimacy the central motivations were far more complex, involving a desire to protect couples from the stigma of infertility and to provide a socially acceptable family structure (Triseliotis, Feast, & Kyle, 2005; Marshall & McDonald, 2001). From the 1960s significant evidence began to emerge that many adopted children and adults were experiencing higher incidences of psychological difficulties, characterised by problems with psychological adjustment, building self-esteem and forming a secure personal identity. These difficulties became grouped under the term ‘genealogical bewilderment’. As a result, new policies and practices were introduced to try to place the best interests of the child at the forefront. These changes reflected new understandings of adoption; as not only an individual process but also as a social and relational process that continues throughout life. Secrecy and the withholding of birth information are now prohibited in the overwhelming majority of all domestic adoptions processed in Australia (Marshall & McDonald, 2001). One little known consequence of this ‘closed’ system of adoption was the significant number of children who were never told of their adoptive status. As a consequence, some have discovered or had this information disclosed to them, as adults. The first study that looked at the late discovery of genetic origins experiences was conducted by the Post Adoption Resource Centre in New South Wales in 1999. This report found that the participants in their study expressed feelings of disbelief, confusion, anger, sorrow and loss. Further, the majority of participants continued to struggle with issues arising from this intentional concealment of their genetic origins (Perl & Markham, 1999). A second and more recent study (Passmore, Feeney & Foulstone, 2007) looked at the issue of secrecy in adoptive families as part of a broader study of 144 adult adoptees. This study found that secrecy and/or lies or misinformation on the part of adoptive parents had negative effects on both personal identity and relationships with others. The authors noted that those adoptees who found out about their adoption as adults were ‘especially likely to feel a sense of betrayal’ (p.4). Over recent years, stories of secrecy and late discovery have also started to emerge from sperm donor conceived adults (Spencer, 2007; Turner & Coyle, 2000). Current research evidence shows that although a majority of couples during the donor assisted conception process indicate that they intend to tell the offspring about their origins, as many as two-thirds or more of couples continue to withhold this information from their children (Akker, 2006; Gottlieb, A. McWhinnie, 2001; Salter-Ling, Hunter, & Glover, 2001). Why do they keep this secret? Infertility involves a range of complex factors that are often left unresolved or poorly understood by those choosing insemination by donor as a form of family building (Schaffer, J. A., & Diamond, R., 1993). These factors may only impact after the child is born, when resemblance talk becomes most pronounced. Resemblance talk is an accepted form of public discourse and a social convention that legitimises the child as part of the family and is part of the process of constructing the child’s identity within the family. Couples tend to become focused on resemblance as this is where they feel most vulnerable, and the lack of resemblance to the parenting father may trigger his sense of loss (Becker, Butler, & Nachtigall, 2005).

Short-termism : challenges and resolutions

The global financial crisis has highlighted the vulnerability of our economy to systemic risks. While its causes are numerous and relate to complex problems deeply embedded in capital markets, ‘short-termism’ (excessive focus on short-term outcomes at the expense of long-term wealth creation and sustainability) has frequently been flagged as a major contributor to this crisis. Although short-termism is not new, the global financial crisis has highlighted the presence of short-termism among institutional investors, and the failure of global markets and regulators to deal with such perverse and destructive behaviour (Guyatt 2009). Solutions are clearly needed. Although there is a body of research that provides evidence of the presence of short-termism in capital markets and the consequences of short-term decision-making on the financial wellbeing of both individuals and organisations, there is no consensus on mitigating solutions to short-termism. What emerges from the literature is the need to take a broad interdisciplinary perspective in seeking solutions to the problem.

Associations among body size dissatisfaction, perceived dietary control, and diet history in African American and European American women

European American (EA) women report greater body dissatisfaction and less dietary control than do African American (AA) women. This study investigated whether ethnic differences in dieting history contributed to differences in body dissatisfaction and dietary control, or to differential changes that may occur during weight loss and regain. Eighty-nine EA and AA women underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry to measure body composition and completed questionnaires to assess body dissatisfaction and dietary control before, after, and one year following, a controlled weight-loss intervention. While EA women reported a more extensive dieting history than AA women, this difference did not contribute to ethnic differences in body dissatisfaction and perceived dietary control. During weight loss, body satisfaction improved more for AA women, and during weight regain, dietary self-efficacy worsened to a greater degree for EA women. Ethnic differences in dieting history did not contribute significantly to these differential changes. Although ethnic differences in body image and dietary control are evident prior to weight loss, and some change differentially by ethnic group during weight loss and regain, differences in dieting history do not contribute significantly to ethnic differences in body image and dietary control.

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Singing the blues : developing a cabaret performance on depression

This paper will discuss the researcher’s practice-led study within the field of contemporary cabaret performance. The project is focussed on transforming personal stories of depression into cabaret with the aims of raising community awareness of the issue. In the process, the research aims to explore innovations within the field of cabaret. Interviews conducted with individuals who have suffered from depression are being used as ‘inspiration points’ for the development of the performance. This paper will provide a short contextual review for the project and introduce the researcher’s creative process. For the purposes of this research, cabaret has been defined as performances of songs and dialogue in direct-address with the audience. Cabaret performances merge ‘high’ and ‘low’ art forms (often including satirical comedy), and are generally performed in small-scale venues. The accessible, intimate and light-hearted nature of cabaret offers unique opportunities for the discussion of social issues.