An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the US agricultural sector

When asking the question, ``How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?'' Sarewitz and Pielke Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of ``reconciling supply and demand of science'' as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the ``demand'', along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing ``optimal benefit'' to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding the barriers to the implementation of precision agriculture in the central region

There is an increasing requirement for more astute land resource management through efficiencies in agricultural inputs in a sugar cane production system. A precision agriculture (PA) approach can provide a pathway for a sustainable sugarcane production system. One of the impediments to the adoption of PA practices is access to paddock-scale mapping layers displaying variability in soil properties, crop growth and surface drainage. Variable rate application (VRA) of nutrients is an important component of PA. However, agronomic expertise within PA systems has fallen well behind significant advances in PA technologies. Generally, advisers in the sugar industry have a poor comprehension of the complex interaction of variables that contribute to within-paddock variations in crop growth. This is regarded as a significant impediment to the progression of PA in sugarcane and is one of the reasons for the poor adoption of VRA of nutrients in a PA approach to improved sugar cane production. This project therefore has established a number of key objectives which will contribute to the adoption of PA and the staged progression of VRA supported by relevant and practical agronomic expertise. These objectives include provision of base soils attribute mapping that can be determined using Veris 3100 Electrical Conductivity (EC) and digital elevation datasets using GPS mapping technology for a large sector of the central cane growing region using analysis of archived satellite imagery to determine the location and stability of yield patterns over time and in varying seasonal conditions on selected project study sites. They also include the stablishment of experiments to determine appropriate VRA nitrogen rates on various soil types subjected to extended anaerobic conditions, and the establishment of trials to determine nitrogen rates applicable to a declining yield potential associated with the aging of ratoons in the crop cycle. Preliminary analysis of archived yield estimation data indicates that yield patterns remain relatively stable overtime. Results also indicate the where there is considerable variability in EC values there is also significant variation in yield.

The role of institutions as actors influencing Uganda’s cassava sector

We aim at mapping out a detailed framework that reveals the proportionate flow of cassava and its products along the value chain (VC). Furthermore, we aim at establishing the role of institutions and the linkages between institutions and other VC actors that influence the cassava VC in Uganda. We use both primary and secondary data obtained from four regions in Uganda. Results show that farmers, processors, transporters, traders, consumers and institutions are the major actors. There are four categories of institutions, viz, government, non-government, community based organisations and international agencies. Roles performed by institutions include: development and enforcement of policies, Research and Development (R&D), capacity building, and creation of market access linkages for cassava and its products. Findings reveal that there is no clear nexus and no coordination among farmers/producers, processors, traders, transporters and consumers. However, institutions are well coordinated and play various roles along the VC to influence the dynamics of actors. Policy-wise it is important to establish strong private-public partnerships to bridge the impaired linkages between the actors (farmers/producers, processors, traders, transporters, and consumers) and institutions. Strong partnerships are envisaged to reduce the associated transaction costs amongst the actors.

The dynamics of specialist development banking: the case of the agriculture development bank of Trinidad and Tobago

Includes bibliography

Economic indicators of the farm sector.

Title from cover.

Economic indicators of the farm sector.

"ECIFS."

Exploring clusters and their value as types of business networks in the agricultural sector

The undisputed link of the agricultural sector with regional economies, along with the increased competition, fosters agri-business companies to rethink their business philosophy and to transform from isolated firms to members of more extended business formations. The paper examines a particular type of business network, the cluster. It focuses on the concept of clusters and on cluster-based strategies in the context of agriculture. In particular, the paper explores the value of clusters by taking into consideration the particularities of the agricultural sector. Potential benefits and constraints of agri-business cluster development are also presented.

Improving Employment and Income through Development of Egypt’s Aquaculture Sector (IEIDEAS) project

The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)-funded Improving Employment and Income through Development of Egypt’s Aquaculture Sector (IEIDEAS) project was implemented by WorldFish in partnership with CARE Egypt and the Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation from 2011 to 2014 and later extended to November 2015. The project focused on four governorates with significant aquaculture production (Kafr El Sheikh, Behera, Sharkia and Fayoum) and one governorate (El Mineya), where aquaculture was a new activity. The project was based on a value chain analysis conducted by WorldFish in September 2011 that identified the aquaculture value chain as a significant employer, particularly in rural areas. The analysis suggested that there was scope to increase employment of youth and women in the aquaculture sector The main objective was to increase aquaculture production by 10% and create 10,000 jobs. Other objectives included improving profitability for existing producers, securing employment for women fish retailers, expanding aquaculture in El Mineya and improving the policy environment for aquaculture.

Innovative and entrepreneurial activity in the public sector : the changing face of public sector institutions

This paper investigates the elements which support innovative and entrepreneurial activity in New Zealand’s state owned enterprises (SOEs). An inductive case study design, involving interview data, textual analysis, and observation, was applied to three SOEs. Findings reveal that those aspects typically associated with entrepreneurship, such as innovation, risk acceptance, pro-activeness and growth, are often supported by a number of unexpected elements within the public sector. These elements include culture, branding, operational excellence, cost efficiency, and knowledge transfer. The implications are twofold. First, that innovative and entrepreneurial activity in the public sector can go beyond policy-making, with SOEs representing an important policy decision and sector of the New Zealand Government. And second, that the impact of several SOEs on international markets suggests competition on the global stage will increasingly come from both public and private sector organizations.

Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Tropical and Temperae Agriculture: The Need for a Full-Cost Accounting of Global Warming Potentials

Agriculture's contribution to radiative forcing is principally through its historical release of carbon in soil and vegetation to the atmosphere and through its contemporary release of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CHM4). The sequestration of soil carbon in soils now depleted in soil organic matter is a well-known strategy for mitigating the buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere. Less well-recognized are other mitigation potentials. A full-cost accounting of the effects of agriculture on greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to quantify the relative importance of all mitigation options. Such an analysis shows nitrogen fertilizer, agricultural liming, fuel use, N2O emissions, and CH4 fluxes to have additional significant potential for mitigation. By evaluating all sources in terms of their global warming potential it becomes possible to directly evaluate greenhouse policy options for agriculture. A comparison of temperate and tropical systems illustrates some of these options.

Strengthening the role of the adult education sector in training workers for the digital content industries in Australia and Singapore

In 2009, QUT’s Office of Research and the Institute for Adult Learning Singapore funded a six-month pilot project that represented the first stage of a larger international comparative study. The study is the first of its kind to investigate to what extent and how digital content workers’ learning needs are being met by adult education and training in Australia and Singapore. The pilot project involved consolidating key theoretical literature, studies, policies, programs and statistical data relevant to the digital content industries in Australia and Singapore. This had not been done before, and represented new knowledge generation. Digital content workers include professionals within and beyond the creative industries as follows: Visual effects and animation (including virtual reality and 3D products); Interactive multimedia (e.g. websites, CD-ROMs) and software development; Computer and online games; and Digital film & TV production and film & TV post-production. In the last decade, the digital content industries have been recognised as an industry sector of strong and increasing significance. The project compared Australia and Singapore on aspects of the digital content industries’ labour market, skill requirements, human capital challenges, the role of adult education in building a workforce for the digital content industries, and innovation policies. The consolidated report generated from the project formed the basis of the proposal for an ARC Linkage Project application submitted in the May 2010 round.

Beyond the hospital door : a retrospective, cohort study of associations between birthing in the public or private sector and women’s postpartum care

Background In Australia, maternity care is available through universal coverage and a parallel, competitive private health insurance system. Differences between sectors in antenatal and intrapartum care and associated outcomes are well documented but few studies have investigated differences in postpartum care following hospital discharge and their impact on maternal satisfaction and confidence. Methods Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia from February to May 2010 were mailed a self-report survey 4 months postpartum. Regression analysis was used to determine associations between sector of birth and postpartum care, and whether postpartum care experiences explained sector differences in postpartum well-being (satisfaction, parenting confidence and feeling depressed). Results Women who birthed in the public sector had higher odds of health professional contact in the first 10 days post-discharge and satisfaction with the amount of postpartum care. After adjusting for demographic and postpartum contact variables, sector of birth no longer had an impact on satisfaction (AOR 0.95, 99% CI 0.78-1.31), but any form of health professional contact did. Women who had a care provider’s 24 hour contact details had higher odds of being satisfied (AOR 3.64, 95% CI 3.00-4.42) and confident (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08- 1.65). Conclusion Women who birthed in the public sector appeared more satisfied because they had higher odds of receiving contact from a health professional within 10 days post-discharge. All women should have an opportunity to speak to and/or see a doctor, midwife or nurse in the first 10 days at home, and the details of a person they can contact 24 hours a day.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.