Social dynamics of Water Quality, 2004

Water fact sheet for Iowa Department of Natural Resources and the Geological Bureau.

The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?

We investigate the relationship between monetary policy and inflation dynamics in theUS using a medium scale structural model. The specification is estimated with Bayesiantechniques and fits the data reasonably well. Policy shocks account for a part of the declinein inflation volatility; they have been less effective in triggering inflation responses overtime and qualitatively account for the rise and fall in the level of inflation. A number ofstructural parameter variations contribute to these patterns.

First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Rules or consequences? The role of ethical mindsets in moral dynamics

Recent research on the dynamics of moral behavior has documented two contrastingphenomena - moral consistency and moral balancing. Moral balancing refers to thephenomenon whereby behaving (un)ethically decreases the likelihood of doing so againat a later time. Moral consistency describes the opposite pattern - engaging in(un)ethical behavior increases the likelihood of doing so later on. Three studies supportthe hypothesis that individuals' ethical mindset (i.e., outcome-based versus rule-based)moderates the impact of an initial (un)ethical act on the likelihood of behaving ethicallyin a subsequent occasion. More specifically, an outcome-based mindset facilitates moralbalancing and a rule-based mindset facilitates moral consistency.

The dynamics of research networks in Brite-Euram

Network formation within the BRITE--EURAM program is investigated.Wedescribe the role of the hub of the network, which is defined as the setofmain contractors that account for most of the participations. We studytheeffects that the conflict of objectives within European research fundingbetween pre-competitive research vs. European cohesion has on theformationof networks and on the relationship between different partnersof the network. \\A panel data set is constructed including the second and third frameworkof theBrite--Euram program. A model of joint production of research results isusedto test for changes in the behavior of partners within the twoframeworks. \\The main findings are that participations are very concentrated, that isasmall group of institutions account for most of the participations, butgoingfrom the second to the third framework the presence of subcontractorsand singleparticipants increases substantially. This result is reinforced by the factthat main contractors receive smaller spill-ins within networks, butspill-insincrease from the second to the third framework.

Stochastic uncoupled dynamics and Nash equilibrium

In this paper we consider dynamic processes, in repeated games, that are subject to the natural informational restriction of uncoupledness. We study the almost sure convergence to Nash equilibria, and present a number of possibility and impossibility results. Basically, we show that if in addition to random moves some recall is introduced, then successful search procedures that are uncoupled can be devised. In particular, to get almost sure convergence to pure Nash equilibria when these exist, it su±ces to recall the last two periods of play.

Dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis, related with temperature, density and concentration of insecticide

The dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis has been related with the temperature, density and concentration of the insecticide. A mathematical model for biological control of Aedes aegypti with Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis (Bti) was constructed by using data from the literature regarding the biology of the vector. The life cycle was described by differential equations. Lethal concentrations (LC50 and LC95) of Bti were determined in the laboratory under different experimental conditions. Temperature, colony, larvae density and bioinsecticide concentration presented marked differences in the analysis of the whole set of variables; although when analyzed individually, only the temperature and concentration showed changes. The simulations indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito population, nonetheless, faster growth of populations is reached at higher temperatures. As conclusion, the model suggests the use of integrated control strategies for immature and adult mosquitoes in order to achieve a reduction of Aedes aegypti.

Impact and cost of a 2-week community-based screening and awareness program for diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors in a Swiss canton.

BACKGROUND: Community-based diabetes screening programs can help sensitize the population and identify new cases. However, the impact of such programs is rarely assessed in high-income countries, where concurrent health information and screening opportunities are common place. INTERVENTION AND METHODS: A 2-week screening and awareness campaign was organized as part of a new diabetes program in the canton of Vaud (population of 697,000) in Switzerland. Screening was performed without appointment in 190 out of 244 pharmacies in the canton at the subsidized cost of 10 Swiss Francs per participant. Screening included questions on risk behaviors, measurement of body mass index, blood pressure, blood cholesterol, random blood glucose (RBG), and A1c if RBG was >/=7.0 mmol/L. A mass media campaign promoting physical activity and a healthy diet was channeled through several media, eg, 165 spots on radio, billboards in 250 public places, flyers in 360 public transport vehicles, and a dozen articles in several newspapers. A telephone survey in a representative sample of the population of the canton was performed after the campaign to evaluate the program. RESULTS: A total of 4222 participants (0.76% of all persons aged >/=18 years) underwent the screening program (median age: 53 years, 63% females). Among participants not treated for diabetes, 3.7% had RBG >/= 7.8 mmol/L and 1.8% had both RBG >/= 7.0 mmol/L and A1c >/= 6.5. Untreated blood pressure >/=140/90 mmHg and/or untreated cholesterol >/=5.2 mmol/L were found in 50.5% of participants. One or several treated or untreated modifiable risk factors were found in 78% of participants. The telephone survey showed that 53% of all adults in the canton were sensitized by the campaign. Excluding fees paid by the participants, the program incurred a cost of CHF 330,600. CONCLUSION: A community-based screening program had low efficiency for detecting new cases of diabetes, but it identified large numbers of persons with elevated other cardiovascular risk factors. Our findings suggest the convenience of A1c for mass screening of diabetes, the usefulness of extending diabetes screening to other cardiovascular risk factors, and the importance of a robust background communication campaign.